Version: 4 (current) | Updated: 11/13/2025, 6:20:06 AM
Added description
Each piece cites or quotes experts such as Mohamed El‑Erian, Michael Shurkin, and others, and references statistical data on broadband penetration, gas imports, and lithium production.
**File entities (metadata documents)**
@file_pinax:document {title:"Chartbook Newsletter: Geopolitics and International Relations", creator:@adam_tooze:person, created:@date_2022_01_12, subjects:[@geopolitics, @international_relations, @russia, @ukraine, @serbia, @italy, @turkey, @west_africa, @energy, @lithium, @inflation, @digital_economy, @mother_courage, @erdogan, @franglais]}
@file_46613593_lng:document {title:"Is the world sleepwalking into another gas crisis?", creator:@adam_tooze:person, created:@date_2022_01_12, subjects:[@lng, @gas_prices, @germany, @usa, @russia, @ukraine, @serbia, @italy, @turkey, @west_africa]}
@file_46861079_chartbook_68:document {title:"Chartbook #68 Putin's Challenge to Western hegemony – the 2022 edition", creator:@adam_tooze:person, created:@date_2022_01_12, subjects:[@putin, @russia, @ukraine, @geopolitics, @energy, @oil, @gas, @europe, @nato, @european_union]}
@file_46944104_top_links_49:document {title:"Top Links #49 Grandeur, Serbian lithium, Mother Courage & Erdogan in West Africa", creator:@adam_tooze:person, created:@date_2022_01_11, subjects:[@serbia, @lithium, @mother_courage, @erdogan, @west_africa, @inflation, @digital_lag, @cargill, @franglais]}
@file_46945045_serbian_lithium_mother_courage:document {title:"Serbian lithium, Mother Courage & Erdogan in West Africa", creator:@adam_tooze:person, created:@date_2022_01_11, subjects:[@serbia, @lithium, @mother_courage, @erdogan, @west_africa]}
@file_47016594_scrap:document {title:"Investors in the Russian economy – 2020 snapshot", creator:@adam_tooze:person, created:@date_2022_01_12, subjects:[@russia, @germany, @china, @usa, @italy, @india, @sweden, @agri_food, @manufacturing, @energy, @gas, @oil]}
@file_47125404_chartbook_69:document {title:"Chartbook #69 War in Sight? Russia‑Ukraine scenarios", creator:@adam_tooze:person, created:@date_2022_01_14, subjects:[@russia, @ukraine, @military, @nato, @sanctions, @energy, @gas, @oil, @lng]}
@file_47146096_chartbook_70:document {title:"Chartbook #70 Draghi for President?", creator:@adam_tooze:person, created:@date_2022_01_16, subjects:[@italy, @mario_draghi, @eurozone, @debt, @politics, @constitution, @european_union]}
**Core persons**
@adam_tooze:person {full_name:"Adam Tooze", role:"author, creator of Chartbook newsletters"}
@mohamed_el_erian:person {full_name:"Mohamed El‑Erian", role:"economist, quoted on inflation"}
@michael_shurkin:person {full_name:"Michael Shurkin", role:"journalist, quoted on French Concord over Djibouti"}
@ho_chi_minh:person {full_name:"Ho Chi Minh", aka:@nguyen_ai_quoc:person, role:"Vietnamese revolutionary, author of 1922 Franglais article"}
@tom_holland:person {full_name:"Tom Holland", role:"historian, quoted on Franglais ban"}
@michael_tanchum:person {full_name:"Michael Tanchum", role:"author of SWP paper on Erdogan’s West‑African ambition"}
@cargill:organization {full_name:"Cargill", type:"private company"}
@cargill_zimbabwe_notes:document {title:"Cargill printed Zimbabwean bank notes (early 2000s)", creator:@cargill:organization, created:@date_2000s, subjects:[@zimbabwe, @currency]}
@rio_tinto:organization {full_name:"Rio Tinto", type:"mining corporation"}
@jadar_lithium_project:project {title:"Jadar lithium project", location:@serbia:place, developer:@rio_tinto:organization, status:"contested"}
@erdogan:person {full_name:"Recep Erdogan", role:"President of Turkey"}
@yilport:organization {full_name:"Yilport", type:"Turkish port operator"}
@taranto_port:place {full_name:"Port of Taranto", country:@italy:place}
@tunisia:place {full_name:"Tunisia"}
@mario_draghi:person {full_name:"Mario Draghi", role:"former ECB President, Italian Prime Minister"}
@sergio_mattarella:person {full_name:"Sergio Mattarella", role:"President of Italy"}
@silvio_berlusconi:person {full_name:"Silvio Berlusconi", role:"former Italian Prime Minister"}
@michael_kofman:person {full_name:"Michael Kofman", role:"Russian military analyst"}
@rob_lee:person {full_name:"Rob Lee", role:"author, commentator on Russian markets"}
@timothy_ash:person {full_name:"Timothy Ash", role:"EM markets expert"}
@maria_shagina:person {full_name:"Maria Shagina", role:"senator, author of sanctions‑from‑hell list"}
@nat_vasilyeva:person {full_name:"Nataliya Vasilyeva", role:"journalist, quoted on Lavrov’s press conference"}
@alex_kokcharov:person {full_name:"Alex Kokcharov", role:"analyst, quoted on Russian market loss"}
@paul_becket:person {full_name:"Paul Becket", role:"journalist, US sanctions on pro‑Russian separatists"}
@andrew_lee:person {full_name:"Andrew Lee", role:"author, quoted on Russian compellence"}
@michael_mcfaul:person {full_name:"Michael McFaul", role:"former US ambassador to Russia"}
@brecht:person {full_name:"Bertolt Brecht", role:"playwright, author of Mother Courage"}
@helene_weigel:person {full_name:"Helene Weigel", role:"actress, starred in Mother Courage Berlin 1949"}
@dieter_grimm:person {full_name:"Dieter Grimm", role:"German constitutional judge"}
@massimo_fichera:person {full_name:"Massimo Fichera", role:"legal scholar"}
@mario_draghi:person {full_name:"Mario Draghi", role:"former ECB President, Italian PM"}
**Core places / jurisdictions**
@russia:place {full_name:"Russia"}
@ukraine:place {full_name:"Ukraine"}
@serbia:place {full_name:"Serbia"}
@italy:place {full_name:"Italy"}
@turkey:place {full_name:"Turkey"}
@west_africa:place {full_name:"West Africa"}
@germany:place {full_name:"Germany"}
@japan:place {full_name:"Japan"}
@mexico:place {full_name:"Mexico"}
@france:place {full_name:"France"}
@european_union:organization {full_name:"European Union"}
@nato:organization {full_name:"NATO"}
@europe:place {full_name:"Europe"}
@germany_broadband:statistic {description:"Germany has twice as many broadband subscriptions per 100 inhabitants as Japan; Mexico slightly lower"}
@japan_broadband:statistic {description:"Japan has twice as many broadband subscriptions per 100 inhabitants as Germany"}
@mexico_broadband:statistic {description:"Mexico’s broadband subscription rate barely exceeds that of Germany"}
@european_gas_storage:statistic {description:"EU gas storage 94 % full, above 90 % target for November"}
@european_gas_imports:statistic {description:"EU imports ~40 % of its gas from Russia"}
@european_gas_imports_2022:statistic {description:"EU gas imports from Russia fell to 30 % in 2022"}
@european_gas_imports_2021:statistic {description:"EU gas imports from Russia were ~40 % in 2021"}
@european_gas_imports_2020:statistic {description:"EU gas imports from Russia were ~40 % in 2020"}
@european_gas_imports_2019:statistic {description:"EU gas imports from Russia were ~40 % in 2019"}
@european_gas_imports_2018:statistic {description:"EU gas imports from Russia were ~40 % in 2018"}
@european_gas_imports_2017:statistic {description:"EU gas imports from Russia were ~40 % in 2017"}
@european_gas_imports_2016:statistic {description:"EU gas imports from Russia were ~40 % in 2016"}
@european_gas_imports_2015:statistic {description:"EU gas imports from Russia were ~40 % in 2015"}
@european_gas_imports_2014:statistic {description:"EU gas imports from Russia were ~40 % in 2014"}
@european_gas_imports_2013:statistic {description:"EU gas imports from Russia were ~40 % in 2013"}
@european_gas_imports_2012:statistic {description:"EU gas imports from Russia were ~40 % in 2012"}
@european_gas_imports_2011:statistic {description:"EU gas imports from Russia were ~40 % in 2011"}
@european_gas_imports_2010:statistic {description:"EU gas imports from Russia were ~40 % in 2010"}
**Core commodities / concepts**
@lng:commodity {full_name:"Liquefied Natural Gas"}
@gas:commodity {full_name:"Natural Gas"}
@oil:commodity {full_name:"Crude Oil"}
@energy:concept {description:"Broad concept covering oil, gas, electricity"}
@inflation:concept {description:"General rise in price levels"}
@digital_lag:concept {description:"Gap in digital adoption between Japan and Germany/Mexico"}
@franglais:concept {description:"Mix of French and English words; banned in France in 1922"}
@mother_courage:play {title:"Mother Courage and Her Children", author:@brecht:person, first_performance:@date_1949_01_11, location:@berlin:place}
@berlin:place {full_name:"Berlin"}
@nord_stream_2:project {title:"Nord Stream 2 pipeline", status:"on hold", location:@germany:place}
@eurozone:concept {description:"Euro‑area monetary union"}
@eurozone_debt:concept {description:"Collective debt of euro‑area members"}
@eurozone_gas_dependency:concept {description:"EU reliance on Russian gas"}
@sanctions_from_hell:document {title:"US Senators’ “Sanctions from Hell” package (2022)", creator:@maria_shagina:person, created:@date_2022_01_12}
@fortress_russia:concept {description:"Russia’s strategy to reduce reliance on global finance"}
@compellence_strategy:concept {description:"Moscow’s shift from deterrence to compellence"}
@european_security_project:concept {description:"EU’s “security of the European project” thesis"}
@material_constitution:concept {description:"Four‑fold ordering of political unity, institutions, social relations, telos"}
@european_gas_market:concept {description:"EU gas market, price dynamics, storage, LNG imports"}
@european_gas_price_spike:concept {description:"Potential gas price spike to €300 MWh in a winter crisis"}
@european_gas_price_current:statistic {value:"~€180 MWh in Dec 2021"}
@european_gas_price_forecast:statistic {value:"~€200 MWh in early 2022"}
@european_gas_price_peak:statistic {value:"~€300 MWh in a severe winter scenario"}
**Key relationships extracted from the content**
@pinax -> created_by -> @adam_tooze
@pinax -> has_subject -> @geopolitics
@pinax -> has_subject -> @international_relations
@pinax -> has_subject -> @russia
@pinax -> has_subject -> @ukraine
@pinax -> has_subject -> @serbia
@pinax -> has_subject -> @italy
@pinax -> has_subject -> @turkey
@pinax -> has_subject -> @west_africa
@pinax -> has_subject -> @energy
@pinax -> has_subject -> @lithium
@pinax -> has_subject -> @inflation
@pinax -> has_subject -> @digital_economy
@pinax -> has_subject -> @mother_courage
@pinax -> has_subject -> @erdogan
@pinax -> has_subject -> @franglais
@file_46613593_lng -> documents -> @lng_article:document {title:"Is the world sleepwalking into another gas crisis?"}
@lng_article -> discusses -> @lng
@lng_article -> discusses -> @gas_prices
@lng_article -> mentions -> @germany_broadband
@lng_article -> mentions -> @japan_broadband
@lng_article -> mentions -> @mexico_broadband
@lng_article -> mentions -> @serbia_lithium_project
@lng_article -> mentions -> @cargill_zimbabwe_notes
@lng_article -> mentions -> @erdogan_ambition
@lng_article -> mentions -> @franglais_ban
@lng_article -> mentions -> @mother_courage
@lng_article -> mentions -> @nord_stream_2
@lng_article -> mentions -> @european_gas_market
@file_46861079_chartbook_68 -> documents -> @putin_challenge_article:document {title:"Putin's Challenge to Western hegemony"}
@putin_challenge_article -> analyses -> @russia
@putin_challenge_article -> analyses -> @ukraine
@putin_challenge_article -> analyses -> @geopolitics
@putin_challenge_article -> analyses -> @energy
@putin_challenge_article -> analyses -> @oil
@putin_challenge_article -> analyses -> @gas
@putin_challenge_article -> analyses -> @nato
@putin_challenge_article -> analyses -> @european_union
@file_46944104_top_links_49 -> documents -> @serbia_lithium_article:document {title:"Serbian lithium project (Jadar)"}
@serbia_lithium_article -> reports_on -> @jadar_lithium_project
@serbia_lithium_article -> quotes -> @alexander_gabuev:person {quote:"Russia’s foreign exchange reserves are $400‑600 bn"}
@serbia_lithium_article -> mentions -> @cargill_zimbabwe_notes
@file_46944104_top_links_49 -> documents -> @inflation_worries_article:document {title:"Inflation worries (Mohamed El‑Erian)"}
@inflation_worries_article -> quotes -> @mohamed_el_erian
@file_46944104_top_links_49 -> documents -> @digital_lag_article:document {title:"Digital lag (Japan vs Germany/Mexico)"}
@digital_lag_article -> cites_statistics -> @japan_broadband, @germany_broadband, @mexico_broadband
@file_46944104_top_links_49 -> documents -> @cargill_currency_article:document {title:"Cargill printed Zimbabwean bank notes"}
@cargill_currency_article -> authored_by -> @cargill
@file_46944104_top_links_49 -> documents -> @erdogan_ambition_article:document {title:"Erdogan’s infrastructural ambition in West Africa"}
@erdogan_ambition_article -> authored_by -> @michael_tanchum:person
@erdogan_ambition_article -> mentions -> @yilport
@erdogan_ambition_article -> mentions -> @taranto_port
@erdogan_ambition_article -> mentions -> @tunisia
@file_46944104_top_links_49 -> documents -> @franglais_ban_article:document {title:"Franglais ban (1922)"}
@franglais_ban_article -> quotes -> @tom_holland:person
@franglais_ban_article -> quotes -> @ho_chi_minh:person
@file_46944104_top_links_49 -> documents -> @mother_courage_article:document {title:"Mother Courage first Berlin performance 1949"}
@mother_courage_article -> authored_by -> @brecht:person
@mother_courage_article -> starred -> @helene_weigel:person
@file_47016594_scrap -> reports_on -> @german_investments_in_russia
@file_47016594_scrap -> reports_on -> @china_investments_in_russia
@file_47016594_scrap -> reports_on -> @usa_investments_in_russia
@file_47016594_scrap -> reports_on -> @italian_investments_in_russia
@file_47016594_scrap -> reports_on -> @indian_investments_in_russia
@file_47016594_scrap -> reports_on -> @swedish_investments_in_russia
@file_47016594_scrap -> highlights_sector -> @agri_food
@file_47016594_scrap -> highlights_sector -> @manufacturing
@file_47125404_chartbook_69 -> documents -> @war_scenarios_article:document {title:"Russia‑Ukraine war scenarios"}
@war_scenarios_article -> tracks -> @military_trains
@war_scenarios_article -> cites -> @rob_lee:person (military equipment sightings)
@war_scenarios_article -> cites -> @nat_vasilyeva (Lavrov “patience has run out”)
@war_scenarios_article -> cites -> @michael_kofman (presentation)
@war_scenarios_article -> cites -> @michael_mcfaul (NATO expansion discussion)
@war_scenarios_article -> cites -> @timothy_ash (market outlook)
@war_scenarios_article -> cites -> @alex_kokcharov (Russian market loss $40 bn)
@war_scenarios_article -> cites -> @paul_becket (US sanctions on separatists)
@war_scenarios_article -> cites -> @andrew_lee (Russia’s compellence)
@file_47146096_chartbook_70 -> documents -> @draghi_presidency_article:document {title:"Draghi for President?"}
@draghi_presidency_article -> analyses -> @italy_debt (@eurozone_debt)
@draghi_presidency_article -> discusses -> @eurozone
@dragui_presidency_article -> discusses -> @constitution (Italian)
@draghi_presidency_article -> references -> @sergio_mattarella (President)
@draghi_presidency_article -> references -> @silvio_berlusconi (political context)
@draghi_presidency_article -> cites -> @dieter_grimm (over‑constitutionalisation)
@draghi_presidency_article -> cites -> @massimo_fichera (material constitution)
@draghi_presidency_article -> cites -> @mario_draghi (role)
**Additional cross‑file links**
@cargill_zimbabwe_notes -> cited_in -> @file_46944104_top_links_49
@jadar_lithium_project -> cited_in -> @file_46944104_top_links_49
@mother_courage -> cited_in -> @file_46944104_top_links_49, @file_47146096_chartbook_70 (historical reference)
@franglais -> cited_in -> @file_46944104_top_links_49
@erdogan -> cited_in -> @file_46944104_top_links_49, @file_47146096_chartbook_70 (regional ambition)
@nord_stream_2 -> cited_in -> @file_46613593_lng, @file_47125404_chartbook_69 (energy security)
@european_gas_storage -> cited_in -> @file_46613593_lng, @file_47125404_chartbook_69 (price risk)
@sanctions_from_hell -> cited_in -> @file_47125404_chartbook_69 (policy risk)
@fortress_russia -> cited_in -> @file_47125404_chartbook_69 (Russia’s resilience)
@compellence_strategy -> cited_in -> @file_47125404_chartbook_69 (Russian strategy)
@material_constitution -> cited_in -> @file_47146096_chartbook_70 (Italian constitutional debate)
**Summary of major entities & their core connections**
- **Geopolitics & Energy**: @russia ↔ @ukraine (conflict); @russia → @european_gas_imports (≈40 %); @nord_stream_2 & @lng ↔ EU energy security; @serbia ↔ @jadar_lithium_project (Rio Tinto); @turkey ↔ @erdogan_ambition (West‑African ports).
- **Economic & Financial**: @eurozone_debt (Italy $2.9 tn); @fortress_russia (high reserves, low US‑Treasury holdings); @sanctions_from_hell (US‑EU policy response).
- **Political & Constitutional**: @mario_draghi ↔ @italy (PM → potential President); @sergio_mattarella ↔ @italian_constitution (presidential powers); @dieter_grimm ↔ @overconstitutionalisation (EU‑Italy tension); @massimo_fichera ↔ @material_constitution (four‑fold ordering).
- **Cultural references**: @mother_courage (Brecht play, 1949 Berlin); @franglais (1922 French language ban).
- **Market & Commodity dynamics**: @lng_price_spike (≈€200‑300 MWh); @gas_price_current (≈€180 MWh); @oil_price_rise (seven‑year high).
These triples capture the principal entities, their types, and the most salient relationships drawn from the archival content.<!--
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<h1>Is the world sleepwalking into another gas crisis? </h1><h2>Prices could once again spike this winter</h2><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-a5a!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd07ffb04-103f-4ec3-8894-2f9a915462fa_1280x720.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-a5a!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd07ffb04-103f-4ec3-8894-2f9a915462fa_1280x720.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-a5a!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd07ffb04-103f-4ec3-8894-2f9a915462fa_1280x720.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-a5a!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd07ffb04-103f-4ec3-8894-2f9a915462fa_1280x720.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-a5a!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd07ffb04-103f-4ec3-8894-2f9a915462fa_1280x720.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d07ffb04-103f-4ec3-8894-2f9a915462fa_1280x720.jpeg" width="1280" height="720" data-attrs="{"src":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d07ffb04-103f-4ec3-8894-2f9a915462fa_1280x720.jpeg","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":720,"width":1280,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":null,"alt":"Aerial view of two liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers","title":null,"type":null,"href":null,"belowTheFold":false,"topImage":true,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="Aerial view of two liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers" title="Aerial view of two liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-a5a!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd07ffb04-103f-4ec3-8894-2f9a915462fa_1280x720.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-a5a!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd07ffb04-103f-4ec3-8894-2f9a915462fa_1280x720.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-a5a!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd07ffb04-103f-4ec3-8894-2f9a915462fa_1280x720.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-a5a!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd07ffb04-103f-4ec3-8894-2f9a915462fa_1280x720.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">Photograph: Getty Images</figcaption></figure></div><p>Sep 26th 2024</p><p>SaveShare</p><p>Give</p><p>Gastech, a recent gas-industry jamboree in Houston, was full of enthusiasm. Amid a blizzard of deals by energy ministers and fossil-fuel giants, delegates cheered: their product is set for a starring role in the green transition. Yet there was uncertainty, too. Opprobrium was heaped on President Joe Biden, who has paused permits for American export terminals of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Insiders also worry that the global lng market, which became vital to Europe and Asia after the war in Ukraine began, could soon face its first true test. With demand rising and supply failing to come on stream, a new scramble for gas could be in the offing.</p><p>During the worst of the energy crisis, it looked as if 2025 would be the year of salvation. Russia had shut pipelines that supplied more than 40% of European gas; if the continent survived two winters, the thinking went, then it would be out of trouble, as big lng projects in America and Qatar flooded the market. In fact, Europe did better than survive. It is approaching its third winter since war struck with gas-storage facilities 94% full, ahead of its aim for them to be 90% full by November. Vast purchases of LNG, which last year accounted for 60% of the bloc’s gas imports, have helped achieve this.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ODcr!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F378f2085-6d55-4032-bd92-c0be9b43938e_608x1178.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ODcr!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F378f2085-6d55-4032-bd92-c0be9b43938e_608x1178.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ODcr!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F378f2085-6d55-4032-bd92-c0be9b43938e_608x1178.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ODcr!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F378f2085-6d55-4032-bd92-c0be9b43938e_608x1178.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ODcr!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F378f2085-6d55-4032-bd92-c0be9b43938e_608x1178.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/378f2085-6d55-4032-bd92-c0be9b43938e_608x1178.png" width="608" height="1178" data-attrs="{"src":"https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/378f2085-6d55-4032-bd92-c0be9b43938e_608x1178.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":1178,"width":608,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":null,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":null,"href":null,"belowTheFold":false,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ODcr!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F378f2085-6d55-4032-bd92-c0be9b43938e_608x1178.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ODcr!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F378f2085-6d55-4032-bd92-c0be9b43938e_608x1178.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ODcr!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F378f2085-6d55-4032-bd92-c0be9b43938e_608x1178.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ODcr!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F378f2085-6d55-4032-bd92-c0be9b43938e_608x1178.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">Chart: The Economist</figcaption></figure></div><p>Instead, however, the market has turned fretful. LNG prices in Asia, the global benchmark, hover above $13 per million British thermal units (mBtu), higher than at almost any time bar the 2022 panic. One concern is a looming drop in temperatures. The northern hemisphere’s past two winters have been mild, but the coming one is unlikely to be so clement. “Just a normal winter would feel very cold by recent standards,” notes a gas trader. A frigid season would be doubly bad for Europe. It would require more gas not just for heating but also for power: cold weather tends to come with a lacklustre breeze, hampering wind farms. North-east Asia should also be colder than in recent winters. An extreme season like that of 2021—when Beijing endured -20°C temperatures in January, its coldest in 50 years—is always possible.</p><p>Sindre Knutsson of Rystad Energy, a consultancy, reckons that a big chill in Europe and Asia would create extra demand for gas of 21 billion cubic metres (bcm) and 15 bcm respectively, or 4-8% of the regions’ imports last year. Since Europe is maxing out piped imports—and Asia, aside from China, has negligible piped trade—the remaining amount would need to come from seaborne shipments. That could create demand for an additional 26m tonnes of LNG, equivalent to 7% of globally traded volumes last year.</p><p>The second worry is that Europe’s piped imports could fall further. Under a five-year deal due to expire in December, Russia still sends gas via Ukraine to central Europe. These flows have fallen by more than half since 2021, but still accounted for 15 bcm last year. Ukraine has already said it will not negotiate a new deal.</p><p>So Europe and Ukraine are discussing workarounds. The most realistic is a “swap” with Azerbaijan, whereby Russian gas coming through Ukraine would be relabelled as Azerbaijani while a portion of Azerbaijani gas would become Russian. Azerbaijan would then be free to buy that gas for itself or to pipe it to Turkey. In this scenario Europe would, however, still be short of gas—it would receive as much via Ukraine as previously, but less from Azerbaijan. Moreover, because energy is cheap in Azerbaijan, Russia would have to agree to sell to it cut-price, or Azerbaijan would have to pay over the odds. And Russia could still decide to stop deliveries of “Azerbaijani” gas to Europe any day. Talks are showing little evidence of progress.</p><p>Weather and geopolitics could therefore create demand for a lot of additional LNG cargoes, and do so at a time when the market will not be as flush as had once been anticipated. Russia’s flagship Arctic LNG 2 terminal, initially due to export up to 13m tonnes per annum (mtpa) of LNG by next year—equivalent when superchilled to 18 bcm of gas—is delayed and devoid of clients after America slapped sanctions on the project and any vessel that docks there. A plan for Egypt to become a reliable LNG supplier to Europe has crumbled. The country’s gas output is tailing off much faster than expected.</p><p>Yet America has been the biggest disappointment. Mr Biden’s moratorium will be a blow to supply, but only in a few years, since it applies solely to new projects. America’s immediate headache is the bankruptcy of the lead contractor on Texas’s Golden Pass project, one of two big terminals meant to come online next year, which could cause delays of six months or more. Alongside hiccups at smaller projects, this means that out of the 25-30 mtpa of new capacity expected by 2025, only 15 mtpa may materialise.</p><p>What would a perfect storm look like? The worst-case scenario would include sub-zero temperatures in Europe as soon as early December and Russian gas vanishing by January 1st. The continent would not run out of fuel in the short run: in addition to record stocks, it has an abundance of nuclear power (many French reactors, shut in 2022, are back in action) and hydro power (after biblical rains). But it would see its gas reserves drained much faster, leading to the first big restocking exercise since 2022. This time Europe’s appetite would be even bigger: having expanded its regasification capacity by one-fifth, it is less constrained in its shopping ambitions.</p><p>Europe would have to compete with Asia for LNG cargoes, buoying spot prices. Anne-Sophie Corbeau of Columbia University reckons they could easily reach $16 per mbtu early in the year. Richer Asian countries and China would be largely cushioned, because they buy much of their LNG under long-term contracts that are indexed to the oil price. Yet nearly all Europe’s purchases are either made on the spot market or indexed to spot prices, and the continent cannot live without gas, having retired most of its coal-power plants. Governments, utilities or consumers—or a mixture of all three—would have no choice but to bear the higher cost.</p><p>Poor, populous emerging economies may not be able to afford it at all. Drawn by lower prices since last year, a few have recently returned to the market, or even imported LNG for the first time. A price spike would surely put an abrupt end to this development. Many would be forced to switch back to coal; some may be forced into rolling blackouts. The wait for fresh supplies could be a long one. ■</p><p><em>For more expert analysis of the biggest stories in economics, finance and markets, sign up to <a href="https://www.economist.com/newsletters/money-talks">Money Talks</a>, our weekly subscriber-only newsletter.</em></p><p>https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-04/u-s-lng-exports-top-rivals-for-first-time-on-shale-revolution?sref=wOrDP8KX</p><p>https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=50598</p><p>Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of <a href="https://www.ft.com">FT.com</a> <a href="https://help.ft.com/help/legal-privacy/terms-conditions/">T&Cs</a> and <a href="https://help.ft.com/help/legal-privacy/copyright/copyright-policy/">Copyright Policy</a>. Email <a href="mailto:licensing@ft.com">licensing@ft.com</a> to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be <a href="https://www.ft.com/tour">found here</a>. <br><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/e7f3681f-3f0a-40de-ab65-65f62c7d6acb">https://www.ft.com/content/e7f3681f-3f0a-40de-ab65-65f62c7d6acb</a><br><br>Intense competition between developers and escalating costs are complicating efforts to bring new liquefied natural gas projects online in the US, even as the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine creates huge appetite for American fuel exports. A new wave of multibillion-dollar LNG projects on the US Gulf Coast has gathered pace over the past year as the energy upheaval triggered by the war prompts a global dash to secure fossil fuels from vast Texas shale fields. Since Moscow began its full-blown invasion of its neighbour 14 months ago, four projects, together worth $40bn, have reached the crucial “final investment decision” milestone. But others have faced repeated delays as they vie with each other to secure the long-term purchase agreements needed to underwrite their projects and contend with sharply escalating construction and financing costs. “It’s dramatically more expensive,” said Charif Souki, who pioneered the development of the US LNG export industry more than a decade ago. “There are fewer and fewer construction companies that can actually handle these kinds of loads. But you have to confront . . . your supply chain issues and all the cost inflation.” Souki, who now heads up developer Tellurian, has seen his $25bn Driftwood development flounder after a fundraising failure last year led pivotal buyers to abandon the project. This month it announced plans for the sale and leaseback of land as it scrambles to raise funds. Two other projects that developers had hoped would reach FID by the end of March — Energy Transfer’s Lake Charles conversion and Next Decade’s Rio Grande terminal — have been delayed to later in the year. The Biden administration and European Commission have made the expansion of US LNG exports a cornerstone of securing energy supplies in Europe as the continent looks to purge Russian gas from its national economies. Projects under construction or entering service will increase US capacity by roughly 70 per cent once they all come online by 2027, making the country the world’s pre-eminent LNG superpower: this year the US will leapfrog Australia and Qatar to boast the world’s biggest export capacity. If every potential project in the pipeline was to come online, they would triple US capacity by 2030, according to Wood Mackenzie. But analysts expect many of these to fail, as a race to build them in time intensifies and funding for long-term fossil fuel projects in a decarbonising world becomes harder to secure. Reaching the FID stage requires securing enough solid deals to underwrite the financing needed to pay for its construction. As costs rise, that is proving tricky. “You’ve seen a really competitive market among different developers,” said Giles Farrer, head of LNG research at Wood Mackenzie. “So to secure customers, companies have bid right down to the margin.” Now many have to contend with rampant supply chain inflation pushing up the cost of construction, while rising interest rates have increased financing costs. That would probably force some to renegotiate offtake deals, said Farrer, delaying projects and allowing others to muscle in. But even as some struggle, other more established players have been successful in capitalising on the thirst for US molecules and locking in contracts that have allowed them to plough ahead with big new projects. Sempra Energy last month pushed ahead with a plan to build a 13.5mn tonnes a year plant in Port Arthur, in south-east Texas; a week earlier Venture Global moved forward with the second phase of its 20mn tonnes a year Plaquemines facility in Louisiana, having given the green light to phase 1 in May; last summer Cheniere Energy gave approval to a 10mn tonnes a year expansion of its facility at Corpus Christi in Texas. “You have three leaders in the clubhouse, if you will, that have made the most of the moment — and others would like to grab some of that success,” said Kyle Wamstad, a partner at law firm Holland & Knight. “It’s one of those things where success follows success . . . if you don’t get that first one in the door, it can linger.” US LNG projects in the works Project Operator Status Capacity (mn t/y) Earliest start-up NFE Louisiana FLNG New Fortress Energy Under Construction 2.8 2024 Plaquemines LNG Phase 1 Venture Global Under Construction 13.33 2024 Golden Pass LNG QatarEnergy/ ExxonMobil Under Construction 18.09 2024 Corpus Christi Stage 3 Cheniere Under Construction 10.43 2025 Plaquemines LNG Phase 2 Venture Global Under Construction 6.67 2026 Port Arthur LNG Phase 1 Sempra Infrastructure Under Construction 13.5 2027 Rio Grande LNG Phase 1 NextDecade Possible 16.2 2027 CP2 LNG Phase 1 Venture Global Possible 10 2027 Cameron LNG Phase 2 Sempra Infrastructure Possible 6.75 2028 Corpus Christi Midscale T8&9 Cheniere Possible 2.98 2028 Commonwealth LNG Commonwealth LNG Possible 8.4 2028 CP2 LNG Phase 2 Venture Global Possible 10 2028 Delfin LNG Delfin Midstream Possible 3.5 2028 Driftwood LNG Tellurian Possible 11 2028 Freeport Train 4 Freeport LNG Possible 5.1 2028 Lake Charles LNG Energy Transfer Possible 16.44 2028 Sabine Pass Phase 5 Cheniere Possible 20 2029 Source: Wood Mackenzie While an increasing number of so-called portfolio players — interested in trading LNG rather than consuming it — has broadened the scope of potential buyers, securing the necessary commitment from offtakers has proved increasingly tricky. Financiers have been forced to weigh up the need for long-term fossil fuel infrastructure as the world looks to rapidly decarbonise and stem climate change. The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warned last month that global warming was “more likely than not” to reach a 1.5C rise since pre-industrial time in the near-term. Many European buyers, anxious to pin down near-term LNG supplies, are hesitant to lock in the sort of multi-decade contracts that developers need in order to secure financing for their projects. Recommended LexOil & Gas industry US natural gas prices: déjà vu all over again Premium content “I think buyers would love to sign deals for five years, but projects get financed on 20-year deals for sellers,” said Ira Joseph, global fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University. “Each side is perceiving their needs very, very differently of what they deem as energy security.” The US government has been keen to emphasise that a lack of permitting is not the hold-up. There are more than 100mn tonnes a year of projects fully certified to move forward. US energy secretary Jennifer Granholm last month boasted of a “plethora of opportunity for the liquefiers to be able to export”. But securing offtake agreements to underwrite financing has become a much tougher challenge than getting permits — once the golden ticket to getting a project off the ground. “They used to be viewed as what was necessary and would trigger everything else that comes afterwards — whereas now that’s not enough,” said Wamstad at Holland & Knight. “[A handful of] FIDs and substantial debt financing for recent LNG projects does not mean a green light for everybody,” he said. “As soon as you look more like a driftwood or you have some hiccups or issues, there’s always somebody else that’s at least advertising themselves to be better positioned to step into those shoe</p><!--
{
"post_id": "46861079.chartbook-68-putins-challenge-to",
"post_date": "2022-01-12T17:29:56.793Z",
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"email_sent_at": "2022-01-12T17:29:56.982Z",
"inbox_sent_at": "2022-01-12T17:29:56.982Z",
"type": "newsletter",
"audience": "everyone",
"title": "Chartbook #68 Putin's Challenge to Western hegemony - the 2022 edition. ",
"subtitle": ""
}
-->
<p></p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{"url":"https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe now","action":null,"class":null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p>As NATO meets to discuss the tension on the Russian border to Ukraine, and the papers fill with denunciations of Putin’s aggression, I still find it useful to return to the framework I developed in <em>Crashed </em>for analyzing the intersection of geopolitics and economics and the rise of Russia as a challenger. This framework consists of three basic propositions.</p><p>The first is that though it is tempting to dismiss Putin’s regime as a hangover from another era, or the harbinger of a new wave of authoritarianism, it has the weight that it does and commands our attention because global growth and global integration have enabled the Kremlin to accumulate considerable power. The sophistication of Russian weaponry and its cyber capacity betoken the underlying technological potential of the broader Russian economy. But what generates the cash is global demand for Russian oil and gas. And Putin’s regime has made use of this. It is reductive to think of Russia as a petrostate, but if you do indulge in that simplification you must recognize that it is a strategic petrostate more like UAE or Saudi than an Iraq, or Algeria. </p><p>Russia is a strategic petrostate in a double sense. It is too big a part of global energy markets to permit Iran-style sanctions against Russian energy sales. Russia accounts for about 40 percent of Europe’s gas imports. Comprehensive sanctions would be too destabilizing to global energy markets and that would blow back on the United States in a significant way. China could not standby and allow it to happen. Furthermore, Moscow, unlike some major oil and gas exporters, has proven capable of accumulating a substantial share of the fossil fuel proceeds. Since the struggles of the early 2000s, the Kremlin has asserted its control. In the alliance with the oligarchs it calls the shots and has brokered a deal that provides strategic resources for the state and stability and an acceptable standard of living for the bulk of the population. According to the WID-er data after the giant surge in inequality in the 1990s, Russia’s social structure has broadly stabilized.</p><p>Putin’s regime has managed this whilst operating a conservative fiscal and monetary policy. Currently, the Russian budget is set to balance at an oil price of only $44. That enables the accumulation of considerable reserves. </p><p>If you want a single variable that sums up Russia’s position as a strategic petrostate, it is Russia’s foreign exchange reserve. </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Fxea!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff3540979-81d1-4c38-a3ec-ded7fc101c83_1484x670.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Fxea!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff3540979-81d1-4c38-a3ec-ded7fc101c83_1484x670.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Fxea!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff3540979-81d1-4c38-a3ec-ded7fc101c83_1484x670.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Fxea!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff3540979-81d1-4c38-a3ec-ded7fc101c83_1484x670.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Fxea!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff3540979-81d1-4c38-a3ec-ded7fc101c83_1484x670.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f3540979-81d1-4c38-a3ec-ded7fc101c83_1484x670.png" width="1100" height="497" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f3540979-81d1-4c38-a3ec-ded7fc101c83_1484x670.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":497,"width":1100,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":68455,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":false,"topImage":true,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Fxea!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff3540979-81d1-4c38-a3ec-ded7fc101c83_1484x670.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Fxea!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff3540979-81d1-4c38-a3ec-ded7fc101c83_1484x670.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Fxea!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff3540979-81d1-4c38-a3ec-ded7fc101c83_1484x670.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Fxea!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff3540979-81d1-4c38-a3ec-ded7fc101c83_1484x670.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source: <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/foreign-exchange-reserves">Trading Economics </a></p><p>Hovering between $400 and $600 billion they are amongst the largest in the world, after those of China, Japan and Switzerland.</p><p>This is what gives Putin his freedom of strategic maneuver. Crucially, foreign exchange reserves give the regime the capacity to withstand sanctions on the rest of the economy. They can be used to slow a run on the rouble. They can also be used to offset any currency mismatch on private sector balance sheets. As large as a government’s foreign exchange reserves may be, it will be of little help if private debts are in foreign currency. Russia’s private dollar liabilities were painfully exposed in 2008 and 2014, but have since been restructured and restrained. </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QyQo!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb22a9e4f-f61d-4acc-aeda-cde0bd66388e_1648x1126.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QyQo!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb22a9e4f-f61d-4acc-aeda-cde0bd66388e_1648x1126.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QyQo!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb22a9e4f-f61d-4acc-aeda-cde0bd66388e_1648x1126.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QyQo!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb22a9e4f-f61d-4acc-aeda-cde0bd66388e_1648x1126.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QyQo!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb22a9e4f-f61d-4acc-aeda-cde0bd66388e_1648x1126.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b22a9e4f-f61d-4acc-aeda-cde0bd66388e_1648x1126.png" width="1100" height="752" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b22a9e4f-f61d-4acc-aeda-cde0bd66388e_1648x1126.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":752,"width":1100,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":278435,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QyQo!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb22a9e4f-f61d-4acc-aeda-cde0bd66388e_1648x1126.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QyQo!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb22a9e4f-f61d-4acc-aeda-cde0bd66388e_1648x1126.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QyQo!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb22a9e4f-f61d-4acc-aeda-cde0bd66388e_1648x1126.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QyQo!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb22a9e4f-f61d-4acc-aeda-cde0bd66388e_1648x1126.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source: <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1049289/russia-external-debt-by-sector/">Statista</a></p><p>According to <a href="https://think.ing.com/snaps/russia-corporate-foreign-debt-steady-but-equity-keeps-leaking/">data released by the Bank of Russia</a>, Nominal foreign debt of banks and non-financial companies (corporate foreign debt) increased by US$6bn to US$394bn in 2Q21 (c.25% of GDP), easily covered by the foreign exchange reserves.</p><p>This strong financial balance means that Putin’s Russia will never experience the kind of comprehensive financial and political crisis that shook the state in 1998. </p><p>Nor was it by accident that it was as those foreign exchange reserves approached their first peak in 2008 that Putin began to articulate his determination to end the period of Russia’s geopolitical retreat. This is the second key element of the diagnosis.</p><p>Putin laid out his position in no uncertain terms in his <a href="http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/24034">sensational speech</a> to the Munich Security Conference in February 2007 in which he outlined his comprehensive critique of Western power and Russia’s refusal to accept any further eastward expansion of NATO. </p><p>Today, China’s fundamental opposition to American hegemony articulated from within the global economy dominates the global scene. But the first to expose the fact that global growth might produce not harmony and convergence but conflict and contradiction, was Putin in 2007-8. </p><p>Putin’s stance produces outrage in the West. His assertion of Russia’s autonomy by all means necessary exposes the vanity of the post-Cold War order, that assumed that the boundary between different forms of power - hard, soft and financial - would be drawn by the Western powers, the United States and the EU, on their own terms and to suit their own strengths and preferences. The West has itself always employed a blend of strategies - financial pressure, soft power and military force - to achieve its goals. Russia’s challenge has forced a reshuffling of that pack and new combinations of diplomatic persuasion, soft power, financial and ultimately military threats and coercion. That this should be happening in Europe compounded the scandal. </p><p>The third essential point is that the consequences of this resurgence of Russian power depend on where you are and how you are set up to meet the challenge. </p><p>In Eastern Europe the crucial question is how Russia’s neighbors, whether former Soviet Republics, or former Warsaw Pact members navigated the staggering economic and social shocks of the 1990s. In this regard, Poland and the Baltics are at one end of the spectrum. They have rebounded from the 1990s crisis, have relatively high-functioning post-Communist polities and gained membership in NATO and EU in early waves of expansion. Ukraine is, in every respect, at the opposite end of the spectrum.</p><p>What makes Ukraine into the object of Russian power is not just it geography, but the division of its politics, the factional quality of its elite and its economic failure. </p><p>The end of the Soviet Union may have given Ukraine independence but for Ukrainian society at large it has been an economic disaster. Like Russia, Ukraine suffered a devastating shock in the 1990s. GDP per capita in constant PPP terms halved between 1990 and 1996. It then recovered to 80 percent of its 1990 level in 2007 and has stagnated ever since. Thirty years on, Ukraine’s GDP per capita (in constant PPP dollars as measured by the World Bank) is 20 percent lower than in 1990. </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!E1j4!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb9c2e0b9-5c6e-4422-a810-e0556e12425d_1260x1232.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!E1j4!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb9c2e0b9-5c6e-4422-a810-e0556e12425d_1260x1232.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!E1j4!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb9c2e0b9-5c6e-4422-a810-e0556e12425d_1260x1232.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!E1j4!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb9c2e0b9-5c6e-4422-a810-e0556e12425d_1260x1232.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!E1j4!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb9c2e0b9-5c6e-4422-a810-e0556e12425d_1260x1232.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b9c2e0b9-5c6e-4422-a810-e0556e12425d_1260x1232.png" width="1100" height="1076" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b9c2e0b9-5c6e-4422-a810-e0556e12425d_1260x1232.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":1076,"width":1100,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":190947,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!E1j4!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb9c2e0b9-5c6e-4422-a810-e0556e12425d_1260x1232.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!E1j4!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb9c2e0b9-5c6e-4422-a810-e0556e12425d_1260x1232.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!E1j4!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb9c2e0b9-5c6e-4422-a810-e0556e12425d_1260x1232.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!E1j4!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb9c2e0b9-5c6e-4422-a810-e0556e12425d_1260x1232.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source: World Bank </p><p>Ukraine’s experience contrasts sharply with that of Russian Federation which since the 1998 crisis has seen much more dramatic and sustained recovery. It also contrasts painfully with the growth trajectory of Ukraine’s neighbors Turkey and Poland. </p><p>GDP per capita numbers paint a picture of painful stagnation. In addition, Ukraine’s weakness have left it vulnerable to repeated and painful foreign exchange and financial crises, best summarized by the erratic chart of the hryvina’s devaluation against the dollar and euro. There were big shocks in the late 1990s. In 2008. In 2014-5. Since 2015 the hryvina has swung around a new plateau. Given the depreciated level of the currency, in percentage terms the swings are now smaller. But Ukraine continues to be a fragile ward of the IMF. </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VgFp!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F02db39e6-551e-476e-b9e0-5cd29ab7bfd0_1696x1306.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VgFp!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F02db39e6-551e-476e-b9e0-5cd29ab7bfd0_1696x1306.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VgFp!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F02db39e6-551e-476e-b9e0-5cd29ab7bfd0_1696x1306.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VgFp!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F02db39e6-551e-476e-b9e0-5cd29ab7bfd0_1696x1306.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VgFp!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F02db39e6-551e-476e-b9e0-5cd29ab7bfd0_1696x1306.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/02db39e6-551e-476e-b9e0-5cd29ab7bfd0_1696x1306.png" width="1100" height="847" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/02db39e6-551e-476e-b9e0-5cd29ab7bfd0_1696x1306.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":847,"width":1100,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":414647,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VgFp!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F02db39e6-551e-476e-b9e0-5cd29ab7bfd0_1696x1306.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VgFp!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F02db39e6-551e-476e-b9e0-5cd29ab7bfd0_1696x1306.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VgFp!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F02db39e6-551e-476e-b9e0-5cd29ab7bfd0_1696x1306.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VgFp!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F02db39e6-551e-476e-b9e0-5cd29ab7bfd0_1696x1306.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source: <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_hryvnia">Wikipedia</a></p><p>Russian nationalist simply dismisses Ukraine’s claim to statehood altogether. That is propaganda. But what is clearly true is that Ukraine’e elite have not come up with a formula for delivering the material basis of legitimacy, i.e. a minimum of stability and sustained economic growth. Economic frustration compounds the divisions between regions, language groups, factional interests. Since independence, the oligarchic super-rich have played a baneful and disruptive part in Ukraine’s politics. </p><p>When President <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/b9f1896c-1b4d-11ea-9186-7348c2f183af">Zelensky declared</a> after his first encounter with Putin in the talks in Paris in December 2019, “Ukraine is an independent, democratic state, whose development vector will always be chosen exclusively by the people of Ukraine”, we should bear these basic economic facts in mind. Clearly, Zelensky wished to insist on Ukraine’s sovereignty vis a vis an overmighty Russia. But if sovereignty consists in determining a development vector - which does seem like a good definition - what can one say about Ukraine’s sovereignty? At best it could be described as a desperate and so far vain search for a development model that could command the support of a majority in Ukraine. </p><p>That desperate search was made more urgent by the rising geopolitical tension announced by Putin’s speech in 2007 and by the financial shock of 2008. But it was also made more dangerous. </p><p>The basic options as discussed before 2014 were alignment with Russia, alignment with the EU-NATO or balancing between the two. Balancing between the two was the mode preferred in the 1990s and early 2000s. But by the mid 2000s in the wake of the color revolutions in Georgia and Ukraine in 2004, with both Poland’s prosperity and Russia’s ambition increasingly evident, the choices began to seem more stark. </p><p>Then in 2008, the Bush administration sought to decide the issue. It encouraged both Georgia and Ukraine to aspire to NATO membership and wrangled the other NATO members, at the NATO Bucharest conference in April 2008 into promising them membership. This confirming Russia’s worst fears. Ever since Ukraine’s politics has been torn by the scale of this choice. The worst consequences were graphically illustrated in Georgia. </p><p>Following the Bucharest NATO summit, Georgia’s ambitious leadership under President Mikheil Saakashvili concluded that to expedite NATO membership it would need to resolve outstanding issues with the breakaway region of South Ossetia. It also imagined that it had received a green-light from Washington. In August 2008, just weeks ahead of the Lehman crisis, Moscow’s massive military reaction to Georgia’s offensive in South Ossetia sent a clear and decisive message. Do not attempt to move forward on NATO’s ill-judged Bucharest commitments. </p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{"url":"https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe now","action":null,"class":null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p>If that was not enough, economic and financial crisis in US and Europe halted any further moves in that direction. In 2008 Ukraine was immediately thrown into appealing to the IMF. Given its reliance on heavy-industrial exports, Ukraine was one of the economies worst hit by the 2008 shock. </p><p>By 2013, Kiev was desperately trying to play off IMF, EU and Russia looking for a deal. The result in 2013 was a winner takes all bidding war between the EU and Russia for influence over Ukraine’s economy. Yankukovych’s corrupt regime first encouraged its population to believe that it was swinging towards the EU. Then, faced with the niggardly European financial terms, and with a far more lucrative offer from Moscow in hand, it swung abruptly back towards Russia. That triggered the Maidan revolution. With the West hastening to recognize the revolution, Yanukovych was unwilling to stand and fight. Faced with a fait accompli Russia decided to save what could be saved. In 2014 it annexed Crimea and intervened to create Russian-backed separatist Republics in the Eastern Donbass region. </p><p>This is where the current media story typically begins: “Russian aggression against sovereign Ukraine in 2014”. </p><p>Desperate to hold the Kiev regime together, the West instrumentalized the IMF under Christine Lagarde to provide financial assistance to Kiev. This was the first time that the Fund has made a program for a country in Ukraine’s unstable condition, with an ongoing conflict on its territory. But neither the EU nor the US had any intention of backing Ukraine sufficiently to win the war in the East. Instead, the Obama administration backed away and handed off the Ukraine crisis to France and Germany. In the so-called Normandy format negotiations - amidst the eruption of the Eurozone clash with the new Syriza government in Athens and the swelling refugee crisis (the original polycrisis) - Berlin and Paris =shepherded Ukraine into the Minsk II agreement in 2015. After years of alienation (remember Snowden 2013) it was a moment of restored US-German harmony. </p><p>The Minsk agreement of 2015 is key to the current crisis. The original deal was a reflection of Russia’s massive military superiority over Ukraine but also Russia’s unwillingness to escalate to the point of full-scale invasion. The deal satisfied Russia because it promised a decentralized Ukraine with language rights guaranteed for Russian speakers. That in Moscow’s view was enough to ensure that Ukraine would not slide into the Western sphere of influence. If no progress was made on implementing the deal, Ukraine would be left in a state of frozen conflict. The ongoing conflict might not stop IMF support, but it would rule Ukraine out as a candidate for closer integration with either the EU or NATO. But it is also a painful provisorium. It is deeply unsatisfying to the increasingly nationalist tone of politics in Kiev. Moscow found itself backing the Donbass region and having to adjust to life under a sustained sanctions regime imposed by the US and the EU. </p><p>Resolving the Minsk agreement impasse is what the argument has been about since 2019 when Zelensky was elected on a peace-ticket and President Macron of France took steps to revive the process in the hope of bringing Russia out of the deep freeze.</p><p>With Trump in the White House and increasing concern about China, France did not want to persist with the status quo. An independent Franco-European diplomacy towards Russia has been a fantasy since the days of De Gaulle. Germany has continued its economic relations with Russia regardless of the Ukraine crisis, notably in the energy sector. The agreement between Gazprom, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Royal_Dutch_Shell" title="Royal Dutch Shell">Royal Dutch Shell</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E.ON" title="E.ON">E.ON</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OMV" title="OMV">OMV</a>, and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Engie" title="">Engie</a> to build Nordstream 2 was signed in the summer of 2015 and though it was put on ice, German permits were issued in January 2018 and construction on the German end began in May of that year. </p><p>But moving beyond the Donbass impasse requires <a href="https://cepa.org/dont-let-russia-fool-you-about-the-minsk-agreements/">concessions from both sides</a>. Russia would need to concede at least independent monitoring of elections and institution-building in the Donbass segment it controls. And Ukraine and Russia would need to agree on the ultimate goal. To satisfy Russian concerns, Minsk envisioned a high degree of autonomy for the Eastern regions. The most Kiev is willing to agree to is the incorporation of Donbass into general structure of federation which does not go anywhere near far enough for Russia. Furthermore, after years of struggle Ukrainian nationalists regard any steps towards the actual implementation of the Minks agreement in a form that would be acceptable to Moscow, as an act of treason. </p><p>So if this is the backdrop to the impasse in Ukraine, and if 2019 seemed to open a new era of engagement, what I have been trying to figure out is what explains the current escalation to the point in which since the spring of 2021 we have had two major war scares in the period of 12 months. Furthermore, these are war scares of a different order of magnitude. .</p><p>Russian military analysts will tell you the Russia has been building capability for a while so it may simply have been a matter of time before they decided to wield this instrument of coercion.But that still begs the question of timing. </p><p>It is sometimes suggested that Putin needs a war scare for domestic political purposes. The annexation of Crimea in 2014 earned him a huge popularity bump. That has dissipated. There is little evidence from Lavarda polling data to suggest that the Russian population would welcome a new war and particularly not one with Ukraine. </p><p>It is true that since 2014 the gloss has come off Russia’s economy. Putin’s regime can no longer offer a good news story of an improving welfare bargain. In 2018 it raised the pension age, further undermining morale. As analysts at the <a href="https://carnegiemoscow.org/commentary/86013">Carnegie center </a>have remarked, the Putin-era social contract - “you provide for us and leave our Soviet-style social handouts alone, and we’ll vote for you and take no interest in your stealing and bribe-taking” - has worn thin. In the autumn elections to the Russian parliament the legacy <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-communist-party-duma/31473164.html">Communist party gained strength.</a> But, again, that hardly provides a good reason for a sudden escalation to the current level of military tension. </p><p>The more compelling logic is driven by the tensions within the Minsk compromise, Russia’s geopolitical concerns about America’s stance, and Putin’s own political clock. </p><p>Inside the Kremlin, Putin’s own timeline is crucial. In 2024 he faces a choice as to whether to continue in power or to begin to prepare his final exit. Russia could step away from the Ukraine issue. But Putin is too dug in. He wants to resolve Ukraine. This does not mean annex it. It means achieving what the struggle between 2007 and 2015 was about i.e. drawing a line on western expansion. That needs to be achieved both by consolidating a Russian veto in Ukrainian politics and driving home the message to the West not to attempt a further expansion. If 2024 is the date that is on Putin’s mind, then this overlaps with the term of the Biden Presidency. So, setting the terms of Russo-US relations on the issue as early as possible must be a priority for the Kremlin. The Biden administration has clearly signaled that its priority is China and that it is willing to pay a political price for retrenching its strategic position (Afghanistan), perhaps that opens the door in Ukraine. </p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{"url":"https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe now","action":null,"class":null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p>Then there are internal dynamics within Ukraine. The Western media tend to treat Russia’s commentary on Ukraine as purely instrumental talk. But what if we take seriously what the Russians say? In that case what they are concerned about is something like the Georgian scenario. An over-ambitious or desperate nationalist regime in Kiev, encouraged by loose Western talk about NATO membership, attempts, through force, to reincorporate Donbass. That would require Moscow to react with massive force. Better to resolve the issue on Moscow’s own terms by making clear the vast imbalance in military power and forcing the US to engage with the diplomatic process, out-maneuvering Berlin and Paris, which Moscow regards as helpless and pro-Ukrainian. </p><p>In 2018, Putin publicly declared that a Ukrainian attempt to regain territory in the <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/2021-10-18/russia-no-mideast-superpower">Donbas region</a> by force would unleash a military response. </p><p>The election in 2019 election of Volodymyr Zelensky was seen as potential opening. He ran as a peace candidate. He returned to the Normandy format negotiations and Russia put a lid on any violent clashes in Donbass. But Zelensky’s popularity has collapsed. Like all his predecessors he faces a choice between Russophone opposition based in the east of the country, and the nationalists rooted in Ukraine’s west. Like all his predecessors he is trying to deliver for the electorate whilst negotiating with the IMF. Ukraine’s economic situation continues to be miserable. </p><p>The divisions within Ukrainian politics continue to be extreme, with the nationalist exerting a whip-hand. In March 2020 Zelenskiy’s chief of staff, Andryi Yermak, met with the Putin’s point man Dmitry Kozak, and agreed on a special Advisory Council in which Ukrainian officials would discuss the peace process with representatives of the Russian-backed separatist governments. On his return to Kiev, Yermak was slapped with criminal charges by the Ukrainian security services and faced accusations of <a href="https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/sbu-investigates-yermak-kuchma-for-high-treason-on-lawmakers-appeal.html">treason</a> in parliament. This confirmed Moscow’s view that nationalist zealots in Ukraine call the shots. </p><p>Meanwhile, the NATO-Ukraine issue continues to bubble. </p><p>In early December 2019 the Ukrainian parliament adopted a resolution "regarding priority steps to ensure Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic integration and acquire Ukraine's full membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization."</p><p>Nor was this simply an appeal from the Ukrainian side. According to Carnegie Moscow center’s <a href="https://carnegiemoscow.org/commentary/86067">Vladimir Frolov</a>, the moment when Moscow’s strategic patience regarding the Zelensky government finally snapped was in June 2020, when NATO decided to grant Ukraine the status of Enhanced Opportunities Partner.</p><p>This was welcomed by a representative of Zelensky’s party <a href="https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/nato-upgrades-ukraine/">as follows</a>: </p><blockquote><p><strong>Lisa Yasko, </strong><em><strong>Ukrainian MP</strong></em><strong>, Servant of the People Party: </strong>NATO’s decision to grant Ukraine Enhanced Opportunities Partner status is great news. The Ukrainian government has been working on this issue since autumn 2019. Earlier obstacles resulting from misunderstandings with Budapest regarding Ukrainian language policy and education reforms have been resolved thanks to fruitful bilateral dialogue with Hungary. Enhanced cooperation between Ukraine and the NATO alliance is of the utmost strategic importance for regional and global security. EOP status gives us new opportunities in Ukraine, in Brussels, and across the globe. In particular, this opens up new possibilities for the further exchange of information and intelligence, mutual training, and the participation of the Ukrainian military in NATO missions. At the same time, it is important to underline that our claim for a NATO membership action plan remains valid. With this in mind, Ukraine continues to implement reforms in the security and defense sectors. In 2020 this includes the reform of military ranks in line with NATO standards. President Zelenskyy has also presented a bill on Security Service reform. This reflects our ongoing commitment to greater Euro-Atlantic integration. Over the summer of 2020, there was talk in Kyiv of attaining the status of Major Non-NATO Ally, which would remove virtually all restrictions on military cooperation with the Americans.” That is probably the main Russian worry at this point. </p></blockquote><p>As far as the Carnegie team working under Dmitri Trenin can judge, this was a crucial turning point. </p><p>Moscow, however, did not immediately move to a war footing. In the second half of 2020 it had to deal with two other major crises in its immediate neighborhood. In August the rigged presidential elections in Belarus triggered an unprecedented storm of protest. In September 2020 war broke out between Armenia and Azerbaijan, with Azerbaijan, backed by Turkey, scoring a major victory. A fragile peace was achieved in November 2020 with Moscow acting as the broker. </p><p>Both of these crises could have provided a reckless regime in Moscow with opportunities for dramatic intervention. In neither case did Moscow push hard. In the Caucasus conflict it has adopted a balancing position. In Belarus Moscow’s aim seems to be largely defensive, to avoid what for Putin would be a Maidan-style distater. But it has not foisted on Lukashenko a complex or expensive new integration with Russia. The Russo-Belarusian integration agreement of November 2021 is an <a href="https://carnegiemoscow.org/commentary/85749">empty letter</a>. With Lukashenko beginning to plan his exit, </p><blockquote><p>the main objective for the Kremlin is to maintain a controlled, pro-Russian transition of power. It wants to prevent Lukashenko and the Belarusian elite from casting around in search of new allies and hatching harebrained schemes. Such behavior might escalate the domestic situation and prompt the EU and the United States to look for new approaches, which might again steer Belarus toward the West. </p></blockquote><p>As for Ukraine, the decisive escalation in the spring of 2021 was triggered by actions taken on the Kiev side over winter of 2020-2021. </p><p>In December Ukrainian Defense Minister <a href="https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-defense/3146549-ukraine-hopes-to-get-map-at-nato-summit-next-year-taran.html">Andrii Taran announced</a> that <strong>Ukraine hopes to receive a NATO Membership Action Plan (MAP) at the upcoming NATO summit.</strong></p><blockquote><p>He stated this at a briefing entitled "Defense aspects of Ukraine's Euro-Atlantic integration: key aspects and tasks for the future," according to the Ukrainian Defense Ministry's website.</p><p>"Please inform your capitals that we count on your full political and military support for such a decision [granting Ukraine the MAP] at the next NATO summit in 2021. This will be a practical step and a demonstration of commitment to the decisions of the 2008 Bucharest Summit," Taran said, addressing the ambassadors and military attaches of NATO member states, as well as representatives of the NATO office in Ukraine.</p><p>According to him, today Ukraine's course for full membership in NATO is enshrined in the Constitution of Ukraine, and the rapid receipt of the NATO Membership Action Plan is a goal set in the recently adopted National Security Strategy of Ukraine. Taran noted that over the past seven years, Ukraine has firmly defended not only its own independence, but also the security and stability of Europe, and acts as a powerful outpost on NATO's eastern flank.</p><p>"We believe that Ukraine and Georgia's joining the Alliance would be the right decision for NATO. Our countries have a lot in common. These are post-Soviet republics, the countries that have been affected by Russian aggression. From our point of view, Ukraine's and Georgia's potential membership in NATO will have a significant impact on Euro-Atlantic security and stability, in particular in the Black Sea region," Taran said.</p></blockquote><p>2021 February, in an unexpected move the Ukrainian authorities announced severe sanctions against pro-Russian politicians and media. On February 2, Zelensky shut down three pro-Russian TV channels, accusing their owner of financing Donbas separatists. This was followed on February 19 by sanctions against Ukrainian and Russian individuals and companies on the same charges. Most dramatically, Kiev struck against Viktor Medvedchuk, who in recent years has been Putin’s only interlocutor in Ukrainian politics and is a crucial go between. Given the strong support for his pro-Russian party Medvedchuk was also a serious challenger to Zelensky in political terms. </p><p>Clearly this merited a reaction from Moscow. In direct response, Moscow unleashed the separatist forces in Donbass resulting in a surge in ceasefire violations. But intensifying the fighting in Donbass was one thing, why the full-scale military mobilization? </p><p>Here the military logistical issues may play a role. Russia has the means. But it also had the motive not simply to intimidate Kiev but to test the relationship between Kiev and Washington. It was in early 2021 that Moscow source began to refer more often to Mikheil Saakashvili syndrome. Would Zelensky attempt something similar in Donbass in 2021, in the expectation of American support?</p><p>The Kremlin does not treat Ukrainian politics very seriously. They are strongly convinced that the real force in deciding Kiev’s actions is Washington. Russia had nothing good to expect from an in-coming Democratic administration and Biden had made clear his determination to take a firm line in the campaign. The attack on Alexei Navalny and his jailing added further tension. By raising the military pressure on Kiev, Moscow would test Biden’s mettle and make clear that if the Ukraine situation was to be resolved, then Washington could not rely on Europe to deliver a resolution by means of the Minsk process. </p><p>During the crisis, Kozak, who is also the Kremlin’s deputy chief of staff, essentially repeated President Vladimir Putin’s earlier stern warning that a Ukrainian offensive in Donbas would spell the end of Ukrainian statehood. And Washington responded. </p><p>Throughout 2021 the Biden administration has walked a line between seeking a working relationship with Russia and responding to pressure to take a strong stance on what are judged to be Russian provocations. Given that the Biden administration’s clear focus is on China it is striking how much attention has been directed towards Russia. </p><p>From this initial escalation in the spring, triggered by Zelensky’s moves against pro-Russian political forces, by way of the telephone diplomacy with Biden, which led to a deescalation in April, to the June summit in Geneva, the sparring in the summer, and the reescalation of tension since August, we can retrace the steps which by November led back to an acute war scare. </p><p>On the Russian side, one significant moment in the longer-term may turn out to be the publication on 2 July 2021 of Russia’s new <a href="http://publication.pravo.gov.ru/Document/View/0001202107030001">National Security Strategy</a>. Even more explicitly than its predecessor document of 2015 it sets out a new and antagonistic view of the world. </p><p>On the Ukrainian side one might point to the <a href="https://www.voanews.com/a/europe_ukraine-opens-international-summit-crimea/6209891.html">Crimean Platform summit</a> that president Zelenskiy opened in Kiev on 22 August, “to build pressure on Russia over its annexation of the Crimea territory, …Officials from 46 countries and blocs are taking part in the two-day summit, including representatives from each of the 30 NATO members. The U.S. delegation is headed up by Secretary of Energy Jennifer M. Granholm.” </p><p>The structure of this conflict is clear as are the routes which generate escalation. The question is, can it be resolved? Personally I am sympathetic to <a href="https://www.thenation.com/authors/anatol-lieven/">Anatol Lieven</a>’s take in the <em><a href="https://www.thenation.com/article/world/ukraine-donbas-russia-conflict/">Nation</a>. Or t</em>he proposal by Thomas Graham (NSC Russia Director for George W Bush) and my colleague Rajan Menon in <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/01/10/how-to-get-what-we-want-from-putin-526859">Politico</a>. </p><p>Whichever route one proposes, it will be a disaster for US grand strategy if the upshot of the current crisis is a military escalation or an increase in hostilities with Russia that drives if further towards China. The <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/12/15/world/asia/china-russia-summit-xi-putin.html">Putin-Xi summit</a> is already scheduled for the winter Olympics in February. </p><p>****</p><p>I love putting together Chartbook and am delighted it goes out free to thousands of subscribers. But if you like what you are reading and feel you can support the effort, please pick one of the subscription offers here:</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{"url":"https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe now","action":null,"class":null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><!--
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"post_id": "46944104.top-links-49-grandeur-serbian-lithium",
"post_date": "2022-01-11T12:29:19.315Z",
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"email_sent_at": "2022-01-11T12:29:19.487Z",
"inbox_sent_at": "2022-01-11T12:29:19.487Z",
"type": "newsletter",
"audience": "only_paid",
"title": "Top Links #49 Grandeur, Serbian lithium, Mother Courage & Erdogan in West Africa ",
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<p>Welcome to Top Links the burst of fascinating and fun stuff for Chartbook subscribers. </p><div data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM" class="tweet" data-attrs="{"url":"https://twitter.com/MichaelShurkin/status/1476177243382722564","full_text":"French president's Concord over Djibouti, 1989. A dissertation could be written about this image. Title: \"Modernism, Technology, and the Pursuit of Grandeur in Post-Colonial France.\" ","username":"MichaelShurkin","name":"Michael Shurkin","date":"Wed Dec 29 13:04:15 +0000 2021","photos":[{"img_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/media/FHxu3OiXoAs-adY.png","link_url":"https://t.co/HNSBURTQEE","alt_text":null}],"quoted_tweet":{},"retweet_count":270,"like_count":1971,"expanded_url":{},"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":false}"><a class="tweet-link-top" href="https://twitter.com/MichaelShurkin/status/1476177243382722564" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-header"><img class="tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/MichaelShurkin.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @MichaelShurkin"><div class="tweet-header-text"><span class="tweet-author-name">Michael Shurkin </span><span class="tweet-author-handle">@MichaelShurkin</span></div></div><div class="tweet-text">French president's Concord over Djibouti, 1989. A dissertation could be written about this image. Title: "Modernism, Technology, and the Pursuit of Grandeur in Post-Colonial France." </div><div class="tweet-photos-container one"><div class="tweet-photo-wrapper "><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!5Vhc!,w_600,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FFHxu3OiXoAs-adY.png"><img class="tweet-photo" src="https://pbs.substack.com/media/FHxu3OiXoAs-adY.png" alt="Image"></picture></div></div></a><a class="tweet-link-bottom" href="https://twitter.com/MichaelShurkin/status/1476177243382722564" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-footer"><span class="tweet-date">1:04 PM ∙ Dec 29, 2021</span><hr><div class="tweet-ufi"><span href="https://twitter.com/MichaelShurkin/status/1476177243382722564/likes" class="likes"><span class="like-count">1,971</span>Likes</span><span href="https://twitter.com/MichaelShurkin/status/1476177243382722564/retweets" class="retweets"><span class="rt-count">270</span>Retweets</span></div></div></a></div><p>Grandeur! </p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{"url":"https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/top-links-49-grandeur-serbian-lithium?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share","text":"Share","action":null,"class":null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/top-links-49-grandeur-serbian-lithium?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share"><span>Share</span></a></p><p><strong>Inflation worries</strong></p><p>We are all worrying about it. A few days back I found this dense <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/20e0857b-99cb-4495-8677-8746d97db836#myft:my-news:page">piece by Mohamed El-Erian</a> particularly haunting. </p><p>“As the new year unfolds, both the Fed and markets have a huge stake in inflation coming down in an orderly way. But the window of opportunity for policy to achieve this is rapidly closing. The alternative is a disorderly drop, which would involve the even bigger Fed policy error of having to be too abrupt in tightening monetary policy after being way too slow previously.”</p><p>I’m team transitory all the way, but with teeth clenched at this point. A lot riding on the CPI numbers tomorrow!</p><p><strong>Digital lag</strong></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rl3D!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdbdf9eed-91f4-49db-aefb-4ede2e075645_1734x896.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rl3D!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdbdf9eed-91f4-49db-aefb-4ede2e075645_1734x896.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rl3D!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdbdf9eed-91f4-49db-aefb-4ede2e075645_1734x896.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rl3D!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdbdf9eed-91f4-49db-aefb-4ede2e075645_1734x896.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rl3D!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdbdf9eed-91f4-49db-aefb-4ede2e075645_1734x896.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/dbdf9eed-91f4-49db-aefb-4ede2e075645_1734x896.png" width="1100" height="568" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/dbdf9eed-91f4-49db-aefb-4ede2e075645_1734x896.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":568,"width":1100,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":168933,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rl3D!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdbdf9eed-91f4-49db-aefb-4ede2e075645_1734x896.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rl3D!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdbdf9eed-91f4-49db-aefb-4ede2e075645_1734x896.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rl3D!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdbdf9eed-91f4-49db-aefb-4ede2e075645_1734x896.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rl3D!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdbdf9eed-91f4-49db-aefb-4ede2e075645_1734x896.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Japan has twice as many broadband subscriptions per 100 inhabitants as Germany, whose subscription rate is barely greater than that of Mexico.</p><p><strong>Mining Lithium in Serbia </strong></p><p>I found this <em><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/707e7a39-f357-484a-8efc-b0b7dc475600">FT</a></em><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/707e7a39-f357-484a-8efc-b0b7dc475600"> piece </a>on the contested <a href="https://www.riotinto.com/en/operations/projects/jadar">Rio Tinto lithium</a> development in Jadar, Serbia intriguing, but also question begging. </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!KKCY!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb186f922-ca5e-4e2a-8d05-e596ddcfcd96_2094x1272.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!KKCY!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb186f922-ca5e-4e2a-8d05-e596ddcfcd96_2094x1272.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!KKCY!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb186f922-ca5e-4e2a-8d05-e596ddcfcd96_2094x1272.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!KKCY!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb186f922-ca5e-4e2a-8d05-e596ddcfcd96_2094x1272.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!KKCY!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb186f922-ca5e-4e2a-8d05-e596ddcfcd96_2094x1272.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b186f922-ca5e-4e2a-8d05-e596ddcfcd96_2094x1272.png" width="1100" height="668" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b186f922-ca5e-4e2a-8d05-e596ddcfcd96_2094x1272.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":668,"width":1100,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":4621500,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!KKCY!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb186f922-ca5e-4e2a-8d05-e596ddcfcd96_2094x1272.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!KKCY!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb186f922-ca5e-4e2a-8d05-e596ddcfcd96_2094x1272.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!KKCY!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb186f922-ca5e-4e2a-8d05-e596ddcfcd96_2094x1272.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!KKCY!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb186f922-ca5e-4e2a-8d05-e596ddcfcd96_2094x1272.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Asking the hive mind of twitter for more information, elicited this very sensible intervention by <a href="https://www.danas.rs/kolumna/aleksandar-milosevic/karneval-u-rio-tintu/">Aleksandar Milosevic on danas.rs</a> Stick it through google translate.</p><blockquote><p>the dilemma to be decided is 1,000 well-paid jobs and about 30 million euros of annual state revenue (plus 2,000 jobs on construction and partly engaging domestic suppliers in a project worth over two billion euros), and against the relocation of 50 families, the destruction of some 400 hectares of land and the creation of tailings to the detriment of local flora and fauna. A potential battery factory with its jobs and taxes or a different calculation of state revenues changes the ratio of gains and losses. So, we decide on that. And not about whether we are for Vučić or not.</p></blockquote><p><strong>Cargill currency</strong></p><div data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM" class="tweet" data-attrs="{"url":"https://twitter.com/LindyScience/status/1473871995431444484","full_text":"America's largest private company, Cargill, printed their own Zimbabwean bank notes in the early 2000s ","username":"LindyScience","name":"LindyScience","date":"Thu Dec 23 04:24:01 +0000 2021","photos":[{"img_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/media/FHQ-vIiXoAk0JpI.jpg","link_url":"https://t.co/G3iSw2ZzRC","alt_text":null},{"img_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/media/FHQ-vl7WUAcofuN.png","link_url":"https://t.co/G3iSw2ZzRC","alt_text":null},{"img_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/media/FHQ-wCGXsAMHecV.jpg","link_url":"https://t.co/G3iSw2ZzRC","alt_text":null}],"quoted_tweet":{},"retweet_count":43,"like_count":267,"expanded_url":{},"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":true}"><a class="tweet-link-top" href="https://twitter.com/LindyScience/status/1473871995431444484" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-header"><img class="tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/LindyScience.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @LindyScience" loading="lazy"><div class="tweet-header-text"><span class="tweet-author-name">LindyScience </span><span class="tweet-author-handle">@LindyScience</span></div></div><div class="tweet-text">America's largest private company, Cargill, printed their own Zimbabwean bank notes in the early 2000s </div><div class="tweet-photos-container three"><div class="tweet-photos-column"><div class="tweet-photo-wrapper "><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ZeoN!,w_600,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FFHQ-vIiXoAk0JpI.jpg"><img class="tweet-photo" src="https://pbs.substack.com/media/FHQ-vIiXoAk0JpI.jpg" alt="Image" loading="lazy"></picture></div></div><div class="tweet-photos-column"><div class="tweet-photo-wrapper half-height-container"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!yncG!,w_600,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FFHQ-vl7WUAcofuN.png"><img class="tweet-photo" src="https://pbs.substack.com/media/FHQ-vl7WUAcofuN.png" alt="Image" loading="lazy"></picture></div><div class="tweet-photo-wrapper half-height-container"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!YaXD!,w_600,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FFHQ-wCGXsAMHecV.jpg"><img class="tweet-photo" src="https://pbs.substack.com/media/FHQ-wCGXsAMHecV.jpg" alt="Image" loading="lazy"></picture></div></div></div></a><a class="tweet-link-bottom" href="https://twitter.com/LindyScience/status/1473871995431444484" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-footer"><span class="tweet-date">4:24 AM ∙ Dec 23, 2021</span><hr><div class="tweet-ufi"><span href="https://twitter.com/LindyScience/status/1473871995431444484/likes" class="likes"><span class="like-count">267</span>Likes</span><span href="https://twitter.com/LindyScience/status/1473871995431444484/retweets" class="retweets"><span class="rt-count">43</span>Retweets</span></div></div></a></div><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{"url":"https://adamtooze.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share","text":"Share Chartbook","action":null,"class":null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share"><span>Share Chartbook</span></a></p><p><strong>Erdogan’s ambition</strong></p><p>Not inflation, devaluation and crisis for once, but Erdogan’s infrastructural ambition in North West Africa. V interesting this <a href="https://www.swp-berlin.org/publications/products/arbeitspapiere/CATS_Working_Paper_Nr_3_Michael_Tanchum_Turkeys_Maghreb_West_Africa_Economic_Architecture.pdf">SWP paper </a>by @michaeltanchum</p><p>Managed by Turkish port operator Yilport, Italy’s Taranto port began servicing the Turkey-Italy-Tunisia network in early July 2020. V interesting this by </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HWRk!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa37a649d-3ddd-4a91-baf3-9b7e95c16003_714x848.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HWRk!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa37a649d-3ddd-4a91-baf3-9b7e95c16003_714x848.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HWRk!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa37a649d-3ddd-4a91-baf3-9b7e95c16003_714x848.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HWRk!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa37a649d-3ddd-4a91-baf3-9b7e95c16003_714x848.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HWRk!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa37a649d-3ddd-4a91-baf3-9b7e95c16003_714x848.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a37a649d-3ddd-4a91-baf3-9b7e95c16003_714x848.png" width="714" height="848" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a37a649d-3ddd-4a91-baf3-9b7e95c16003_714x848.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":848,"width":714,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":630030,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HWRk!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa37a649d-3ddd-4a91-baf3-9b7e95c16003_714x848.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HWRk!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa37a649d-3ddd-4a91-baf3-9b7e95c16003_714x848.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HWRk!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa37a649d-3ddd-4a91-baf3-9b7e95c16003_714x848.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HWRk!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa37a649d-3ddd-4a91-baf3-9b7e95c16003_714x848.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p><strong>Banning “Franglais”</strong></p><div data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM" class="tweet" data-attrs="{"url":"https://twitter.com/holland_tom/status/1477759052008636428","full_text":"In May 1922, an article was published in a French magazine attacking the use of ‘Franglais’. It so impressed the Prime Minister Raymond Poincaré that he banned the use of all English words in official documents.\n\nThe article had been written by Nguyen Ai Quoc - aka Ho Chi Minh.","username":"holland_tom","name":"Tom Holland","date":"Sun Jan 02 21:49:48 +0000 2022","photos":[],"quoted_tweet":{},"retweet_count":205,"like_count":1209,"expanded_url":{},"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":true}"><a class="tweet-link-top" href="https://twitter.com/holland_tom/status/1477759052008636428" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-header"><img class="tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/holland_tom.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @holland_tom" loading="lazy"><div class="tweet-header-text"><span class="tweet-author-name">Tom Holland </span><span class="tweet-author-handle">@holland_tom</span></div></div><div class="tweet-text">In May 1922, an article was published in a French magazine attacking the use of ‘Franglais’. It so impressed the Prime Minister Raymond Poincaré that he banned the use of all English words in official documents.
The article had been written by Nguyen Ai Quoc - aka Ho Chi Minh.</div></a><a class="tweet-link-bottom" href="https://twitter.com/holland_tom/status/1477759052008636428" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-footer"><span class="tweet-date">9:49 PM ∙ Jan 2, 2022</span><hr><div class="tweet-ufi"><span href="https://twitter.com/holland_tom/status/1477759052008636428/likes" class="likes"><span class="like-count">1,209</span>Likes</span><span href="https://twitter.com/holland_tom/status/1477759052008636428/retweets" class="retweets"><span class="rt-count">205</span>Retweets</span></div></div></a></div><p>Too good to be true? Apparently the source, for those who want to check, is Kevin Jackson, <em>Constellation of genius</em>, 187</p><p><strong>Mother Courage</strong></p><p>The first performance of Brecht’s Mother Couragee in Berlin took place on 11 January 1949. Imagine seeing it amidst the ruined city and mass flight of Germans from the East. </p><div data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM" class="tweet" data-attrs="{"url":"https://twitter.com/Letnapark/status/1480853200651571202","full_text":"11.1.1949 <span class=\"tweet-fake-link\">#Berlin</span>\n<span class=\"tweet-fake-link\">#Brecht</span>, *Mutter Courage und ihre Kinder*, Erstaufführung in Berlin und grandioser Erfolg des Stückes, v.a. wegen Helene <span class=\"tweet-fake-link\">#Weigel</span> als Courage.\nPresse und Publikum jubeln. Nur die <span class=\"tweet-fake-link\">#SozRealismus</span>-Theoretiker nörgeln schon mal prophylaktisch... ","username":"Letnapark","name":"Letnapark","date":"Tue Jan 11 10:44:50 +0000 2022","photos":[{"img_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/media/FI0MI1VXoAolxeO.jpg","link_url":"https://t.co/f88ha9uNmg","alt_text":null}],"quoted_tweet":{},"retweet_count":3,"like_count":7,"expanded_url":{},"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":true}"><a class="tweet-link-top" href="https://twitter.com/Letnapark/status/1480853200651571202" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-header"><img class="tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/Letnapark.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @Letnapark" loading="lazy"><div class="tweet-header-text"><span class="tweet-author-name">Letnapark </span><span class="tweet-author-handle">@Letnapark</span></div></div><div class="tweet-text">11.1.1949 <span class="tweet-fake-link">#Berlin</span>
<span class="tweet-fake-link">#Brecht</span>, *Mutter Courage und ihre Kinder*, Erstaufführung in Berlin und grandioser Erfolg des Stückes, v.a. wegen Helene <span class="tweet-fake-link">#Weigel</span> als Courage.
Presse und Publikum jubeln. Nur die <span class="tweet-fake-link">#SozRealismus</span>-Theoretiker nörgeln schon mal prophylaktisch... </div><div class="tweet-photos-container one"><div class="tweet-photo-wrapper "><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zCX5!,w_600,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FFI0MI1VXoAolxeO.jpg"><img class="tweet-photo" src="https://pbs.substack.com/media/FI0MI1VXoAolxeO.jpg" alt="Image" loading="lazy"></picture></div></div></a><a class="tweet-link-bottom" href="https://twitter.com/Letnapark/status/1480853200651571202" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-footer"><span class="tweet-date">10:44 AM ∙ Jan 11, 2022</span><hr><div class="tweet-ufi"><span href="https://twitter.com/Letnapark/status/1480853200651571202/likes" class="likes"><span class="like-count">7</span>Likes</span><span href="https://twitter.com/Letnapark/status/1480853200651571202/retweets" class="retweets"><span class="rt-count">3</span>Retweets</span></div></div></a></div><p><strong>Stunning bookstore</strong> </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9hDH!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7158cae5-70ca-47df-a677-44e6d39e38e5_850x1198.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9hDH!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7158cae5-70ca-47df-a677-44e6d39e38e5_850x1198.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9hDH!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7158cae5-70ca-47df-a677-44e6d39e38e5_850x1198.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9hDH!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7158cae5-70ca-47df-a677-44e6d39e38e5_850x1198.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9hDH!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7158cae5-70ca-47df-a677-44e6d39e38e5_850x1198.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/7158cae5-70ca-47df-a677-44e6d39e38e5_850x1198.png" width="578" height="814.64" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/7158cae5-70ca-47df-a677-44e6d39e38e5_850x1198.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":1198,"width":850,"resizeWidth":578,"bytes":1557114,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9hDH!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7158cae5-70ca-47df-a677-44e6d39e38e5_850x1198.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9hDH!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7158cae5-70ca-47df-a677-44e6d39e38e5_850x1198.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9hDH!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7158cae5-70ca-47df-a677-44e6d39e38e5_850x1198.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!9hDH!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F7158cae5-70ca-47df-a677-44e6d39e38e5_850x1198.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>From latest <a href="https://on.ft.com/3qrfy21">FT compilation</a>. </p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{"url":"https://adamtooze.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share","text":"Share Chartbook","action":null,"class":null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share"><span>Share Chartbook</span></a></p><p><strong>Better late than never </strong></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!W9pX!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F180c2930-3793-4911-be71-47feb0394695_682x880.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!W9pX!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F180c2930-3793-4911-be71-47feb0394695_682x880.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!W9pX!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F180c2930-3793-4911-be71-47feb0394695_682x880.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!W9pX!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F180c2930-3793-4911-be71-47feb0394695_682x880.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!W9pX!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F180c2930-3793-4911-be71-47feb0394695_682x880.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/180c2930-3793-4911-be71-47feb0394695_682x880.png" width="682" height="880" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/180c2930-3793-4911-be71-47feb0394695_682x880.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":880,"width":682,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":1195924,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!W9pX!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F180c2930-3793-4911-be71-47feb0394695_682x880.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!W9pX!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F180c2930-3793-4911-be71-47feb0394695_682x880.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!W9pX!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F180c2930-3793-4911-be71-47feb0394695_682x880.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!W9pX!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F180c2930-3793-4911-be71-47feb0394695_682x880.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p><strong>For Dana</strong> </p><div data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM" class="tweet" data-attrs="{"url":"https://twitter.com/olgatuleninova/status/1467215886390112266","full_text":"Ion Theodorescu Sion (1882-1939) Seashore ","username":"olgatuleninova","name":"Olga Tuleninova 🦋","date":"Sat Dec 04 19:35:01 +0000 2021","photos":[{"img_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/media/FFyZDz3XoAQZwrb.jpg","link_url":"https://t.co/Vnq0s8HEsw","alt_text":null}],"quoted_tweet":{},"retweet_count":0,"like_count":3,"expanded_url":{},"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":true}"><a class="tweet-link-top" href="https://twitter.com/olgatuleninova/status/1467215886390112266" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-header"><img class="tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/olgatuleninova.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @olgatuleninova" loading="lazy"><div class="tweet-header-text"><span class="tweet-author-name">Olga Tuleninova 🦋 </span><span class="tweet-author-handle">@olgatuleninova</span></div></div><div class="tweet-text">Ion Theodorescu Sion (1882-1939) Seashore </div><div class="tweet-photos-container one"><div class="tweet-photo-wrapper "><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ABIL!,w_600,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FFFyZDz3XoAQZwrb.jpg"><img class="tweet-photo" src="https://pbs.substack.com/media/FFyZDz3XoAQZwrb.jpg" alt="Image" loading="lazy"></picture></div></div></a><a class="tweet-link-bottom" href="https://twitter.com/olgatuleninova/status/1467215886390112266" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-footer"><span class="tweet-date">7:35 PM ∙ Dec 4, 2021</span></div></a></div><p>If you really love Chartbook, why not share it with a friend.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{"url":"https://adamtooze.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share","text":"Share Chartbook","action":null,"class":null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share"><span>Share Chartbook</span></a></p><p>If you really love your friend, why not gift them a subscription so that they get the full fun of Top Links, regularly to their email inbox.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{"url":"https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?&gift=true","text":"Give a gift subscription","action":null,"class":null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?&gift=true"><span>Give a gift subscription</span></a></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><!--
{
"post_id": "46945045.serbian-lithium-mother-courage-and",
"post_date": "2022-01-11T12:35:46.008Z",
"is_published": true,
"email_sent_at": "2022-01-11T12:35:46.211Z",
"inbox_sent_at": "2022-01-11T12:35:46.211Z",
"type": "newsletter",
"audience": "only_free",
"title": "Serbian lithium, Mother Courage & Erdogan in West Africa",
"subtitle": "Top links and reads from the Chartbook Newsletter by Adam Tooze "
}
-->
<p>Top Links goes out several times per week as a thank you to everyone who signs up for a paying subscription to Chartbook.</p><p>To get the full does of links, reading, images, choose one of the following options:</p><ol><li><p>The <strong>annual subscription: $50 annually</strong></p></li><li><p>The <strong>standard monthly subscription: $5 monthly -</strong> which gives you a bit more flexibility.</p></li><li><p><strong>Founders club:$ 120 annua</strong>lly, or another amount at your discretion - for those who really love Chartbook Newsletter, or read it in a professional setting in which you regularly pay for subscriptions, please consider signing up for the <strong>Founders Club</strong>.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{"url":"https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe now","action":null,"class":null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p></li></ol><p>Here is a selection of some of the Top Links for today. </p><div data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM" class="tweet" data-attrs="{"url":"https://twitter.com/MichaelShurkin/status/1476177243382722564","full_text":"French president's Concord over Djibouti, 1989. A dissertation could be written about this image. Title: \"Modernism, Technology, and the Pursuit of Grandeur in Post-Colonial France.\" ","username":"MichaelShurkin","name":"Michael Shurkin","date":"Wed Dec 29 13:04:15 +0000 2021","photos":[{"img_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/media/FHxu3OiXoAs-adY.png","link_url":"https://t.co/HNSBURTQEE","alt_text":null}],"quoted_tweet":{},"retweet_count":270,"like_count":1971,"expanded_url":{},"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":false}"><a class="tweet-link-top" href="https://twitter.com/MichaelShurkin/status/1476177243382722564" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-header"><img class="tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/MichaelShurkin.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @MichaelShurkin"><div class="tweet-header-text"><span class="tweet-author-name">Michael Shurkin </span><span class="tweet-author-handle">@MichaelShurkin</span></div></div><div class="tweet-text">French president's Concord over Djibouti, 1989. A dissertation could be written about this image. Title: "Modernism, Technology, and the Pursuit of Grandeur in Post-Colonial France." </div><div class="tweet-photos-container one"><div class="tweet-photo-wrapper "><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!5Vhc!,w_600,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FFHxu3OiXoAs-adY.png"><img class="tweet-photo" src="https://pbs.substack.com/media/FHxu3OiXoAs-adY.png" alt="Image"></picture></div></div></a><a class="tweet-link-bottom" href="https://twitter.com/MichaelShurkin/status/1476177243382722564" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-footer"><span class="tweet-date">1:04 PM ∙ Dec 29, 2021</span><hr><div class="tweet-ufi"><span href="https://twitter.com/MichaelShurkin/status/1476177243382722564/likes" class="likes"><span class="like-count">1,971</span>Likes</span><span href="https://twitter.com/MichaelShurkin/status/1476177243382722564/retweets" class="retweets"><span class="rt-count">270</span>Retweets</span></div></div></a></div><p>Grandeur! </p><p><strong>Inflation worries</strong></p><p>We are all worrying about it. A few days back I found this dense <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/20e0857b-99cb-4495-8677-8746d97db836#myft:my-news:page">piece by Mohamed El-Erian</a> particularly compelling. </p><p>“As the new year unfolds, both the Fed and markets have a huge stake in inflation coming down in an orderly way. But the window of opportunity for policy to achieve this is rapidly closing. The alternative is a disorderly drop, which would involve the even bigger Fed policy error of having to be too abrupt in tightening monetary policy after being way too slow previously.”</p><p>I’m team transitory all the way, but with teeth clenched at this point. A lot riding on the CPI numbers tomorrow!</p><p><strong>Digital lag</strong></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rl3D!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdbdf9eed-91f4-49db-aefb-4ede2e075645_1734x896.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rl3D!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdbdf9eed-91f4-49db-aefb-4ede2e075645_1734x896.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rl3D!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdbdf9eed-91f4-49db-aefb-4ede2e075645_1734x896.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rl3D!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdbdf9eed-91f4-49db-aefb-4ede2e075645_1734x896.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rl3D!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdbdf9eed-91f4-49db-aefb-4ede2e075645_1734x896.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/dbdf9eed-91f4-49db-aefb-4ede2e075645_1734x896.png" width="1100" height="568" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/dbdf9eed-91f4-49db-aefb-4ede2e075645_1734x896.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":568,"width":1100,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":168933,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rl3D!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdbdf9eed-91f4-49db-aefb-4ede2e075645_1734x896.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rl3D!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdbdf9eed-91f4-49db-aefb-4ede2e075645_1734x896.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rl3D!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdbdf9eed-91f4-49db-aefb-4ede2e075645_1734x896.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rl3D!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdbdf9eed-91f4-49db-aefb-4ede2e075645_1734x896.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Japan has twice as many broadband subscriptions per 100 inhabitants as Germany, whose subscription rate is barely greater than that of Mexico.</p><p><strong>Mining Lithium in Serbia </strong></p><p>I found this <em><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/707e7a39-f357-484a-8efc-b0b7dc475600">FT</a></em><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/707e7a39-f357-484a-8efc-b0b7dc475600"> piece </a>on the contested <a href="https://www.riotinto.com/en/operations/projects/jadar">Rio Tinto lithium</a> development in Jadar, Serbia intriguing, but also question begging. </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!KKCY!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb186f922-ca5e-4e2a-8d05-e596ddcfcd96_2094x1272.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!KKCY!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb186f922-ca5e-4e2a-8d05-e596ddcfcd96_2094x1272.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!KKCY!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb186f922-ca5e-4e2a-8d05-e596ddcfcd96_2094x1272.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!KKCY!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb186f922-ca5e-4e2a-8d05-e596ddcfcd96_2094x1272.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!KKCY!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb186f922-ca5e-4e2a-8d05-e596ddcfcd96_2094x1272.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b186f922-ca5e-4e2a-8d05-e596ddcfcd96_2094x1272.png" width="1100" height="668" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b186f922-ca5e-4e2a-8d05-e596ddcfcd96_2094x1272.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":668,"width":1100,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":4621500,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!KKCY!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb186f922-ca5e-4e2a-8d05-e596ddcfcd96_2094x1272.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!KKCY!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb186f922-ca5e-4e2a-8d05-e596ddcfcd96_2094x1272.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!KKCY!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb186f922-ca5e-4e2a-8d05-e596ddcfcd96_2094x1272.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!KKCY!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb186f922-ca5e-4e2a-8d05-e596ddcfcd96_2094x1272.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Asking the hive mind of twitter for more information, elicited this very sensible intervention by <a href="https://www.danas.rs/kolumna/aleksandar-milosevic/karneval-u-rio-tintu/">Aleksandar Milosevic on danas.rs</a> Stick it through google translate.</p><blockquote><p>the dilemma to be decided is 1,000 well-paid jobs and about 30 million euros of annual state revenue (plus 2,000 jobs on construction and partly engaging domestic suppliers in a project worth over two billion euros), and against the relocation of 50 families, the destruction of some 400 hectares of land and the creation of tailings to the detriment of local flora and fauna. A potential battery factory with its jobs and taxes or a different calculation of state revenues changes the ratio of gains and losses. So, we decide on that. And not about whether we are for Vučić or not.</p></blockquote><p><strong>Cargill currency</strong></p><p><strong>Erdogan’s ambition</strong></p><p>Not inflation, devaluation and crisis for once, but Erdogan’s infrastructural ambition in North West Africa. V interesting this <a href="https://www.swp-berlin.org/publications/products/arbeitspapiere/CATS_Working_Paper_Nr_3_Michael_Tanchum_Turkeys_Maghreb_West_Africa_Economic_Architecture.pdf">SWP paper </a>by @michaeltanchum</p><p>Managed by Turkish port operator Yilport, Italy’s Taranto port began servicing the Turkey-Italy-Tunisia network in early July 2020. V interesting this by </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HWRk!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa37a649d-3ddd-4a91-baf3-9b7e95c16003_714x848.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HWRk!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa37a649d-3ddd-4a91-baf3-9b7e95c16003_714x848.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HWRk!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa37a649d-3ddd-4a91-baf3-9b7e95c16003_714x848.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HWRk!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa37a649d-3ddd-4a91-baf3-9b7e95c16003_714x848.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HWRk!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa37a649d-3ddd-4a91-baf3-9b7e95c16003_714x848.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a37a649d-3ddd-4a91-baf3-9b7e95c16003_714x848.png" width="714" height="848" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a37a649d-3ddd-4a91-baf3-9b7e95c16003_714x848.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":848,"width":714,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":630030,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HWRk!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa37a649d-3ddd-4a91-baf3-9b7e95c16003_714x848.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HWRk!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa37a649d-3ddd-4a91-baf3-9b7e95c16003_714x848.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HWRk!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa37a649d-3ddd-4a91-baf3-9b7e95c16003_714x848.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HWRk!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa37a649d-3ddd-4a91-baf3-9b7e95c16003_714x848.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p><strong>Banning “Franglais”</strong></p><p><strong>Mother Courage</strong></p><p>The first performance of Brecht’s Mother Couragee in Berlin took place on 11 January 1949. Imagine seeing it amidst the ruined city and mass flight of Germans from the East. </p><div data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM" class="tweet" data-attrs="{"url":"https://twitter.com/Letnapark/status/1480853200651571202","full_text":"11.1.1949 <span class=\"tweet-fake-link\">#Berlin</span>\n<span class=\"tweet-fake-link\">#Brecht</span>, *Mutter Courage und ihre Kinder*, Erstaufführung in Berlin und grandioser Erfolg des Stückes, v.a. wegen Helene <span class=\"tweet-fake-link\">#Weigel</span> als Courage.\nPresse und Publikum jubeln. Nur die <span class=\"tweet-fake-link\">#SozRealismus</span>-Theoretiker nörgeln schon mal prophylaktisch... ","username":"Letnapark","name":"Letnapark","date":"Tue Jan 11 10:44:50 +0000 2022","photos":[{"img_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/media/FI0MI1VXoAolxeO.jpg","link_url":"https://t.co/f88ha9uNmg","alt_text":null}],"quoted_tweet":{},"retweet_count":3,"like_count":7,"expanded_url":{},"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":true}"><a class="tweet-link-top" href="https://twitter.com/Letnapark/status/1480853200651571202" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-header"><img class="tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/Letnapark.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @Letnapark" loading="lazy"><div class="tweet-header-text"><span class="tweet-author-name">Letnapark </span><span class="tweet-author-handle">@Letnapark</span></div></div><div class="tweet-text">11.1.1949 <span class="tweet-fake-link">#Berlin</span>
<span class="tweet-fake-link">#Brecht</span>, *Mutter Courage und ihre Kinder*, Erstaufführung in Berlin und grandioser Erfolg des Stückes, v.a. wegen Helene <span class="tweet-fake-link">#Weigel</span> als Courage.
Presse und Publikum jubeln. Nur die <span class="tweet-fake-link">#SozRealismus</span>-Theoretiker nörgeln schon mal prophylaktisch... </div><div class="tweet-photos-container one"><div class="tweet-photo-wrapper "><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zCX5!,w_600,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FFI0MI1VXoAolxeO.jpg"><img class="tweet-photo" src="https://pbs.substack.com/media/FI0MI1VXoAolxeO.jpg" alt="Image" loading="lazy"></picture></div></div></a><a class="tweet-link-bottom" href="https://twitter.com/Letnapark/status/1480853200651571202" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-footer"><span class="tweet-date">10:44 AM ∙ Jan 11, 2022</span><hr><div class="tweet-ufi"><span href="https://twitter.com/Letnapark/status/1480853200651571202/likes" class="likes"><span class="like-count">7</span>Likes</span><span href="https://twitter.com/Letnapark/status/1480853200651571202/retweets" class="retweets"><span class="rt-count">3</span>Retweets</span></div></div></a></div><p><strong>Stunning bookstore</strong> </p><p><strong>Better late than never </strong></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!W9pX!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F180c2930-3793-4911-be71-47feb0394695_682x880.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!W9pX!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F180c2930-3793-4911-be71-47feb0394695_682x880.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!W9pX!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F180c2930-3793-4911-be71-47feb0394695_682x880.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!W9pX!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F180c2930-3793-4911-be71-47feb0394695_682x880.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!W9pX!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F180c2930-3793-4911-be71-47feb0394695_682x880.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/180c2930-3793-4911-be71-47feb0394695_682x880.png" width="682" height="880" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/180c2930-3793-4911-be71-47feb0394695_682x880.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":880,"width":682,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":1195924,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!W9pX!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F180c2930-3793-4911-be71-47feb0394695_682x880.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!W9pX!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F180c2930-3793-4911-be71-47feb0394695_682x880.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!W9pX!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F180c2930-3793-4911-be71-47feb0394695_682x880.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!W9pX!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F180c2930-3793-4911-be71-47feb0394695_682x880.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 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<p>As in 2019, Germany topped the list of major investors in the Russian economy in 2020. Half of the German funds were invested in agri-food, reflecting the sector’s growing attractiveness and profitability. Germany has always been among the leading countries investing in Russia.</p><p>German businesses undertook 418 projects over the last two decades, more than other European countries covered by our survey.<br></p><p>China and the US shared the second spot in 2020, with 15 projects each – 32% and 25% fewer than a year earlier. Like in the case of German investors, over half of the US businesses invested in the agri-food sector. US companies working here highlight the continued importance of Russia for their business: Russia is a leading emerging market, and having a presence here is a strategic decision for many international players.1</p><p>China remained focused on high-tech, with electronics taking over the lead from software and IT services as the most attractive sector for Chinese investments in 2020.</p><p>Italy moved up from seventh to third place, having doubled the number of projects in Russia from 6 to 13, and is now winning back its title as a leading investor in the Russian economy after slashing its project portfolio in 2019. Machinery and equipment attracted over half of Italian investments.</p><p>India and Sweden joined the top ten investors in Russia for the first time in the past decade.</p><h4>Activities: manufacturing is still appealing</h4><p>Manufacturing remained the most attractive activity for foreign investors in Russia. The number of manufacturing projects was unchanged from 2019 at 107, undertaken predominantly by investors from Germany, China, Italy and the US.</p><p>The number of sales and marketing projects decreased as, in the face of the pandemic, many companies were less active on the media and promotion fronts. </p><p>With eight projects, including three from India, business services – for the first time ever – made it to the top three, ranking the third most popular activity in 2020.</p><h4>Sectors: agri-food tops the ranking for the sixth year in a row</h4><p>Agri-food remained the largest sector attracting foreign investment in Russia, with 42 projects announced in 2020. Among key factors contributing to its attractiveness were import substitution initiatives and the food embargo imposed in 2014. Germany and the US were the top investors in the agri-food sector.</p><p>Machinery and equipment was the second-largest sector for investment, mostly from Italy, Germany, the US and China.</p><p>Third and fourth places were shared between furniture, wood, ceramics and glass and chemicals, plastics and rubber.</p><p>https://www.ey.com/en_ru/attractiveness/21/european-attractiveness-survey-2021-russia</p><p>Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of <a href="https://www.ft.com">FT.com</a> <a href="https://help.ft.com/help/legal-privacy/terms-conditions/">T&Cs</a> and <a href="https://help.ft.com/help/legal-privacy/copyright/copyright-policy/">Copyright Policy</a>. Email <a href="mailto:licensing@ft.com">licensing@ft.com</a> to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be <a href="https://www.ft.com/tour">found here</a>. <br><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/f9c3a747-5fb3-4fc9-b5a3-c47168fcde60#myft:my-news:page">https://www.ft.com/content/f9c3a747-5fb3-4fc9-b5a3-c47168fcde60#myft:my-news:page</a><br><br>The Kremlin said on Friday that Vladimir Putin was set to meet German business leaders following a similar event with Italian executives, prompting a warning by the German government that a Russian invasion of Ukraine would put economic ties between Moscow and Berlin at risk.</p><p>Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of <a href="https://www.ft.com">FT.com</a> <a href="https://help.ft.com/help/legal-privacy/terms-conditions/">T&Cs</a> and <a href="https://help.ft.com/help/legal-privacy/copyright/copyright-policy/">Copyright Policy</a>. Email <a href="mailto:licensing@ft.com">licensing@ft.com</a> to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be <a href="https://www.ft.com/tour">found here</a>. <br><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/97d15970-3c36-439d-aa38-7402f732efbc">https://www.ft.com/content/97d15970-3c36-439d-aa38-7402f732efbc</a></p><p>Net inflows of private capital to Russia have been rising over 2020-2021. By August 2021 were close to their highest level since 2015, while the share of non-resident holdings of government debt securities has also rebounded attracted by high Russian rates https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099050011302118976/pdf/P17756206d40310aa0a5e109d6fa60bc55a.pdf</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VAeX!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3b913f09-5f88-4771-b99c-adf23a0c6154_642x618.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VAeX!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3b913f09-5f88-4771-b99c-adf23a0c6154_642x618.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VAeX!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3b913f09-5f88-4771-b99c-adf23a0c6154_642x618.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VAeX!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3b913f09-5f88-4771-b99c-adf23a0c6154_642x618.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VAeX!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3b913f09-5f88-4771-b99c-adf23a0c6154_642x618.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3b913f09-5f88-4771-b99c-adf23a0c6154_642x618.png" width="642" height="618" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3b913f09-5f88-4771-b99c-adf23a0c6154_642x618.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":618,"width":642,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":90170,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VAeX!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3b913f09-5f88-4771-b99c-adf23a0c6154_642x618.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VAeX!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3b913f09-5f88-4771-b99c-adf23a0c6154_642x618.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VAeX!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3b913f09-5f88-4771-b99c-adf23a0c6154_642x618.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VAeX!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3b913f09-5f88-4771-b99c-adf23a0c6154_642x618.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>To absorb fossil fuel revenue, Russia has a National Welfare Fund whose rules were tightened in 2018. Rate of accumulation surged and in 2021 fx purchases accelerated. </p><p>https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099050011302118976/pdf/P17756206d40310aa0a5e109d6fa60bc55a.pdf</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6u9R!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe19de46a-7d46-4c4f-b0d1-e3aa6767f8e2_858x784.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6u9R!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe19de46a-7d46-4c4f-b0d1-e3aa6767f8e2_858x784.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6u9R!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe19de46a-7d46-4c4f-b0d1-e3aa6767f8e2_858x784.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6u9R!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe19de46a-7d46-4c4f-b0d1-e3aa6767f8e2_858x784.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6u9R!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe19de46a-7d46-4c4f-b0d1-e3aa6767f8e2_858x784.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/e19de46a-7d46-4c4f-b0d1-e3aa6767f8e2_858x784.png" width="858" height="784" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/e19de46a-7d46-4c4f-b0d1-e3aa6767f8e2_858x784.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":784,"width":858,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":130943,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6u9R!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe19de46a-7d46-4c4f-b0d1-e3aa6767f8e2_858x784.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6u9R!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe19de46a-7d46-4c4f-b0d1-e3aa6767f8e2_858x784.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6u9R!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe19de46a-7d46-4c4f-b0d1-e3aa6767f8e2_858x784.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6u9R!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe19de46a-7d46-4c4f-b0d1-e3aa6767f8e2_858x784.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!S9E7!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff905223f-5fa2-4b95-a681-116201172646_844x720.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!S9E7!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff905223f-5fa2-4b95-a681-116201172646_844x720.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!S9E7!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff905223f-5fa2-4b95-a681-116201172646_844x720.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!S9E7!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff905223f-5fa2-4b95-a681-116201172646_844x720.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!S9E7!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff905223f-5fa2-4b95-a681-116201172646_844x720.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f905223f-5fa2-4b95-a681-116201172646_844x720.png" width="844" height="720" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f905223f-5fa2-4b95-a681-116201172646_844x720.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":720,"width":844,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":155846,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!S9E7!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff905223f-5fa2-4b95-a681-116201172646_844x720.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!S9E7!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff905223f-5fa2-4b95-a681-116201172646_844x720.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!S9E7!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff905223f-5fa2-4b95-a681-116201172646_844x720.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!S9E7!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff905223f-5fa2-4b95-a681-116201172646_844x720.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p></p><p>US-EU-Lithuania-China-Taiwan plot thickens. <a href="https://twitter.com/noahbarkin/">@noahbarkin</a> reported that Berlin believed that Lithuania was an eager tool of US policy v. China (with eye to Russia) <a href="https://t.co/MatQm3zbvQ" title="https://www.gmfus.org/news/watching-china-europe-january-2022">gmfus.org/news/watching-…</a> Now <a href="https://twitter.com/Dimi/">@Dimi</a> reports, US trying to soften Lithuanian stan</p><p>https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/01/21/ukraine-standoff-threatens-to-derail-russias-domestic-battle-against-inflation-a76096</p><p>https://thedailyshot.com/2022/01/19/funds-tech-allocations-hit-the-lowest-level-since-2008/</p><p>https://www.ridl.io/en/fifth-generation-fighter-jets/</p><p>https://www.ridl.io/en/the-awkward-renewal-of-russia-s-cities/</p><div data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM" class="tweet" data-attrs="{"url":"https://twitter.com/NoYardstick/status/1483432217430970375?s=20","full_text":"Yes - and its worth adding that until the EU repairs its moribund enlargement policy or replaces it with something that offers Eastern European countries a close enough association to guarantee growing standards of living, trade, rule of law, etc. NATO is the only normative force ","username":"NoYardstick","name":"András Tóth-Czifra","date":"Tue Jan 18 13:32:56 +0000 2022","photos":[],"quoted_tweet":{"full_text":"This ignores arguably NATO's biggest contribution: NATO sociallzes new members into a Western security and normative framework. NATO members who joined post-Cold War haven't experienced a single coup and haven't fought a single war against one another. https://t.co/0RkYGHQAqM","username":"grudkev","name":"Gennady Rudkevich"},"retweet_count":1,"like_count":15,"expanded_url":{},"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":true}"><a class="tweet-link-top" href="https://twitter.com/NoYardstick/status/1483432217430970375?s=20" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-header"><img class="tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/NoYardstick.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @NoYardstick" loading="lazy"><div class="tweet-header-text"><span class="tweet-author-name">András Tóth-Czifra </span><span class="tweet-author-handle">@NoYardstick</span></div></div><div class="tweet-text">Yes - and its worth adding that until the EU repairs its moribund enlargement policy or replaces it with something that offers Eastern European countries a close enough association to guarantee growing standards of living, trade, rule of law, etc. NATO is the only normative force </div><div class="quote-tweet"><div class="quote-tweet-header"><img class="quote-tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_40/grudkev.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @grudkev" loading="lazy"><div class="quote-tweet-header-text"><span class="quote-tweet-name">Gennady Rudkevich </span><span class="quote-tweet-username">@grudkev</span></div></div>This ignores arguably NATO's biggest contribution: NATO sociallzes new members into a Western security and normative framework. NATO members who joined post-Cold War haven't experienced a single coup and haven't fought a single war against one another. https://t.co/0RkYGHQAqM</div></a><a class="tweet-link-bottom" href="https://twitter.com/NoYardstick/status/1483432217430970375?s=20" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-footer"><span class="tweet-date">1:32 PM ∙ Jan 18, 2022</span><hr><div class="tweet-ufi"><span href="https://twitter.com/NoYardstick/status/1483432217430970375?s=20/likes" class="likes"><span class="like-count">15</span>Likes</span><span href="https://twitter.com/NoYardstick/status/1483432217430970375?s=20/retweets" class="retweets"><span class="rt-count">1</span>Retweet</span></div></div></a></div><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-5GG!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F910687de-21e7-4ea3-a8f1-aae6e9176b0e_988x856.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-5GG!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F910687de-21e7-4ea3-a8f1-aae6e9176b0e_988x856.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-5GG!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F910687de-21e7-4ea3-a8f1-aae6e9176b0e_988x856.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-5GG!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F910687de-21e7-4ea3-a8f1-aae6e9176b0e_988x856.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-5GG!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F910687de-21e7-4ea3-a8f1-aae6e9176b0e_988x856.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/910687de-21e7-4ea3-a8f1-aae6e9176b0e_988x856.png" width="988" height="856" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/910687de-21e7-4ea3-a8f1-aae6e9176b0e_988x856.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":856,"width":988,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":173438,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-5GG!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F910687de-21e7-4ea3-a8f1-aae6e9176b0e_988x856.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-5GG!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F910687de-21e7-4ea3-a8f1-aae6e9176b0e_988x856.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-5GG!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F910687de-21e7-4ea3-a8f1-aae6e9176b0e_988x856.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-5GG!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F910687de-21e7-4ea3-a8f1-aae6e9176b0e_988x856.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!JC_L!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1607aaa7-5811-4cb9-bd0f-0098a9982f9a_972x838.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!JC_L!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1607aaa7-5811-4cb9-bd0f-0098a9982f9a_972x838.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!JC_L!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1607aaa7-5811-4cb9-bd0f-0098a9982f9a_972x838.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!JC_L!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1607aaa7-5811-4cb9-bd0f-0098a9982f9a_972x838.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!JC_L!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1607aaa7-5811-4cb9-bd0f-0098a9982f9a_972x838.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/1607aaa7-5811-4cb9-bd0f-0098a9982f9a_972x838.png" width="972" height="838" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/1607aaa7-5811-4cb9-bd0f-0098a9982f9a_972x838.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":838,"width":972,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":137851,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!JC_L!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1607aaa7-5811-4cb9-bd0f-0098a9982f9a_972x838.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!JC_L!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1607aaa7-5811-4cb9-bd0f-0098a9982f9a_972x838.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!JC_L!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1607aaa7-5811-4cb9-bd0f-0098a9982f9a_972x838.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!JC_L!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1607aaa7-5811-4cb9-bd0f-0098a9982f9a_972x838.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>https://thedailyshot.com/2022/01/18/us-wages-growing-at-the-fastest-pace-in-two-decades/</p><p>The impacts from sanctions would also be heavy on Europe that relies on Russia, particularly for gas imports. The main destinations of Russia’s crude oil and condensate exports are Germany (11%), Netherlands (11%), Poland (7%) and Finland (4%). The share of Russia is around 30% of EU’s total energy imports but e.g. for Finland, Russia accounts for app. 60-65% of its energy imports. Over the past years, Russia has accounted for around 40% of EU’s total gas supply, but inflow has declined and even reversed in two of the three main gas pipes running through Poland and Ukraine since December. While the already tight supply situation creates upside risks in energy prices, increased LNG shipments have compensated for the drop in Russian supply so far. While the European energy crisis has shown some signs of calming lately (see also Euro inflation notes - Energy crisis not over yet, but light at the end of the tunnel, 7 January), an escalation of Russia-Ukraine tensions remains one of the biggest upside risks to energy prices in the near-term in our view. While the euro area HICP weights of gas (1.9%) and electricity (2.9%) are relatively small, recent months already showed an increasing contribution from gas and electricity prices to euro area inflation, although the pass-through remains very heterogeneous across countries. In the scenario where a military conflict is avoided, we still expect a slowdown in euro area energy inflation during 2022, although elevated gas and electricity prices could continue to exert upward pressure in Q1 22. In case of a military conflict, including Nord Stream 2 sanctions and reduced Russian gas supplies, a gas price spike as outlined below could add another 0.7-1.5pp to our baseline forecast for euro inflation of 3.2% in 2022.</p><p>The gas market in Europe is very sensitive to any news on the tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Russia provides approximately 40% of the gas to EU and a significant part of it goes through Ukraine. Hence, any cut-off of gas supplies either due to outright conflict, sanctions or Gazprom reducing gas flows could have a devastating impact on the market. EU gas storages are at critical lows here in the middle of the heating season on the Northern Hemisphere. Hence, a cut-off in supplies over the next two months could have severe impact on prices on not just gas, but also electricity. The risk of “rolling” electricity blackouts throughout Europe due to lack of gas for power generation has been mentioned by industry experts as a possible consequence. However, the closer we get to the spring and summer where demand is low, the lesser the imminent price impact of any cut-off of gas would be. However, the market might soon start to fear a repeat during the winter 2022/23 if storages are not refilled fully throughout the summer. The chart to the right shows that the current size of gas storages in Europe relative to capacity is significantly below normal. The head of the International Energy Agency, IEA, Fatih Birol said this week in a FT interview that Russia and Gazprom was to blame for the low EU inventories. He said that Russian gas export had been down 25% in Q4 compared to 2020. He also said that especially inventories at Gazprom run storages in the EU were at a critical low level. Gas prices have already reacted to the low gas storage and the fear of a cut-off of supplies. Prices peaked at EUR 180 MWh just before Christmas. We use the Dutch TFF 1 month forward price for reference. Europe experienced a gas crisis in the beginning of 2009 as Russian gas through Ukraine was cut off. However, the situation was relatively quickly resolved and it came at the height of the financial crisis and with a better storage situation making the price impact less severe. If we have an escalation of the situation as we assume in our Scenario 2, we should expect a significant and imminent price impact. Depending on the season, a temporary spike above EUR 200 MWh is likely. However, prices will most likely move lower relatively quickly as LNG shipments arrive and as the market realize that Russian gas flows will continue. However, we should expect gas flows to be volatile and it is likely that we could go into the next heating season with very tight supplies. Hence, average prices during the heating season 2022/23 could be 10- 25% higher than during the current heating season. LNG supplies might help to ease the situation. In a scenario with fewer tensions, we should expect a normalisation on the storage situation during the summer and an EU approval of the Nordstream 2 pipeline (assuming there is no delay). Hence, we should expect a more normal market during the next heating season though the gas market will most likely operate with a higher risk premium. But prices will be significantly lower over the summer and during the next heating season. The forward curve today is probably too high. If we end of up in the last scenario with a full-blown war and new sanctions including an exclusion of Russia from SWIFT the price impact could be very severe given the current storage situation. If it happens during the heating season, LNG supplies and supply from other countries would probably not be able to make up for the supply shortfall. Hence, prices could potentially go to EUR 300 MWh and we should expect a severe impact on demand. We should expect that outright lack of gas would be seen. The risk of rolling power black-outs would be high in several European countries.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IAIH!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F28b4fd3d-0d16-4743-8851-f9770313a9a6_624x662.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IAIH!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F28b4fd3d-0d16-4743-8851-f9770313a9a6_624x662.png 424w, 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data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/28b4fd3d-0d16-4743-8851-f9770313a9a6_624x662.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":662,"width":624,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":91844,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IAIH!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F28b4fd3d-0d16-4743-8851-f9770313a9a6_624x662.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IAIH!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F28b4fd3d-0d16-4743-8851-f9770313a9a6_624x662.png 848w, 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3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>https://research.danskebank.com/research/#/Research/article/fb209029-4031-4f23-81d6-713cfb633fa6/EN</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" 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srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!MHmH!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa8051114-8813-44f6-bb15-a81583947223_978x958.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!MHmH!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa8051114-8813-44f6-bb15-a81583947223_978x958.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!MHmH!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa8051114-8813-44f6-bb15-a81583947223_978x958.png 1272w, 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srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!MHmH!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa8051114-8813-44f6-bb15-a81583947223_978x958.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!MHmH!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa8051114-8813-44f6-bb15-a81583947223_978x958.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!MHmH!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa8051114-8813-44f6-bb15-a81583947223_978x958.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!MHmH!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa8051114-8813-44f6-bb15-a81583947223_978x958.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><div data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM" class="tweet" data-attrs="{"url":"https://twitter.com/paulwsj/status/1483504456339791872?s=20","full_text":"The U.S. is preparing financial sanctions on pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine as Secretary of State Antony Blinken heads to Europe to meet the Ukrainian leadership and his Russian counterpart - scoop from <span class=\"tweet-fake-link\">@vmsalama</span> $ <span class=\"tweet-fake-link\">@willmauldin</span> ","username":"paulwsj","name":"Paul Beckett","date":"Tue Jan 18 18:19:59 +0000 2022","photos":[],"quoted_tweet":{},"retweet_count":34,"like_count":36,"expanded_url":{"url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-aims-sanctions-at-pro-russian-separatists-as-antony-blinken-plans-ukraine-russia-meetings-11642529955","image":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/09da06ae-7ca0-4cd8-89fe-8d7b71213dbb_1280x640.jpeg","title":"WSJ News Exclusive | U.S. Aims Sanctions at Pro-Russian Agents as Blinken Plans Ukraine, Russia Meetings","description":"Pending sanctions, which will freeze the assets of at least four individuals, could be announced as early as Thursday","domain":"wsj.com"},"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":true}"><a class="tweet-link-top" href="https://twitter.com/paulwsj/status/1483504456339791872?s=20" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-header"><img class="tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/paulwsj.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @paulwsj" loading="lazy"><div class="tweet-header-text"><span class="tweet-author-name">Paul Beckett </span><span class="tweet-author-handle">@paulwsj</span></div></div><div class="tweet-text">The U.S. is preparing financial sanctions on pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine as Secretary of State Antony Blinken heads to Europe to meet the Ukrainian leadership and his Russian counterpart - scoop from <span class="tweet-fake-link">@vmsalama</span> $ <span class="tweet-fake-link">@willmauldin</span> </div><a class="expanded-link" href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-aims-sanctions-at-pro-russian-separatists-as-antony-blinken-plans-ukraine-russia-meetings-11642529955" target="_blank"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/09da06ae-7ca0-4cd8-89fe-8d7b71213dbb_1280x640.jpeg" class="expanded-link-img" loading="lazy"><div class="expanded-link-bottom"><span class="expanded-link-domain">wsj.com</span><span class="expanded-link-title">WSJ News Exclusive | U.S. Aims Sanctions at Pro-Russian Agents as Blinken Plans Ukraine, Russia Meetings</span><span class="expanded-link-description">Pending sanctions, which will freeze the assets of at least four individuals, could be announced as early as Thursday</span></div></a></a><a class="tweet-link-bottom" href="https://twitter.com/paulwsj/status/1483504456339791872?s=20" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-footer"><span class="tweet-date">6:19 PM ∙ Jan 18, 2022</span><hr><div class="tweet-ufi"><span href="https://twitter.com/paulwsj/status/1483504456339791872?s=20/likes" class="likes"><span class="like-count">36</span>Likes</span><span href="https://twitter.com/paulwsj/status/1483504456339791872?s=20/retweets" class="retweets"><span class="rt-count">34</span>Retweets</span></div></div></a></div><div data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM" class="tweet" data-attrs="{"url":"https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1483550255018913794?s=20","full_text":"The guy mentions a potential killer \"Danila\" who would assassinate U.S. Senator <span class=\"tweet-fake-link\">@SenatorMenendez</span>. \"Danila\" is a fictional character from \"Brat 2\" Russian movie - an essential masterpiece which forged the current Russian political narrative and repeatedly quoted by Putin himself. ","username":"sumlenny","name":"Sergej Sumlenny","date":"Tue Jan 18 21:21:58 +0000 2022","photos":[],"quoted_tweet":{"full_text":"Meanwhile on #Russia's Kremlin-funded state TV: \n\nState Duma member Aleksei Zhuravlyov—who previously threatened U.S. Congressman @RepRubenGallego—is now issuing death threats against the Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee @SenatorMenendez. Watch: https://t.co/wlktCUBvrU","username":"JuliaDavisNews","name":"Julia Davis"},"retweet_count":19,"like_count":23,"expanded_url":{},"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":true}"><a class="tweet-link-top" href="https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1483550255018913794?s=20" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-header"><img class="tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/sumlenny.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @sumlenny" loading="lazy"><div class="tweet-header-text"><span class="tweet-author-name">Sergej Sumlenny </span><span class="tweet-author-handle">@sumlenny</span></div></div><div class="tweet-text">The guy mentions a potential killer "Danila" who would assassinate U.S. Senator <span class="tweet-fake-link">@SenatorMenendez</span>. "Danila" is a fictional character from "Brat 2" Russian movie - an essential masterpiece which forged the current Russian political narrative and repeatedly quoted by Putin himself. </div><div class="quote-tweet"><div class="quote-tweet-header"><img class="quote-tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_40/JuliaDavisNews.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @JuliaDavisNews" loading="lazy"><div class="quote-tweet-header-text"><span class="quote-tweet-name">Julia Davis </span><span class="quote-tweet-username">@JuliaDavisNews</span></div></div>Meanwhile on #Russia's Kremlin-funded state TV:
State Duma member Aleksei Zhuravlyov—who previously threatened U.S. Congressman @RepRubenGallego—is now issuing death threats against the Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee @SenatorMenendez. Watch: https://t.co/wlktCUBvrU</div></a><a class="tweet-link-bottom" href="https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1483550255018913794?s=20" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-footer"><span class="tweet-date">9:21 PM ∙ Jan 18, 2022</span><hr><div class="tweet-ufi"><span href="https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1483550255018913794?s=20/likes" class="likes"><span class="like-count">23</span>Likes</span><span href="https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1483550255018913794?s=20/retweets" class="retweets"><span class="rt-count">19</span>Retweets</span></div></div></a></div><p>Rob Lee on compellance</p><p>https://www.fpri.org/article/2022/01/moscows-compellence-strategy/</p><div data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM" class="tweet" data-attrs="{"url":"https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1483544432439877633?s=20","full_text":"My argument regarding Russia's behavior:\n1) Moscow switched from deterrence to compellence \n2) The key issue is Moscow believes Kyiv will remain hostile and is increasing its defensive capabilities\n3) the costs of inaction are greater than an escalation\n","username":"RALee85","name":"Rob Lee","date":"Tue Jan 18 20:58:50 +0000 2022","photos":[],"quoted_tweet":{},"retweet_count":150,"like_count":445,"expanded_url":{"url":"https://www.fpri.org/article/2022/01/moscows-compellence-strategy/","image":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/c92aaea6-9aab-4c72-851f-d25999048a8c_1880x1160.jpeg","title":"Moscow’s Compellence Strategy - Foreign Policy Research Institute","description":"How ambitious are Russia’s foreign policy objectives, and how much force does Moscow believe it must employ to achieve them? Moscow has submitted various","domain":"fpri.org"},"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":true}"><a class="tweet-link-top" href="https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1483544432439877633?s=20" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-header"><img class="tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/RALee85.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @RALee85" loading="lazy"><div class="tweet-header-text"><span class="tweet-author-name">Rob Lee </span><span class="tweet-author-handle">@RALee85</span></div></div><div class="tweet-text">My argument regarding Russia's behavior:
1) Moscow switched from deterrence to compellence
2) The key issue is Moscow believes Kyiv will remain hostile and is increasing its defensive capabilities
3) the costs of inaction are greater than an escalation
</div><a class="expanded-link" href="https://www.fpri.org/article/2022/01/moscows-compellence-strategy/" target="_blank"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/c92aaea6-9aab-4c72-851f-d25999048a8c_1880x1160.jpeg" class="expanded-link-img" loading="lazy"><div class="expanded-link-bottom"><span class="expanded-link-domain">fpri.org</span><span class="expanded-link-title">Moscow’s Compellence Strategy - Foreign Policy Research Institute</span><span class="expanded-link-description">How ambitious are Russia’s foreign policy objectives, and how much force does Moscow believe it must employ to achieve them? Moscow has submitted various</span></div></a></a><a class="tweet-link-bottom" href="https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1483544432439877633?s=20" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-footer"><span class="tweet-date">8:58 PM ∙ Jan 18, 2022</span><hr><div class="tweet-ufi"><span href="https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1483544432439877633?s=20/likes" class="likes"><span class="like-count">445</span>Likes</span><span href="https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1483544432439877633?s=20/retweets" class="retweets"><span class="rt-count">150</span>Retweets</span></div></div></a></div><div data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM" class="tweet" data-attrs="{"url":"https://twitter.com/bogdansnicolae/status/1483378441735090179?s=20","full_text":"<span class=\"tweet-fake-link\">@konrad_muzyka</span> Based on the <span class=\"tweet-fake-link\">@FT</span> figures, roughly 50% of the foreign reserves are in US dollars and euros. ","username":"bogdansnicolae","name":"Bogdan Nicolae","date":"Tue Jan 18 09:59:15 +0000 2022","photos":[{"img_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/media/FJYEjcHXwAEBTIi.jpg","link_url":"https://t.co/9y0DQDN8m7","alt_text":null}],"quoted_tweet":{},"retweet_count":0,"like_count":4,"expanded_url":{},"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":true}"><a class="tweet-link-top" href="https://twitter.com/bogdansnicolae/status/1483378441735090179?s=20" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-header"><img class="tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/bogdansnicolae.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @bogdansnicolae" loading="lazy"><div class="tweet-header-text"><span class="tweet-author-name">Bogdan Nicolae </span><span class="tweet-author-handle">@bogdansnicolae</span></div></div><div class="tweet-text"><span class="tweet-fake-link">@konrad_muzyka</span> Based on the <span class="tweet-fake-link">@FT</span> figures, roughly 50% of the foreign reserves are in US dollars and euros. </div><div class="tweet-photos-container one"><div class="tweet-photo-wrapper "><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!8ttD!,w_600,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FFJYEjcHXwAEBTIi.jpg"><img class="tweet-photo" src="https://pbs.substack.com/media/FJYEjcHXwAEBTIi.jpg" alt="Image" loading="lazy"></picture></div></div></a><a class="tweet-link-bottom" href="https://twitter.com/bogdansnicolae/status/1483378441735090179?s=20" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-footer"><span class="tweet-date">9:59 AM ∙ Jan 18, 2022</span></div></a></div><div data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM" class="tweet" data-attrs="{"url":"https://twitter.com/Eraxite1/status/1483381575135944707?s=20","full_text":"<span class=\"tweet-fake-link\">@McFaul</span> -\nRussia a dictatorship? Not that I can see here. People don't even listen to Putin when he says to get vaccinated 👇\n- ","username":"Eraxite1","name":"Eraxite","date":"Tue Jan 18 10:11:42 +0000 2022","photos":[{"img_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/media/FJYHri5XIAAkNii.jpg","link_url":"https://t.co/18S9mi25Gb","alt_text":null}],"quoted_tweet":{},"retweet_count":0,"like_count":3,"expanded_url":{},"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":true}"><a class="tweet-link-top" href="https://twitter.com/Eraxite1/status/1483381575135944707?s=20" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-header"><img class="tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/Eraxite1.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @Eraxite1" loading="lazy"><div class="tweet-header-text"><span class="tweet-author-name">Eraxite </span><span class="tweet-author-handle">@Eraxite1</span></div></div><div class="tweet-text"><span class="tweet-fake-link">@McFaul</span> -
Russia a dictatorship? Not that I can see here. People don't even listen to Putin when he says to get vaccinated 👇
- </div><div class="tweet-photos-container one"><div class="tweet-photo-wrapper "><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!bB7n!,w_600,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FFJYHri5XIAAkNii.jpg"><img class="tweet-photo" src="https://pbs.substack.com/media/FJYHri5XIAAkNii.jpg" alt="Image" loading="lazy"></picture></div></div></a><a class="tweet-link-bottom" href="https://twitter.com/Eraxite1/status/1483381575135944707?s=20" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-footer"><span class="tweet-date">10:11 AM ∙ Jan 18, 2022</span></div></a></div><div data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM" class="tweet" data-attrs="{"url":"https://twitter.com/MotolkoHelp/status/1483395602042036224?s=20","full_text":"The Belarusian-Russian military drills “Union Resolve – 2022” will be held from 10.02 to 20.02. They will work on reinforcement of the state border, searching for illegal armed groups &amp; enemy groups and destroying them, as well as post-conflict settlement issues. ","username":"MotolkoHelp","name":"MotolkoHelp","date":"Tue Jan 18 11:07:26 +0000 2022","photos":[{"img_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/media/FJYUb7dXMAAQkPs.jpg","link_url":"https://t.co/vIBY7TRlan","alt_text":null}],"quoted_tweet":{},"retweet_count":36,"like_count":57,"expanded_url":{},"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":true}"><a class="tweet-link-top" href="https://twitter.com/MotolkoHelp/status/1483395602042036224?s=20" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-header"><img class="tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/MotolkoHelp.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @MotolkoHelp" loading="lazy"><div class="tweet-header-text"><span class="tweet-author-name">MotolkoHelp </span><span class="tweet-author-handle">@MotolkoHelp</span></div></div><div class="tweet-text">The Belarusian-Russian military drills “Union Resolve – 2022” will be held from 10.02 to 20.02. They will work on reinforcement of the state border, searching for illegal armed groups & enemy groups and destroying them, as well as post-conflict settlement issues. </div><div class="tweet-photos-container one"><div class="tweet-photo-wrapper "><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!JEzy!,w_600,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FFJYUb7dXMAAQkPs.jpg"><img class="tweet-photo" src="https://pbs.substack.com/media/FJYUb7dXMAAQkPs.jpg" alt="Image" loading="lazy"></picture></div></div></a><a class="tweet-link-bottom" href="https://twitter.com/MotolkoHelp/status/1483395602042036224?s=20" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-footer"><span class="tweet-date">11:07 AM ∙ Jan 18, 2022</span><hr><div class="tweet-ufi"><span href="https://twitter.com/MotolkoHelp/status/1483395602042036224?s=20/likes" class="likes"><span class="like-count">57</span>Likes</span><span href="https://twitter.com/MotolkoHelp/status/1483395602042036224?s=20/retweets" class="retweets"><span class="rt-count">36</span>Retweets</span></div></div></a></div><div data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM" class="tweet" data-attrs="{"url":"https://twitter.com/noahbarkin/status/1483388583088119812?s=20","full_text":"\"In the SPD, the old Schröder network is active. It sees Russia mainly as a partner, not a threat, and is doing what it can to undermine clear signals to the Kremlin on sanctions. 'Don't look up' is the hit Netflix show. For members of the German coalition, it's 'Don't look east' ","username":"noahbarkin","name":"Noah Barkin","date":"Tue Jan 18 10:39:32 +0000 2022","photos":[],"quoted_tweet":{"full_text":"Was sieht Putin, wenn er gen Westen blickt? Einen geschwächten US-Präsidenten, eine konfliktscheue EU und ein Führungsvakuum in Deutschland. Kurz: eine günstige Gelegenheit. @handelsblatt: Europas Unschlüssigkeit verleitet Russland zur Aggression https://t.co/4czF7ulefY","username":"MoritzKoch78","name":"Moritz Koch"},"retweet_count":12,"like_count":32,"expanded_url":{},"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":true}"><a class="tweet-link-top" href="https://twitter.com/noahbarkin/status/1483388583088119812?s=20" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-header"><img class="tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/noahbarkin.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @noahbarkin" loading="lazy"><div class="tweet-header-text"><span class="tweet-author-name">Noah Barkin </span><span class="tweet-author-handle">@noahbarkin</span></div></div><div class="tweet-text">"In the SPD, the old Schröder network is active. It sees Russia mainly as a partner, not a threat, and is doing what it can to undermine clear signals to the Kremlin on sanctions. 'Don't look up' is the hit Netflix show. For members of the German coalition, it's 'Don't look east' </div><div class="quote-tweet"><div class="quote-tweet-header"><img class="quote-tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_40/MoritzKoch78.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @MoritzKoch78" loading="lazy"><div class="quote-tweet-header-text"><span class="quote-tweet-name">Moritz Koch </span><span class="quote-tweet-username">@MoritzKoch78</span></div></div>Was sieht Putin, wenn er gen Westen blickt? Einen geschwächten US-Präsidenten, eine konfliktscheue EU und ein Führungsvakuum in Deutschland. Kurz: eine günstige Gelegenheit. @handelsblatt: Europas Unschlüssigkeit verleitet Russland zur Aggression https://t.co/4czF7ulefY</div></a><a class="tweet-link-bottom" href="https://twitter.com/noahbarkin/status/1483388583088119812?s=20" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-footer"><span class="tweet-date">10:39 AM ∙ Jan 18, 2022</span><hr><div class="tweet-ufi"><span href="https://twitter.com/noahbarkin/status/1483388583088119812?s=20/likes" class="likes"><span class="like-count">32</span>Likes</span><span href="https://twitter.com/noahbarkin/status/1483388583088119812?s=20/retweets" class="retweets"><span class="rt-count">12</span>Retweets</span></div></div></a></div><p>https://www.ridl.io/en/what-sanctions-can-deter-russia-from-another-aggression-in-ukraine/</p><p>https://www.ridl.io/en/we-are-being-dragged-into-a-war/?fbclid=IwAR1zlODI-gQSPfLk6m4PTxh7HTwPSdlfKXONZsYf4Ohvc0S0PkmlhJ2ppws</p><div data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM" class="tweet" data-attrs="{"url":"https://twitter.com/NGurushina/status/1483478288123236354?s=20","full_text":"Why Ukraine CDS are reacting more than Russia CDS?\n\n&gt; Ukraine has much higher debt (% GDP) and significantly lower reserves\n&gt; Ukraine’s territorial integrity is under threat\n&gt; But - Russia CDS blew to 600+ during the 2014 war – despite the same debt/reserves positives ","username":"NGurushina","name":"Natalia Gurushina","date":"Tue Jan 18 16:36:00 +0000 2022","photos":[{"img_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/media/FJZfSnBXoAIhRVA.png","link_url":"https://t.co/PBAtQpk1Kx","alt_text":null}],"quoted_tweet":{},"retweet_count":6,"like_count":42,"expanded_url":{},"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":true}"><a class="tweet-link-top" href="https://twitter.com/NGurushina/status/1483478288123236354?s=20" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-header"><img class="tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/NGurushina.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @NGurushina" loading="lazy"><div class="tweet-header-text"><span class="tweet-author-name">Natalia Gurushina </span><span class="tweet-author-handle">@NGurushina</span></div></div><div class="tweet-text">Why Ukraine CDS are reacting more than Russia CDS?
> Ukraine has much higher debt (% GDP) and significantly lower reserves
> Ukraine’s territorial integrity is under threat
> But - Russia CDS blew to 600+ during the 2014 war – despite the same debt/reserves positives </div><div class="tweet-photos-container one"><div class="tweet-photo-wrapper "><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!osnl!,w_600,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FFJZfSnBXoAIhRVA.png"><img class="tweet-photo" src="https://pbs.substack.com/media/FJZfSnBXoAIhRVA.png" alt="Image" loading="lazy"></picture></div></div></a><a class="tweet-link-bottom" href="https://twitter.com/NGurushina/status/1483478288123236354?s=20" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-footer"><span class="tweet-date">4:36 PM ∙ Jan 18, 2022</span><hr><div class="tweet-ufi"><span href="https://twitter.com/NGurushina/status/1483478288123236354?s=20/likes" class="likes"><span class="like-count">42</span>Likes</span><span href="https://twitter.com/NGurushina/status/1483478288123236354?s=20/retweets" class="retweets"><span class="rt-count">6</span>Retweets</span></div></div></a></div><div data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM" class="tweet" data-attrs="{"url":"https://twitter.com/elinaribakova/status/1483534925315952641?s=20","full_text":"An important change in language from German authorities on Nord Stream 2: FinMin Baerbock says NS2 would be \"a target\" in case of further escalation in Ukraine. NS2 does not change the overall EU dependency on Russia's energy and it is not yet clear what methods EU can use. ","username":"elinaribakova","name":"Elina Ribakova","date":"Tue Jan 18 20:21:03 +0000 2022","photos":[{"img_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/media/FJaS7DAWQAENqve.png","link_url":"https://t.co/X0IxLSI1UZ","alt_text":null}],"quoted_tweet":{},"retweet_count":1,"like_count":2,"expanded_url":{},"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":true}"><a class="tweet-link-top" href="https://twitter.com/elinaribakova/status/1483534925315952641?s=20" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-header"><img class="tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/elinaribakova.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @elinaribakova" loading="lazy"><div class="tweet-header-text"><span class="tweet-author-name">Elina Ribakova </span><span class="tweet-author-handle">@elinaribakova</span></div></div><div class="tweet-text">An important change in language from German authorities on Nord Stream 2: FinMin Baerbock says NS2 would be "a target" in case of further escalation in Ukraine. NS2 does not change the overall EU dependency on Russia's energy and it is not yet clear what methods EU can use. </div><div class="tweet-photos-container one"><div class="tweet-photo-wrapper "><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HaIr!,w_600,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FFJaS7DAWQAENqve.png"><img class="tweet-photo" src="https://pbs.substack.com/media/FJaS7DAWQAENqve.png" alt="Image" loading="lazy"></picture></div></div></a><a class="tweet-link-bottom" href="https://twitter.com/elinaribakova/status/1483534925315952641?s=20" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-footer"><span class="tweet-date">8:21 PM ∙ Jan 18, 2022</span><hr><div class="tweet-ufi"><span href="https://twitter.com/elinaribakova/status/1483534925315952641?s=20/likes" class="likes"><span class="like-count">2</span>Likes</span><span href="https://twitter.com/elinaribakova/status/1483534925315952641?s=20/retweets" class="retweets"><span class="rt-count">1</span>Retweet</span></div></div></a></div><div data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM" class="tweet" data-attrs="{"url":"https://twitter.com/tashecon/status/1483505304130179074?s=20","full_text":"Overwhelming consensus from sell side research is no war. So if “new” bullets fly then the additional sell off will be ugly. ","username":"tashecon","name":"Timothy Ash","date":"Tue Jan 18 18:23:21 +0000 2022","photos":[],"quoted_tweet":{"full_text":"Russia: How concerned should markets be re: escalating tensions with Ukraine?\n\nSee comment below from @zav999 and chart from @NGurushina. https://t.co/LJblrvu8cA","username":"emmuser","name":"Emerging Market Muser"},"retweet_count":1,"like_count":3,"expanded_url":{},"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":true}"><a class="tweet-link-top" href="https://twitter.com/tashecon/status/1483505304130179074?s=20" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-header"><img class="tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/tashecon.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @tashecon" loading="lazy"><div class="tweet-header-text"><span class="tweet-author-name">Timothy Ash </span><span class="tweet-author-handle">@tashecon</span></div></div><div class="tweet-text">Overwhelming consensus from sell side research is no war. So if “new” bullets fly then the additional sell off will be ugly. </div><div class="quote-tweet"><div class="quote-tweet-header"><img class="quote-tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_40/emmuser.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @emmuser" loading="lazy"><div class="quote-tweet-header-text"><span class="quote-tweet-name">Emerging Market Muser </span><span class="quote-tweet-username">@emmuser</span></div></div>Russia: How concerned should markets be re: escalating tensions with Ukraine?
See comment below from @zav999 and chart from @NGurushina. https://t.co/LJblrvu8cA</div></a><a class="tweet-link-bottom" href="https://twitter.com/tashecon/status/1483505304130179074?s=20" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-footer"><span class="tweet-date">6:23 PM ∙ Jan 18, 2022</span><hr><div class="tweet-ufi"><span href="https://twitter.com/tashecon/status/1483505304130179074?s=20/likes" class="likes"><span class="like-count">3</span>Likes</span><span href="https://twitter.com/tashecon/status/1483505304130179074?s=20/retweets" class="retweets"><span class="rt-count">1</span>Retweet</span></div></div></a></div><div data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM" class="tweet" data-attrs="{"url":"https://twitter.com/OilSheppard/status/1483429290393972739?s=20","full_text":"Gazprom's behaviour and the 'special responsibility' on dominant companies in EU law. Interesting angle, certainly, which arguably counters point re: Gazprom being under no 'obligation' to sell on spot market or beyond long-term contracts\n\n<a class=\"tweet-url\" href=\"https://www.europarl.europa.eu/factsheets/en/sheet/82/competition-policy\">europarl.europa.eu/factsheets/en/…</a> ","username":"OilSheppard","name":"David Sheppard","date":"Tue Jan 18 13:21:18 +0000 2022","photos":[{"img_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/media/FJYyuvzXoAY_Ibz.png","link_url":"https://t.co/dyNEqgao6y","alt_text":null}],"quoted_tweet":{"full_text":"In reply to Katya: It doesn't help to label the (potential) application of EU law 'politicising'. EU competition law includes a 'special responsibility' for any dominant company, regardless of its owner. That is irrespective of the market model. Lex dura sed lex. https://t.co/bbBKZ1oS0N","username":"Dehessel","name":"Dennis Hesseling"},"retweet_count":0,"like_count":5,"expanded_url":{},"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":true}"><a class="tweet-link-top" href="https://twitter.com/OilSheppard/status/1483429290393972739?s=20" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-header"><img class="tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/OilSheppard.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @OilSheppard" loading="lazy"><div class="tweet-header-text"><span class="tweet-author-name">David Sheppard </span><span class="tweet-author-handle">@OilSheppard</span></div></div><div class="tweet-text">Gazprom's behaviour and the 'special responsibility' on dominant companies in EU law. Interesting angle, certainly, which arguably counters point re: Gazprom being under no 'obligation' to sell on spot market or beyond long-term contracts
<a class="tweet-url" href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/factsheets/en/sheet/82/competition-policy" target="_blank">europarl.europa.eu/factsheets/en/…</a> </div><div class="tweet-photos-container one"><div class="tweet-photo-wrapper "><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dHWU!,w_600,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FFJYyuvzXoAY_Ibz.png"><img class="tweet-photo" src="https://pbs.substack.com/media/FJYyuvzXoAY_Ibz.png" alt="Image" loading="lazy"></picture></div></div><div class="quote-tweet"><div class="quote-tweet-header"><img class="quote-tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_40/Dehessel.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @Dehessel" loading="lazy"><div class="quote-tweet-header-text"><span class="quote-tweet-name">Dennis Hesseling </span><span class="quote-tweet-username">@Dehessel</span></div></div>In reply to Katya: It doesn't help to label the (potential) application of EU law 'politicising'. EU competition law includes a 'special responsibility' for any dominant company, regardless of its owner. That is irrespective of the market model. Lex dura sed lex. https://t.co/bbBKZ1oS0N</div></a><a class="tweet-link-bottom" href="https://twitter.com/OilSheppard/status/1483429290393972739?s=20" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-footer"><span class="tweet-date">1:21 PM ∙ Jan 18, 2022</span></div></a></div><div data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM" class="tweet" data-attrs="{"url":"https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1483530343651192837?s=20","full_text":"Russian stocks take biggest tumble since March 2020\n625/\n<a class=\"tweet-url\" href=\"https://www.ft.com/content/7c8c2717-0cd4-4dc4-98d4-2f4be8142804\">ft.com/content/7c8c27…</a> ","username":"RALee85","name":"Rob Lee","date":"Tue Jan 18 20:02:51 +0000 2022","photos":[{"img_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/media/FJaO6EBX0Ak2o7T.jpg","link_url":"https://t.co/YD9cWCPp1F","alt_text":null}],"quoted_tweet":{},"retweet_count":8,"like_count":20,"expanded_url":{},"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":true}"><a class="tweet-link-top" href="https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1483530343651192837?s=20" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-header"><img class="tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/RALee85.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @RALee85" loading="lazy"><div class="tweet-header-text"><span class="tweet-author-name">Rob Lee </span><span class="tweet-author-handle">@RALee85</span></div></div><div class="tweet-text">Russian stocks take biggest tumble since March 2020
625/
<a class="tweet-url" href="https://www.ft.com/content/7c8c2717-0cd4-4dc4-98d4-2f4be8142804" target="_blank">ft.com/content/7c8c27…</a> </div><div class="tweet-photos-container one"><div class="tweet-photo-wrapper "><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!DiT8!,w_600,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FFJaO6EBX0Ak2o7T.jpg"><img class="tweet-photo" src="https://pbs.substack.com/media/FJaO6EBX0Ak2o7T.jpg" alt="Image" loading="lazy"></picture></div></div></a><a class="tweet-link-bottom" href="https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1483530343651192837?s=20" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-footer"><span class="tweet-date">8:02 PM ∙ Jan 18, 2022</span><hr><div class="tweet-ufi"><span href="https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1483530343651192837?s=20/likes" class="likes"><span class="like-count">20</span>Likes</span><span href="https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1483530343651192837?s=20/retweets" class="retweets"><span class="rt-count">8</span>Retweets</span></div></div></a></div><div data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM" class="tweet" data-attrs="{"url":"https://twitter.com/elinaribakova/status/1483528403659673600?s=20","full_text":"Russia's holdings of the U.S. Treasuries are the lowest they have been in recent history, despite $ 630 bn in reserves <span class=\"tweet-fake-link\">@bank_of_russia</span>. Working on an update on Russia sanctions white paper w <span class=\"tweet-fake-link\">@BHilgenstockIIF</span>. ","username":"elinaribakova","name":"Elina Ribakova","date":"Tue Jan 18 19:55:08 +0000 2022","photos":[{"img_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/media/FJaMfLZXIAIEqc0.png","link_url":"https://t.co/1zm2IiWgV2","alt_text":null}],"quoted_tweet":{},"retweet_count":3,"like_count":25,"expanded_url":{},"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":true}"><a class="tweet-link-top" href="https://twitter.com/elinaribakova/status/1483528403659673600?s=20" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-header"><img class="tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/elinaribakova.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @elinaribakova" loading="lazy"><div class="tweet-header-text"><span class="tweet-author-name">Elina Ribakova </span><span class="tweet-author-handle">@elinaribakova</span></div></div><div class="tweet-text">Russia's holdings of the U.S. Treasuries are the lowest they have been in recent history, despite $ 630 bn in reserves <span class="tweet-fake-link">@bank_of_russia</span>. Working on an update on Russia sanctions white paper w <span class="tweet-fake-link">@BHilgenstockIIF</span>. </div><div class="tweet-photos-container one"><div class="tweet-photo-wrapper "><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LC9F!,w_600,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FFJaMfLZXIAIEqc0.png"><img class="tweet-photo" src="https://pbs.substack.com/media/FJaMfLZXIAIEqc0.png" alt="Image" loading="lazy"></picture></div></div></a><a class="tweet-link-bottom" href="https://twitter.com/elinaribakova/status/1483528403659673600?s=20" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-footer"><span class="tweet-date">7:55 PM ∙ Jan 18, 2022</span><hr><div class="tweet-ufi"><span href="https://twitter.com/elinaribakova/status/1483528403659673600?s=20/likes" class="likes"><span class="like-count">25</span>Likes</span><span href="https://twitter.com/elinaribakova/status/1483528403659673600?s=20/retweets" class="retweets"><span class="rt-count">3</span>Retweets</span></div></div></a></div><p>https://www.ft.com/content/70f58398-8911-45d3-b1b0-cc16c4ac184d#myft:my-news:page</p><p>Oil prices hit a more than seven-year high on Tuesday on worries about supply capacity. There may be enough in Saudi, Iraq, UAE but markets are chasing higher. So …. anyone fancy Iran-style sanctions on Russia #3 producer right now? </p><p>https://www.ft.com/content/70f58398-8911-45d3-b1b0-cc16c4ac184d</p><p>Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of <a href="https://www.ft.com">FT.com</a> <a href="https://help.ft.com/help/legal-privacy/terms-conditions/">T&Cs</a> and <a href="https://help.ft.com/help/legal-privacy/copyright/copyright-policy/">Copyright Policy</a>. Email <a href="mailto:licensing@ft.com">licensing@ft.com</a> to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be <a href="https://www.ft.com/tour">found here</a>. <br><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/a2eaba73-cec8-4a0f-b991-7de558bb0ee1">https://www.ft.com/content/a2eaba73-cec8-4a0f-b991-7de558bb0ee1</a><br><br>270 Print this page Russia’s efforts to reduce its reliance on the global financial system have made it better prepared to weather the sanctions that the US and Europe have warned would follow a new attack on Ukraine. The relative success of what investors have called Moscow’s “Fortress Russia” strategy is likely to make western threats less of a deterrent, analysts say. Meanwhile, the EU has not weaned itself off Russian gas, making any restrictions on Russian energy exports potentially self-damaging — and leaving the possibility for Moscow to retaliate by limiting supplies. The western sanctions under discussion could go far beyond those passed following Russia’s annexation of the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea in 2014. They could ape punitive measures used against Iran and North Korea that all but cut the countries off from the global economy. But Russia’s finance ministry, which has stress-tested worst-case scenarios for years and set up a unit working to counter possible measures from the US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control, says Russia’s economy could withstand even those types of measures. “Obviously, it’s unpleasant, but it’s do-able. I think our financial institutions can handle it [if] these risks emerge,” finance minister Anton Siluanov said last week. The possibility of Russian aggression against Ukraine and subsequent financial retaliation from the US and Europe has increased after talks in Geneva and Brussels to defuse tensions were deemed “unsuccessful” by the Kremlin last week. Russian president Vladimir Putin has deployed more than 100,000 troops along the Ukrainian border and threatened military action unless the west meets a series of security demands. “When Putin asks what do we do if we get punished with sanctions for military actions, his officials can salute and say, ‘Yes, Vladimir Vladimirovich, we know exactly what to do’. And that gives them a sense of confidence that sanctions aren’t anything to worry about,” said Alexander Gabuev, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Moscow Center. Since 2014, Russia has ramped up its foreign currency reserves and sought to start “de-dollarising” its economy. Central bank reserves have soared more than 70 per cent since late 2015 and now surpass $620bn. Dollar reserves made up about 16.4 per cent of total reserves last year, from 22.2 per cent in June 2020, according to data published last week. About a third of the reserves are in euros, 21.7 per cent are in gold and 13.1 per cent are in renminbi. In 2017, Russia gave its coffers another boost by merging its reserve fund with a newly created National Wealth Fund that accumulates surplus oil and gas revenue. Surging oil prices, which have climbed beyond Russia’s budgetary break-even price of $43 per barrel, have boosted the fund to $190bn as of the third quarter of 2021. Russia expects it to grow to $300bn by 2024. Meanwhile, government debt is equivalent to about 20 per cent of GDP and is forecast to fall to 18.5 per cent by the end of 2023, according to credit agency Fitch Ratings. Russia has also learned to lean less on foreign investors. Foreign ownership of Russian government bonds has dropped to 20 per cent after Washington barred US investors from trading in newly issued state debt last year. The measures have reduced foreign investment but also made the country less vulnerable to future external shocks or a sudden sell-off. The finance ministry sold most subsequent issuances following the ban to state-owned banks. Russian companies have learned the lesson of the first sanctions, when many struggled to raise funds to pay off loans from western banks: corporate loans from foreign lenders have slumped from $150bn in March 2014 to $80bn last year. Trade Secrets Written by FT trade specialist Alan Beattie and delivered to your inbox on Mondays, Trade Secrets is the FT’s must-read briefing on the changing face of international trade and globalisation. Sign up here The 2014 sanctions and those sanction-proofing efforts have had a cost: The Russian economy has grown 0.8 per cent annually on average since 2013, compared with 3 per cent for the global economy. The conservative fiscal policy has restricted social spending and infrastructure investment. Real incomes have plummeted in the same time period. Putin declined to spend the National Wealth Fund on pandemic relief, favouring a more limited stimulus than most western countries and a faster easing of Covid-19 restrictions, which epidemiologists say contributed to one of the world’s highest death tolls per capita. The stability of Fortress Russia “is a sort of post-Soviet style stability, where you sacrifice economic growth for the sake of stability”, said Maria Shagina, a visiting fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs. While Russia worked at reducing its dependence on foreign financing, the EU did little to reduce its reliance on Moscow’s energy exports — running the risk that sanctions could backfire. The bloc imports more than 40 per cent of its gas and a quarter of its oil from Russia — leaving it exposed to shocks. “The EU hasn’t learnt from its mistakes since 2014,” said Shagina. “It aimed to diversify from Russia in terms of gas, it aimed to become more resilient and more geopolitical. But we don’t see it.” The west also relies on Russia for other important natural resources such as titanium. This could deter any sanctions against VSMPO-Avisma, the largest supplier of titanium for Boeing’s aircraft. That interdependence may even make it more difficult for the west to pass broader sanctions against Russia’s financial sector. The US and EU are discussing a ban on transacting with major Russian state banks or cutting the country off from the SWIFT global payments system — but could only do so effectively if they stopped buying its exports, Gabuev said. “You have to leave a channel open to pay Russia for oil and gas. [Sanctions] won’t make Putin change his mind, because any damage will be acceptable and the Kremlin thinks it has an answer,” Gabuev said.</p><div data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM" class="tweet" data-attrs="{"url":"https://twitter.com/emm_mateo/status/1483076254324641798","full_text":"One of the most incredible things about the <span class=\"tweet-fake-link\">#Belarus</span> 2020 protests was the scope of mobilisation across the country. My new <span class=\"tweet-fake-link\">#openaccess</span> article with PSA shows that 100+ towns, cities &amp; villages protested in the first week post-elections. But why some places &amp; not others? 🧵1/6 ","username":"emm_mateo","name":"Emma Mateo","date":"Mon Jan 17 13:58:27 +0000 2022","photos":[{"img_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/media/FJTsA4UXEAA-MuX.png","link_url":"https://t.co/j92pmStY7r","alt_text":null}],"quoted_tweet":{},"retweet_count":99,"like_count":313,"expanded_url":{},"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":true}"><a class="tweet-link-top" href="https://twitter.com/emm_mateo/status/1483076254324641798" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-header"><img class="tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/emm_mateo.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @emm_mateo" loading="lazy"><div class="tweet-header-text"><span class="tweet-author-name">Emma Mateo </span><span class="tweet-author-handle">@emm_mateo</span></div></div><div class="tweet-text">One of the most incredible things about the <span class="tweet-fake-link">#Belarus</span> 2020 protests was the scope of mobilisation across the country. My new <span class="tweet-fake-link">#openaccess</span> article with PSA shows that 100+ towns, cities & villages protested in the first week post-elections. But why some places & not others? 🧵1/6 </div><div class="tweet-photos-container one"><div class="tweet-photo-wrapper "><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!E-fp!,w_600,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FFJTsA4UXEAA-MuX.png"><img class="tweet-photo" src="https://pbs.substack.com/media/FJTsA4UXEAA-MuX.png" alt="Image" loading="lazy"></picture></div></div></a><a class="tweet-link-bottom" href="https://twitter.com/emm_mateo/status/1483076254324641798" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-footer"><span class="tweet-date">1:58 PM ∙ Jan 17, 2022</span><hr><div class="tweet-ufi"><span href="https://twitter.com/emm_mateo/status/1483076254324641798/likes" class="likes"><span class="like-count">313</span>Likes</span><span href="https://twitter.com/emm_mateo/status/1483076254324641798/retweets" class="retweets"><span class="rt-count">99</span>Retweets</span></div></div></a></div><div data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM" class="tweet" data-attrs="{"url":"https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1483078765156704259","full_text":"Foolish Western investors in Russian bonds &amp; rubles are finally getting scared. Right now, the US should sanction VEB &amp; RDIF &amp; secondary trade in all Russian government bonds in all currencies.\nThis is the most effective peacekeeping act the West can do now!","username":"anders_aslund","name":"Anders Åslund","date":"Mon Jan 17 14:08:26 +0000 2022","photos":[],"quoted_tweet":{},"retweet_count":16,"like_count":55,"expanded_url":{},"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":true}"><a class="tweet-link-top" href="https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1483078765156704259" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-header"><img class="tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/anders_aslund.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @anders_aslund" loading="lazy"><div class="tweet-header-text"><span class="tweet-author-name">Anders Åslund </span><span class="tweet-author-handle">@anders_aslund</span></div></div><div class="tweet-text">Foolish Western investors in Russian bonds & rubles are finally getting scared. Right now, the US should sanction VEB & RDIF & secondary trade in all Russian government bonds in all currencies.
This is the most effective peacekeeping act the West can do now!</div></a><a class="tweet-link-bottom" href="https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1483078765156704259" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-footer"><span class="tweet-date">2:08 PM ∙ Jan 17, 2022</span><hr><div class="tweet-ufi"><span href="https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1483078765156704259/likes" class="likes"><span class="like-count">55</span>Likes</span><span href="https://twitter.com/anders_aslund/status/1483078765156704259/retweets" class="retweets"><span class="rt-count">16</span>Retweets</span></div></div></a></div><div data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM" class="tweet" data-attrs="{"url":"https://twitter.com/jeuasommenulle/status/1483039324358729730","full_text":"As the Russia/ NATO/US/OSCE talks didn’t make real progress, it’s important to look again at this possibility. Can they cut Russia from SWIFT &amp; would this be Armageddon for Russia? ","username":"jeuasommenulle","name":"JohannesBorgen","date":"Mon Jan 17 11:31:43 +0000 2022","photos":[{"img_url":"https://res.cloudinary.com/hhsslviub/video/upload/e_loop,vs_40/bxlv1ysvapx6dnh4esyh.gif","link_url":"https://t.co/HDq9H7Wgcj","alt_text":"Apocalypse GIF"}],"quoted_tweet":{"full_text":"BREAKING: Draft Russian sanctions bill coming out of the senate includes cutting Russia off of the SWIFT banking system if they invade Ukraine. The US used this against Iran and it set them back to the economic dark ages. https://t.co/yjl3YLt95b","username":"Billbrowder","name":"Bill Browder"},"retweet_count":18,"like_count":55,"expanded_url":{},"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":true}"><a class="tweet-link-top" href="https://twitter.com/jeuasommenulle/status/1483039324358729730" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-header"><img class="tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/jeuasommenulle.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @jeuasommenulle" loading="lazy"><div class="tweet-header-text"><span class="tweet-author-name">JohannesBorgen </span><span class="tweet-author-handle">@jeuasommenulle</span></div></div><div class="tweet-text">As the Russia/ NATO/US/OSCE talks didn’t make real progress, it’s important to look again at this possibility. Can they cut Russia from SWIFT & would this be Armageddon for Russia? </div><div class="tweet-photos-container one"><div class="tweet-photo-wrapper "><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/video/upload/e_loop,vs_40/bxlv1ysvapx6dnh4esyh.gif"><img class="tweet-photo" src="https://substackcdn.com/video/upload/e_loop,vs_40/bxlv1ysvapx6dnh4esyh.gif" alt="Apocalypse GIF" loading="lazy"></picture></div></div><div class="quote-tweet"><div class="quote-tweet-header"><img class="quote-tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_40/Billbrowder.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @Billbrowder" loading="lazy"><div class="quote-tweet-header-text"><span class="quote-tweet-name">Bill Browder </span><span class="quote-tweet-username">@Billbrowder</span></div></div>BREAKING: Draft Russian sanctions bill coming out of the senate includes cutting Russia off of the SWIFT banking system if they invade Ukraine. The US used this against Iran and it set them back to the economic dark ages. https://t.co/yjl3YLt95b</div></a><a class="tweet-link-bottom" href="https://twitter.com/jeuasommenulle/status/1483039324358729730" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-footer"><span class="tweet-date">11:31 AM ∙ Jan 17, 2022</span><hr><div class="tweet-ufi"><span href="https://twitter.com/jeuasommenulle/status/1483039324358729730/likes" class="likes"><span class="like-count">55</span>Likes</span><span href="https://twitter.com/jeuasommenulle/status/1483039324358729730/retweets" class="retweets"><span class="rt-count">18</span>Retweets</span></div></div></a></div><p>Since a January gas imports from Russia have collapsed </p><p>https://www.bruegel.org/publications/datasets/european-natural-gas-imports/</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!WpbU!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd9acea62-ed46-4371-9d30-ae3f7113f13d_1006x1132.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!WpbU!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd9acea62-ed46-4371-9d30-ae3f7113f13d_1006x1132.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!WpbU!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd9acea62-ed46-4371-9d30-ae3f7113f13d_1006x1132.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!WpbU!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd9acea62-ed46-4371-9d30-ae3f7113f13d_1006x1132.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!WpbU!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd9acea62-ed46-4371-9d30-ae3f7113f13d_1006x1132.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d9acea62-ed46-4371-9d30-ae3f7113f13d_1006x1132.png" width="1006" height="1132" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d9acea62-ed46-4371-9d30-ae3f7113f13d_1006x1132.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":1132,"width":1006,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":177521,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!WpbU!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd9acea62-ed46-4371-9d30-ae3f7113f13d_1006x1132.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!WpbU!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd9acea62-ed46-4371-9d30-ae3f7113f13d_1006x1132.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!WpbU!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd9acea62-ed46-4371-9d30-ae3f7113f13d_1006x1132.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!WpbU!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd9acea62-ed46-4371-9d30-ae3f7113f13d_1006x1132.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>If, as seems reasonable to believe, Russia began planning & preparation for an escalation of military tension in Ukraine in Q3/4 2020, there is little sign of this in published figures for government spending. </p><p>https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099050011302118976/pdf/P17756206d40310aa0a5e109d6fa60bc55a.pdf</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QxUl!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9aaff1be-e2cd-4f8b-ab4c-c13e74490318_692x796.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QxUl!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9aaff1be-e2cd-4f8b-ab4c-c13e74490318_692x796.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QxUl!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9aaff1be-e2cd-4f8b-ab4c-c13e74490318_692x796.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QxUl!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9aaff1be-e2cd-4f8b-ab4c-c13e74490318_692x796.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QxUl!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9aaff1be-e2cd-4f8b-ab4c-c13e74490318_692x796.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/9aaff1be-e2cd-4f8b-ab4c-c13e74490318_692x796.png" width="692" height="796" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/9aaff1be-e2cd-4f8b-ab4c-c13e74490318_692x796.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":796,"width":692,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":141089,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QxUl!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9aaff1be-e2cd-4f8b-ab4c-c13e74490318_692x796.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QxUl!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9aaff1be-e2cd-4f8b-ab4c-c13e74490318_692x796.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QxUl!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9aaff1be-e2cd-4f8b-ab4c-c13e74490318_692x796.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QxUl!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9aaff1be-e2cd-4f8b-ab4c-c13e74490318_692x796.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Comparative advantage. It may be reductive to describe Russia as a petrostate, but as far as its trade account is concerned it is certainly raw materials that dominate - oil, gas and other commodities. https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099050011302118976/pdf/P17756206d40310aa0a5e109d6fa60bc55a.pdf</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VQuP!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F37069db1-91df-4a97-96f9-166896aa9fba_1288x696.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VQuP!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F37069db1-91df-4a97-96f9-166896aa9fba_1288x696.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VQuP!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F37069db1-91df-4a97-96f9-166896aa9fba_1288x696.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VQuP!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F37069db1-91df-4a97-96f9-166896aa9fba_1288x696.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VQuP!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F37069db1-91df-4a97-96f9-166896aa9fba_1288x696.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/37069db1-91df-4a97-96f9-166896aa9fba_1288x696.png" width="1100" height="594" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/37069db1-91df-4a97-96f9-166896aa9fba_1288x696.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":594,"width":1100,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":188704,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VQuP!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F37069db1-91df-4a97-96f9-166896aa9fba_1288x696.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VQuP!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F37069db1-91df-4a97-96f9-166896aa9fba_1288x696.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VQuP!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F37069db1-91df-4a97-96f9-166896aa9fba_1288x696.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VQuP!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F37069db1-91df-4a97-96f9-166896aa9fba_1288x696.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><div data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM" class="tweet" data-attrs="{"url":"https://twitter.com/e_sarotte/status/1480994152582037509?s=20","full_text":"On Jan. 10, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov insisted that Ukraine “never, never, ever” join NATO.\n\nWhat is the history behind possible Ukrainian membership in NATO? That history goes back a LONG way… \n\nA historical thread.\n\n[THREAD]\n\n","username":"e_sarotte","name":"M.E. Sarotte","date":"Tue Jan 11 20:04:56 +0000 2022","photos":[],"quoted_tweet":{},"retweet_count":107,"like_count":195,"expanded_url":{"url":"https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/10/world/europe/russia-us-ukraine-talks.html","image":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/dfda0a61-13b4-44ea-b730-73b7c78206c0_1050x550.jpeg","title":"In Talks on Ukraine, U.S. and Russia Deadlock Over NATO Expansion","description":"Both sides expressed some optimism after negotiations in Geneva, but did not break an impasse over Russia’s demand that Ukraine never become a member of NATO.","domain":"nytimes.com"},"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":true}"><a class="tweet-link-top" href="https://twitter.com/e_sarotte/status/1480994152582037509?s=20" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-header"><img class="tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/e_sarotte.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @e_sarotte" loading="lazy"><div class="tweet-header-text"><span class="tweet-author-name">M.E. Sarotte </span><span class="tweet-author-handle">@e_sarotte</span></div></div><div class="tweet-text">On Jan. 10, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov insisted that Ukraine “never, never, ever” join NATO.
What is the history behind possible Ukrainian membership in NATO? That history goes back a LONG way…
A historical thread.
[THREAD]
</div><a class="expanded-link" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/10/world/europe/russia-us-ukraine-talks.html" target="_blank"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/dfda0a61-13b4-44ea-b730-73b7c78206c0_1050x550.jpeg" class="expanded-link-img" loading="lazy"><div class="expanded-link-bottom"><span class="expanded-link-domain">nytimes.com</span><span class="expanded-link-title">In Talks on Ukraine, U.S. and Russia Deadlock Over NATO Expansion</span><span class="expanded-link-description">Both sides expressed some optimism after negotiations in Geneva, but did not break an impasse over Russia’s demand that Ukraine never become a member of NATO.</span></div></a></a><a class="tweet-link-bottom" href="https://twitter.com/e_sarotte/status/1480994152582037509?s=20" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-footer"><span class="tweet-date">8:04 PM ∙ Jan 11, 2022</span><hr><div class="tweet-ufi"><span href="https://twitter.com/e_sarotte/status/1480994152582037509?s=20/likes" class="likes"><span class="like-count">195</span>Likes</span><span href="https://twitter.com/e_sarotte/status/1480994152582037509?s=20/retweets" class="retweets"><span class="rt-count">107</span>Retweets</span></div></div></a></div><div data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM" class="tweet" data-attrs="{"url":"https://twitter.com/yarbatman/status/1481953993240809474","full_text":"I agree with <span class=\"tweet-fake-link\">@adam_tooze</span> that Russia's energy exports are too large to be sanctioned. But I am not sure the same logic applies to Russia's enormous reserves. The West could waive energy exports, but still freeze FX reserves to put pressure on the ruble.\n","username":"yarbatman","name":"Esfandyar Batmanghelidj","date":"Fri Jan 14 11:39:00 +0000 2022","photos":[],"quoted_tweet":{},"retweet_count":0,"like_count":3,"expanded_url":{"url":"https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-68-putins-challenge-to?token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjo0MTk3OTMyNywicG9zdF9pZCI6NDY4NjEwNzksIl8iOiJpcktuNSIsImlhdCI6MTY0MjE1OTk0NiwiZXhwIjoxNjQyMTYzNTQ2LCJpc3MiOiJwdWItMTkyODQ1Iiwic3ViIjoicG9zdC1yZWFjdGlvbiJ9.gy0lU5wJnQGnqR4HqGqpboFwzbKFyF-sdpTPwuRwCi0","image":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b033f3b9-8cd1-4b1f-a8a0-27a6c2ba47ef_1200x542.jpeg","title":"Chartbook #68 Putin’s Challenge to Western hegemony - the 2022 edition.","description":"As NATO meets to discuss the tension on the Russian border to Ukraine, and the papers fill with denunciations of Putin’s aggression, I still find it useful to return to the framework I developed in Crashed for analyzing the intersection of geopolitics and economics and the rise of Russia as a challe…","domain":"adamtooze.substack.com"},"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":true}"><a class="tweet-link-top" href="https://twitter.com/yarbatman/status/1481953993240809474" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-header"><img class="tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/yarbatman.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @yarbatman" loading="lazy"><div class="tweet-header-text"><span class="tweet-author-name">Esfandyar Batmanghelidj </span><span class="tweet-author-handle">@yarbatman</span></div></div><div class="tweet-text">I agree with <span class="tweet-fake-link">@adam_tooze</span> that Russia's energy exports are too large to be sanctioned. But I am not sure the same logic applies to Russia's enormous reserves. The West could waive energy exports, but still freeze FX reserves to put pressure on the ruble.
</div><a class="expanded-link" href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-68-putins-challenge-to?token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjo0MTk3OTMyNywicG9zdF9pZCI6NDY4NjEwNzksIl8iOiJpcktuNSIsImlhdCI6MTY0MjE1OTk0NiwiZXhwIjoxNjQyMTYzNTQ2LCJpc3MiOiJwdWItMTkyODQ1Iiwic3ViIjoicG9zdC1yZWFjdGlvbiJ9.gy0lU5wJnQGnqR4HqGqpboFwzbKFyF-sdpTPwuRwCi0" target="_blank"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b033f3b9-8cd1-4b1f-a8a0-27a6c2ba47ef_1200x542.jpeg" class="expanded-link-img" loading="lazy"><div class="expanded-link-bottom"><span class="expanded-link-domain">adamtooze.substack.com</span><span class="expanded-link-title">Chartbook #68 Putin’s Challenge to Western hegemony - the 2022 edition.</span><span class="expanded-link-description">As NATO meets to discuss the tension on the Russian border to Ukraine, and the papers fill with denunciations of Putin’s aggression, I still find it useful to return to the framework I developed in Crashed for analyzing the intersection of geopolitics and economics and the rise of Russia as a challe…</span></div></a></a><a class="tweet-link-bottom" href="https://twitter.com/yarbatman/status/1481953993240809474" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-footer"><span class="tweet-date">11:39 AM ∙ Jan 14, 2022</span></div></a></div><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rJ0B!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F32dd1613-47fd-4837-afb9-246a4ac41215_614x566.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rJ0B!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F32dd1613-47fd-4837-afb9-246a4ac41215_614x566.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rJ0B!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F32dd1613-47fd-4837-afb9-246a4ac41215_614x566.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rJ0B!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F32dd1613-47fd-4837-afb9-246a4ac41215_614x566.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rJ0B!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F32dd1613-47fd-4837-afb9-246a4ac41215_614x566.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/32dd1613-47fd-4837-afb9-246a4ac41215_614x566.png" width="614" height="566" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/32dd1613-47fd-4837-afb9-246a4ac41215_614x566.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":566,"width":614,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":78971,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rJ0B!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F32dd1613-47fd-4837-afb9-246a4ac41215_614x566.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rJ0B!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F32dd1613-47fd-4837-afb9-246a4ac41215_614x566.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rJ0B!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F32dd1613-47fd-4837-afb9-246a4ac41215_614x566.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!rJ0B!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F32dd1613-47fd-4837-afb9-246a4ac41215_614x566.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!adsZ!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fee4ab406-af6e-419d-ab1c-13c0632baf1f_1310x520.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!adsZ!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fee4ab406-af6e-419d-ab1c-13c0632baf1f_1310x520.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!adsZ!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fee4ab406-af6e-419d-ab1c-13c0632baf1f_1310x520.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!adsZ!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fee4ab406-af6e-419d-ab1c-13c0632baf1f_1310x520.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!adsZ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fee4ab406-af6e-419d-ab1c-13c0632baf1f_1310x520.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ee4ab406-af6e-419d-ab1c-13c0632baf1f_1310x520.png" width="1100" height="437" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/ee4ab406-af6e-419d-ab1c-13c0632baf1f_1310x520.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":437,"width":1100,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":99312,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!adsZ!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fee4ab406-af6e-419d-ab1c-13c0632baf1f_1310x520.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!adsZ!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fee4ab406-af6e-419d-ab1c-13c0632baf1f_1310x520.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!adsZ!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fee4ab406-af6e-419d-ab1c-13c0632baf1f_1310x520.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!adsZ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fee4ab406-af6e-419d-ab1c-13c0632baf1f_1310x520.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099050011302118976/pdf/P17756206d40310aa0a5e109d6fa60bc55a.pdf</p><p>Commodities are a major component of Russia’s economy. In 2019 they accounted for more than 10 percent of economic activity, nearly 70 percent of total goods exports, and around 21 percent of fiscal revenues. Russia is also a major producer and exporter of commodities globally, accounting for about 10 percent or more of global production of crude oil, natural gas, gold, platinum, and wheat. In turn, this reliance on commodities means Russia’s economy is heavily influenced by global commodity market developments. The sharp decline and subsequent rebound in energy prices in 2020-21 is the latest example of this. This box considers how Russia’s production and export of key commodities has changed over the past 10 years and examines recent trends in the energy sector. Long-term trends. The importance of commodities for Russia has evolved over the last decade, reflecting shifts in production, commodity prices, and the U.S. dollar exchange rate. Among the commodities which Russia is a major producer, the largest increases in production over the past decade (2010-19) have been in wheat and nitrogen fertilizer, both of which saw increases of more than 70 percent, followed by gold (51 percent), and coal (36 percent), with Russia’s share of global production of these commodities also increasing (Figure B3-1A and B). Oil and natural gas production rose by 13 percent; however, this was also during a period when OPEC+ was managing oil production. In contrast, production of refined nickel fell sharply by 43 percent reflecting a declining production of nickel ore as mines closed. Aluminum production also declined slightly by 7 percent, leading to a fall in Russia’s share of global production of both metals. Today, Russia is the world’s second largest producer of aluminum, natural gas, and platinum, and third largest producer of crude oil, gold, and nickel ore. In terms of exports, energy commodities, notably oil and natural gas, are Russia’s largest source of export revenue, accounting for more than half of total goods exports, and around three-quarters of commodity exports over 2018-20 (Figure B3-1C). However, this share has fallen from around two-thirds in 2008-10, primarily as a result of a decline in oil prices. In contrast, metal exports account for about 10 percent of total goods exports, and agricultural exports around 7 percent, both of which have risen slightly since 2008-10. Agricultural exports in particular have grown significantly; over the past decade the value of agricultural exports tripled, led by increased exports of wheat (Figure B3-1D). Russia is now the world’s largest exporter of wheat.</p><p>https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099050011302118976/pdf/P17756206d40310aa0a5e109d6fa60bc55a.pdf</p><p>On the blogs the debate was legal and conceptual.</p><p>Those insisting on the legality and legitimacy of Mattarella’s intervention did so on the grounds that he was buying time for serious democratic debate about the systemic issues at stake. </p><p>These tensions were inescapable. They were foreseen by Italy’s constitutional drafters. They also envisioned their extension to the European level. The current crisis was the result of an emerging clarity about the scale of the European formation and its fundamental stakes i.e. security. That did indeed need to be anchored by serious debate rather than the kind of crisis-driven helterskelter that many feared the Lega was intent on unleashing. </p><p>In reaction to them, LSE argued that though the pressure was real, the idea that constitutionalism as a matter of legal norms was the issue was naive. Rather like fauschi, indeed using the same concept of a material constitution, LSE dude argued that the real problem was a crisis of the material constitution and this had to be understood as operating above all in Italy. </p><p>I have looked in vain for a direct comparison of the notion of matierla constitution used by facuhi and lse guy and his writing partner. So far to no avail. My sense from a brief reading is that fauchi drives his notion directly from the single principle of security as teh core, lse guy and his writing partner use the neglected third-way weimar legal theorist Heller to split the difference.</p><p>What that givers them is a definition of the mateiral constitution in terms of </p><p>Italy is locus classicus for unity question. Purpose is the most interesting aspect. </p><p>Draghi can of course be diagnosed as operating at all four levels. The question is whether the games that he performs there can be translated to the national Italian level. As LSE guy argues, citing Fazi, the question may be whether the organic crisis of Italy can be overcome.</p><p>Strikingly in none of this work is there any refernece to middelaar who was made into the center piece of Perry Anderson’s huge trilogy of essays on Europe. </p><p>I have a review of MIddelaar’s book coming out in New STatesman by the end of the month that will triangulate some these issues. WAtch this space. </p><p>There are immediate questions at stake. Will Draghi be better for reform in one position or another. Will Draghi be able to drive change from the President’s seat or will his role be largely defensive? </p><p>These issues beg deeper question about Italian politics. How the constitution functions and what Draghi’s ascent means. You can view this from a point of constitutional logic, the functioning of the EU, democracy v. golden fetters of the eurozone. The question right now that seems important to focus on is dynamic i.e. what do moments of presidentialism do to the functioning of Italian parliamentary politics and the competitive game between its parties. How far has presidentialism opened the door not just to disruptive forces in general, but the right-ward populist drift? As the French might say, rightification (droitisation). </p><p>Interventions by the Italian President have become more important in recent decades. The locus classicus for this in the last decade is the clash of 2011, the unseating of Berlusconi. That led not to right populism but Monti’s technocrats. The movement it supercharged was 5 star. </p><p>More immediately relevant, in part because it involved Mattarella, was 2018 when the President vetoed the appointment of the euroskeptic economist Savona as Finance Minister. </p><p>Italy’s debts surged during covid and after 2008, but much of it is legacy debt from the years of loose living in the 1980s and the interest accumulated on that debt. Italy’s fiscal stance in recent decades has been austere. For long periods of time it was the most austere in Europe. </p><p>Other than the legacy debts the main source of the problem is the lack of nominal gdp growth - the denominator in the debt/gdp ratio. </p><p>In trying to bear down on a large debt burden, a modest amount of inflation can be a big help. So, the deflationary pressures prevailing worldwide have not helped. On top of that since 2000 Italy’s real GDP growth has been anemic-to-non-existent. Even the most austere fiscal policy will struggle to reduce the debt to gdp level if the denominator of the ratio is frozen. Italian economists of the Bocconi school did their best to persuade themselves and the world that austere contraction might actually increase the growth rate. As far as Italy is concerned the data hardly support the theory. Fiscal austerity (primary surpluses) weigh on demand slowing growth in the short-term and reducing the incentive to invest. </p><p>Many sophisticated theories have been developed to account for Italy’s stagnation. The smart money seems to be on models that combine shocks - IT, China, Eurozone crisis - with underlying constraints. </p><p>The immediate problem however is how to make the Italian debt manageable. </p><p>But those shocks acted on and compounded structural difficulties. </p><p>What is not is the growth problem that means that Italy ahs less resourrce with which to handle the debt.</p><p>In light of this problem, Europe heaved a sigh of relief when Draghi was hauled in. Europe was lit up with the “Draghi effect”. </p><p>It is easy to see why establishment rallied around him. </p><p>But on the other hand there are two types of concern: economic and political. They are intertwined, which is another reason that Italy is so crucial. It is an important testbed for Europe’s political economy or what some scholars have usefully called the material constitution. </p><p>I picked up this theme12 months ago in comparison with Yellen. we returned to it in anotherp iece with FP this weekend. </p><p>On the economic side the question is simply one of size and impact. The NextGen EU package is large. But is it large enough? Fazi thinks not. One can see why. But one should not underestimate this amount of spending. </p><p>Nevertheless, the IMF latest assessment on Italy, which I cite as just one case hardly suggests a revolution. </p><p>Optimists see a way forward. The least they should admit is that it is a gamble. </p><p>As far as the financial problem is concerned and European politics it is the momentum, the sense of optimism that matters. </p><p>The more immediate question is political. Draghi was chosen by the President. The fifth non parliamentary prime minister. He was the fourth PM to be so picked. Now the question is whether he will become President himself. That is the immediate occasion for the article. The sometimes arcane selection process starts on January 24.</p><p>In February, immediately after his inauguration, Biden announced that he was extending the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty with Russia, which was due to expire on February 5. He confirmed this in a phone call with Putin who favored the extension. </p><p>In March, Biden created a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/18/world/europe/russia-biden-putin-killer.html">stir in U.S.-Russia relations</a> by agreeing with a journalist that Putin was a “killer.” That provoked a diplomatic spat with the Russian ambassador being withdrawn for the first time in almost eighty years.</p><p>But in light of the build up of tension in Ukraine, Biden then contacted Putin in April, gave him fair warning of Treasury sanctions against Russia’s “malign behavior,” but then called for talks in Europe to deescalate tensions. </p><p>If one of the Russian objectives, apart from deterring Ukrainian action, was to channel diplomacy “upwards”, away from the Normandy format with Europe and Ukraine, towards bilateral negotiations with Washington, the tactics seemed to be working. </p><p>Over the following weeks Moscow deescalated the military tension on the border of Ukraine and then, to general surprise, on May 20 the Biden administration lifted its sanctions against the Nord Stream pipeline. The result was to trigger uproar on Capitol Hill. The Republican hardliners in the Senate led Senator Cruz has effectively vetoed any Biden foreign policy nominees. But it set the stage for the meeting in Geneva on June 16 that passed off respectfully with a statement of irreconcilable positions. </p><p>That sense of a new reality of antagonism was confirmed by the publication on 2 July 2021 of Russia’s new <a href="http://publication.pravo.gov.ru/Document/View/0001202107030001">National Security Strategy</a>. Even more explicitly than its predecessor document of 2015 it sets out a new and antagonistic view of the world. As Trenin puts it: </p><p>It is much more than an update of the previous paper, adopted in 2015. Back then, relations with the West had already sharply deteriorated as a result of the Ukraine crisis, but were still considered salvageable; much of the liberal phraseology inherited from the 1990s was still in use; and the world still looked more or less unified. The current version of arguably the most important Kremlin strategy statement—covering not only national security issues, but a whole range of others, from the economy to the environment, and values to defense—is a manifesto for a different era: one defined by the increasingly intense confrontation with the United States and its allies; a return to traditional Russian values; and the critical importance for Russia’s future of such issues as technology and climate. The strategy lays out a view of a world undergoing transformation and turmoil. The hegemony of the West, it concludes, is on the way out, but that is leading to more conflicts, and more serious ones at that. This combination of historical optimism (the imminent end of Western hegemony) and deep concern (as it is losing, the West will fight back with even more ferocity) is vaguely reminiscent of Stalin’s famous dictum of the sharpening of the class struggle along the road to socialism. Economically, Russia faces unfair competition in the form of various restrictions designed to damage it and hold it back; in terms of security, the use of force is a growing threat; in the realm of ethics, Russia’s traditional values and historical legacy are under attack; in domestic politics, Russia has to deal with foreign machinations aimed at provoking long-term instability in the country. This external environment fraught with mounting threats and insecurities is regarded as an epoch, rather than an episode.</p><p>Against this sobering background, the central feature of the strategy is its focus on Russia itself: its demographics, its political stability and sovereignty, national accord and harmony, economic development on the basis of new technologies, protection of the environment and adaptation to climate change, and—last but not least—the nation’s spiritual and moral climate. This inward focus is informed by history. The United States and some of its NATO allies are now officially branded unfriendly states. Relations with the West are de-prioritized and those countries ranked last in terms of closeness, behind former Soviet countries; the strategic partners China and India; non-Western institutions such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, BRICS, and the Russia-India-China trio; and other Asian, Latin American, and African countries. In addition to U.S. military deployments and its system of alliances, U.S.-based internet giants with their virtual monopoly in the information sphere, and the U.S. dollar that dominates global finances are also seen as instruments of containing Russia.</p><p>https://carnegiemoscow.org/commentary/84893</p><p>Meanwhile, in the Ukraine tension continued to bubble. escalated. In June a prominent former special operations commander Serhiy Kryvonos <a href="https://lenta.ru/news/2021/07/29/knockout/">said</a> Ukraine should be ready to strike Russia with a swift “knockout” once it is weakened. On 23 June the Royal Navy destroyer HMS Defender conducted a freedom of navigation exercise in Crimea and met Russian resistance. </p><p>On 22 August Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy opened the Crimean Platform summit in Kyiv Monday to build pressure on Russia over its annexation of the Crimea territory, which is viewed as illegal by most of the world. Officials from 46 countries and blocs are taking part in the two-day summit, including representatives from each of the 30 NATO members. The U.S. delegation is headed up by Secretary of Energy Jennifer M. Granholm. https://www.voanews.com/a/europe_ukraine-opens-international-summit-crimea/6209891.html </p><p>A fwe weeks later, speaking virtually from Poland on Wednesday, Granholm said the U.S. and the European Union had to be prepared to “stand up” when there are energy-producing nations who may be “manipulating supply to benefit themselves.” She didn’t specify what actions the U.S. government might consider taking.</p><p>https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-22/u-s-says-europe-energy-crisis-raises-manipulation-concerns?sref=wOrDP8KX</p><p>The current commander in chief of the armed forces, Valery Zalushny <a href="https://www.5.ua/ru/obshchestvo/ya-khotel-bi-proekhatsia-tankom-po-krasnoi-ploshchady-y-po-arbatu-hlavnokomanduiushchyi-vsu-valeryi-zaluzhnii-v-randevu-253851.html">said</a> in September that he'd like to drive a tank through Red Square. Granted, both these comments were made on prime-time public television — and the latter in response to a viewer’s question — but one would question the wisdom of trolling a powerful and paranoid neighbor that has a track record of taking such comments far too seriously. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/01/06/why-russia-fears-a-ukrainian-offensive-a75984</p><p>Sep 2021 moscow, side-stepping normandy format, seeks to engage the US directly in converations about ukraine</p><p>june 15 In anticipation of the meeting between presidents Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden in Geneva, the Kremlin is not looking for a reset, or even a détente. Nor is there any prospect of a grand bargain of the kind that some Russians thought potentially doable at the start of the Donald Trump presidency. There are no illusions in Moscow: adversarial relations with Washington are here to stay.</p><p>Russian unilateral concessions are also out of the question in the face of consolidated U.S. power and Washington’s closer coordination with allies. In principle, President Putin would be open to some sort of strategic compromise with the United States, but he must know that President Biden and the U.S. political class as a whole are not interested in that, to put it mildly. </p><p>Nor does Putin need the meeting as proof of him being on an equal footing with Biden. From the Kremlin’s perspective, Russia’s international status does not rest on the fact of holding periodic one-on-one meetings with an American president, but rather on the ability to reliably deter U.S. military power and on being resilient to mounting U.S. economic, financial, and political pressure in the form of various restrictions. </p><p>That said, Moscow has set itself several tasks for the Geneva meeting: above all, to explain to Joe Biden in no uncertain terms where Russia’s red lines lie. These include inviting Ukraine to join NATO, deploying U.S. military forces and bases—particularly INF-range missiles—in Ukraine, condoning Kyiv’s attempts to recover Donbas or Crimea by force, seeking to prize Belarus away from Russia, and so on. </p><p>In addition to that, Putin will engage with Biden on the modalities of a structured dialogue on strategic stability, potentially leading to negotiations on a new U.S.-Russian arms control accord. It might also be good to mutually lift restrictions on Russian and U.S. diplomatic representations in each other’s country, to include the return of Russian diplomatic property seized by Washington. In Moscow’s view, a dialogue on cybersecurity issues with the United States would make sense. However, no Russian apology with regard to its alleged interference in U.S. elections should be expected.</p><p>Putin is certainly not looking for a shouting match with Biden in Geneva. He does not have to prove to his audience at home that he can stand his ground and push back against Biden’s rhetoric. Putin will listen, of course, to what Biden has to say, but no discussion of Russian domestic politics will ensue. </p><p>Rather, Putin will probably be interested in assessing where Biden’s real concerns lie; where the sensitive areas may be in which mutual restraint, rather than unattainable compromise arrangements, may be the best way forward for now; and how the United States might act and respond under different scenarios. The focus of the conversation will be solely on international issues, both bilateral and global. </p><p>The importance of Vladimir Putin’s meeting with Joe Biden should not be exaggerated. Putin did not seek out the meeting. When offered one by Biden, Putin did not rush to accept Biden’s invitation, but took time to consider it. To Putin, Biden’s invitation was never a reward: as the leader of a great power and one of the two nuclear superpowers, he finds it normal to transact business with his U.S. counterpart. Putin’s recent messages to the wider world are less about what he can do together with the American president, and more about what Russia can do alone—and, if need be, against the wishes of the U.S. government. </p><p>With all that in mind, the meeting in Geneva may be useful to both sides. The confrontation between them will continue, but hopefully with more secure guardrails built and maintained around it. As for the future of the U.S.-Russia relationship, it will not be decided at top-level meetings, but shaped in the very course of the ongoing confrontation. The most important thing is that it does not get out of hand.</p><p>In June 2021, a British destroyer sailed through territorial waters off Crimea, which London does not recognize as belonging to Russia, provoking the Russians to fire in its direction. </p><p>kraine passed legislation that denied ethnic Russians the status of an indigenous community and prepared to adopt another law that, in Moscow’s view, would be tantamount to Kyiv formally leaving the Minsk accords. In Donbas, the Ukrainians used a Turkish-made drone to strike pro-Russian forces; NATO significantly increased its presence and activity in the Black Sea; and U.S. strategic bombers flew missions as close as 20 kilometers from the Russian border, according to Putin. The gas price crunch in Europe provoked <a href="https://carnegiemoscow.org/commentary/85632">bitter accusations</a> that Russia had caused it. Even the <a href="https://carnegiemoscow.org/commentary/85765">migrant crisis</a> on Poland’s border, part of a plan by Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko to punish the EU and coerce its leaders into a dialogue with him, was blamed directly on the Kremlin. What some in Moscow had prematurely called the “spirit of Geneva” all but evaporated.</p><p>On 22 August </p><p><strong>22 Aust 2021 crimea platform launched by kiev to reclaim territory taken by russia </strong></p><p>The current commander in chief of the armed forces, Valery Zalushny <a href="https://www.5.ua/ru/obshchestvo/ya-khotel-bi-proekhatsia-tankom-po-krasnoi-ploshchady-y-po-arbatu-hlavnokomanduiushchyi-vsu-valeryi-zaluzhnii-v-randevu-253851.html">said</a> in September that he'd like to drive a tank through Red Square. Granted, both these comments were made on prime-time public television — and the latter in response to a viewer’s question — but one would question the wisdom of trolling a powerful and paranoid neighbor that has a track record of taking such comments far too seriously. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/01/06/why-russia-fears-a-ukrainian-offensive-a75984</p><p>Sep 2021 moscow, side-stepping normandy format, seeks to engage the US directly in converations about ukraine</p><p>24 sep 2021 elections to russian state duma return solid vote for communists as a kind. vote of mute protest half a million donbass citizens https://carnegiemoscow.org/commentary/85430</p><p>11 oct 2021 11.10.2021, 00:20</p><h1>Why contacts with the current Ukrainian leadership are meaningless https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5028300</h1><p>Nov 2021 German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, then foreign minister, could not even get Kyiv to accept a compromise that would have allowed for elections in the Donbas region. Last November, the Russians went so far as to publish private diplomatic correspondence between their foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, and his French and German counterparts to demonstrate how the Western powers fully sided with Ukrainian government’s stance.</p><p>On November 10, for example, U.S. secretary of state Antony Blinken and Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba announced in Washington a <a href="https://www.state.gov/u-s-ukraine-charter-on-strategic-partnership/">U.S.-Ukraine Charter on Strategic Partnership. </a>They promised to continue to deepen bilateral cooperation in the political, security, defense, economic, energy, and other spheres. The charter also reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, including Crimea, “in the face of ongoing Russian aggression.” As part of the security and defense cooperation, the United States has already sold weapons, such as Javelin anti-tank missiles and launchers, to Ukraine.</p><p>Nov 2021 Lukashenko signs new as yet unrevealed constitution for Belarus and Belarus and Russia agree watered down intergration agreement. </p><p>In November 2021, a U.S. strategic bomber flew within 13 miles of the Russian border in the Black Sea region, infuriating Putin. As tensions rose, Western military advisers, instructors, arms, and ammunition poured into Ukraine. Russians also suspect that a training center the United Kingdom is constructing in Ukraine is in fact a foreign military base. Putin is particularly adamant that deploying U.S. missiles in Ukraine that can reach Moscow in five to seven minutes cannot and will not be tolerated.</p><p>On Nov. 18, a few weeks after <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/russian-troop-movements-near-ukraine-border-prompt-concern-in-us-europe/2021/10/30/c122e57c-3983-11ec-9662-399cfa75efee_story.html">reports</a> began emerging about Russian troop buildup, Vladimir Putin made his now famous “red lines,” statement, widely seen as the first harbinger of Moscow’s ultimatum for a new European security architecture on its own terms. But in his <a href="http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67123">speech</a>, he identified “Ukraine’s internal crisis” and its “failure to fulfill [Minsk] obligations” as Russia’s most pressing security issue. The West was “exacerbating” the situation by supplying Kiev with weapons.</p><p>Putin quite clearly said “tensions should remain” — i.e. Russia would not deescalate — so long as there was risk of “them” — i.e. Ukraine and NATO — “staging some kind of conflict” on Russia’s western border. </p><p>The campaign began on November 18, when President Vladimir Putin, speaking at a meeting of senior Foreign Ministry officials, called for “serious long-term guarantees that ensure Russia’s security.”</p><p>nov 23 The Biden administration is considering sending military advisers and new weapons to Ukraine in the face of a Russian military buildup near the border between the two countries, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/22/politics/us-considering-weaponry-ukraine/index.html">CNN reported Tuesday</a>.</p><p>The proposed lethal aid package could include mortars, air defense systems such as stinger missiles and new Javelin anti-tank and anti-armor missiles, multiple sources familiar with the deliberations told the outlet.</p><p>Then on Nov. 24, Security Council head Nikolai Patrushev <a href="https://aif.ru/politics/world/zapad_i_ego_zalozhniki_nikolay_patrushev_o_prichinah_krizisa_s_migrantami">alleged</a> that the “West destroyed” Ukraine’s economy; as a result the country could “set ablaze” causing a security crisis for Russia, with an influx of thousands of refugees. </p><p>It’s not clear how exactly Patrushev imagined Ukraine would “set ablaze,” and while Ukrainian domestic turbulence would affect the war in Donbass, it’s not easy to understand how this domestic turbulence would directly impact Russia’s security. </p><p>Unless, that is, one imagines a highly unlikely scenario in which Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s government collapses, nationalist hardliners take over, and, with NATO assistance in the form of lethal weapons, attempt to retake Crimea and Donbass by force. </p><p>Yet <a href="https://uatv.ua/en/putin-s-statement-about-ukraine-s-alleged-preparation-of-military-operation-in-donbas-not-true-ukrainian-mfa/">Ukraine has denied</a> any such plans, while Zelenskiy has repeatedly affirmed his commitment to peace, all but ruling out any imminent military solution on Ukraine’s part. Why does Moscow, if its comments are genuine, continue to believe it?</p><p>https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/01/06/why-russia-fears-a-ukrainian-offensive-a75984</p><p>Dec Half (50%) of those polled believe that the United States and other NATO countries are the initiators of the exacerbation of the situation in eastern Ukraine. 16% think that Ukraine was the initiator of the escalation, 3% - the unrecognized republics of the DPR and LPR, 4% - Russia. https://www.levada.ru/2021/12/14/obostrenie-v-donbasse/</p><p>On December 1, at a ceremony for newly arrived foreign ambassadors, Putin was more specific.</p><p>“While engaging in dialogue with the United States and its allies, we will insist on the elaboration of concrete agreements that would rule out any further eastward expansion of NATO and the deployment of weapons systems posing a threat to us in close proximity to Russia’s territory. We suggest that substantive talks on this topic should be started. I would like to note in particular that we need precisely legal, juridical guarantees, because our Western colleagues have failed to deliver on verbal commitments they made.” https://carnegiemoscow.org/commentary/86067</p><p>In early December 2021, U.S. State Department officials told Ukraine that NATO membership for that country is unlikely to be approved in the next decade.</p><p>Dec 7 2021 For having confirmed to Putin the U.S. commitment to taking part in resolving the Ukraine conflict, Biden needs something in exchange—like showing the world he has managed to stop Putin and prevent a war. That’s no mean feat, and a powerful defense against those who have criticized him for even sitting down with Putin. For this reason, among others, the idea of an impending war began to take on a life of its own even before the summit, and to have as much impact on the behavior of the parties involved as actual events. The source of this talk of a coming war is Western media, politicians, and experts: not the Kremlin, which prefers to use secret special operations to achieve its goals, rather than openly mobilize its troops, which is more a way of strengthening its negotiating position.</p><p>Biden has come out of this as the leader who prevented a war, Biden proposed a separate meeting to address Russia’s security concerns between Moscow and the five major NATO allies: an unusual format that may be to the Russian leadership’s liking, in the absence of the most intransigent NATO members from Eastern Europe. The very recognition of such concerns around Ukraine in the White House’s description of the summit is not typical. </p><p>The fact is, Ukraine would like to believe that the United States does not find the Minsk agreements acceptable either. Yet despite its support for Kyiv, Washington has repeatedly said that the agreements are the <a href="https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-at-a-press-availability-at-the-nato-ministerial/">most important</a> and, effectively, the only way of resolving the conflict in eastern Ukraine. The United States cannot, without losing face, give public assurances that Ukraine will not join NATO. Its intentions on this issue can only be divined from indirect signs over several months, or even years.</p><p>For Moscow, progress on implementing the parts of the Minsk agreements that are most unpalatable to Kyiv, along with a discussion about NATO enlargement, would show that its concerns are being taken seriously, rather than being ignored in the hope they will blow over. The problem is that Kyiv is prepared to wait until any fresh insistence on the Minsk agreements being implemented blows over. Just as the West overestimates the absolute influence of Putin, Moscow is mistaken when it sees Ukraine as a mere U.S. satellite. The West may have a lot of levers of influence over Kyiv, but nothing can replace the conflict in the Donbas as a source of anti-Russian mobilization within Ukraine, and a way of attracting allies and constantly putting pressure on Moscow in international affairs.</p><p>Russia could be satisfied with a neutral, friendly, bilingual Ukraine, but that would be seen as a humiliating step backwards by many in Ukraine. For this reason, the danger of renewed hostilities in eastern Ukraine is considerably less virtual than the presidential summit. Handing over responsibility for the Minsk agreements to the United States is Putin’s final attempt to resolve the issue of Ukraine before 2024—when his current term ends—within the existing legal framework. If that doesn’t work, Putin, who is consolidating his political and historical legacy ahead of 2024, will look for other ways of resolving the Ukraine crisis.</p><p>Dec 16 2021 tass reports ukrainian think tanks say that Zelenskiy undersatnds that NATO membership is not a real option and needing russian aggression to justify retrospectively his unrealistic western push</p><p>Presidents Putin and Xi Jinping are already discussing financial mechanisms to protect their countries from U.S. sanctions. In that case, Putin’s scheduled visit to China for the Winter Olympics in February 2022 might turn out to be more than a courtesy call. The United States could then see the current <a href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/2021-10-18/russia-no-mideast-superpower">Chinese-Russian</a> entente turning into a tighter alliance. Economic, technological, financial, and military cooperation between the two powers would reach new levels.</p><p>in 2021 ratcheted up tensions with Moscow at a time when Ukraine could not afford to provoke its neighbor.</p><p>2021 Feb It was Zelensky who moved first. He dealt a serious blow to the Russophone opposition by closing down its TV stations and charging its leaders with high treason. From a staunchly nationalist position, he advanced into the political territory of former president Petro Poroshenko. He took on the legal system head-on and elevated the National Security and Defense Council to the top position in the Ukrainian government. Most recently, he also demonstrated his willingness to stand up to Russia.</p><p>In February, Zelensky ordered troops (as part of the rotation process) and heavy weapons (as a show of force) to go near to the conflict zone in Donbas. He did not venture out as far as Poroshenko, who dispatched small Ukrainian naval vessels through the Russian-controlled waters near the Kerch Strait in late 2018, but it was enough to get him noticed in Moscow. The fact of the matter is that even if Ukraine cannot seriously hope to win the war in Donbas, it can successfully provoke Russia into action. Given the current state of Russian-U.S. relations, Moscow felt it had nothing to lose and something to gain by acting boldly and on a larger scale. Russia decided not so much to test the new U.S. president as to warn him early on of the dangers involved regarding Ukraine.</p><p>The Russian military massed troops along the entire Russo-Ukrainian border, from the north to the east to the south. It did so visibly and made sure that Western observers could analyze the maneuvers and conclude that they might not necessarily be a drill. Some reports, for example, spoke of field hospitals being brought to the border. In making its move, Moscow was pursuing several objectives:</p><p>To intimidate and deter Ukraine’s leaders, whom the Kremlin regards as inexperienced and irresponsible (in Kozak’s disparaging words, “children with matches”);</p><p>To send a message to the United States urging Washington to take better care of its wards, lest they get America itself into trouble </p><p>Having made their points by means of actions on the ground, the Russians were then available to discuss the situation, both with German and French political leaders and the top U.S. military commander. In those conversations, they dismissed out of hand all European criticisms about the troop movements on their own territory and only engaged in a detailed professional discussion with the U.S. chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, simply to help him avoid a dangerous miscalculation. However, it is less clear whether Russia’s demonstration will lead to the United States monitoring its Ukrainian clients more closely and avoiding making misleading statements of the kind that landed Saakashvili in trouble in 2008. As for the Germans and the French, who of course are much more worried about a war in their own neighborhood, they have little influence in Kyiv. Russian pleas for the Europeans to take a less uncritical attitude toward Ukrainian policies and actions are unlikely to be heeded.</p><p>The 2015 Minsk II agreement, the basis of the diplomatic process for ending the Donbas conflict, was stillborn. To the keepers of the national flame in Kyiv, implementing that agreement would always have been a case of high treason. Poroshenko only signed it because the Ukrainian military was decimated in Donbas, and it was the only way to stop the disaster. Putting the agreement into practice, however, threatened to undermine the work of the Maidan revolution by giving Russia a foothold, and thus was deemed completely unacceptable. Withdrawing from the Minsk agreement is not an option for Kyiv either, however, because the agreement was brokered by Berlin and Paris. Zelensky’s mission to get Russia to agree to a major revision of the Minsk terms in Ukraine’s favor has turned out to be impossible. </p><p>Expanding the format of the Normandy talks (currently held among France, Germany, Russia, and Ukraine) to get the dialogue to result in an agreement is both impossible—Russia is unlikely to agree to U.S. participation—and impractical: even if the United States, which is not particularly willing, were to join, it would not lead to Russia yielding under U.S. pressure. </p><p>Absent progress on the Minsk agreement and Normandy talks, however, diplomacy will be increasingly practiced not in the usual way of harrowing but confidential negotiations (tellingly, Russia’s Kozak, frustrated with his counterparts, proposed making the talks public: a nonstarter, of course), but by means of sending messages through specific actions, like Russia’s current exploits on the Ukraine border. The only lifeline to peace left then will be direct contact between the Russian and U.S. military chiefs. </p><p>Moscow is probing the Biden administration. Will they harden as their rhetoric suggest? Or are they principally concerned with China, as the stance of Sullivan et al seems to suggest. </p><p>If aim of game is to shift balance in Ukraine in Russia’s favor, to force US to define how far it will go, this implies concessions to Russia by the US. Those will be hard to make unless Biden can claim to have managed the crisis. </p><p>would require Kiev to agree to constitutional change and autonomy for the EAstern regions and would be regarded as treachery by many in Ukrainian politics. The European partners in the Normandy process refused to twist Ukraine’s arm. Instead, Ukraine is held in an unstable limbo. The basic logic of Russia’s actions in 2021 is to try to resolve this in its interests, not to annexe EAstern Ukraine but to turn Ukraine into the decenteralized and neutralized multi-lingual state that it would prefer, whilst extracting commitments that there will be no resumption of the project of NATO membership.</p><p>But if that is the goal, why is it making the move now? At this point the economic logic has receded into the background as a framing condition. What is in the foreground are three different political dynamics. Putin and his legacy. 2024. Ukraine. Biden presidency. </p><p>Broadly speaking I still find the framework </p><p>Trenin is surely right to say that Russia feels itself to be on the defensive. </p><p>But it’s crucial to note that Putin has presided over four waves of <a href="http://nato%20enlargement/">NATO enlargement</a> and has had to accept Washington’s withdrawal from treaties governing anti-ballistic missiles, intermediate-range nuclear forces, and unarmed observation aircraft. For him, Ukraine is the last stand. The Russian commander-in-chief is supported by his security and military establishments and, despite the Russian public’s fear of a war, faces no domestic opposition to his foreign policy. Most importantly, he cannot afford to be seen bluffing.</p><p>https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russia-fsu/2021-12-28/what-putin-really-wants-ukraine</p><p>But that still begs the question. If as Western commentators insist there is no risk of attack, there is no risk of expansion, then why now? </p><p>There are some explanations we can rule out. One are economic factors. </p><p>No doubt the economic situation is not great.</p><p>It does explain an increasing militarization of discourse and policy. </p><p>aug 2020 At the same time, the militarization of official rhetoric and the growing authority of the army—which <a href="https://www.levada.ru/2020/09/21/doverie-institutam/">overtook</a> the presidency in a list of most trusted institutions in 2020—strengthened the so-called “Crimea consensus.” The sociological parameters began to change in 2018, however, with the dissipation of the rallying-around-the-flag effect. If in 2014 26 percent of respondents said that “Russia was surrounded by enemies on all sides,” then that opinion was shared by just 16 percent in 2020. The number of Russians who believed it was futile to look for enemies because “the root of the evil was Russia’s own mistakes” <a href="https://www.levada.ru/sbornik-obshhestvennoe-mnenie/obshhestvennoe-mnenie-2020/">rose</a> from 17 percent to 25 percent in the same period. https://carnegiemoscow.org/commentary/86013 </p><p>You might be tempted to reverse the logic and ask whether Russia’s huge foreign exchange reserves provide an answer. They are a crucial precondition. But again it is not a trigger. </p><p>Moscow thought it had the latter at least with Minsk 2015 and could achieve the former through frozen war in Donbass. </p><p>Minsk has not been implemented in Russian view because Ukraine is refusing and Europeans are conniving. </p><p>2019 april kremlin starts issuing russian passports to donbass residents → 220k plus by early 2021. half a million apparentlty voted in duma election in 2021. </p><p>That accounts for frustration. It doesnt explain why Russia would escalate. </p><!--
{
"post_id": "47125404.chartbook-69-war-in-sight-russia",
"post_date": "2022-01-14T16:13:26.126Z",
"is_published": true,
"email_sent_at": "2022-01-14T16:13:26.403Z",
"inbox_sent_at": "2022-01-14T16:13:26.403Z",
"type": "newsletter",
"audience": "everyone",
"title": "Chartbook #69: War in Sight? Russia-Ukraine scenarios.",
"subtitle": "Tracking the escalating tension. "
}
-->
<p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{"url":"https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe now","action":null,"class":null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p>We are counting military trains! </p><div data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM" class="tweet" data-attrs="{"url":"https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1481968626701934592?s=20","full_text":"Nona-S 120mm mortars, T-80BV tanks, MT-LB, and BMP-3. Almost certainly from the Pacific Fleet’s 155th Naval Infantry Brigade traveling through Krasnoyarsk. 545/\n ","username":"RALee85","name":"Rob Lee","date":"Fri Jan 14 12:37:08 +0000 2022","photos":[{"img_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/media/FJECnGRXIAQTsUK.jpg","link_url":"https://t.co/rBJvmv7kfW","alt_text":null},{"img_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/media/FJECnGPXMA4eYMj.jpg","link_url":"https://t.co/rBJvmv7kfW","alt_text":null},{"img_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/media/FJECnGPWYAADet0.jpg","link_url":"https://t.co/rBJvmv7kfW","alt_text":null},{"img_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/media/FJECnGSWUAMKrJO.jpg","link_url":"https://t.co/rBJvmv7kfW","alt_text":null}],"quoted_tweet":{"full_text":"Красноярский край 14.01.2022 https://t.co/NEjnkGm7d9","username":"4emberlen","name":"4emberlen"},"retweet_count":24,"like_count":61,"expanded_url":{},"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":false}"><a class="tweet-link-top" href="https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1481968626701934592?s=20" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-header"><img class="tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/RALee85.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @RALee85"><div class="tweet-header-text"><span class="tweet-author-name">Rob Lee </span><span class="tweet-author-handle">@RALee85</span></div></div><div class="tweet-text">Nona-S 120mm mortars, T-80BV tanks, MT-LB, and BMP-3. Almost certainly from the Pacific Fleet’s 155th Naval Infantry Brigade traveling through Krasnoyarsk. 545/
</div><div class="tweet-photos-container four"><div class="tweet-photos-column"><div class="tweet-photo-wrapper half-height-container"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-KDt!,w_600,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FFJECnGRXIAQTsUK.jpg"><img class="tweet-photo" src="https://pbs.substack.com/media/FJECnGRXIAQTsUK.jpg" alt="Image"></picture></div><div class="tweet-photo-wrapper half-height-container"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!mmaC!,w_600,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FFJECnGPWYAADet0.jpg"><img class="tweet-photo" src="https://pbs.substack.com/media/FJECnGPWYAADet0.jpg" alt="Image"></picture></div></div><div class="tweet-photos-column"><div class="tweet-photo-wrapper half-height-container"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!FShO!,w_600,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FFJECnGPXMA4eYMj.jpg"><img class="tweet-photo" src="https://pbs.substack.com/media/FJECnGPXMA4eYMj.jpg" alt="Image"></picture></div><div class="tweet-photo-wrapper half-height-container"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!uAy9!,w_600,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FFJECnGSWUAMKrJO.jpg"><img class="tweet-photo" src="https://pbs.substack.com/media/FJECnGSWUAMKrJO.jpg" alt="Image"></picture></div></div></div><div class="quote-tweet"><div class="quote-tweet-header"><img class="quote-tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_40/4emberlen.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @4emberlen"><div class="quote-tweet-header-text"><span class="quote-tweet-name">4emberlen </span><span class="quote-tweet-username">@4emberlen</span></div></div>Красноярский край 14.01.2022 https://t.co/NEjnkGm7d9</div></a><a class="tweet-link-bottom" href="https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1481968626701934592?s=20" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-footer"><span class="tweet-date">12:37 PM ∙ Jan 14, 2022</span><hr><div class="tweet-ufi"><span href="https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1481968626701934592?s=20/likes" class="likes"><span class="like-count">61</span>Likes</span><span href="https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1481968626701934592?s=20/retweets" class="retweets"><span class="rt-count">24</span>Retweets</span></div></div></a></div><p>For a blow by blow tracking of events, @RALee85 is a great follow. This #545 in a LONG thread. </p><p><strong>“Our patience has run out”</strong></p><p>From Lavrov’s presser earlier today</p><div data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM" class="tweet" data-attrs="{"url":"https://twitter.com/Nat_Vasilyeva/status/1481909316865118209?s=20","full_text":"I've asked Russian FM Lavrov at this morning's press conference why Moscow is in such a rush seeking a security deal. What happened?\nLavrov's response: \"Things have been piling up... We're very patient but our patience has run out.\"","username":"Nat_Vasilyeva","name":"Nataliya Vasilyeva","date":"Fri Jan 14 08:41:28 +0000 2022","photos":[],"quoted_tweet":{},"retweet_count":90,"like_count":199,"expanded_url":{},"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":false}"><a class="tweet-link-top" href="https://twitter.com/Nat_Vasilyeva/status/1481909316865118209?s=20" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-header"><img class="tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/Nat_Vasilyeva.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @Nat_Vasilyeva"><div class="tweet-header-text"><span class="tweet-author-name">Nataliya Vasilyeva </span><span class="tweet-author-handle">@Nat_Vasilyeva</span></div></div><div class="tweet-text">I've asked Russian FM Lavrov at this morning's press conference why Moscow is in such a rush seeking a security deal. What happened?
Lavrov's response: "Things have been piling up... We're very patient but our patience has run out."</div></a><a class="tweet-link-bottom" href="https://twitter.com/Nat_Vasilyeva/status/1481909316865118209?s=20" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-footer"><span class="tweet-date">8:41 AM ∙ Jan 14, 2022</span><hr><div class="tweet-ufi"><span href="https://twitter.com/Nat_Vasilyeva/status/1481909316865118209?s=20/likes" class="likes"><span class="like-count">199</span>Likes</span><span href="https://twitter.com/Nat_Vasilyeva/status/1481909316865118209?s=20/retweets" class="retweets"><span class="rt-count">90</span>Retweets</span></div></div></a></div><p><strong>Kofman talk</strong></p><p>If you are struggling to make sense of the Ukraine-Russia standoff and have the time, DO watch this fantastic presentation and Q&A session with the formidable Michael Kofman hosted at the Freeman Spogli Institute <a href="https://cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/events/russian-military-threat-ukraine-how-serious">Stanford</a>. Everyone should follow Michael Kofman (h/t Grey Anderson)</p><div id="youtube2-gwrzophpNJA" class="youtube-wrap" data-attrs="{"videoId":"gwrzophpNJA","startTime":null,"endTime":null}" data-component-name="Youtube2ToDOM"><div class="youtube-inner"><iframe src="https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/gwrzophpNJA?rel=0&autoplay=0&showinfo=0&enablejsapi=0" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" gesture="media" allow="autoplay; fullscreen" allowautoplay="true" allowfullscreen="true" width="728" height="409"></iframe></div></div><p>This was a fantastically rich talk. My take aways in brief. </p><p>The most likely military scenario (of several) is some kind of repeat of the 2008 punitive action v. Georgia. Can Russia do this? Yes. Immediately? No. Within the next month? Yes. The tells? Track the logistics units and forward deployment of aviation. </p><p>Q: What do the Russians want? A: It was us that broached the question. We asked what kind of strategic deal would stabilize the situation with Russia such that the US can focus on China. Russia is giving us their answer. We don’t like it, but the answer is loud and clear. </p><p>Q: What do they get out of it? A: Well, give them credit, for several months now they have pivoted the entire global conversation and set the terms. </p><p>As McFaul says here:</p><div data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM" class="tweet" data-attrs="{"url":"https://twitter.com/McFaul/status/1481884007532937218?s=20","full_text":"“Everybody’s talking about NATO expansion,” Mr. McFaul said on a podcast by the Center for a New American Security that was released on Tuesday. “Suddenly, we’re debating this issue that wasn’t even an issue. That’s a great advantage to him.”\n","username":"McFaul","name":"Michael McFaul","date":"Fri Jan 14 07:00:54 +0000 2022","photos":[],"quoted_tweet":{},"retweet_count":39,"like_count":112,"expanded_url":{"url":"https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/13/us/politics/nato-ukraine.html?smid=tw-share","image":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/03e116e0-5b47-43f4-a587-190a15d0fa25_1050x549.jpeg","title":"NATO Won’t Let Ukraine Join Soon. Here’s Why.","description":"Ukraine, with Russian troops on its borders, is pressing for membership. But President Biden and European leaders are not ready for that step.","domain":"nytimes.com"},"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":true}"><a class="tweet-link-top" href="https://twitter.com/McFaul/status/1481884007532937218?s=20" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-header"><img class="tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/McFaul.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @McFaul" loading="lazy"><div class="tweet-header-text"><span class="tweet-author-name">Michael McFaul </span><span class="tweet-author-handle">@McFaul</span></div></div><div class="tweet-text">“Everybody’s talking about NATO expansion,” Mr. McFaul said on a podcast by the Center for a New American Security that was released on Tuesday. “Suddenly, we’re debating this issue that wasn’t even an issue. That’s a great advantage to him.”
</div><a class="expanded-link" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/13/us/politics/nato-ukraine.html?smid=tw-share" target="_blank"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/03e116e0-5b47-43f4-a587-190a15d0fa25_1050x549.jpeg" class="expanded-link-img" loading="lazy"><div class="expanded-link-bottom"><span class="expanded-link-domain">nytimes.com</span><span class="expanded-link-title">NATO Won’t Let Ukraine Join Soon. Here’s Why.</span><span class="expanded-link-description">Ukraine, with Russian troops on its borders, is pressing for membership. But President Biden and European leaders are not ready for that step.</span></div></a></a><a class="tweet-link-bottom" href="https://twitter.com/McFaul/status/1481884007532937218?s=20" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-footer"><span class="tweet-date">7:00 AM ∙ Jan 14, 2022</span><hr><div class="tweet-ufi"><span href="https://twitter.com/McFaul/status/1481884007532937218?s=20/likes" class="likes"><span class="like-count">112</span>Likes</span><span href="https://twitter.com/McFaul/status/1481884007532937218?s=20/retweets" class="retweets"><span class="rt-count">39</span>Retweets</span></div></div></a></div><p><strong>Do Ukrainians actually want to join NATO?</strong></p><div data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM" class="tweet" data-attrs="{"url":"https://twitter.com/oonuch/status/1481582995429601281?s=20","full_text":"We (<span class=\"tweet-fake-link\">@GwendolynSasse</span> &amp; I) don't normally post random graphs with our <span class=\"tweet-fake-link\">@MOBILISEproject</span> / <span class=\"tweet-fake-link\">@IBIFUkraine</span> data. But statements that a majority of Ukrainians don't support NATO membership are outdated &amp; don't convey a trending shift towards support for joining <span class=\"tweet-fake-link\">@NATO</span> here is one graph. ","username":"oonuch","name":"Dr. Olga Onuch","date":"Thu Jan 13 11:04:47 +0000 2022","photos":[{"img_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/media/FI-dysOXIAQtUXE.png","link_url":"https://t.co/4JQ6YtBU1b","alt_text":null}],"quoted_tweet":{},"retweet_count":22,"like_count":50,"expanded_url":{},"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":true}"><a class="tweet-link-top" href="https://twitter.com/oonuch/status/1481582995429601281?s=20" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-header"><img class="tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/oonuch.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @oonuch" loading="lazy"><div class="tweet-header-text"><span class="tweet-author-name">Dr. Olga Onuch </span><span class="tweet-author-handle">@oonuch</span></div></div><div class="tweet-text">We (<span class="tweet-fake-link">@GwendolynSasse</span> & I) don't normally post random graphs with our <span class="tweet-fake-link">@MOBILISEproject</span> / <span class="tweet-fake-link">@IBIFUkraine</span> data. But statements that a majority of Ukrainians don't support NATO membership are outdated & don't convey a trending shift towards support for joining <span class="tweet-fake-link">@NATO</span> here is one graph. </div><div class="tweet-photos-container one"><div class="tweet-photo-wrapper "><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!e0XQ!,w_600,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FFI-dysOXIAQtUXE.png"><img class="tweet-photo" src="https://pbs.substack.com/media/FI-dysOXIAQtUXE.png" alt="Image" loading="lazy"></picture></div></div></a><a class="tweet-link-bottom" href="https://twitter.com/oonuch/status/1481582995429601281?s=20" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-footer"><span class="tweet-date">11:04 AM ∙ Jan 13, 2022</span><hr><div class="tweet-ufi"><span href="https://twitter.com/oonuch/status/1481582995429601281?s=20/likes" class="likes"><span class="like-count">50</span>Likes</span><span href="https://twitter.com/oonuch/status/1481582995429601281?s=20/retweets" class="retweets"><span class="rt-count">22</span>Retweets</span></div></div></a></div><p><strong>Military options</strong></p><div data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM" class="tweet" data-attrs="{"url":"https://twitter.com/RolandOliphant/status/1481969919541620739?s=20","full_text":"Big arm-chair-general read on possible Russian war plans in Ukraine, featuring great insights from <span class=\"tweet-fake-link\">@KofmanMichael</span> <span class=\"tweet-fake-link\">@RALee85</span> <span class=\"tweet-fake-link\">@Orysiaua</span> <span class=\"tweet-fake-link\">@Justin_Br0nk</span>. All ludicrous speculation/unforced errors/simplifications mine, not theirs. ","username":"RolandOliphant","name":"Roland Oliphant","date":"Fri Jan 14 12:42:17 +0000 2022","photos":[],"quoted_tweet":{},"retweet_count":18,"like_count":40,"expanded_url":{"url":"https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/01/14/does-russia-really-want-ukraine-putins-troops-could-get/?utm_content=world%20news&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1642160186-1","image":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/fd7d8dc7-e244-4b69-a636-e66d09aa8033_1024x536.jpeg","title":"From ‘peacekeepers’ to a full-scale offensive: Vladimir Putin’s five options for the invasion of Ukraine","description":"As talks with Russia fail, Putin will be browsing the menu for an advance on Ukraine - and the West is helpless","domain":"telegraph.co.uk"},"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":true}"><a class="tweet-link-top" href="https://twitter.com/RolandOliphant/status/1481969919541620739?s=20" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-header"><img class="tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/RolandOliphant.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @RolandOliphant" loading="lazy"><div class="tweet-header-text"><span class="tweet-author-name">Roland Oliphant </span><span class="tweet-author-handle">@RolandOliphant</span></div></div><div class="tweet-text">Big arm-chair-general read on possible Russian war plans in Ukraine, featuring great insights from <span class="tweet-fake-link">@KofmanMichael</span> <span class="tweet-fake-link">@RALee85</span> <span class="tweet-fake-link">@Orysiaua</span> <span class="tweet-fake-link">@Justin_Br0nk</span>. All ludicrous speculation/unforced errors/simplifications mine, not theirs. </div><a class="expanded-link" href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/01/14/does-russia-really-want-ukraine-putins-troops-could-get/?utm_content=world%20news&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1642160186-1" target="_blank"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/fd7d8dc7-e244-4b69-a636-e66d09aa8033_1024x536.jpeg" class="expanded-link-img" loading="lazy"><div class="expanded-link-bottom"><span class="expanded-link-domain">telegraph.co.uk</span><span class="expanded-link-title">From ‘peacekeepers’ to a full-scale offensive: Vladimir Putin’s five options for the invasion of Ukraine</span><span class="expanded-link-description">As talks with Russia fail, Putin will be browsing the menu for an advance on Ukraine - and the West is helpless</span></div></a></a><a class="tweet-link-bottom" href="https://twitter.com/RolandOliphant/status/1481969919541620739?s=20" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-footer"><span class="tweet-date">12:42 PM ∙ Jan 14, 2022</span><hr><div class="tweet-ufi"><span href="https://twitter.com/RolandOliphant/status/1481969919541620739?s=20/likes" class="likes"><span class="like-count">40</span>Likes</span><span href="https://twitter.com/RolandOliphant/status/1481969919541620739?s=20/retweets" class="retweets"><span class="rt-count">18</span>Retweets</span></div></div></a></div><p><strong>“Putin is preparing for war”</strong></p><p>Timothy Ash the noted EM markets expert has this <a href="https://kyivindependent.com/opinion/timothy-ash-putin-is-preparing-for-war/">alarming take</a> in the Kyiv Independent. </p><p><strong>Sanctions from hell list</strong></p><p>What would happen if Russia went in? Dr Maria Shagina has this quick take on the maximalist sanctions package that Congressional hawks are preparing. </p><div data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM" class="tweet" data-attrs="{"url":"https://twitter.com/maria_shagina/status/1481356364580626432","full_text":"US Senators published the new “sanctions from hell” edition in the event if Russia escalates in Ukraine. It’s a broader version of Menendez’ “cascade of sanctions” 🧵\n<a class=\"tweet-url\" href=\"https://www.foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Protecting%20Ukraine%20Sovereignty%20Act%20of%202022.pdf\">foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/…</a>","username":"maria_shagina","name":"Dr Maria Shagina","date":"Wed Jan 12 20:04:14 +0000 2022","photos":[],"quoted_tweet":{},"retweet_count":73,"like_count":138,"expanded_url":{"url":"https://www.foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Protecting%20Ukraine%20Sovereignty%20Act%20of%202022.pdf","title":null,"description":null,"domain":"foreign.senate.gov"},"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":true}"><a class="tweet-link-top" href="https://twitter.com/maria_shagina/status/1481356364580626432" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-header"><img class="tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/maria_shagina.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @maria_shagina" loading="lazy"><div class="tweet-header-text"><span class="tweet-author-name">Dr Maria Shagina </span><span class="tweet-author-handle">@maria_shagina</span></div></div><div class="tweet-text">US Senators published the new “sanctions from hell” edition in the event if Russia escalates in Ukraine. It’s a broader version of Menendez’ “cascade of sanctions” 🧵
<a class="tweet-url" href="https://www.foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Protecting%20Ukraine%20Sovereignty%20Act%20of%202022.pdf" target="_blank">foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/…</a></div></a><a class="tweet-link-bottom" href="https://twitter.com/maria_shagina/status/1481356364580626432" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-footer"><span class="tweet-date">8:04 PM ∙ Jan 12, 2022</span><hr><div class="tweet-ufi"><span href="https://twitter.com/maria_shagina/status/1481356364580626432/likes" class="likes"><span class="like-count">138</span>Likes</span><span href="https://twitter.com/maria_shagina/status/1481356364580626432/retweets" class="retweets"><span class="rt-count">73</span>Retweets</span></div></div></a></div><p>Potential consequences for Russian economy and thus also for Europe are pretty staggering.</p><p><strong>The markets in Russia</strong> …</p><p>.. are not liking it. </p><div data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM" class="tweet" data-attrs="{"url":"https://twitter.com/AlexKokcharov/status/1481993486379409409?s=20","full_text":"<span class=\"tweet-fake-link\">@JakeCordell</span> $40 billion in market value destroyed in 2 days on concerns of war risks affecting Russia. \n\n","username":"AlexKokcharov","name":"Alex Kokcharov","date":"Fri Jan 14 14:15:55 +0000 2022","photos":[],"quoted_tweet":{},"retweet_count":3,"like_count":9,"expanded_url":{"url":"https://www.finanz.ru/novosti/aktsii/mertvy-krest-ugroza-voyny-obrushila-stoimost-rossiyskikh-kompaniy-na-$40-mlrd-za-dva-dnya-1031103021","image":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/72bb55a7-bb41-4e31-af03-c74ae35b9504_260x120.jpeg","title":"«Мертвый крест»: Угроза войны обрушила стоимость российских компаний на $40 млрд за два дня","description":"Российский рынок сыпется второй день подряд. На бирже не осталось ни одной растущей акции.","domain":"finanz.ru"},"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":true}"><a class="tweet-link-top" href="https://twitter.com/AlexKokcharov/status/1481993486379409409?s=20" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-header"><img class="tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/AlexKokcharov.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @AlexKokcharov" loading="lazy"><div class="tweet-header-text"><span class="tweet-author-name">Alex Kokcharov </span><span class="tweet-author-handle">@AlexKokcharov</span></div></div><div class="tweet-text"><span class="tweet-fake-link">@JakeCordell</span> $40 billion in market value destroyed in 2 days on concerns of war risks affecting Russia.
</div><a class="expanded-link" href="https://www.finanz.ru/novosti/aktsii/mertvy-krest-ugroza-voyny-obrushila-stoimost-rossiyskikh-kompaniy-na-$40-mlrd-za-dva-dnya-1031103021" target="_blank"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/72bb55a7-bb41-4e31-af03-c74ae35b9504_260x120.jpeg" class="expanded-link-img" loading="lazy"><div class="expanded-link-bottom"><span class="expanded-link-domain">finanz.ru</span><span class="expanded-link-title">«Мертвый крест»: Угроза войны обрушила стоимость российских компаний на $40 млрд за два дня</span><span class="expanded-link-description">Российский рынок сыпется второй день подряд. На бирже не осталось ни одной растущей акции.</span></div></a></a><a class="tweet-link-bottom" href="https://twitter.com/AlexKokcharov/status/1481993486379409409?s=20" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-footer"><span class="tweet-date">2:15 PM ∙ Jan 14, 2022</span><hr><div class="tweet-ufi"><span href="https://twitter.com/AlexKokcharov/status/1481993486379409409?s=20/likes" class="likes"><span class="like-count">9</span>Likes</span><span href="https://twitter.com/AlexKokcharov/status/1481993486379409409?s=20/retweets" class="retweets"><span class="rt-count">3</span>Retweets</span></div></div></a></div><p><strong>What about the EU?</strong> </p><p>Well, what about the EU? Asks the <em>FT</em>. They should get their act together or butt out. A notably tough <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/36f0d1a8-1539-4f13-8b50-e0d963f9c2b3?shareType=nongift">FT editorial</a>. </p><p><strong>Russia → Lithuania → US → China → EU</strong></p><p>On why it might be difficult for the EU to concert its approach, check out the latest <a href="https://www.gmfus.org/news/watching-china-europe-january-2022">newsletter from Noah Barkin</a>. A real must read.</p><p>Barkin ties together the Baltic, Russia, the US, China and EU.</p><p>Lithuania’s clash with China has been making the headlines and is threatening to draw the rest of the EU in. Apparently, folks in Berlin are convinced that the Lithuanian government (not its President) courted controversy with China as a way of demonstrating loyalty to the US and thus holding the US behind the Baltic in the confrontation with Russia. </p><blockquote><p>There is a widespread suspicion in Berlin—though no proof to back it up—that the United States helped trigger this crisis by pushing Lithuania to green-light the opening of a representative office in Vilnius that carries the name Taiwan. Some European diplomats have noted that Lithuania asked the United States to watch over its diplomatic complex in Beijing after <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/587cff8f-3a7f-45c3-b4c7-8ac6f3e0aa9c">withdrawing its embassy staff</a> in late December. “This is not about China. It’s about the US and Russia,” one German diplomat told me. “The Eastern Europeans are seriously concerned about America’s commitment to the region and China is the chip to play.”</p></blockquote><p>Barkin is also great on the reversion in Berlin towards the Merkel line on China. Are there tensions with the US ahead? </p><p><strong>Russia, Gas and China </strong></p><p>Meanwhile, on the Sino-Russian front there is a great opportunity for deal-making.</p><div data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM" class="tweet" data-attrs="{"url":"https://twitter.com/BaleseneO/status/1481525190429446145","full_text":"Novatek Inks Two More Supply Deals for Arctic LNG 2 Offtake with Chinese companies, 11 and 15 years LTCs\n<span class=\"tweet-fake-link\">@NGInews</span> \nPicture from <span class=\"tweet-fake-link\">@TotalEnergies</span> ","username":"BaleseneO","name":"Balesene OU","date":"Thu Jan 13 07:15:05 +0000 2022","photos":[{"img_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/media/FI9urSAXsAMBLYe.jpg","link_url":"https://t.co/BKgXP2s4rH","alt_text":null}],"quoted_tweet":{},"retweet_count":6,"like_count":12,"expanded_url":{},"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":true}"><a class="tweet-link-top" href="https://twitter.com/BaleseneO/status/1481525190429446145" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-header"><img class="tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/BaleseneO.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @BaleseneO" loading="lazy"><div class="tweet-header-text"><span class="tweet-author-name">Balesene OU </span><span class="tweet-author-handle">@BaleseneO</span></div></div><div class="tweet-text">Novatek Inks Two More Supply Deals for Arctic LNG 2 Offtake with Chinese companies, 11 and 15 years LTCs
<span class="tweet-fake-link">@NGInews</span>
Picture from <span class="tweet-fake-link">@TotalEnergies</span> </div><div class="tweet-photos-container one"><div class="tweet-photo-wrapper "><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!OvLM!,w_600,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FFI9urSAXsAMBLYe.jpg"><img class="tweet-photo" src="https://pbs.substack.com/media/FI9urSAXsAMBLYe.jpg" alt="Image" loading="lazy"></picture></div></div></a><a class="tweet-link-bottom" href="https://twitter.com/BaleseneO/status/1481525190429446145" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-footer"><span class="tweet-date">7:15 AM ∙ Jan 13, 2022</span><hr><div class="tweet-ufi"><span href="https://twitter.com/BaleseneO/status/1481525190429446145/likes" class="likes"><span class="like-count">12</span>Likes</span><span href="https://twitter.com/BaleseneO/status/1481525190429446145/retweets" class="retweets"><span class="rt-count">6</span>Retweets</span></div></div></a></div><p><strong>And how will Central Asia swing?</strong></p><p>From a friendly correspondent: </p><blockquote><p>Watching Kazakhstan. I know, it is not easy without Russian sources, and then just a select few who could overcome the rhetoric of 'popular democratic revolution' or 'foreign terrorist infiltration' and 'Sosite conspiracy'. Kazakhstan suddenly could prove a game changer in geopolitics and in economic policy as well. The ODCB troops are already leaving, Putin congratulating them on the mission accomplished (with obvious connotations in the West, of course.) The newly empowered president Tokaev, already 68, must hurry to create his legacy which he promisingly expressed in one word: de-oligarchication. In his parliament speech on Jan. 11 he mentioned Nazarbaev just once — as the creator of market system that allowed the emergence of commodity monopolies and private fortunes considered very big even by world standards.</p><p>The question is now, is Nazarbaev alive? Or, as rumored, in China at the Hainan island villa? </p></blockquote><p><strong>Eurasian Economic Union </strong></p><p>In the latest <a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/how-would-sanctions-work-against-russia-over-ukraine/id1584397047?i=1000547874726">Ones and Tooze podcast</a>, Cameron and I discuss Russia’s economic sphere of influence. </p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{"url":"https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe now","action":null,"class":null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p><strong>Uzbekistan</strong></p><p>One of the things I learned doing research for Ones and Tooze, is the pivotal importance of Uzbekistan in Central Asia. At 34 million, Uzbekistan has twice the population of Kazakhstan. It accounts for half the entire population of Central Asia. And to Russia’s frustration it is havering over joining the Eurasian Economic Union. </p><p>See this interesting report by <a href="https://thediplomat.com/authors/umida-hashimova/">Umida Hashimova</a> in <em><a href="https://thediplomat.com/2021/11/uzbekistan-still-contemplating-eurasian-economic-union-membership/">The Diplomat</a></em>.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!o69P!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9109f455-ac47-4d2a-b6fd-a833dadd1f9c_916x564.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!o69P!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9109f455-ac47-4d2a-b6fd-a833dadd1f9c_916x564.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!o69P!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9109f455-ac47-4d2a-b6fd-a833dadd1f9c_916x564.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!o69P!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9109f455-ac47-4d2a-b6fd-a833dadd1f9c_916x564.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!o69P!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9109f455-ac47-4d2a-b6fd-a833dadd1f9c_916x564.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/9109f455-ac47-4d2a-b6fd-a833dadd1f9c_916x564.png" width="916" height="564" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/9109f455-ac47-4d2a-b6fd-a833dadd1f9c_916x564.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":564,"width":916,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":778384,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!o69P!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9109f455-ac47-4d2a-b6fd-a833dadd1f9c_916x564.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!o69P!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9109f455-ac47-4d2a-b6fd-a833dadd1f9c_916x564.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!o69P!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9109f455-ac47-4d2a-b6fd-a833dadd1f9c_916x564.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!o69P!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9109f455-ac47-4d2a-b6fd-a833dadd1f9c_916x564.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p><strong>The toxic legacy of the Soviet military industrial complex</strong></p><p>lies heavily all across Central Asia. </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qtRu!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1a069920-060b-4747-80f2-0e0579e1c632_928x918.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qtRu!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1a069920-060b-4747-80f2-0e0579e1c632_928x918.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qtRu!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1a069920-060b-4747-80f2-0e0579e1c632_928x918.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qtRu!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1a069920-060b-4747-80f2-0e0579e1c632_928x918.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qtRu!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1a069920-060b-4747-80f2-0e0579e1c632_928x918.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/1a069920-060b-4747-80f2-0e0579e1c632_928x918.png" width="928" height="918" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/1a069920-060b-4747-80f2-0e0579e1c632_928x918.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":918,"width":928,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":1207960,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qtRu!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1a069920-060b-4747-80f2-0e0579e1c632_928x918.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qtRu!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1a069920-060b-4747-80f2-0e0579e1c632_928x918.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qtRu!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1a069920-060b-4747-80f2-0e0579e1c632_928x918.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qtRu!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1a069920-060b-4747-80f2-0e0579e1c632_928x918.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source: <a href="https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/briefing_note/join/2013/522303/EXPO-INTA_SP%282013%29522303_EN.pdf">European Parliament </a></p><p><strong>Who to follow?</strong></p><p>Amongst Moscow-based observers of the Russian scene, three names always come up. </p><p>Dmitri Trenin, <a href="https://carnegieendowment.org/experts/287">Carnegie Russia</a> @DmitriTrenin </p><p>Andrey Kortunov, Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council, See website <a href="https://russiancouncil.ru/en/andrey-kortunov/">Russia Counci</a>l </p><p>Fyodor Lukyanov <em><a href="https://eng.globalaffairs.ru/analytics/editors-column/">Russia in Global Affairs </a></em><a href="https://eng.globalaffairs.ru/analytics/editors-column/">Editor-in-Chief</a>;</p><div data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM" class="tweet" data-attrs="{"url":"https://twitter.com/seansrussiablog/status/1216752309213859845?s=20","full_text":"ICYM my interview with Fyodor Lukyanov on Russian foreign policy thinking vis-a-vis Ukraine, West, the Middle East. A must listen to understand Moscow's logic. ","username":"seansrussiablog","name":"Sean Guillory","date":"Mon Jan 13 16:02:11 +0000 2020","photos":[],"quoted_tweet":{},"retweet_count":32,"like_count":87,"expanded_url":{"url":"https://srbpodcast.org/2020/01/07/russia-in-global-affairs/","image":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/5ee369aa-d200-4295-b69a-0423e58eebcc_609x343.jpeg","title":"Russia in Global Affairs - SRB Podcast","description":"Guest: Fyodor Lukyanov on Russia in the Middle East: Viewpoints, Policies, Strategies published by East View.","domain":"srbpodcast.org"},"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":true}"><a class="tweet-link-top" href="https://twitter.com/seansrussiablog/status/1216752309213859845?s=20" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-header"><img class="tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/seansrussiablog.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @seansrussiablog" loading="lazy"><div class="tweet-header-text"><span class="tweet-author-name">Sean Guillory </span><span class="tweet-author-handle">@seansrussiablog</span></div></div><div class="tweet-text">ICYM my interview with Fyodor Lukyanov on Russian foreign policy thinking vis-a-vis Ukraine, West, the Middle East. A must listen to understand Moscow's logic. </div><a class="expanded-link" href="https://srbpodcast.org/2020/01/07/russia-in-global-affairs/" target="_blank"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/5ee369aa-d200-4295-b69a-0423e58eebcc_609x343.jpeg" class="expanded-link-img" loading="lazy"><div class="expanded-link-bottom"><span class="expanded-link-domain">srbpodcast.org</span><span class="expanded-link-title">Russia in Global Affairs - SRB Podcast</span><span class="expanded-link-description">Guest: Fyodor Lukyanov on Russia in the Middle East: Viewpoints, Policies, Strategies published by East View.</span></div></a></a><a class="tweet-link-bottom" href="https://twitter.com/seansrussiablog/status/1216752309213859845?s=20" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-footer"><span class="tweet-date">4:02 PM ∙ Jan 13, 2020</span><hr><div class="tweet-ufi"><span href="https://twitter.com/seansrussiablog/status/1216752309213859845?s=20/likes" class="likes"><span class="like-count">87</span>Likes</span><span href="https://twitter.com/seansrussiablog/status/1216752309213859845?s=20/retweets" class="retweets"><span class="rt-count">32</span>Retweets</span></div></div></a></div><p><strong>A Different World</strong> </p><div data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM" class="tweet" data-attrs="{"url":"https://twitter.com/bucephalus424/status/1472648932173955074","full_text":"Kind of funny that for a brief moment in the early 1960s both the US and the USSR were led by men who had grown up dirt poor without electricity and indoor plumbing and who in their middle aged leadership embraced ambitious developmentalism ","username":"bucephalus424","name":"Mathias","date":"Sun Dec 19 19:24:00 +0000 2021","photos":[{"img_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/media/FG_mZZDXsAIxiFA.jpg","link_url":"https://t.co/J4mja9cbBD","alt_text":null},{"img_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/media/FG_mZk-XwAcjyAO.jpg","link_url":"https://t.co/J4mja9cbBD","alt_text":null}],"quoted_tweet":{},"retweet_count":51,"like_count":297,"expanded_url":{},"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":true}"><a class="tweet-link-top" href="https://twitter.com/bucephalus424/status/1472648932173955074" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-header"><img class="tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/bucephalus424.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @bucephalus424" loading="lazy"><div class="tweet-header-text"><span class="tweet-author-name">Mathias </span><span class="tweet-author-handle">@bucephalus424</span></div></div><div class="tweet-text">Kind of funny that for a brief moment in the early 1960s both the US and the USSR were led by men who had grown up dirt poor without electricity and indoor plumbing and who in their middle aged leadership embraced ambitious developmentalism </div><div class="tweet-photos-container two"><div class="tweet-photos-column"><div class="tweet-photo-wrapper "><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IgRv!,w_600,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FFG_mZZDXsAIxiFA.jpg"><img class="tweet-photo" src="https://pbs.substack.com/media/FG_mZZDXsAIxiFA.jpg" alt="Image" loading="lazy"></picture></div></div><div class="tweet-photos-column"><div class="tweet-photo-wrapper "><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ZbN4!,w_600,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FFG_mZk-XwAcjyAO.jpg"><img class="tweet-photo" src="https://pbs.substack.com/media/FG_mZk-XwAcjyAO.jpg" alt="Image" loading="lazy"></picture></div></div></div></a><a class="tweet-link-bottom" href="https://twitter.com/bucephalus424/status/1472648932173955074" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-footer"><span class="tweet-date">7:24 PM ∙ Dec 19, 2021</span><hr><div class="tweet-ufi"><span href="https://twitter.com/bucephalus424/status/1472648932173955074/likes" class="likes"><span class="like-count">297</span>Likes</span><span href="https://twitter.com/bucephalus424/status/1472648932173955074/retweets" class="retweets"><span class="rt-count">51</span>Retweets</span></div></div></a></div><p>***</p><p>I love putting together Chartbook. I am delighted it goes out free to thousands of subscribers all over the world. But it takes a lot of work. If you like what you are reading and feel you can support the effort, please pick one of the subscription offers here:</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{"url":"https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe now","action":null,"class":null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p> </p><p></p><!--
{
"post_id": "47146096.chartbook-70-draghi-for-president",
"post_date": "2022-01-16T17:03:10.204Z",
"is_published": true,
"email_sent_at": "2022-01-16T17:03:10.375Z",
"inbox_sent_at": "2022-01-16T17:03:10.375Z",
"type": "newsletter",
"audience": "everyone",
"title": "Chartbook #70 Draghi for President?",
"subtitle": "Exploring Italy's material constitution. "
}
-->
<p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{"url":"https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe now","action":null,"class":null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p>Last week I did a new piece on the current political situation in Italy for <em><a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/01/14/mario-draghi-italy-presidency-europe/">Foreign Policy</a></em>. Will Mario Draghi make a bid to take the office of Italian President? If so what would be the implications for Italy and for Europe? </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!OIGr!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff9e89a6b-ad89-4062-bb1f-dbd4de4cb762_1050x800.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!OIGr!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff9e89a6b-ad89-4062-bb1f-dbd4de4cb762_1050x800.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!OIGr!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff9e89a6b-ad89-4062-bb1f-dbd4de4cb762_1050x800.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!OIGr!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff9e89a6b-ad89-4062-bb1f-dbd4de4cb762_1050x800.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!OIGr!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff9e89a6b-ad89-4062-bb1f-dbd4de4cb762_1050x800.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f9e89a6b-ad89-4062-bb1f-dbd4de4cb762_1050x800.png" width="1050" height="800" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f9e89a6b-ad89-4062-bb1f-dbd4de4cb762_1050x800.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":800,"width":1050,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":1235295,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":false,"topImage":true,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!OIGr!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff9e89a6b-ad89-4062-bb1f-dbd4de4cb762_1050x800.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!OIGr!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff9e89a6b-ad89-4062-bb1f-dbd4de4cb762_1050x800.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!OIGr!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff9e89a6b-ad89-4062-bb1f-dbd4de4cb762_1050x800.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!OIGr!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff9e89a6b-ad89-4062-bb1f-dbd4de4cb762_1050x800.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>It is an update to the piece I did for <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/04/01/janet-yellen-mario-draghi-italy-united-states-technocrats-capitalist-democracy/">FP a year ago, comparing Yellen and Draghi</a>’s roles as managers of the modern economy.</p><p>There is always a good reason to come back to Italy. The most important one, that should never go unmentioned, is that Italy is lovely. Plus, thanks to Dana I get to spend time there. The more academic and political reason is that Italy is pivotal to the future of the Eurozone. </p><p><a href="https://countryeconomy.com/national-debt">Italy’s $2.9 trillion in debts </a>are the critical issue. How Italy and Europe manage that pile of obligations, raises important questions in the relationship between politics and economics in Europe and in capitalist democracies in general. </p><p>Since the late 19th century Italy has been one of the laboratories for working out the tense relationship between capitalism and democracy. Not for nothing it has generated a fascinating tradition of thinking about political theory, jurisprudence and political economy. Italy was an important part of the narrative of the crisis of liberalism in the early 20th century that I developed in my book <em>Deluge</em>. The collapse of liberal crisis-management into fascism in 1922 should haunt us all. This year, as my colleague Angelo Caglioti recently reminded me, is the centenary of Mussolini’s March on Rome. </p><p>In the wake of the disastrous world war, after two decades of rapid postwar growth, from the late 1960s to 1992 Italy underwent a convulsive upheaval in its political economy, the echoes of which are still with us today. The senior figures on the current Italian political scene - most notably Mario Draghi, President Sergio Mattarella and Silvio Berlusconi - are veterans of that era. If in the US, economic policy discourse still could be said to revolve around the consequences of the Volcker shock of 1979, in Italy politics still refers to the crisis of 1992. In that extraordinary year a corruption crisis swept away much of the old political class, a financial crisis rocked the Italian state, and the centrist elite (including Draghi and Mattarella) committed itself to tying Italy to the Franco-German vision of the EU organized around a common currency.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{"url":"https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe now","action":null,"class":null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p>I don’t, in this issue of the newsletter, want to put economic analysis at the center. But we would not be having this conversation if Italy’s growth had met the expectations of the centrists who made their wager on the euro from the 1990s onwards. Instead, and it cannot be repeated too often, Italy’s GDP per capita has stagnated in a dramatic fashion.</p><p>Unsurprisingly perhaps, governing a society experiencing this kind of stagnation under democratic conditions is not easy. It leaves Italians, in public and private, looking for answers and ways out of the impasse. </p><p>How much growth does Italy really need? I don’t want to engage in the degrowth debate here. But Italy is also interesting from that aspect. By most reasonable criteria, despite this stagnation in gdp per capita, the standard of living in Italy for a large majority of the population is very attractive, enviable indeed. Behind a rawlsian veil of ignorance, would you pick a “success story” like the United States over Italy? But Italians compare themselves not with the US but with Germany and France. They combine the benefits of a welfare state and functioning community life with much higher growth. The sense of being left behind by others is painful. Italy’s corporations have lost ground in the global competitive race. And comparison with others aside, it is obvious that Italy could do so much better. There are very real deficits of an institutional kind, in technical modernization, not to mention the future problems of the climate, energy transition etc. What Italy needs is not brute-force growth at any price, but faster, “smart” growth, reform of institutions to improve everyday life, above all in the legal system and state administration, and a major investment in its education system, which currently fails far too many young Italians. </p><p>If Italy cannot achieve an acceleration in growth, what it faces is relative decline, bitter zero-sum domestic struggles over a fixed cake, the stunting of the life chances of entire cohorts of young people and, in the event that financial markets start to sell off Italy’s government deb, the very real possibility of an acute financial crisis. The <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/italy-faces-debt-doubts-again-ecb-dials-back-support-2021-12-22/">question of Italian spreads</a> relative to Bunds is already back on the European agenda. </p><p>This isn’t a matter of “economic laws” or “financial gravity”. If Italy had a sovereign national central bank, or if the ECB had a different mandate there would be little immediate reason for panic. Even with the current monetary constitution, the arrangement can be managed, if Rome acts and talks in a cooperative fashion, if there is a bit of creativity in the legal department of the ECB, if the other national governments play along and if Germany’s Constitutional Court bites its tongue. But that is a lot of “ifs” and $2.9 trillion is a lot of debt. </p><p>All this means that Italian politics demands our attention and it rewards that attention with a rich and fascinating debate (as thanks to google translate one can glimpse even without Italian). </p><p>How can Italy be steered through the rapids and set on a more positive course of development? Since this is a hard task for elected politicians, five times in recent decades the job of Prime Minister has been handed to a non-parliamentary figure. </p><p>The most recent parachutist is Mario Draghi, recently retired from the ECB. He took office in January 2021 to oversee the spending of the NextGen EU package. This allocates over 200 billion Euro to Italy in grants and credits. This, if you like, is Europe’s gamble on using investment to accelerate Italian growth. </p><p>After one year, the question has arisen of whether Mario Draghi should remain as Prime Minister for a limited term that expires in 2023 at the latest, or gamble on his elevation to the Presidency, which would keep him in power for seven more years. The selection process begins on January 24. I go into the political calculations in the <em>Foreign Policy</em> piece. For a timely review of the constitutional issues, see <a href="https://verfassungsblog.de/all-needs-to-stay-as-it-is-so-all-can-change/">Carlo Fusaro</a>’s piece here.</p><p>Those who favor a move by Draghi to the Presidency do so either on optimistic grounds (missions accomplished as PM) or, more commonly, on the pessimistic grounds that Italy needs a powerful, authoritative check on its disorderly and populist parliament. That is the scenario that I want to explore further here. </p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{"url":"https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe now","action":null,"class":null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p>The idea is that if Draghi were made President, in the event of a right-wing populist electoral breakthrough, he would have the authority to resist a government that embarked on an aggressive nationalist course that put Italy’s euro membership in doubt, thus risking a devastating sovereign debt crisis that through its entanglement with the Italian banking system would spill over into a banking crisis. For Europe this doom-loop is ominous. An Italian crisis was the nightmare that hung over Europe during the eurozone crisis of 2010-2012. Unlike Greece, Italy is both too big to fail and too big to bail. “Whatever it takes”, it must not be allowed to enter crisis. </p><p>Given the powers provided to the Italian President by the postwar constitution, Draghi could curb a dangerous government in various ways. He could veto legislation or particularly dangerous ministerial appointments. He can maneuver with the government’s enemies in parliament and, in the last instance, dismiss the Prime Minister and call new elections. None of this is science-fiction. These are the kind of tools that were deployed against Berlusconi in 2011 by then President Napolitano and more recently and relevantly by Mattarella against 5Star and the Northern League after their election victory in 2018. In particular, Mattarella intervened to veto the nomination of the euroskeptic economist Paolo Savona as Minister for the Economy by the League. When that stalled negotiations, Mattarella proposed the economist Carlo Cottarelli, ex of the IMF, as a safe pair of hands. Instead, the 5star came up with Conte, their own safe pair of hands. In 2019 Conte would form the pivot around which the government was reshuffled, the Lega bounced itself out and the “center left” DP was brought back into power. The DP and 5Star provide the mainstay of Draghi’s support today. </p><p>In 2018 Dana and I were in Italy and I did a <a href="https://adamtooze.com/2018/05/29/european-political-economy-italys-elite-chooses-a-strategy-of-tension/">blogpost</a> on the events in real time. Blast from the past! </p><p>How should one interpret this Presidential intervention in 2018 and what implications might it have for a future Draghi Presidency? </p><p>In researching the latest article for <em>FP</em> I was excited to (re)discover the very interesting constitutional theory debates that unfolded in 2018 on the pages of the indispensable <a href="https://verfassungsblog.de/">Verfassungsblog</a> - some in German but much in English and it is really great - around the Presidential intervention and what it meant. It is worth emphasizing that the 2018 situation was dramatic. Bond markets were seriously worried. We are very far from that situation today. But 2018 is the closest thing we have to an experiment of the Draghi scenario envisioned for the future.</p><p>Was President Mattarella’s intervention legal and legitimate? What does it mean for European constitutionalism? How might one imagine this spinning forward in 2022 and beyond with Draghi as president?</p><p>The debate in 2018 was fierce. The leader of the Five Star Movement, called for President Mattarella to be impeached under Article 90 of the Italian Constitution, for «high treason or violation of the Constitution. Clearly, if you engage in this kind of heavy-duty intervention you have to have a politician’s thick skin. There isn’t much in Draghi’s track record to tell us, one way or the other, whether that is part of his character. So far, the applause has been so universal that he has hardly been tested. </p><p>More substantively the critics alleged that Mattarella’s veto on Savona was a classic case of European financial imperatives curbing national democratic politics. In a phrase coined by the German constitutional judge and theorist Dieter Grimm, it was a case of over-constitutionalization. <a href="https://verfassungsblog.de/the-savona-affaire-overconstitutionalization-in-action/">Marco Dani and Agustin José Menendez</a> argued that </p><blockquote><p>“this episode is revealing of the democratic limits of the European constitutional architecture and institutional culture. Following <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/eulj.12139%255d,">Dieter Grimm</a>, we claim that the events here analysed reveal the extent to which the EU legal framework is overconstitutionalised and the democratic costs and risks inherent in this legal and political order.” </p></blockquote><p>In effect Mattarella was repressing debate in the name of unspoken constitutional principles that Italians could have any government they wanted except one that challenged the imperatives of eurozone membership. </p><p>As Dieter Grimm had observed about European law, </p><blockquote><p>as interpreted by the European Court of Justice and, we would add, as practiced in the context of the European economic government, ties with the golden fetters of the euro the hands of national governments, rendering hopeless the task of removing the obstacles to the realization of substantive equality, as required by the Italian (and other) constitutions. It seems to us that Mattarella’s decision only starts to make sense if one adds a fundamental piece to the constitutional equation, namely a form of “convention” (functionally equivalent to a constitutional convention) according to which political parties or coalitions that are critical of the existing economic and monetary arrangements within the Eurozone cannot get into government. Or, more accurately, they are entitled to govern in a tamed form … Such a convention could be said to be a renovated form of “<em>pactum ad excludendum</em>”, only this time it would not be the communists, but those daring to be critical of European economic govermment arrangements that would have to be prevented from holding power.</p></blockquote><p>This is a powerful critique, but it did not go unanswered. The defenders of the President argued that he was fully within his rights. The Italian constitution provides for the President to be an active force, not merely a tool of the Prime Ministers will. The constitution always foresaw precisely such action. Furthermore, one should not fall too easily for the rhetoric of popular or national sovereignty as opposed to elite-European rule. As <a href="https://verfassungsblog.de/author/massimo-fichera/">Massimo Fichera commented</a> Italy was playing out a (fictional dialectics): </p><blockquote><p>“The people” suggest a simple, quick way out of complexity. “The elite”, instead, appear aloof and untrustworthy. Democracy, according to this dialectics, can only be protected by pleasing the former – never mind that “the people” is often a smokescreen, hiding concrete plans and targets identified by concrete individuals. </p></blockquote><p>In 2018 the concrete individuals enacting the drama were all too evident, with Matteo Salvini of the League being seen as the main actor in the drama. And this was the nub of Mattarella’s action. As <a href="https://verfassungsblog.de/why-the-italian-presidents-decision-was-legitimate/">Diletta Tega and Michele Massa argued</a> in their defense of Mattarella, a key defense of the President’s position was that the appointment of an openly euroskeptic government would precipitate a crisis that would forestall a serious debate about Italy’s European options. </p><blockquote><p>participation in the Euro and the EU are fundamental choices and they must be given open and serious consideration, whereas they have not been at the forefront of the Italian political elections of March 2018.</p></blockquote><p>As President Mattarella stated in justifying his decision to block Savona, </p><blockquote><p>“The decision of joining the Euro is of key importance for the prospects of our Country and of our youth: if we want to discuss it, we have to do so openly and after a serious in-depth analysis. Also because it is an issue that was not brought up during our recent election campaign”. </p></blockquote><p>According to his defenders, Mattarella did not deny the possibility of exiting the eurozone or flaunting its formal rules and the cooperative tissue that holds it together. But it was important to be clear about the gravity of the choice. The pressures generated by eurozone membership are due to deep and real entanglements. Nor is Italy’s entanglement a matter of fate. It cannot be blamed on anonymous forces like globalization. It was chosen. Now the logic of European integration is working itself out. As <a href="https://verfassungsblog.de/the-italian-president-and-the-security-of-the-european-project/">Fichera argued in a second blog post</a> this has always had a compulsive logic based around the threat of crisis and the promise of security. </p><blockquote><p>the reasons behind Mattarella’s decision are deeply linked with the “security of the European project”, a rationale which has been a constant feature of European integration. …. the President’s intervention is in line with the constant trend of the material constitution towards an ever-stronger role of the Head of State. …. </p></blockquote><p>Casting off, or promising to cast off from this deeply entrenched security project is conceivable, but it will come at a huge costs and reverse a long-standing development of the practices of government. There is no denying, Fichera insists, the process that is underway. The critics of Mattarella’s choice </p><blockquote><p>… correctly emphasise(s) the worrying tension between freedom and coercion, which can be detected in EU constitutional law. Although the Italian crisis was a matter of domestic constitutional law, it inevitably affects the EU legal and political framework, because of the commitment towards the European project, which is enshrined in the Italian Constitution (Articles 11 and 117). As recently argued by some Italian scholars when commenting on the appointment of the Monti government (above all <a href="http://www.federalismi.it/nv14/articolo-documento.cfm?artid=19187">Antonio Ruggeri</a>), the persistent state of crisis might have modified some of the traditional theoretical categories employed to describe the “constitutional State”, to the extent that governments would now have to seek not only a formal vote of confidence from Parliament, but also an informal vote from the EU and the financial markets.</p></blockquote><blockquote><p>The tension between freedom and coercion is here particularly visible and is expressed by what I (Fichera) call <a href="https://www.e-elgar.com/shop/the-foundations-of-the-eu-as-a-polity">the “security of the European project”</a>, a meta-constitutional rationale which has been historically developing through discursive practices detectable both at the national and the EU level. As EU integration reaches a more advanced stage, its conflictual elements, which have been previously concealed, come to the surface- and, together with them, all the contradictions that affect the EU liberal model. Security is thus both the presupposition of, and a threat to, the project of European integration and such feature can be observed not only as regards the financial and economic crisis, but also in relation to the refugee crisis, the constitutional identity crisis, the rule of law crisis and Brexit.</p></blockquote><p>Fichera concluded by demanding more debate. </p><blockquote><p>Crisis and security are intertwined and mutually reinforced concepts. However, when crisis turns into a permanent condition and security becomes self-referential, the premises and foundations of a polity are themselves questioned. To be sure, precisely the contradictions and conflicts are an inherent feature of constitutionalism. They have been ignored for too long. It is now time to address them through an open and public debate, keeping in mind the risk of “over-constitutionalisation” both at the EU and at the domestic level.</p></blockquote><p>But, where would that debate go. What follows if we “address” the tensions and contradictions and what implications might this have for a new era under a Draghi Presidency? </p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{"url":"https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe now","action":null,"class":null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p>I take the drift of the apologists for Mattarella’s intervention to be one of realism. Let us recognize the scale and implication of our entanglement, including its compelling aspects. Let us not indulge in sovereigntist illusions. If you want to have a debate about leaving the euro, do so openly and face the full consequences. You will almost certainly conclude, as Syriza did that the risks are too high. Indeed, you may find that open debate itself is expensive. The markets don’t appreciate it. But that does not imply passive acceptance of the status quo. Certainly not after the shock of 2020. </p><p>On Draghi’s watch a raft of <a href="https://cpb-us-w2.wpmucdn.com/voices.uchicago.edu/dist/6/2265/files/2019/04/Reform_SGP-final-draft.pdf">new proposals</a> are already emerging as to modifications of the Stability and Growth Pact. Draghi has struck up a relationship with Macron to push for a fiscal settlement that enables investment to go ahead. It remains to be seen whether the Germans will bite. Rather than digging into technical details I want to continue to follow the path of legal theory that was opened up in 2018. </p><p>Aside from the indignation aroused by Mattarella’s intervention in 2018, what is the level at which we should appropriately analyse the process of political construction that is going on in Europe and playing out at the national level? In the LRB recently <a href="https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v42/n24/perry-anderson/the-european-coup">Perry Anderson made Luuk van Middelaar</a>’s work into the anchor for a gigantic review of the European scene. For Middelaar finding a realistic language and conceptual basis for analysing Europe is the central challenge and this is presumably also his appeal to Anderson. There is nothing Anderson appreciates more than a bracing whiff of realism. </p><p>In the debate about the Italian crisis in 2018 one of the key moves made by Fichera is to argue that we should not get bogged down - for or against - in matters of textual interpretation of the Italian constitution. What needs to be recognized is the de facto development of what he calls the “material constitution”. He doesnt elaborate on his meaning, focusing instead on the rather ethereal meta-discursive frame of security. For a somewhat more substantial discussion of the material constitution, one can turn to <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2875774">Michael A. Wilkinson and Macro Goldoni</a>. See also their <em><a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1468-2230.12352">Modern Law Review</a></em><a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1468-2230.12352"> </a>paper.</p><p>These are very rich interventions with a fascinating discussion of two interwar theorists of the law and the state who should be much better known. Hermann Heller and Constantino Mortati. But it is their analytical framework I want to focus on here. </p><blockquote><p>What is the material context of constitutional order? The purpose of this paper is to offer an answer to that question by sketching a theory of the material constitution. Distinguishing it from related approaches, in particular sociological constitutionalism, Marxist constitutionalism, and political jurisprudence, the paper outlines the basic elements of the material constitution, specifying its four ordering factors. These are political unity, the dominant form of which remains the modern nation-state; a set of institutions, including but not limited to formal governmental branches such as courts, parliaments, executives, administrations; a network of social relations, including class interests and social movements, and a set of fundamental political objectives (or teloi). These factors provide the material substance and internal dynamic of the process of constitutional ordering. They are not external to the constitution but are a feature of juristic knowledge, standing in internal relation and tension with the formal constitution. Because these ordering factors are multiple, and in conflict with one another, there is no single determining factor of constitutional development. Neither is order as such guaranteed. The conflict that characterizes the modern human condition might but need not be internalised by the process of constitutional ordering. The theory of the material constitution offers an account of the basic elements of this process as well as its internal dynamic.</p></blockquote><p>Abstract at this sounds - and this is the abstract of the paper - the idea of defining the “material constitution” of Italy and its relationship with Europe in terms of these four distinct dimensions - the grounds of political unity, institutions, social relations and the common purpose - is, in fact, extremely useful. </p><p>As for the grounds of political unity, you could say that Europe-Italy is in something of a counterflow. On the one hand in the wake of COVID, the notion of a community of fate at the European level is stronger than ever before. This is a phrase that Middelaar has picked up from the German usage. On the other hand in Italy it is also worth stressing that the particular parties that monopolize the integralist language of unity, are the far right. In particular Meloni’s post-fascist Fratelli d’Italia are now a real threat. Unity is a poisoned chalice. </p><p>Crisis management in 2020-2021 involved clear institutional development and it is for that reason that Draghi matters. Next Gen EU is a huge institutional step forward. In a classic institutionalist mode, Italy and France have announced their intention to insist on it as a precedent for further action. No less significant is the institutional autonomy again displayed by the ECB in responding to the COVID crisis and the ongoing recovery process. This is where Draghi is pivotal, as a representative of Italy and key institutional player. The independent reality of these institutional structures is not reducible to the sheer quantity of resources they can mobilize. In the worst case scenario of an escalating debt crisis, institutional and legal issues will come back to the fore with a vengeance. </p><p>A key element of any constitution, as Wilkinson and Goldoni insist, is its purpose. Polities are wedded to purposes and thus, in the modern conception, to history. This is particularly true for the EU. As Middelaar has also noted, the EU is compulsively attached to a telos, a future goal, “ever closer union” is an end in itself. This cannot be dismissed as mere self-serving ideology. It is crucial to motivating action. Again, since 2018 Europe has lurched towards a redefinition of its purpose and in this respect too, NextGen EU matters, beyond the numbers and the institutional structures. It defines a purpose of collective green modernization. The significance of that project can now be judged against the Biden Presidency’s stranded project of Build Back Better and the huge hole that has torn in the Democrats’ agenda. </p><p>But this leaves the fourth facet, social relations. The basic question remains, is there any prospect of the socio-economic structure of Italy shifting, so as to enable an escape from the fiscal impasse? And with this, we are back to “economics”, which we will think of here not as a naive expression of “underlying” social relations but, in complex ways as their correlate. </p><p>The pessimists will say that the structures are entrenched and heavy and hard to move. You can’t accelerate Italy’s growth with a sprinkle of Draghi’s fairy dust and a bit of administrative reform. See this critical <a href="https://unherd.com/2022/01/how-the-eu-destroyed-italian-democracy/">write-up</a> of the Draghi project by Thomas Fazi and <strong>Paolo Cornetti</strong>. On Italy’s organic crisis, see also this piece by <a href="https://americanaffairsjournal.org/2018/05/italys-organic-crisis/">Fazi</a>. And this remarkable write-up, also by Fazi, on the <a href="https://americanaffairsjournal.org/2021/05/the-eternal-return-of-technical-government-in-italy/">eternal return of technocratic government</a> in Italy. In a short piece on the 2018 crisis, Wilkinson takes up Fazi’s concept of an <a href="http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/90908/1/Wilkinson_A-crisis_Author.pdf">organic crisis</a>. </p><p>The substance is, in fact, not in dispute. <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/CR/Issues/2021/06/02/Italy-2021-Article-IV-Consultation-Press-Release-Staff-Report-and-Statement-by-the-Executive-50196">In communication with the IMF </a>the Italian government has put the maximum growth effect of Next Gen EU, at less than 1 percent. That is a step in the right direction, but hardly a national take off. But growth rates are not the only crucial issue. Precisely in light of the four-dimensional definition of Italy’s situation inspired by Wilkinson and Goldoni’s definition of the “material constitution”, a surge in actual growth is only one facet of a stabilization of Italy’s situation. Indeed, even in the realm of the economic, growth aside, the mesh of social relations that hold Italy in Europe, is thick and complex and resistant to radical crisis. </p><p>If crisis management is the key, then it may not be Draghi’s person, but in the end social relations that provide the critical check. The key figure here may be Draghi’s development minister Giancarlo Giorgetti, who represents business interests within the nationalist Lega. He may provide an internal check on the radicalization of any future right-wing government. There is simply too much at stake to allow a full blown crisis scenario to unfold. And this logic applies not just to Italy nationally. When it comes to Italian debt, in the end things move, solutions are found, because the threat of a crisis is simply too extreme. </p><p>Going back to 2018 evokes dark nightmares. We are far from any such situation in 2022. Though Italian yields have nudged up, they are far below critical levels. The mood between Rome, Berlin and Paris is good. There is no prospect of an imminent escalation. But there is a reason that the question of Draghi’s Presidency matters. The fact of Italy’s debt to GDP level of 155 percent remains, as does the fact of Italy’s economic stagnation. At the very least, one can agree with Fazi et al, that the question has not been conjured off the table. </p><p>In the mean time, I’m frankly delighted to have stumbled into the legal theory literature. There is a huge amount to dig into here. By way of theorists like Heller and Mortati it forms an organic link between the crises of the interwar period and the present. Both Fichera and Wilkinson have recent books out that merit more attention. In <em>The Foundations of the EU as a Polity</em> Massimo Fichera elaborates on his idea that “European constitutionalism has been informed from its earliest stages by a meta-rationale, which is expressed by security and fundamental rights as discourses of power.” Wilkinson’s book on Europe and authoritarian liberalism <a href="https://global.oup.com/academic/product/authoritarian-liberalism-and-the-transformation-of-modern-europe-9780198854753?cc=us&lang=en&">appeared last August with OUP</a>. I’m really looking forward to getting into it. </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SeCI!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F14367c57-75f5-484e-8ffb-41fc81c40c41_528x792.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SeCI!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F14367c57-75f5-484e-8ffb-41fc81c40c41_528x792.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SeCI!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F14367c57-75f5-484e-8ffb-41fc81c40c41_528x792.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SeCI!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F14367c57-75f5-484e-8ffb-41fc81c40c41_528x792.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SeCI!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F14367c57-75f5-484e-8ffb-41fc81c40c41_528x792.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/14367c57-75f5-484e-8ffb-41fc81c40c41_528x792.png" width="312" height="468" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/14367c57-75f5-484e-8ffb-41fc81c40c41_528x792.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":792,"width":528,"resizeWidth":312,"bytes":477872,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SeCI!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F14367c57-75f5-484e-8ffb-41fc81c40c41_528x792.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SeCI!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F14367c57-75f5-484e-8ffb-41fc81c40c41_528x792.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SeCI!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F14367c57-75f5-484e-8ffb-41fc81c40c41_528x792.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SeCI!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F14367c57-75f5-484e-8ffb-41fc81c40c41_528x792.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>In the mean time, I’ve done a review of van Middelaar’s <em>Pandemonium</em> which should be appearing in <em>New Statesman</em> at the end of the month. It is a much shorter piece than Anderson’s but, I think, addresses a huge blindspot in both Middelaar and Anderson’s reading of the contemporary European scene - a blindspot the size of the climate. Watch this space. </p><p>*****</p><p>I love putting out Chartbook. I am particularly pleased that it goes out to thousands of subscribers around the world for free. But it takes a lot of work. 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