Version: 4 (current) | Updated: 11/13/2025, 6:19:15 AM
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**File metadata**
@file_pinax:document {title: "Chartbook Newsletter #27: Gilets Jaunes", creator: @adam_tooze, created: @date_2021_07_18, language: "en", subjects: ["Gilets Jaunes","Yellow Vests","French protests","Carbon pricing","Climate policy","Economic inequality","Political unrest","Emmanuel Macron","French politics","Energy transition"]}
@file_pinax -> documents -> @chartbook_newsletter_27:document {title: "Chartbook Newsletter #27 Gilets Jaunes", subtitle: "A specter haunting Europe"}
@file_38814232_chartbook_newsletter_27_gilets_jaunes:document {title: "Chartbook Newsletter #27 Gilets Jaunes"}
@file_38814232_chartbook_newsletter_27_gilets_jaunes -> documents -> @chartbook_newsletter_27
@file_39724480_adam_tooze_chartbook_31_the_mirage:document {title: "Adam Tooze Chartbook #31 The Mirage of Carbon Markets?", subtitle: "Deciphering the trans‑Atlantic divergence over climate policy"}
@file_39724480_adam_tooze_chartbook_31_the_mirage -> documents -> @chartbook_newsletter_31:document {title: "Chartbook #31 The Mirage of Carbon Markets?"}
@file_39769151_crisis_management_and_experimentalism:document {title: "Crisis Management and Experimentalism"}
@file_39769151_crisis_management_and_experimentalism -> documents -> @experimentalist_governance:concept
**Key persons & organisations**
@adam_tooze:person {full_name: "Adam Tooze"}
@pascal_canfin:person {role: "Chair, European Parliament Environment Committee"}
@frans_timmermans:person {role: "European Commission Vice‑President for the European Green Deal"}
@john_kerry:person {role: "U.S. Climate Envoy"}
@janet_yellen:person {role: "U.S. Treasury Secretary"}
@joe_stiglitz:person {role: "Nobel‑winning economist"}
@danny_cullenward:person {full_name: "Danny Cullenward"}
@david_g_victor:person {full_name: "David G. Victor"}
@andreas_malm:person {full_name: "Andreas Malm"}
@john_dewey:person {role: "Pragmatist philosopher"}
@european_commission:organization
@european_parliament:organization
@eu:organization {member_of: @europe}
@united_states:organization {member_of: @north_america}
@france:organization {member_of: @europe}
@germany:organization {member_of: @europe}
@china:organization {member_of: @asia}
@united_nations:organization
**Core concepts & policies**
@carbon_pricing:concept {methods: ["carbon tax","cap‑and‑trade"]}
@carbon_tax:concept {description: "Direct tax on CO₂ emissions"}
@cap_and_trade:concept {description: "Permit‑based emissions trading system"}
@fit_for_55:document {title: "Fit for 55", proposer: @european_commission, announced: @date_2021_07_14}
@eu_ets:organization {type: "EU Emissions Trading System", start_year: @date_2005, price_per_ton_eur: 50, scope: ["petrol","diesel","gas","oil heating"]}
@social_climate_fund:document {proposed_eur: 72.2, matched_eur: 144.4, purpose: "Mitigate regressive impact of carbon pricing"}
@experimentalist_governance:concept {description: "Bottom‑up, problem‑solving approach that combines price incentives with local experimentation and ‘penalty‑default’ mechanisms"}
@penalty_default:concept {description: "Penalty for laggards that destabilises the status‑quo"}
@bottom_up_approach:concept {description: "Policy built from national and sectoral experiments feeding into global goals"}
@top_down_consensus:concept {description: "Traditional global‑diplomacy model based on negotiated agreements"}
@paris_agreement:document {type: "International climate treaty", year: @date_2015}
@montreal_protocol:document {type: "International ozone‑depletion treaty", year: @date_1987}
@making_climate_policy_work:document {title: "Making Climate Policy Work", authors: [@danny_cullenward,@david_g_victor], published: @date_2021}
@white_skin_black_fuel:document {title: "White Skin, Black Fuel", authors: [@andreas_malm,@zetkin_collective], published: @date_2021}
**Events**
@gilets_jaunes_protest:event {name: "Gilets Jaunes protests (2018‑2019)", location: @france, peak_date: @date_2018_11_17, participants_estimated: 300000, casualties: {police_injured: 1797, protesters_injured: 2448, eyes_lost: 24, hands_lost: 5, head_injuries: 315}}
@fuel_tax_increase:event {description: "French fuel tax raised from €44.60 / t to €55 / t", effective: @date_2019_01_01}
@citizens_assembly_for_the_climate:event {date: @date_2020_06, output: @climate_measures_report:document {measures_count: 149}}
@policy_backtrack:event {description: "Macron government backed away from fuel‑tax escalation", date: @date_2019_??}
**Key relationships**
@fuel_tax_increase -> triggered -> @gilets_jaunes_protest {when: @date_2018_11_17}
@fit_for_55 -> proposes -> @eu_ets {extension_to: ["petrol","diesel","gas","oil heating"]}
@eu_ets -> tightened -> @certificate_supply {result: "higher prices"}
@eu_ets -> price_per_ton_eur -> 50 {when: @date_2021}
@fit_for_55 -> includes -> @social_climate_fund
@social_climate_fund -> aims_to -> mitigate -> @regressive_impact_of_carbon_pricing:concept
@regressive_impact_of_carbon_pricing -> affects -> @lower_income_households:group
@cullenward_victor_book:document -> critiques -> @carbon_pricing
@cullenward_victor_book -> critiques -> @cap_and_trade
@cullenward_victor_book -> supports -> @industrial_policy:concept
@cullenward_victor_book -> supports -> @sectoral_approach:concept
@cullenward_victor_book -> argues -> @carbon_pricing_is_mirage:concept
@cullenward_victor_book -> mentions -> @experimentalist_governance
@cullenward_victor_book -> mentions -> @penalty_default
@cullenward_victor_book -> mentions -> @bottom_up_approach
@cullenward_victor_book -> mentions -> @top_down_consensus
@cullenward_victor_book -> mentions -> @paris_agreement
@white_skin_black_fuel -> critiques -> @carbon_pricing
@white_skin_black_fuel -> aligns_with -> @cullenward_victor_book
@experimentalist_governance -> uses -> @penalty_default
@experimentalist_governance -> combines -> @price_incentives (from @carbon_pricing) and @discursive_coordination (standards‑setting, stakeholder deliberation)
@experimentalist_governance -> opposes -> @top_down_consensus
@experimentalist_governance -> draws_on -> @john_dewey
@paris_agreement -> sets_goals -> @climate_goals:concept
@paris_agreement -> employs -> @bottom_up_approach
@cap_and_trade -> provides -> @static_efficiency:concept
@cap_and_trade -> fails_to_deliver -> @dynamic_efficiency:concept
@carbon_pricing -> includes -> @carbon_tax and @cap_and_trade
@carbon_tax -> described_as -> "simple, direct means of shifting resource allocations"
@fit_for_55 -> aims_to -> reduce_emissions_by_55%_by_2030:concept
@fit_for_55 -> includes -> ban_new_internal_combustion_engine_cars_by_2030s:concept
@frans_timmermans -> advocates -> @carbon_border_adjustment:concept
@carbon_border_adjustment -> aims_to -> tax_high‑carbon_imports
@european_commission -> uses -> @gilets_jaunes_protest as “political folklore” (boogeyman) in climate debates
@chartbook_newsletter_27 -> discusses -> @gilets_jaunes_protest
@chartbook_newsletter_27 -> analyses -> @fuel_tax_increase
@chartbook_newsletter_27 -> analyses -> @fit_for_55
@chartbook_newsletter_27 -> analyses -> @inequality:concept
@chartbook_newsletter_27 -> analyses -> @political_unrest:concept
@chartbook_newsletter_31 -> discusses -> @trans_atlantic_divergence:concept (EU vs US on climate policy)
@chartbook_newsletter_31 -> discusses -> @experimentalist_governance
@chartbook_newsletter_31 -> discusses -> @industrial_policy
@chartbook_newsletter_31 -> discusses -> @sectoral_approach
**Sector‑specific focus (from Cullenward & Victor)**
@power_generation:concept -> targeted_by -> @carbon_pricing
@industry:concept -> targeted_by -> @industrial_policy
@transport:concept -> affected_by -> @fuel_tax_increase
@buildings:concept -> targeted_by -> @industrial_policy
@agriculture:concept -> targeted_by -> @industrial_policy
**Other notable references**
@john_kerry -> participated_in -> @g20_environment_ministers_meeting
@janet_yellen -> supports -> @carbon_pricing
@joe_stiglitz -> long‑time supporter of -> @carbon_pricing
@greenpeace_expose -> reveals -> @exxon_mobil:organization {position: "backed carbon pricing but expected it not to be enacted"}
**Summary of the knowledge graph**
- The **Gilets Jaunes** protests were sparked by a **fuel‑tax increase** and highlighted **economic inequality**, **political unrest**, and the **regressive impact** of **carbon pricing**.
- The EU’s **Fit for 55** package extends the **EU ETS** to transport fuels and proposes a **Social Climate Fund** to offset regressive effects.
- **Cullenward & Victor** (in *Making Climate Policy Work*) argue that **carbon pricing** is a **mirage**, critique **cap‑and‑trade**, and champion **industrial‑policy**, **sectoral approaches**, and **experimentalist governance** (bottom‑up, penalty‑default mechanisms).
- **Andreas Malm** and the **Zetkin Collective** (in *White Skin, Black Fuel*) echo this critique.
- **Experimentalist governance** draws on **John Dewey** and combines **price incentives** with **local experimentation**, **discursive coordination**, and **penalty defaults** to achieve **dynamic efficiency**.
- The trans‑Atlantic split (**EU** supportive of **carbon pricing**, **US** skeptical) is a central theme of **Chartbook #31**.
All entities are defined once; common‑knowledge entities (e.g., @france, @europe, @united_states, @emmanuel_macron) are referenced without re‑definition.<!--
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<p><strong>This week’s Newsletter is about the storm brewing over Europe’s environmental policy, carbon prices and the long shadow thrown by the 2018/9 Yellow Vest protests. Who were the protestors and their supporters? What triggered the protests? How is this episode reverberating through climate politics in Europe three years later? … but first, a quick personal note. </strong></p><p><strong>You are invited to become not just a subscriber to Chartbook Newsletter, but a supporter of the project. </strong></p><p>Chartbook Newsletter is a blast to write. But it is also very time-consuming. To see where it should fit in my portfolio of other activities, I am launching a paid subscription model.</p><p>Don’t panic. If you like the newsletter but can’t afford a paid subscription, I get it. You don’t have to do anything. You will continue to receive Chartbook, as before. But, if you can afford it, if you think the content is valuable, if you would like to support the mission, or simply buy me the equivalent of a cup of coffee once a month, there are three options:</p><ol><li><p>The <strong>annual subscription: $50</strong></p></li><li><p>The <strong>standard monthly subscription: $5 monthly -</strong> which gives you a bit more flexibility.</p></li><li><p><strong>Founders club:</strong> If you really love Chartbook Newsletter, or read it in a professional setting in which you regularly pay for subscriptions, please consider signing up for the <strong>Founders Club</strong> with a recommended contribution of $120 annually, or another amount at your discretion. Good karma guaranteed.</p></li></ol><p>To support the project please click here:</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{"url":"https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe now","action":null,"class":null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p>What are you contributing to? The continuation of Chartbook Newsletter as you already know it. A bunch of great content c. 40 post per annum. A list of forthcoming projects and a full-length appeal can be found in the <a href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbooks-new-era-pitching-in">last mailing</a>.</p><p>A HUGE thank you to everyone who has already hit the subscribe button. Your support is a great encouragement. </p><p>******************************************</p><p>Down to business …. In 2021 a specter is haunting Europe - the specter of the Gilet Jaunes - the Yellow Vest protest movement that disrupted French politics in 2018/9.</p><p>The Gilet Jaunes are not back in person. But their phantom stalks the corridors of power. Their return has been provoked by the announcement on Wednesday 14 July of <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_21_3541">“Fit for 55”</a>, the EU’s ambitious package of climate policies. A key part of the package is to extend Europe’s Emissions Trading System (ETS) to petrol and diesel fuel as well as to gas and oil for domestic heating. The ETS is a cap and trade system in which permits to emit CO2 are traded between polluters. The idea is to set a cap on the quantity of emissions and then to force emitters to bid up the price. The smaller the “pollution budget” the higher the price and the greater the incentive to find cleaner ways of doing things. The ETS has been operating since 2005. Driven by the expectation that Europe is getting serious about the climate, permit prices have risen above 50 euros per ton of carbon. </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!q1V2!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5c6041fe-ba19-4acd-8ad8-a6b9bb78d427_1642x966.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!q1V2!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5c6041fe-ba19-4acd-8ad8-a6b9bb78d427_1642x966.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!q1V2!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5c6041fe-ba19-4acd-8ad8-a6b9bb78d427_1642x966.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!q1V2!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5c6041fe-ba19-4acd-8ad8-a6b9bb78d427_1642x966.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!q1V2!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5c6041fe-ba19-4acd-8ad8-a6b9bb78d427_1642x966.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/5c6041fe-ba19-4acd-8ad8-a6b9bb78d427_1642x966.png" width="1456" height="857" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/5c6041fe-ba19-4acd-8ad8-a6b9bb78d427_1642x966.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":857,"width":1456,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":205612,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!q1V2!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5c6041fe-ba19-4acd-8ad8-a6b9bb78d427_1642x966.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!q1V2!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5c6041fe-ba19-4acd-8ad8-a6b9bb78d427_1642x966.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!q1V2!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5c6041fe-ba19-4acd-8ad8-a6b9bb78d427_1642x966.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!q1V2!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5c6041fe-ba19-4acd-8ad8-a6b9bb78d427_1642x966.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source: <a href="https://group.vattenfall.com/press-and-media/newsroom/2021/the-eu-emissions-trading-system-shows-its-muscles">Vattenfal</a>l</p><p>So far, ETS pricing has been applied to electricity generation and industry, sectors that are “behind the scenes”. The drama right now, is that Brussels is proposing to extend a similar system to petrol at the pump and to domestic heating bills. That step was taken in Germany in 2020. So far there have been no major ructions. The German tax is <a href="https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/germanys-planned-carbon-pricing-system-transport-and-buildings">modest</a> - 25 euros per tonne, which adds 6-7 cents to the price for a liter of petrol or diesel. Exactly how quickly this will escalate is a matter of hot debate in Germany’s election, but the principle is accepted. </p><p>The reason why it is so crucial to raise some kind of tax on petrol and diesel is that since 1990, transport is the one sector of European emissions that has actually risen, by c. 33 percent. If Europe is to reach its target of 55 % emissions reductions by 2030 that has to be reversed. The Fit for 55 package includes measures that will end the sale of new internal combustion engine cars and trucks in Europe by the 2030s. To accelerate the shift and raise fuel economy in the existing fleet, a carbon tax is necessary. Petrol is already very heavily taxed in Europe. The problem is that the demand is inelastic. For many people driving is not a choice. Raising petrol and diesel prices thus disproportionately hurts those on lower incomes in suburban and rural areas. </p><p>A chorus of opposition is gathering against the Commission’s proposal. National governments, parliamentarians, unnamed senior diplomats, national officials do not simply oppose the idea. They are <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/a4e3791b-9d9e-4bf9-ae74-fe1cf1980625">warning</a> that any attempt to raise prices, risks triggering an outbreak of protests like the Yellow Vest protests that rocked France and the government of President Macron in 2018-2019. The message is amplified by journalists recycling unattributed comments from inside the Brussels machine and quotes from politicians such as <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/883a676c-7370-4e42-9b3a-dcf7e898e7bd">Pascal Canfin</a>, chair of the European Parliament’s environment committee, who, it turns out, represent’s Macron’s party. </p><p>To be clear, those making the warnings are not themselves protestors, nor, on the whole do they represent constituencies involved in the protests. The Gilet Jaunes have become <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-fit-for-55-climate-blowback-green-deal-frans-timmermans/">political folklore</a>. They are the boogyman, a knock down argument against the Commission’s proposals. There are many politicians in Europe in 2021 who fervently wish that the issue of carbon pricing would simply go away. If talking about the Gilet Jaunes serves that purpose, so be it. But to gauge the actual risk of a repeat of 2021 and the motives of those who are summoning the boogyman, it helps to go back to what actually happened in 2018-9. </p><p>In November 2018 Macron’s government announced that it would be raising the tax on fossil fuels from 44,60 euros per tonne to 55 euros as of 1 January 2019. The French carbon levy was first introduced in 2014 under François Hollande’s socialist Presidency. It was France’s big climate policy initiative ahead of the global climate conference hosted in Paris in 2015. It was, from the outset, an escalating tax. Starting at 7 euros per tonne the target was to reach 100 euros per tonne by 2030, within striking distance of the figures discussed by climate economists. Macron’s increase was the latest in the schedule. What was not scheduled was the public reaction. </p><p>Following a facebook appeal on November 17 2018 300,000 demonstrators blockaded traffic across France. Though the overall number of protestors never again reached the November 17 peak, the tone of the protests in Paris over the following weeks became ever more vociferous. On December 1 the capital was convulsed by clashes between protestors and the police. Much of the center of the city was boarded up. It was the lockdown before the lockdown. </p><p>The violence of the street-fighting in Paris defines the memory of the Gilet Jaunes. All in all by the summer of 2019 1,797 police and gendarmes and 2,448 protesters had been injured. The level of force used by the French police against demonstrators was extreme. An armory of <a href="https://www.jacobinmag.com/2021/06/police-brutality-protests-demonstrations-crowd-control-nonlethal-less-lethal-weapons-tear-gas-rubber-bullets-rocher-interview">“non-lethal” weapons</a> acquired since 2000 was put to full use. According to a fact-checked summary by <a href="https://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/2019/11/year-gilets-jaunes-have-lost-24-eyes-and-five-hands-and-made-deep-mark-french">Mediapart</a>, 24 protestors lost eyes to rubber bullets. 5 lost a hand. 315 sustained head injuries. The violence was so striking that it attracted the attention of the <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/20190306-un-france-investigate-excessive-force-yellow-vests">United Nations</a>. The controversy rumbled into 2020 with tough <a href="https://apnews.com/article/paris-freedom-of-information-united-nations-france-c2459057a35984a81896b2d8f4db7530">new legislation</a> pushed by Macron’s government aiming to protect the French police against the circulation of images designed to “cause harm”. </p><p>Embarrassed by the chaos, Macon’s government backed away from the escalation of the fuel tax. The climate issue, however, would not go away. In 2019 a Citizens Assembly for the Climate was set up, which in June 2020 delivered a report on <a href="https://www.lci.fr/planete/convention-citoyenne-pour-le-climat-le-passage-de-35-a-28-heures-rejete-mais-149-mesures-adoptees-2156956.html">149 measures to address the climate crisis </a>"in the spirit of social justice.” One of these proposals was for a common carbon tax on the border of Europe. In early July 2020 Macron himself took up that call, "If there is to be a carbon tax that is significant from an economic point of view, it must exist first of all at the European level. I will fight for a tax at the borders of Europe, as has been proposed by the citizen’s convention.”</p><p>Paris handed the problem off to Brussels. That is a well-tried practice in European politics. The problem is that Brussels sometimes comes back with real measures. The Commission, with the Dutch social democrat Frans Timmermans forging the way and heavy-weight backing from Berlin, has proposed a carbon border adjustment that will tax polluting imports from the rest of the world. The other side of the coin is the comprehensive extension of the ETS. </p><p>Unsurprisingly, French voices have led the charge against the Commission’s plans. Corinne Le Quéré, the chair of France’s High Council on Climate, believes there is “absolutely” a chance these policies will spark rebellious public responses. Canfin calls the proposal <a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy-environment/news/eus-timmermans-defends-new-ets-in-front-of-sceptical-lawmakers/">“politically suicidal”</a>. “I advise Frans Timmermans”, Canfin remarked, “that rather than playing the firefighter, he doesn't play the pyromaniac”. </p><p>A carbon tax is regressive say its opponents. It will hurt those on modest incomes most. It will feed populism and ultimately trigger mast protests. On the face of it, that has a degree of plausibility. But is that actually what happened in France in 2018? Who lit the fire? Was it the advocates of carbon pricing who were the pyromaniacs? </p><p>Between 2014 and 2018 the effect of the French carbon tax on petrol and diesel was significant. This was particularly so for diesel, the fuel most used by businesses, which had previously enjoyed special tax privileges. The adjustment was made even more painful by the fact that global oil prices were bouncing back from the lows to which they had plunged in 2014/5. In October 2018, a litre of diesel cost more than 1.50 euros, an all time high. In less than three years it had escalated by 50 percent.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_1gG!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1d61fe3f-294f-4b8e-aa63-aa453146b393_1740x938.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_1gG!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1d61fe3f-294f-4b8e-aa63-aa453146b393_1740x938.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_1gG!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1d61fe3f-294f-4b8e-aa63-aa453146b393_1740x938.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_1gG!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1d61fe3f-294f-4b8e-aa63-aa453146b393_1740x938.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_1gG!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1d61fe3f-294f-4b8e-aa63-aa453146b393_1740x938.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/1d61fe3f-294f-4b8e-aa63-aa453146b393_1740x938.png" width="1456" height="785" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/1d61fe3f-294f-4b8e-aa63-aa453146b393_1740x938.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":785,"width":1456,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":220890,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_1gG!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1d61fe3f-294f-4b8e-aa63-aa453146b393_1740x938.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_1gG!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1d61fe3f-294f-4b8e-aa63-aa453146b393_1740x938.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_1gG!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1d61fe3f-294f-4b8e-aa63-aa453146b393_1740x938.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!_1gG!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1d61fe3f-294f-4b8e-aa63-aa453146b393_1740x938.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source: <a href="https://static.agora-energiewende.de/fileadmin/Projekte/2018/CO2-Steuer_FR-DE_Paper/Agora-Energiewende_Paper_CO2_Steuer_EN.pdf">Gagnebin, Graichen, Lenck 2019</a></p><p>This was significant, but was it enough to trigger an epic wave of national protest? Hardly! The fuel price was at most the trigger. The increase in the fuel levy took place against the backdrop of a package of “reforms” which amounted to a significant reshuffling of the French welfare and tax system. Macron’s government brought the upheaval on itself. </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7kh3!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fffedeefb-484b-45b7-9743-38e7a5adf6c4_1288x854.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7kh3!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fffedeefb-484b-45b7-9743-38e7a5adf6c4_1288x854.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7kh3!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fffedeefb-484b-45b7-9743-38e7a5adf6c4_1288x854.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7kh3!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fffedeefb-484b-45b7-9743-38e7a5adf6c4_1288x854.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7kh3!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fffedeefb-484b-45b7-9743-38e7a5adf6c4_1288x854.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ffedeefb-484b-45b7-9743-38e7a5adf6c4_1288x854.png" width="1288" height="854" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ffedeefb-484b-45b7-9743-38e7a5adf6c4_1288x854.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":854,"width":1288,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":205403,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7kh3!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fffedeefb-484b-45b7-9743-38e7a5adf6c4_1288x854.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7kh3!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fffedeefb-484b-45b7-9743-38e7a5adf6c4_1288x854.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7kh3!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fffedeefb-484b-45b7-9743-38e7a5adf6c4_1288x854.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7kh3!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fffedeefb-484b-45b7-9743-38e7a5adf6c4_1288x854.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source: <a href="https://static.agora-energiewende.de/fileadmin/Projekte/2018/CO2-Steuer_FR-DE_Paper/Agora-Energiewende_Paper_CO2_Steuer_EN.pdf">Gagnebin, Graichen, Lenck 2019</a></p><p>Taken together the combined effect of Macron’s measure was to depress the incomes of the bottom 25 % of the income distribution and to raise them slightly for those in the middle. A squeeze was applied to those between 75 and 99 percent. The only group that benefited to a significant degree were the top 1 percent of the income distribution. They saw a generous 6% bump in their incomes. </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IcL-!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F951d8541-3726-40b7-85a1-174b84958c1f_1750x1180.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IcL-!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F951d8541-3726-40b7-85a1-174b84958c1f_1750x1180.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IcL-!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F951d8541-3726-40b7-85a1-174b84958c1f_1750x1180.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IcL-!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F951d8541-3726-40b7-85a1-174b84958c1f_1750x1180.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IcL-!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F951d8541-3726-40b7-85a1-174b84958c1f_1750x1180.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/951d8541-3726-40b7-85a1-174b84958c1f_1750x1180.png" width="1456" height="982" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/951d8541-3726-40b7-85a1-174b84958c1f_1750x1180.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":982,"width":1456,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":429127,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IcL-!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F951d8541-3726-40b7-85a1-174b84958c1f_1750x1180.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IcL-!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F951d8541-3726-40b7-85a1-174b84958c1f_1750x1180.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IcL-!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F951d8541-3726-40b7-85a1-174b84958c1f_1750x1180.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IcL-!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F951d8541-3726-40b7-85a1-174b84958c1f_1750x1180.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source: <a href="https://static.agora-energiewende.de/fileadmin/Projekte/2018/CO2-Steuer_FR-DE_Paper/Agora-Energiewende_Paper_CO2_Steuer_EN.pdf">Gagnebin, Graichen, Lenck 2019</a></p><p>The diesel price increase may have been the trigger, but, to interpret the Gilets Jaunes first and foremost as a protest against climate policy is to miss the point. The real target was economic distress, inequality and President Macron. In <a href="https://www.lemonde.fr/idees/article/2018/12/11/gilets-jaunes-une-enquete-pionniere-sur-la-revolte-des-revenus-modestes_5395562_3232.html">polls</a> done amongst the demonstrators in November, the motivations were clear. “The need to raise purchasing power” was mentioned by 53 percent. 41.6% wanted taxes lowered. 19.9 % were motivated by the maldistribution of wealth. And another 18.7 % mentioned opposition to the government and the President. Climate as such did not figure. Of the 61.5 % of the protestors who identified themselves in conventional left v. right terms, two thirds were of the left. National polling showed that the supporters of the Gilets Jaunes favored redistribution from the rich to the poor to a degree that in the 2017 Presidential election would have placed them somewhere between the socialist Benoît Harmon, advised by Thomas Piketty, and the left populist Jean-Luc Mélenchon. </p><p><strong>Question: What is your Position on redistribution? Do you favor taking from the rich to give to the poor?</strong> </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!kTda!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbc586c26-69de-414a-bf67-e1329cd0bc13_1096x682.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!kTda!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbc586c26-69de-414a-bf67-e1329cd0bc13_1096x682.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!kTda!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbc586c26-69de-414a-bf67-e1329cd0bc13_1096x682.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!kTda!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbc586c26-69de-414a-bf67-e1329cd0bc13_1096x682.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!kTda!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbc586c26-69de-414a-bf67-e1329cd0bc13_1096x682.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/bc586c26-69de-414a-bf67-e1329cd0bc13_1096x682.png" width="1096" height="682" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/bc586c26-69de-414a-bf67-e1329cd0bc13_1096x682.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":682,"width":1096,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":411542,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!kTda!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbc586c26-69de-414a-bf67-e1329cd0bc13_1096x682.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!kTda!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbc586c26-69de-414a-bf67-e1329cd0bc13_1096x682.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!kTda!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbc586c26-69de-414a-bf67-e1329cd0bc13_1096x682.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!kTda!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fbc586c26-69de-414a-bf67-e1329cd0bc13_1096x682.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source: <a href="http://sarkoups.free.fr/algangj219.pdf">Note de L’OBE 2019 3</a> </p><p>Amongst the French public at large the Gilets Jaunes enjoyed sympathy from both ends of the political spectrum. Between them the far left and the far right accounted for half the total support for the Gilets Jaunes. </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FUl5!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F55d502a4-94cd-48cb-9ec9-0a78a4645c22_1168x740.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FUl5!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F55d502a4-94cd-48cb-9ec9-0a78a4645c22_1168x740.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FUl5!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F55d502a4-94cd-48cb-9ec9-0a78a4645c22_1168x740.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FUl5!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F55d502a4-94cd-48cb-9ec9-0a78a4645c22_1168x740.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FUl5!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F55d502a4-94cd-48cb-9ec9-0a78a4645c22_1168x740.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/55d502a4-94cd-48cb-9ec9-0a78a4645c22_1168x740.png" width="1168" height="740" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/55d502a4-94cd-48cb-9ec9-0a78a4645c22_1168x740.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":740,"width":1168,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":367288,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FUl5!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F55d502a4-94cd-48cb-9ec9-0a78a4645c22_1168x740.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FUl5!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F55d502a4-94cd-48cb-9ec9-0a78a4645c22_1168x740.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FUl5!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F55d502a4-94cd-48cb-9ec9-0a78a4645c22_1168x740.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FUl5!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F55d502a4-94cd-48cb-9ec9-0a78a4645c22_1168x740.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source: <a href="http://sarkoups.free.fr/algangj219.pdf">Note de L’OBE 2019 3</a></p><p>What the protests exposed was the extreme fragility of Macron’s election success on May 7 2017. At the time, Macron’s victory was hailed as a triumph for a reforming, energetic centrist. But this was a mirage. In the first round of Presidential voting on April 23 2017, the French electorate split into five roughly equal segments, from far left to the far right between Mélenchon, Macron, Fillon, Le Pen and abstentions. Better paid French voters with more education voted for Macron and the reverse was true for Le Pen. </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!33TB!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fec0af0de-0591-4777-a213-4e0c98bd58e4_1106x668.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!33TB!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fec0af0de-0591-4777-a213-4e0c98bd58e4_1106x668.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!33TB!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fec0af0de-0591-4777-a213-4e0c98bd58e4_1106x668.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!33TB!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fec0af0de-0591-4777-a213-4e0c98bd58e4_1106x668.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!33TB!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fec0af0de-0591-4777-a213-4e0c98bd58e4_1106x668.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ec0af0de-0591-4777-a213-4e0c98bd58e4_1106x668.png" width="1106" height="668" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ec0af0de-0591-4777-a213-4e0c98bd58e4_1106x668.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":668,"width":1106,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":443310,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!33TB!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fec0af0de-0591-4777-a213-4e0c98bd58e4_1106x668.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!33TB!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fec0af0de-0591-4777-a213-4e0c98bd58e4_1106x668.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!33TB!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fec0af0de-0591-4777-a213-4e0c98bd58e4_1106x668.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!33TB!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fec0af0de-0591-4777-a213-4e0c98bd58e4_1106x668.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source: <a href="http://sarkoups.free.fr/algangj219.pdf">Note de L’OBE 2019 3</a></p><p>What handed Macron the Presidency were not the 24 percent of the vote he scored in the first round, but the anti-Le Pen rally in the second round. Macron’s final tally of 66 percent was deceiving. And this is what the Gilets Jaunes protests exposed. The street protests mobilized an anti-establishment groundswell that in the voting booth was split between left and right. Mapped in terms of income and education, support and opposition to the Gilet Jaunes were polarized, just as the Le Pen and Macron blocs had been in 2017. </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dyH6!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffd7436df-2887-4676-9b8e-3a46aa9ef7c1_1166x752.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dyH6!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffd7436df-2887-4676-9b8e-3a46aa9ef7c1_1166x752.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dyH6!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffd7436df-2887-4676-9b8e-3a46aa9ef7c1_1166x752.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dyH6!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffd7436df-2887-4676-9b8e-3a46aa9ef7c1_1166x752.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dyH6!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffd7436df-2887-4676-9b8e-3a46aa9ef7c1_1166x752.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/fd7436df-2887-4676-9b8e-3a46aa9ef7c1_1166x752.png" width="632" height="407.60205831903943" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/fd7436df-2887-4676-9b8e-3a46aa9ef7c1_1166x752.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":752,"width":1166,"resizeWidth":632,"bytes":421060,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dyH6!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffd7436df-2887-4676-9b8e-3a46aa9ef7c1_1166x752.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dyH6!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffd7436df-2887-4676-9b8e-3a46aa9ef7c1_1166x752.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dyH6!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffd7436df-2887-4676-9b8e-3a46aa9ef7c1_1166x752.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dyH6!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffd7436df-2887-4676-9b8e-3a46aa9ef7c1_1166x752.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source: <a href="http://sarkoups.free.fr/algangj219.pdf">Note de L’OBE 2019 3</a></p><p>There is no doubt that the price of diesel was the spark, but what was more broadly at stake was a sense of the unfairness of French society, frustration with the political system and indignation at Macron’s policies. This is not to say that a rapid increase in prices for diesel were not a real issue for working-class families struggling on modest incomes. There are real trade offs between climate policy and social justice that have to be carefully managed. The latest <em>Eurobarometer</em> polling of Europe-wide public opinion is eloquent on this point. </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QZ9I!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2137aaa2-e5f1-4403-aee5-92d579237a73_996x994.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QZ9I!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2137aaa2-e5f1-4403-aee5-92d579237a73_996x994.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QZ9I!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2137aaa2-e5f1-4403-aee5-92d579237a73_996x994.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QZ9I!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2137aaa2-e5f1-4403-aee5-92d579237a73_996x994.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QZ9I!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2137aaa2-e5f1-4403-aee5-92d579237a73_996x994.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/2137aaa2-e5f1-4403-aee5-92d579237a73_996x994.png" width="650" height="648.6947791164658" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/2137aaa2-e5f1-4403-aee5-92d579237a73_996x994.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":994,"width":996,"resizeWidth":650,"bytes":213688,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QZ9I!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2137aaa2-e5f1-4403-aee5-92d579237a73_996x994.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QZ9I!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2137aaa2-e5f1-4403-aee5-92d579237a73_996x994.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QZ9I!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2137aaa2-e5f1-4403-aee5-92d579237a73_996x994.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QZ9I!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2137aaa2-e5f1-4403-aee5-92d579237a73_996x994.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source: <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/clima/sites/default/files/support/docs/report_2021_en.pdf">Eurobarometer</a></p><p>Europeans of all backgrounds recognize the climate problem. Climate-skepticism is a fringe position. But whereas for 30 percent of the self-identified “upper middle class” climate is the top concern and another 10 percent name global population, for the self-identified working class those numbers are 12 and 4 percent respectively. For those on lower incomes, poverty and the economic situation come top of the list. The obvious conclusion - it really isn’t rocket science - is that the energy transition must be founded on a social bargain. As Timmermans has <a href="https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-fit-for-55-climate-blowback-green-deal-frans-timmermans/">put it</a>: ““Very simple, the European Green Deal is going to be just, or there is just not going to be a European Green Deal,” The lesson of the Gilet Jaunes crisis is not that carbon pricing is impossible, but that it has to be done with an awareness of the distributional effects. If you want to adjust energy prices you have to offset the higher costs with redistributive payments to those whose incomes are squeezed most severely. And you have to ensure that those welfare payments are as visible as is the increased costs of driving. </p><p>The regressive bias of carbon pricing and taxes is pronounced. But that is not the same as saying that the overall effect is large. Modest redistributive payments financed by the carbon levy itself can even generate a progressive effect. The Commission’s Fit for 55 package is based on a <a href="https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:52020SC0176">comprehensive modeling exercise </a>that demonstrates precisely this possibility. An energy transition driven by uncompensated carbon levies depresses the incomes of the bottom decile, not by a huge amount, but by a noticeable 3 %. With a suitably designed redistributive system, their incomes can actually be increased. </p><p>The Commission proposes a 72.2 billion euro Social Climate Fund to address the regressive impact of energy price increases. Matched by member state contributions that would mobilize 144.4 billion euros to address the issue. That message, however, is being drowned out by Gilet Jaunes fear-mongering. This warping of the discursive field is itself one of the effects of the 2018-9 crisis. “Doing stupid shit", as Obama might have put it, spoils the pitch. Implementing a bad carbon pricing policy as part of an inequitable package of tax and welfare changes makes it harder subsequently to make the positive case for a well-designed policy. The folks who objected to the original bad policy will be harder to convince of the merits of a better policy and neutrals will change their mind. Risk-averse politicians turn cautious. Anyone who opposes carbon pricing for other reasons has all the rhetorical ammunition they need. </p><p>This shows up with depressing force in the French opinion <a href="http://www.cepremap.fr/depot/2019/11/docweb1906.pdf">polling evidence</a>. In early 2018 when a representative sample of French people were offered the proposal of a carbon tax combined with an offsetting carbon bonus, 49 percent approved. After the Gilets Jaunes crisis, support fell to 10 percent. Not only had the balance shifted, but the sample were now resistant to new information. Despite evidence to the contrary, the respondents continued to insist the idea was unfair. They had lost trust in the entire proposition. </p><p>There are no do-overs in politics. Screwing up does lasting damage. It is nevertheless ironic that the Commission for all its pains now faces a chorus of Macronites accusing them of pyromania and shouting: “How could you propose such a thing? Don’t you know it’s regressive! Remember the Gilets Jaunes …”. The idea that one might learn from history and might in fact have taken appropriate precautions, does not get a hearing. Best not even to try. Nor can the Commission alone take forceful action. Welfare policy remains the jealousy guarded prerogative of Europe’s nation states. And the revenue generated by the carbon trading system is being eagerly eyed by them. There is no guarantee that they will actually return the payments to their citizens who need it most. </p><p>The case for progressive redistribution through carbon levies and offsets can be made. But it will take conviction and political courage. And as luck has it, who will be presiding over the European Council when the proposals have to be argued for? France, with Emmanuel Macron facing an election year! The spring of 2022 is going to be interesting in European politics. </p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{"url":"https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-newsletter-27-gilets-jaunes?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share","text":"Share","action":null,"class":null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-newsletter-27-gilets-jaunes?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share"><span>Share</span></a></p><p></p><!--
{
"post_id": "39724480.adam-tooze-chartbook-31-the-mirage",
"post_date": "2021-08-08T13:03:29.874Z",
"is_published": true,
"email_sent_at": "2021-08-08T13:03:29.975Z",
"inbox_sent_at": "2021-08-08T13:03:29.975Z",
"type": "newsletter",
"audience": "everyone",
"title": "Adam Tooze Chartbook #31 The Mirage of Carbon Markets? ",
"subtitle": "Deciphering the trans-Atlantic divergence over climate policy. "
}
-->
<p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{"url":"https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe now","action":null,"class":null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p>Whilst Trump held the White House, the question of trans-Atlantic climate diplomacy did not arise. The advent of the Biden administration has brought the United States back into the Paris climate agreement. The White House insists that climate is “everywhere” in its program. This is welcome. But, after initial excitement the Biden program has stalled. At home, the wrangling over the infrastructure program has slowed progress . The stand-off with China leaves Washington with no leverage over the largest polluter. At the G20 meeting of environment ministers, John Kerry was a prominent presence, but there was no deal. Even with the Europeans, who might be thought of as climate allies, big differences have emerged. So much so that we are hearing talk of a trans-Atlantic carbon <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/13/europe-climate-tax-trade-biden-499557">trade war</a>. That would be a disaster. </p><p>In this <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/08/06/climate-conflict-europe-us-green-trade-war/">long read</a> for <em>Foreign Policy</em> I tried to take stock:</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pZAD!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F023c1742-ddf1-42d7-bd31-8a18eb2ea612_1694x1244.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pZAD!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F023c1742-ddf1-42d7-bd31-8a18eb2ea612_1694x1244.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pZAD!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F023c1742-ddf1-42d7-bd31-8a18eb2ea612_1694x1244.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pZAD!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F023c1742-ddf1-42d7-bd31-8a18eb2ea612_1694x1244.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pZAD!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F023c1742-ddf1-42d7-bd31-8a18eb2ea612_1694x1244.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/023c1742-ddf1-42d7-bd31-8a18eb2ea612_1694x1244.png" width="1456" height="1069" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/023c1742-ddf1-42d7-bd31-8a18eb2ea612_1694x1244.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":1069,"width":1456,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":1032726,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":false,"topImage":true,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pZAD!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F023c1742-ddf1-42d7-bd31-8a18eb2ea612_1694x1244.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pZAD!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F023c1742-ddf1-42d7-bd31-8a18eb2ea612_1694x1244.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pZAD!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F023c1742-ddf1-42d7-bd31-8a18eb2ea612_1694x1244.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!pZAD!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F023c1742-ddf1-42d7-bd31-8a18eb2ea612_1694x1244.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>The issue at stake is rather technical - carbon pricing and how it should be reflected in so-called carbon border adjustments. But it has much wider implications. It is yet another reflection of trans Atlantic difference in the politics of economic government. </p><p>In this newsletter I want to dig deeper into the thinking that may be informing the American position. </p><p>Before we get into that, a brief note about <em>Chartbook</em>.</p><p>******</p><p>I enjoy putting <em>Chartbook</em> together. I hope you find it interesting. I know that <em>Chartbook</em> is read by folks in many walks of life, all over the world. I am delighted that it goes out free to readers.</p><p>But, assembling all this material takes a lot of work. So, if you appreciate the <em>Chartbook</em> content and can afford to chip-in, please consider signing up for one of the paying subscriptions. You will be supporting the mission, earning great karma and some goodies too. </p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{"url":"https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe now","action":null,"class":null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p>There are three <strong>options</strong>:</p><ol><li><p>The <strong>annual subscription: $50 annually</strong></p></li><li><p>The <strong>standard monthly subscription: $5 monthly -</strong> which gives you a bit more flexibility.</p></li><li><p><strong>Founders club: $120 annua</strong>lly (or another amount at your discretion) - for those who really love Chartbook Newsletter, or read it in a professional setting in which you regularly pay for subscriptions.</p></li></ol><p>As a thank you, paying subscribers receive regular emails with links to some of the most interesting, intriguing and unusual material I come across, around the web. Check out Top Links <a href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/adam-tooze-chartbook-top-links-5">here</a>. </p><p><strong>Shutdown sessions:</strong></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hO60!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0493f8c7-bae4-44df-a5d4-d99d8bac6d48_566x854.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hO60!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0493f8c7-bae4-44df-a5d4-d99d8bac6d48_566x854.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hO60!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0493f8c7-bae4-44df-a5d4-d99d8bac6d48_566x854.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hO60!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0493f8c7-bae4-44df-a5d4-d99d8bac6d48_566x854.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hO60!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0493f8c7-bae4-44df-a5d4-d99d8bac6d48_566x854.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/0493f8c7-bae4-44df-a5d4-d99d8bac6d48_566x854.png" width="342" height="516.0212014134275" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/0493f8c7-bae4-44df-a5d4-d99d8bac6d48_566x854.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":854,"width":566,"resizeWidth":342,"bytes":546745,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hO60!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0493f8c7-bae4-44df-a5d4-d99d8bac6d48_566x854.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hO60!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0493f8c7-bae4-44df-a5d4-d99d8bac6d48_566x854.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hO60!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0493f8c7-bae4-44df-a5d4-d99d8bac6d48_566x854.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!hO60!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0493f8c7-bae4-44df-a5d4-d99d8bac6d48_566x854.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Following the release of <em>Shutdown</em> in <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Shutdown-Covid-Shook-Worlds-Economy-ebook/dp/B08WK1WL23/ref=sr_1_3?dchild=1&keywords=tooze+shutdown&qid=1628419334&sr=8-3">September,</a> subscribers will be invited, in the fall, to a series of seminars I will be hosting to discuss the book. Details tba. </p><p>In the mean time, a very big “thank you” to all those who have given their support to <em>Chartbook</em>. I am very excited about the future of the project. </p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{"url":"https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe now","action":null,"class":null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p>**********</p><p>Back to business. </p><p>First some basics. Carbon pricing is the economists’ preferred weapon to address the climate crisis. Two methods are proposed: (1) tax or (2) “cap and trade”. </p><p>Carbon taxes curb emissions by raising their price. The logic is simple and the problems are obvious. Taxes are unpopular. And you have to make sure to pick the right rate. If you do manage to get acceptance and get the tax right, the effect can be powerful. It is especially effective if you can fix an escalating tax rate that provides an incentive to long-term investment in emissions saving. In the UK, an adjustable tax was introduced in 2013 to establish a rising minimum price floor for carbon emissions from power generation. The foreseeable escalation of costs accelerated the rapid end of coal-burning in the <a href="https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/how-britain-beat-germany-race-green-energy-decarbonisation-uk-adam-tooze">UK</a>.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1-_8!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9ea439e9-fb06-4e6e-89d1-3a7c825a72e8_1144x656.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1-_8!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9ea439e9-fb06-4e6e-89d1-3a7c825a72e8_1144x656.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1-_8!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9ea439e9-fb06-4e6e-89d1-3a7c825a72e8_1144x656.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1-_8!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9ea439e9-fb06-4e6e-89d1-3a7c825a72e8_1144x656.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1-_8!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9ea439e9-fb06-4e6e-89d1-3a7c825a72e8_1144x656.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/9ea439e9-fb06-4e6e-89d1-3a7c825a72e8_1144x656.png" width="1144" height="656" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/9ea439e9-fb06-4e6e-89d1-3a7c825a72e8_1144x656.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":656,"width":1144,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":404181,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1-_8!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9ea439e9-fb06-4e6e-89d1-3a7c825a72e8_1144x656.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1-_8!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9ea439e9-fb06-4e6e-89d1-3a7c825a72e8_1144x656.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1-_8!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9ea439e9-fb06-4e6e-89d1-3a7c825a72e8_1144x656.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1-_8!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9ea439e9-fb06-4e6e-89d1-3a7c825a72e8_1144x656.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source: <a href="https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN05927/SN05927.pdf">House of Commons Research Briefing</a></p><p>Cap and trade systems are more complex. The authorities issue permits for a given amount of pollution. These are auctioned off to the highest bidder and a market is created in which polluters can trade permits amongst themselves. Rather than imposing a tax the government creates a kind of currency - emissions certificates - and a market for those certificates. To many economists since the 1980s, this has looked like the best solution. Rather than imposing taxes it creates an asset and allows a market mechanism to determine who is willing to pay to continue polluting. The absolute level of pollution is capped and can be progressively adjusted downwards. It is, however, hedged with problems, which will occupy us for much of this newsletter. </p><p>Above all if the aim of the game in adopting cap and trade is to avoid the painful politics of taxation, cap and trade more often than not proves to be a dead end. Rather than deciding on the tax rate you have to decide on the quantity of permits. If you dodge that question and issue them for free, the system becomes an absurd and counterproductive shell game. It discredits the entire model. </p><p>For all the problems, in one form or another, the vast majority of economists support carbon pricing. In January 2019 in the largest public petition by economists ever organized, 3623 American economists put their names to an appeal published in the <a href="https://clcouncil.org/economists-statement/">Wall Street Journal</a>. The list included 4 former Chairs of the Federal Reserve, 28 Nobel Laureates and 14 former chairs of the Council of Economic Advisers. The idea receives support from conservatives. It was under George H.W. Bush’s administration that the idea really caught on, but <a href="https://www.carbonpricingleadership.org/report-of-the-highlevel-commission-on-carbon-prices">Joe Stiglitz</a> is amongst its most consistent and sophisticated exponents. <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/uss-yellen-carbon-pricing-can-work-with-caveats-2021-07-13/">Janet Yellen</a> has also long been a supporter. </p><p>But what comes of these ideas in practice? </p><p>Europe has long taxed energy. In the 1990s after the first major climate conferences, the EU attempted to agree on a carbon tax, but couldn’t get the deal done. At the urging of American NGOs and key European corporate leaders, the EU opted for a cap and trade system. In political terms, a cap and system that is not a tax has the advantage that the rules of the EU do not require unanimity. Launched in 2005, the EU’s Emissions Trading System was, until China began to roll out its system in 2021, the largest in the world. But, for most of its existence to date, the EU’s Emissions Trading System (ETS) was a sad joke. Far too many permits were handed out free by national governments. Prices were prone to crashing. When they did not, polluters could earn a subsidy by selling their free certificates to other polluters. The amount of revenue collected was derisory. </p><p>However, things have begun to change. Brussels now runs the <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/ets_en">EU ETS</a> with a much firmer hand. The supply of certificates has tightened. In electricity generation all permits are auctioned and prices have surged to an appreciable 50 euros per ton of emissions. This will end coal-fired power generation whether the Poles like it or not. </p><p>The US, by contrast, has never taxed energy heavily. In the 1990s Clinton’s effort to pass a carbon tax failed. In 2009-2010 Congressional opposition defeated the Obama administration’s somewhat lack luster effort at cap and trade. Al Gore’s Inconvenient Truth may have been a global hit, but even with elaborate preparation there simply were not the votes. As a result, the Green New Deal proposed by the climate left dropped any mention of carbon pricing in favor of investment and regulation. The Biden administration has continued in that vein. Robinson Meyer of <em>The Atlantic</em> recently published an <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2021/07/obituary-carbon-tax-beloved-climate-policy-dies-47/619507/">obituary</a> for carbon taxes in the US. </p><p>The result is a stand off, in which the EU is the eager student that drank the Kool-Aid of 1990s market economics, whereas the US are the hard-bitten pragmatists hoping to do whatever they can. There are echoes of 2008 and the Eurozone crisis. </p><p>Or course, the two approaches could and should coexist side by side. But a serious push towards decarbonization, however you do it, involves up-front costs. To avoid outsourcing and undercutting from imported high-carbon competition, national efforts have to be shielded by carbon border adjustments - tariffs on high carbon imports - and it is over those that the EU and the US are at odds. That was the trigger for the <em><a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/08/06/climate-conflict-europe-us-green-trade-war/">FP</a> </em>piece, in which I attempt to diagnose the conflict and bring together some ideas as to how trans-Atlantic climate politics might be given a more positive direction. </p><p>In this newsletter I want to dig more deeply into the question of why US environmentalists have soured on carbon pricing. It is a question with wide implications. The putative death of “neoliberalism” is one of the big questions of the day. In economic policy it is most widely discussed in relation to fiscal and monetary policy, stimulus, debt, inflation etc. The extraordinary shift against carbon pricing in Washington, whilst the American economics profession remains overwhelmingly committed to it, is further testimony to the turmoil in the American political scene. </p><p>**********</p><p>The simplest explanation for the current disenchantment with carbon pricing in Washington is political. There is no hope of any legislation passing the usual conservative opposition in Senate. But the climate left isn’t keen either. As <a href="https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/blogs/stateline/2021/05/18/new-environmental-justice-measures-might-revive-cap-and-trade">one report</a> remarked: “California’s first-in-the-nation program, created in 2013, has drawn charges of environmental racism from critics who say it allows industries to achieve compliance without reducing pollution in marginalized communities. Late last year, California’s top air regulator fell out of the running to lead the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency after dozens of environmental justice groups warned President Joe Biden about what they said was her “bleak track record in addressing environmental racism.”</p><p>Nor is it simply the left and the right that are skeptical. More centrist green activists are backing away as well. To my mind, the contribution which most comprehensively sums up the critique of carbon pricing that is prevalent in the US today is Danny Cullenward and David G. Victor’s timely book, <em><a href="https://www.amazon.com/s?k=cullenward+victor&ref=nb_sb_noss">Making Climate Policy Work</a></em>. Their sophisticated argument, based in political science and political economy, deserves a hearing on both sides of the Atlantic. </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qTxP!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F72b9d47e-ddd7-42af-b394-8f4cfa43b468_596x938.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qTxP!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F72b9d47e-ddd7-42af-b394-8f4cfa43b468_596x938.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qTxP!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F72b9d47e-ddd7-42af-b394-8f4cfa43b468_596x938.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qTxP!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F72b9d47e-ddd7-42af-b394-8f4cfa43b468_596x938.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qTxP!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F72b9d47e-ddd7-42af-b394-8f4cfa43b468_596x938.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/72b9d47e-ddd7-42af-b394-8f4cfa43b468_596x938.png" width="444" height="698.7785234899329" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/72b9d47e-ddd7-42af-b394-8f4cfa43b468_596x938.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":938,"width":596,"resizeWidth":444,"bytes":348174,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qTxP!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F72b9d47e-ddd7-42af-b394-8f4cfa43b468_596x938.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qTxP!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F72b9d47e-ddd7-42af-b394-8f4cfa43b468_596x938.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qTxP!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F72b9d47e-ddd7-42af-b394-8f4cfa43b468_596x938.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qTxP!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F72b9d47e-ddd7-42af-b394-8f4cfa43b468_596x938.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Cullenward is an economist, lawyer and activist attached to <a href="https://carbonplan.org/research">(carbon)plan</a> noted for critical work on carbon offset schemes. Victor (UC San Diego) is an IPCC veteran and a <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Global-Warming-Gridlock-Strategies-Protecting/dp/0521865018/ref=sr_1_3?dchild=1&keywords=david+victor&qid=1628421480&sr=8-3">well-known critic</a> of “top down” efforts at carbon regulation. He champions the kind of “bottom up” model of climate policy that triumphed in Paris in 2015. </p><p>Rather than seeking to distribute an overall global carbon budget from the top down, which triggers an acrimonious zero-sum distributional battle, the Paris agreement adopted a more minimal approach. All that national governments adhering to the Paris agreement are required to do, is to state their best offer. There is no requirement to achieve consistency and no hard enforcement mechanism. It was this “light touch” model that enabled a truly comprehensive agreement to be stitched together. </p><p>In <em>Making Climate Policy Work</em>, Cullenward and Victor extend the critique of over-generalized climate solutions from the plans to distribute a carbon budget across the world’s nations, to the plan to regulate all emissions by way of setting a carbon price. Cullenward and Victor show how and why such schemes systematically fail. Apart from Europe’s ETS, the two models that they discuss in depth are North American: the Western Climate Initiative (WCI) linking California and Québec, and the northeastern United States’ Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI). </p><p>Rather than attempting a perfect and comprehensive market solution, they propose that we should focus on devising a set of proposals for industrial policy and regulation to address each of the five major areas of pollution: power generation, industry, transport, buildings and agriculture. </p><p>Conceptually, this preference for ad hoc “bottom up” solutions is influenced by Victor’s <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Fixing-Climate-Strategies-Uncertain-World/dp/0691224552/ref=sr_1_3?dchild=1&keywords=david+g.+victor&qid=1628421916&sr=8-3">collaboration with Chuck Sabel</a> and the project of experimental governance that Sabel has been developing with his long-time writing partner <a href="https://www.oxfordhandbooks.com/view/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199560530.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780199560530-e-12">Jonathan Zeitlin</a>. Rather than grand schematics like a global carbon budget or a universal carbon price they focus on the need to break down big problems into smaller more manageable challenges that can be addressed by pragmatic and adaptive experimentation. </p><p>The “bottom up approach” and experimental governance both have their critics. And if Cullenward and Victor’s arguments are to gain the hearing they deserve, it is important to address those general objections first. </p><p>The knock on the “bottom up” approach is that it does not produce an adequate overall package to address the global crisis. The knock on experimental governance is that it offers a sugar-coated account of the operation of power. The result is that Cullenward and Victor’s approach is liable to be dismissed as inadequately forceful and comprehensive. Like Obama’s climate policy it is vulnerable to criticism as sophisticated liberal “greenwashing”, or even a soft form of denial. </p><p>These objections are, as far as Cullenward and Victor’s book is concerned, wide of the mark. </p><p>Clearly, the “bottom up” Paris model, which aggregates the maximum offer that every national government is willing to make, does not guarantee that the sum of all the plans will add up to an adequate global solution. That was obvious. It was also obvious that a binding, top down allocation of carbon rations would have been better. The problem is that in climate policy as in other areas of life, pigs don’t fly. The classic “top down” Kyoto model was never going to be ratified by the US, nor did it offer a framework within which the largest emitter, China, could easily be incorporated. Though it is clear that the rich countries should bear the largest cost for carbon reduction, it was by the early 2000s also clear that a decarbonization push that does not include China is pointless. </p><p>The Paris agreement was the first attempt to get a comprehensive deal. But that does not mean that the work is done. Rather the opposite. The first round of inadequate national commitments was simply the starting point. The point of the Paris agreement is not the initial deal, but the iterative process it sets in motion. Nations are required to regularly come back to the table and update their proposals, progressively raising the bar of ambition. The spirit of the Paris deal was not to argue over a finished scheme, but to generate collective movement in the right direction. </p><p>Contrary to the suggestion that this iterative and experimental approach to governance is naive about power, it was chosen precisely out of an acute awareness of the limits that the existing distribution of power and influence impose on any possible agreement. Read Cullenward and Victor between the lines and it reads like Machiavelli - as disillusioned, realistic, situated advice to a climate prince. Their critique of carbon pricing, starts precisely from where the locus of decision-making is. They seek to be realistic about what might motivate action and what might serve as a check. For that reason they actually favor carbon taxation as a simple and direct means of shifting resource allocations. Their criticism is directed towards cap and trade and the fantasy of markets. </p><p>If at Paris the crucial thing was to unleash a process by enrolling even quite conservative climate skeptics, when it comes to carbon pricing, what is striking is that Cullenward and Victor converge with the climate left. Though there is little love lost between a climate centrists like Victor and an activists of Naomi Klein’s ilk, on carbon pricing and cap and trade they agree. Cullenward and Victor deliver a devastating critique of how, rather than delivering an actual shift in resources, overblown and overhyped visions of carbon markets serve to sustain the status quo. Every leftists should read it.</p><p>Though they don’t say so in so many words, their book is a powerful critique of the neoliberal ideology that has sustained the carbon market idea in the North Atlantic. Indeed, it is an exercise in critical political economy, charting how interest groups mobilize around carbon pricing schemes to render them ineffective or even counterproductive. The idea of carbon trading as an idea is favored by “academic and policy elites”, Cullenward and Victor argue. They may be well-intentioned but in practice their support for cap and trade serves to uphold the disastrous status quo. </p><p>In a great turn of phrase they describe cap and trade carbon markets as “Potemkin markets” - arrangements that look like markets but in fact fail to exercise any meaningful discipline. That is certainly an excellent way to describe how the EU system operated until recently. </p><p>But, as fitting as the term may be, to talk of “Potemkin markets”, in fact sells their argument short. Cullenward and Victor’s claim is not merely that carbon pricing schemes hide a more modest reality - as in the facade of a Potemkin village. In their view the idea of comprehensive carbon pricing is a dangerous fantasy, a mirage - a shimmering, promising illusion on the far horizon that lures desperate traveler to their doom. Ideology, one might say, functions not just by deceiving, but playing on and engendering desire. Cap and trade markets are a cute idea. And there is a certain sort of economist - in general, one should avoid generalizing about a gigantic and complex profession - but there <em>is</em> a certain sort of economist that cannot resist a cute idea, a gimmick, a clever incentive scheme, a device, a mechanism. Cap and trade is that kind of idea. </p><p>As Cullenward and Victor show, it is not just clever economists who are attracted to carbon pricing. There is nothing in the recent <a href="https://unearthed.greenpeace.org/2021/06/30/exxon-climate-change-undercover/">Greenpeace expos</a>é of Exxon’s lobbyists - revealing that Exxon <a href="https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/News/Newsroom/News-releases/Statements/Our-position-on-climate-policy-and-carbon-pricing">backed carbon pricing</a> because it knew it would never get enacted - that would surprise you after reading Cullenward and Victor. </p><p>Carbon market proposals fail to work systematically because interest groups manipulate them. They also fail because the very idea is a simplistic fantasy. When Cullenward and Victor talk of cap and trade markets as “visions”, one is reminded of Karl Polanyi’s famous critique of 19th-century classical economics not as a realistic description of the world, but as a draconian project of remaking that world in its simplified image. Except that cap and trade markets are not draconian. They are not so much high modernist brutalism as pleasing escapists fantasies. As Cullenward and Victor forcefully put it, there is, in fact, no such thing as “the” market. What there are are distinct sectors each with its own specific logic, each with its particular pattern of fossil fuel use. Rather than attempting to create a single overarching carbon price, what we need, to drive decarbonization are a series of precise interventions, each following the logic of a particular sector. </p><p>But if the Cullenward and Victor critique demolishes the promise of carbon markets as a general purpose solution, their critique has a sting in its tail. The rejection of “one size fits all”, extends to the critique of “one size fits all” itself. If the idea of introducing a general carbon pricing model in the United States is a dangerous mirage, it does not follow that carbon pricing in particular industries - notably electricity generation - is a bad idea, even in the US. And the fact that a general pricing scheme has no prospects in the United States, does not imply that it will not work in other places. Sometimes an airy confection actually materializes in the form of a brittle, but nevertheless real and delicious meringue. </p><p>Which brings us back to the trans-Atlantic dispute. Cullenward and Victor are duly critical of the failed early stages of the EU’s ETS. They also alert to the risks of extending the carbon pricing model to new areas - motor vehicles and domestic fuels - as the Commission proposes. But they recognize that in the EU, carbon pricing has a unique and propitious political backdrop. They also recognize the institutional learning that is owed to the decade-long engagement by the EU’s institutions. Measures such as the Market Stability Reserve introduced in 2019, which drain excess certificates from the system, exercise a steadying upward pressure on prices. The system can be made to work much better. It was in that spirit that I argued in <em>Social Europe</em> the <a href="https://socialeurope.eu/carbon-pricing-and-the-exit-from-fossil-fuels">summer of 2020</a> for a tactical doubling-down on the ETS system. It was also in that spirit that I offered by my critique of the exploitation of false memories of the Gilets Jaunes, in <a href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-newsletter-27-gilets-jaunes">Chartbook #27</a>. </p><p>The EU’s carbon pricing strategy is a work in progress. The current plans pose very real distributional concerns. Serious questions have been raised about whether the <a href="https://twitter.com/ThPellerin/status/1419591335775019010?s=20">proposed social funds</a> is large enough. But whatever the ultimate policy chosen, it is crucial that policy learning not be based on unhelpfully simplified and tendentious constructions and boogeymen. If iterative learning is how we improve policy, we must guard against a cycle of “Garbage in. Garbage out”. </p><p>Overall one might describe Cullenward and Victor’s approach as one of liberal pluralism - against top down carbon budgeting, against over grandiose carbon pricing, in favor of ad hoc, differentiated, iterative, variegated, specific, evidence- and expertise-based problem-solving. This is one way, at least, to rationalize the mood of the moment amongst advocates of climate policy in Washington in 2021. But it could also form the intellectual rationalization for a trans-Atlantic détente. After all, one should not simplify the trans-Atlantic gap. The American criticisms of simplistic carbon taxing and pricing models are shared by Green activists in Europe as well. See, for instance, this <a href="https://www.boell.de/de/2021/02/03/was-von-co2-preisen-zu-erwarten-ist-und-was-nicht">comment</a> and this in-depth <a href="https://www.boell.de/sites/default/files/2020-09/The%20Pricing%20of%20CO2.pdf">report</a> from the Boell Foundation, the party foundation of the German Greens. The EU’s ETS, is not the be all and end all of European climate policy. </p><p>But one might also spin Cullenward and Victor’s disillusioned critique of carbon pricing in a different direction. If the main driver of decarbonization has to be industrial policy and regulation, then we urgently need to turn to the question of political economy and not political economy in the abstract, but sectoral political economies. If the question is how to move five key sectors that drive emissions - power generation, transport, industry, buildings and agriculture - in the right direction, then the first thing we need is to understand how they work. Only then can we decide what incentives, what innovation, what muscle is necessary to drive the shift. And figuring that out is not as obvious as you might think. </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bPYc!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9799fb5c-810a-43ef-b269-0fdbe4b479b0_404x686.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bPYc!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9799fb5c-810a-43ef-b269-0fdbe4b479b0_404x686.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bPYc!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9799fb5c-810a-43ef-b269-0fdbe4b479b0_404x686.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bPYc!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9799fb5c-810a-43ef-b269-0fdbe4b479b0_404x686.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bPYc!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9799fb5c-810a-43ef-b269-0fdbe4b479b0_404x686.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/9799fb5c-810a-43ef-b269-0fdbe4b479b0_404x686.png" width="320" height="543.3663366336634" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/9799fb5c-810a-43ef-b269-0fdbe4b479b0_404x686.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":686,"width":404,"resizeWidth":320,"bytes":314085,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bPYc!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9799fb5c-810a-43ef-b269-0fdbe4b479b0_404x686.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bPYc!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9799fb5c-810a-43ef-b269-0fdbe4b479b0_404x686.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bPYc!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9799fb5c-810a-43ef-b269-0fdbe4b479b0_404x686.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bPYc!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9799fb5c-810a-43ef-b269-0fdbe4b479b0_404x686.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>In the last few days I have been fighting my way through Andreas Malm and the Zetkin collective’s sprawling opus <em>White Skin, Black Fuel</em>. Its politics - a self-consciously militant, Fanonian Marxism - contrasts sharply with Cullenward and Victor’s. Malm and co are to the left of Naomi Klein. But allowing for differences in terminology I see no reason why Cullenward and Victor’s political economy could not be translated into their conceptual framework. Put in the terms of Malm and Co, Cullenward and Victor’s goal is a strategic approach to capitalist climate governance whose basic aim is to uncouple the links that tie “fossil capital in general”, to the particular interests of the primary extractive sectors - coal, oil and gas. </p><p>In fact in musing on these parallels, I can’t help being struck by the intertwined intellectual genealogies. In their monumental effort, Malm and his co-authors productively reanimate Marxist state theory of the 1970s and 1980s, notably Poulantzas and Stuart Hall. I suspect that one of the models for their book is <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Policing-Crisis-Mugging-State-Order/dp/1137007192">Policing the Crisis</a>. Cullenward and Victor for their part draw on a lineage that also goes back to the 1980s, namely Chuck Sabel and Jonathan Zeitlin’s work on <a href="https://academic.oup.com/past/article/108/1/133/1435920?login=true">flexible specialization</a> and alternatives to mass production. The two crossed paths and were entangled in the intellectual milieu of Eurocommunism and the social and economic realities of central and Northern Italy. And for a teenager coming of age in 1980s Britain, like yours truly, both were captured in various ways in the pages of <em>Marxism Today</em> and the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/sep/29/marxism-today-forgotten-visionaries-whose-ideas-could-save-labour">Financial Times</a>. Not by accident, one of the <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/4286660">first pieces</a> I published was a review of a collection edited by Sabel and Zeitlin. It was a crucial backdrop to my collaboration with Cristiano Ristuccia on the history of <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1468-0289.2012.00675.x">machine tools</a> and our intersection with the work of David Edgerton on the <a href="https://www.histecon.magd.cam.ac.uk/research/machine_tools.htm">history of production</a>. More on this to follow. </p><p>Though this is a rather academic note to end on, the point, I think, is a deep one. What is exposed in the debates about decarbonization is ultimately the question of what actually drives the accumulation of capital, what makes the economy go, what the productive machinery actually is. That is what is being exposed in real time, in arguments over carbon pricing v. industrial policy etc. </p><!--
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<p>What we are really comparing our new approach against is traditional “supply side economics,” which also seeks to expand the economy’s potential output, but through aggressive deregulation paired with tax cuts designed to promote private capital investment. It is, unquestionably, important to properly implement regulation and maintain a pro-growth tax code, but they are not sufficient and can often be overdone. Modern supply side economics, in contrast, prioritizes labor supply, human capital, public infrastructure, R&D, and investments in a sustainable environment. These focus areas are all aimed at increasing economic growth and addressing longer-term structural problems, particularly inequality. The recently enacted Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill and the Build Back Better legislation that remains under consideration in Congress incorporate this modern supply side approach. </p><p>https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy0565</p><p>Designing for uncertainty</p><p>This approach starts with a thin consensus among an open group of founding participants motivated to act. 7 </p><p>We call this approach to climate change cooperation experimentalist governance. It is sharply at odds with most diplomatic efforts—including the important but ultimately flawed Paris Agreement—which so far have failed to make much of a dent in global warming. The architects of global climate treaties assumed that the dangers of climate were clear, and that solutions were in hand or easily discoverable. 3</p><p>Above all, the easy availability of solutions can’t be taken for granted. The experience of recent decades with, for example, electric vehicles, integration of renewables in the power grid, or improvements in ground-level pollution control, shows the difficulties. While solutions can be achieved, they are hard to come by and require deep, coordinated changes in many domains. Progress depends on the degree to which innovation is encouraged and coordinated. From this perspective, the first and fundamental problem that the overgrazing shepherds face is not to agree on sharing the burdens of adjustment but rather to cooperate in developing a new breed of sheep that grazes on less grass—and perhaps new varieties of grass and pasture practices as well. If that metaphor captures the fundamental challenge of climate change, then the best way to build effective consensus is not to ask who will commit to certain predetermined outcomes no matter what but instead to begin by systematically encouraging solving problems at many scales and piecing the results together into ever-stronger solutions. Global commitments, achieved through diplomacy, should be the outcome of our efforts rather than the starting point. This is a book about extraordinary but little-noticed innovations in organization and governance that take this alternative approach. 3 </p><p>We firmly believe we can meet the stark challenges before us, and experimentalist governance shows us how. 4 </p><p>Consensus thickens with effort, however, and new knowledge demonstrates what is needed, and which actors are capable and trustworthy. Interests are mutable as actors come to anticipate an advantage in the destabilization of the status quo and more demanding regulation. Participation is open, in the sense that new actors outside the circle of founders are 7 </p><p>the actual problem-solving is devolved to local or frontline actors—those most likely to have the kind of experience and expertise that embodies unanticipated possibility and unsuspected difficulty. 8</p><p>A distinctive combination of penalties and rewards incentivizes both public and private participation in this type of regime. By rewarding leaders to bet on change, they make it risky for laggard firms and government to bet against it. This “penalty default,” as it is known, destabilizes the status quo 8 </p><p>obstruction becomes the riskiest bet of all. And once the logjam of current interests is broken, shifting the question from whether change is possible to how it can be implemented in diverse conditions, the failure to keep pace is viewed more as a symptom of ignorance and incapacity than as an expression of selfish cunning 9 </p><p>These principles are unfamiliar in the realms of climate policy because much of that world frames climate change correctly as a problem of global collective action, but incorrectly equates global problem-solving with the search for solutions through consensus diplomacy. Most diplomacy, we will suggest, largely follows and aids on-the-ground experimentation and problem-solving rather than leading from the front. These principles, however, are not alien to the regulators, firms, and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) that have stumbled onto ways of working together to solve hard problems. They have discovered that the only way to move beyond the status quo is to destabilize it, and then learn, quickly, to use the daring and imagination that bubble up in the open space to develop better approaches. 9 </p><p>False dichotomy of bottom up/top down 10</p><p>False dichotomy of technocracy v democracy 10 </p><p>One of those who saw past this dichotomy was the pragmatist philosopher John Dewey. Dewey took uncertainty and change as the dominant problems of political life, and the need to adapt institutions to new circumstances as the continuing challenge to democracy. The response, he argued, was to explicitly acknowledge the fallibility of current arrangements, and make concrete problems the trigger to the adjustment of methods and clarification of goals. But he cautioned that the collaborative investigation of alternatives can only be effective if it integrates the knowledge of experts with the experience and values of citizens, for it is the citizen who knows best “where [the shoe] pinches, even if the expert shoemaker is the best judge of how the trouble is to be remedied.”3 The broad participation of stakeholders in the Montreal sectoral committees provides a glimpse of how such cooperation can work.</p><p>organization v. markets → carbon markets dead end 11</p><p>As individual actors minimize the costs of or returns from abatement, the overall effect is a gain in what economists call “static efficiency.”4 The really big gains in pollution reduction, however, come not from the optimization of current practices but instead from destabilizing innovation— innovation that sharply reduces the carbon footprint of a product or whole production process, or even completely redefines an entire industry. Achieving these transformative outcomes is difficult. Producing the next generation of familiar technology is relatively straightforward and cheap; striking out in radically new directions to create much cleaner technology is risky and expensive in comparison. The rewards and penalties needed to directly incentivize that shift would have to be high and speculative—so high and so speculative as to make them politically unacceptable. For these and other reasons, pure market instruments have never imposed limits severe enough or prices high enough to test the effects of high-powered incentives on innovation. There is scant evidence that in their normal operation, they contribute much to “dynamic efficiency”—efficiency over the longer term, as technology and interests are changing 11</p><p>But unlike markets, local decisions in experimentalist systems don’t influence each other merely through prices. Rather, they also and often most directly ramify through processes like standards setting and revision that depend on discussion and deliberation—discursive processes, as in organizations.6 In fact, we will contend that especially with regard to dynamic efficiency—on which progress toward a sustainable world ultimately depends—it is by this combination of price incentives and discursive, decentralized coordination that experimentalist governance can make good on the promise of carbon markets. Finally, experimentalism agrees with the literature on international regime complexes in marking the demise of consensus-based, hierarchical, and global governance institutions.7 In that vacuum—a gridlock of governance— the regime complex literature has documented the rise in many domains of disjointed constellations and partial regimes, pursuing sometimes complementary and sometimes conflicting purposes, and in the absence of any superior authority, forced to negotiate relations among themselves.8 The literature on regime complexes focuses in fact on describing the emerging processes of negotiations, and the distributions of role and authority that may result from them. Experimentalist governance concentrates instead on the way regime complexes—metaregimes—can provide the context for experimentalist organizations, most especially in the crucial case of the Paris Agreement.For decades, scholars have viewed the climate change problem as one that requires giant, global contracts, with parties facing strong incentives to defect.9 By contrast, we see cooperation emerging from the process of learning through experiments and the adjustment of interests in tandem 12</p><p>Successful problem-solving requires experimentation—a process that occurs mainly within countries and industrial sectors, not orchestrated through global agreements. 12 </p><p>With regard to warming-related emissions in particular, it is useful to distinguish two types of sectors. At one extreme are sectors comprised of globalized and highly concentrated industries, such as aircraft, steel, cement, auto, gas, and oil, whose products or production methods are subject to international standards. In these sectors, deep decarbonization entails risky and costly innovation at the frontier of technology, often driven by penalty defaults 13 </p><p>At the opposite extreme are more place-based sectors such as residential and commercial construction and power grids incorporating clean energy sources. In these cases, production is largely for local markets, using many local inputs, even if key components like wind turbines, nuclear fuel, or flooring materials are global commodities. The central challenge for international cooperation at this extreme is not simply innovation but also contextualization: making new technology work reliably in various places, according to local circumstances. S 13</p><p>In between these two extremes are hybrid cases, such as forestry products or palm oil, where the inputs are predominantly local, but the markets—and the standards and trade barriers that control access to them—are international. Reducing illegal logging or burning forests to clear land for agriculture requires reaching deep into local economies, often under limited control by the national state, to give small producers lucrative and stable alternatives to the current, environmentally destructive ones. 14 </p><p>This sectoral taxonomy matters because it informs where to focus effort, how to organize it, and where to look for the many signs of progress already. 14 </p><p>However, there has been a profusion of problem-solving efforts along these lines within other forums. Some are informed by experimentalist principles. If anything, there is a surfeit of national and international organizations directed to these tasks. The challenge for international cooperation on climate change today isn’t creating new sectoral institutions as much as identifying and coordinating the efforts of those that do or could work 14 </p><p>Even though Paris has little to contribute directly to this process, it does serve one essential and exclusive function. It is the most legitimate institution in global politics where climate change is discussed; it sets goals that while probably impossible to meet, are widely agreed on as a starting point. In short, it is the climate conscience of the world. Its presence makes it easier for governments, firms, and NGOs to punish—in the name of Paris—actors that drag their feet. Without Paris, it would be much more challenging— politically and legally—for protesters to rattle companies that cause big emissions and push governments to act on climate change. These are the penalty defaults that destabilize the status quo and motivate innovation, and they are essential to our vision of experimentalist-driven decarbonization. In fact, precisely because we see the fate of climate action as bound up with the development of other international organizations and efforts, this book is also about a broader transformation of the world order. A new climate change regime, evolved from the foundations of Paris but in more experimentalist directions, foretells a new kind of globalization—one, we argue, that is already in the works 14 </p><p>. In the case of Montreal, it was not the confident expectation of quick and painless solutions that led to a problem-solving regime but rather the formation of such a regime that made the problem manageable. The problem of ozone depletion is certainly more circumscribed than that of climate change. But far from being categorically different, it is of the same general type, subject to the same kinds of uncertainty regarding scientific and technological understanding—and the same kinds of political disputes as well 22</p><p>For the scientists and engineers organizing the new regime, there was nothing novel about the idea of collaboration in the solution of shared problems. Connected by education and work experience to professional communities that value reciprocity and honor elegant solutions, such cooperation was for them almost a reflex. For the concerned firms, however, the impulses conflicted. Having avoided engagement with regulators and, even more, one another in the preceding decade for fear of encouraging controls, firms had incentives to avoid collaboration. But as the likelihood of limits increased dramatically, the attraction of cooperation increased. Two closely related developments helped tip the balance in favor of the cooperative outcome. First, the growing threat to US industry from Japan and other countries had sparked a national discussion about the need to foster precompetitive industrial research and development. The US Congress passed the National Cooperative Research Act in 1984 to encourage such activity, most notably by effectively exempting it from antitrust liability. Precompetitive research became a legitimating trope for organizing collective industry responses to novel challenges. Second, the EPA actively used the act to advance the collaborative pursuit of ODS substitutes. Even before the Montreal structure had taken shape, the EPA had supported the formation of research consortia for the reduction of halons, speeding the deployment of alternatives in automotive air-conditioning, and crucially, 27</p><p>Tightening too fast—beyond the limits of good faith, fully informed efforts—invited political backlash. Perhaps the best example of tightening without overreaching is metered dose inhalers, a drug delivery device that used ODS chemicals as the propellant. Exemptions for metered dose inhalers 29 </p><p>, “There was no technical reason that the burst of innovation that began in 1986–1988 could not have happened several years earlier.”45 The barrier had not been the want of fundamental scientific or technical knowledge but instead the reluctance to do the hard work of development needed to make potential solutions actually useful. What made the difference were penalty defaults and government support of cooperation, and with them a shift, sector by sector, of industry interests in favor of a joint search for solutions 30</p><p>China 32</p><p>In the end, the high-level State Council asked the NEPA to convene a governmentwide cost-benefit analysis of the choices, and the outcome was to ratify the treaty—but only on the condition that agreement could be reached on what became the MLF mechanism for funding. With the MLF in place, cooperation with donors and technical experts helped the Ministry of Light Industry, NEPA, and their allies overcome early failures in implementation, strengthening their hand in domestic politics and reinforcing China’s commitment to the ozone regime.54 As capacities increased, the Chinese found projects that paid for themselves, reducing dependence on the MLF.5</p><p>The cooperative equilibrium that had come to dominate the domestic response in the United States and other Western countries to the ODS reached the crucial developing countries too.5 33</p><p>DuPont, the most visible of these firms, broke ranks with the rest of industry to demand a phaseout; destroying the ozone layer was a big liability for a firm that made most of its money in other kinds of chemicals. (It helped that the alternatives might prove more profitable.) Once there was one innovator, it was too costly for others to lag behind. And in countries that actively undermine the Montreal Protocol—Russia at first, but others later on, including India and China—the penalties were threats such as trade sanctions that came from other powerful governments, mainly in the industrialized world, that wanted Montreal to work and also wanted to make sure their home industries would not be undercut by violators overseas. 7 </p><p>Climate policy: they didn’t do much problem-solving 36</p><p>While penalty defaults had accumulated in the fifteen years it took to arrive at the ozone regime, nothing similar had happened with respect to climate. Efforts to establish a credible, global regime for regulating illegal logging and other threats to forests (a major source of global emissions) were a centerpiece of the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, for instance, but they failed—a sign to firms and governments on the front lines that they might not have to worry much about the consequences of their behavior. In the case of ozone, the high likelihood of regulation or reputational consequences for intransigence made inaction or active resistance a risky strategy. By contrast, there were few such expectations or incentives in the formation of the regime to slow global warming. Starting in the 1990s, European governments and activists at the forefront of the movement for a climate regime focused increasingly on the need for action; in time, they developed a few initiatives on their own to target climate-related activities such as bans as well as controls on imported tropical lumber and palm oil. But outside a few industries, few firms felt much need to change. In most industries, if firms discussed climate change at all, it was usually as a matter of corporate social responsibility and public relations, not a redirection of corporate strategy. (Today, climate penalty defaults are a lot bigger in a few places in the world—but only after more than three decades of policy efforts.) 36</p><p>Meanwhile, convening power over the climate negotiations—along with de facto veto power over their outcome—was passing to the developing countries, which were deeply skeptical of cooperation with multinational firms and the advanced countries in which they were headquartered.65 UNEP had played the central organizational role in the ozone negotiations; the activism of its largely scientific and technical staff appealed to counterparts the world over. Governments inclined to the same kind of activism on warming—member states of the European Union such as Germany, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom—sought to have UNEP organize the climate change regime as well. On the other hand, as domestic political support for action on environmental issues became more polarized, the United States had turned more cautious. It lobbied to have negotiations framed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which had been formed in 1988 to assess climate science and policy, in the hopes that talks would narrowly focus on scientific and technical issues—above all, on the economics of climate change.66 Developing countries, fearful that rich industrialized countries would use climate change to hold back their economic growth while disclaiming their own historical responsibilities for a warming world, rejected these alternatives.67 Instead, through a series of formal decisions, they placed authority for launching the negotiations in the UN General Assembly, where they could confidently exert control themselves.68 The developing countries had, in the 1960s, formed the G77 caucus to represent their interests in the UN General Assembly and outside it.69 The caucus was large and powerful, but it encompassed an unruly array of interests—from those of economic powers such as China with expansive industrial economies and export interests, to those of oil exporters that feared regulation of their product, to the world’s least developed countries, including low-lying island nations with little to export and literally everything to lose as the sea level rises with global warming.70 On one front, however, the developing countries were united: their determination that they themselves be exempted from emission controls and the full burden of responding to climate change be assigned to the advanced countries. In any case, since the UN General Assembly, by convention, makes all decisions by consensus, the climate change regime that would emerge did the same, thus giving each developing country a veto over any proposal, no matter its origin. The advanced countries had no choice but to go along. 37</p><p>https://www.oxfordhandbooks.com/view/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199560530.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780199560530-e-12</p>No children (leaf entity)