Version: 4 (current) | Updated: 11/13/2025, 6:19:33 AM
Added description
**Files (documents)**
@file_pinax:document {title: "Afghanistan Crisis: Economic and Humanitarian Analysis", creator: @adam_tooze, created: @date_2021_08_15, type: "Collection", language: "en", subjects: ["Afghanistan","Humanitarian crisis","Economic crisis","Taliban","Foreign aid","Trade deficit","Currency depreciation","Food prices","Famine","Sanctions","Political crisis"]}
@file_39885295_top_links_11_afghanistan_atwood_communist:document {title: "Top Links #11 Afghanistan, Atwood, Communist money", creator: @adam_tooze, created: @date_2021_08_15, type: "newsletter"}
@file_40078795_chartbook_33_from_afghanistan_to:document {title: "Chartbook #33: From Afghanistan to Haiti", creator: @adam_tooze, created: @date_2021_08_18, type: "newsletter"}
@file_40114681_top_link_12_afghanistan:document {title: "Top Links #12 Afghanistan", creator: @adam_tooze, created: @date_2021_08_17, type: "newsletter"}
@file_40215219_top_links_13_financing_afghanistans:document {title: "Top Links #13 Financing Afghanistan's new regime and the struggle over its national exchange reserve", creator: @adam_tooze, created: @date_2021_08_20, type: "newsletter"}
@file_40252038_adam_tooze_tl_13_can_afghan_cover:document {title: "Adam Tooze TL #13 Can Afghan cover its trade deficit? … and more on the politics of Afghanistan's central bank.", creator: @adam_tooze, created: @date_2021_08_20, type: "newsletter"}
@file_40504935_chartbook_35_its_not_the_fall_that:document {title: "Chartbook #35: It's not the fall that kills you … Afghanistan's looming triple crisis", creator: @adam_tooze, created: @date_2021_08_28, type: "newsletter"}
@file_40669810_chartbook_top_link_16_the_afghan:document {title: "Chartbook Top Link #16 The Afghan evacuation, the red scare in Germany and inventor crazybrains.", creator: @adam_tooze, created: @date_2021_09_03, type: "newsletter"}
**People**
@adam_tooze:person {full_name: "Adam Tooze"}
@ajmal_ahmady:person {full_name: "Ajmal Ahmady", role: "Former Governor of Da Afghanistan Bank", education: ["UCLA","Harvard"], former_employer: ["U.S. Treasury","World Bank","Private equity","Booz Allen Hamilton"]}
@james_oaten:person {full_name: "James Oaten"}
@paul_rogers:person {full_name: "Paul Rogers"}
@alex_doherty:person {full_name: "Alex Doherty"}
@pseudoerasmus:person {full_name: "Pseudoerasmus"}
@jeffrey_p_clemens:person {full_name: "Jeffrey P. Clemens"}
@john_paul_koning:person {full_name: "John Paul Koning"}
@bruno_amable:person {full_name: "Bruno Amable"}
@bernard_henri_levy:person {full_name: "Bernard‑Henri Lévy"}
@david_mansfield:person {full_name: "David Mansfield"}
@graeme_smith:person {full_name: "Graeme Smith"}
@saad_mohseni:person {full_name: "Saad Mohseni"}
@zabihullah_mujahid:person {full_name: "Zabihullah Mujahid"}
@nick_mulder:person {full_name: "Nick Mulder"}
@timothy_nunan:person {full_name: "Timothy Nunan"}
@ashraf_ghani:person {full_name: "Ashraf Ghani"}
@claire_lockhart:person {full_name: "Claire Lockhart"}
**Organizations / Institutions**
@da_afghanistan_bank:organization {full_name: "Da Afghanistan Bank", type: "central bank"}
@world_bank:organization {full_name: "World Bank"}
@imf:organization {full_name: "International Monetary Fund"}
@g7:organization {full_name: "Group of Seven (G7)"}
@us_treasury:organization {full_name: "U.S. Department of the Treasury"}
@us_federal_reserve:organization {full_name: "Federal Reserve Bank of New York"}
@western_union:organization {full_name: "Western Union"}
@brookings:organization {full_name: "Brookings Institution"}
@the_economist:organization {full_name: "The Economist"}
@central_banking:organization {full_name: "Central Banking (publication)"}
@odi:organization {full_name: "Overseas Development Institute"}
@foreign_policy:organization {full_name: "Foreign Policy"}
@noema:organization {full_name: "Noema Magazine"}
@yale_university_press:organization {full_name: "Yale University Press"}
@ft:organization {full_name: "Financial Times"}
@reuters:organization {full_name: "Reuters"}
@wsj:organization {full_name: "Wall Street Journal"}
@cnn:organization {full_name: "CNN"}
@bloomberg:organization {full_name: "Bloomberg"}
@cnbc:organization {full_name: "CNBC"}
**Places**
@afghanistan:place {full_name: "Afghanistan"}
@kabul:place {full_name: "Kabul", country: @afghanistan}
@haiti:place {full_name: "Haiti"}
@iran:place {full_name: "Iran"}
@india:place {full_name: "India"}
@pakistan:place {full_name: "Pakistan"}
@uzbekistan:place {full_name: "Uzbekistan"}
@central_asian_neighbors:place {description: "Countries of Central Asia (e.g., Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan) that supply food and electricity to Afghanistan"}
@china:place {full_name: "China"}
@russia:place {full_name: "Russia"}
@moscow:place {full_name: "Moscow", country: @russia}
**Dates**
@date_2020:date {year: 2020}
@date_2021:date {year: 2021}
@date_2021_08_14:date {year: 2021, month: 08, day: 14}
@date_2021_08_15:date {year: 2021, month: 08, day: 15}
@date_2021_08_16:date {year: 2021, month: 08, day: 16}
@date_2021_08_17:date {year: 2021, month: 08, day: 17}
@date_2021_08_18:date {year: 2021, month: 08, day: 18}
@date_2021_08_20:date {year: 2021, month: 08, day: 20}
@date_2021_08_28:date {year: 2021, month: 08, day: 28}
@date_2021_09_03:date {year: 2021, month: 09, day: 03}
@date_2021_04:date {year: 2021, month: 04}
**Economic & Financial Entities (documents)**
@trade_deficit_2020:document {type: "economic indicator", description: "Afghanistan's trade deficit in 2020", amount_usd: "$5.69 billion", year: @date_2020}
@gdp_2020:document {type: "economic indicator", description: "Afghanistan's GDP in 2020", amount_usd: "$20 billion", year: @date_2020}
@foreign_aid_2020:document {type: "economic indicator", description: "Foreign aid received by Afghanistan in 2020", amount_usd: "≈ $9 billion (estimated)", year: @date_2020}
@afghan_reserves_april_2021:document {type: "reserve assets", description: "Afghanistan central bank reserve assets as of April 2021", amount_usd: "$9.4 billion", year: @date_2021_04}
@gold_reserves_afg:document {type: "gold holdings", description: "Gold held by Da Afghanistan Bank at the Federal Reserve", ounces: 703005, value_usd: "$1.25 billion"}
@afghani_exchange_rate_2020_end:document {type: "exchange rate", description: "Afghani to USD at end of 2020", rate: "77 AFN per USD", date: @date_2021_01_01}
@afghani_exchange_rate_2021_aug_17:document {type: "exchange rate", description: "Afghani to USD on 17 Aug 2021", rate: "100 AFN per USD", date: @date_2021_08_17}
@afghani_exchange_rate_2021_aug_18_settle:document {type: "exchange rate", description: "Afghani to USD after settlement (≈86 AFN per USD)", date: @date_2021_08_18}
@remittances_2021:document {type: "remittances", description: "Remittances to Afghanistan (≈ 4 % of GDP)", year: @date_2021}
@sdr_issuance_2021:document {type: "IMF Special Drawing Rights", description: "$450 million SDR issuance planned for Afghanistan", year: @date_2021}
@taliban_transport_tolls:document {type: "taxation", description: "Taliban transport tolls revenue (fuel and border transit)", source: @the_economist}
@taliban_fuel_tax_report:document {type: "taxation", description: "ODI report on Taliban taxation of fuel and border transit", source: @odi}
@nick_mulder_book_sanctions:document {type: "book", title: "The History and Politics of Sanctions", author: @nick_mulder, publisher: @yale_university_press}
@timothy_nunan_book_afghanistan:document {type: "book", title: "Humanitarian Invasion, Global Development, Cold War Afghanistan", author: @timothy_nunan, publisher: @cambridge_university_press}
**Events**
@taliban_takeover_kabul:event {description: "Taliban capture of Kabul", date: @date_2021_08_15, location: @kabul}
@afghan_evacuation_aug_14_31:event {description: "U.S. and allied evacuation from Kabul (14‑31 Aug 2021)", start: @date_2021_08_14, end: @date_2021_08_31, location: @kabul}
@afghan_currency_depreciation_aug_2021:event {description: "Sharp depreciation of the Afghani", start: @date_2021_08_17, end: @date_2021_08_18}
@afghan_reserves_freeze:event {description: "U.S. Treasury freezes Afghan central bank reserves", date: @date_2021_08_18}
@western_union_halt_afghanistan:event {description: "Western Union suspends money transfers to Afghanistan", date: @date_2021_08_18}
@g7_sanctions_discussion:event {description: "G7 discussion on cutting off Afghan funds as a sanction", date: @date_2021_08_20}
**Relationships**
@adam_tooze -> created -> @file_pinax {when: @date_2021_08_15}
@adam_tooze -> created -> @file_39885295_top_links_11_afghanistan_atwood_communist {when: @date_2021_08_15}
@adam_tooze -> created -> @file_40078795_chartbook_33_from_afghanistan_to {when: @date_2021_08_18}
@adam_tooze -> created -> @file_40114681_top_link_12_afghanistan {when: @date_2021_08_17}
@adam_tooze -> created -> @file_40215219_top_links_13_financing_afghanistans {when: @date_2021_08_20}
@adam_tooze -> created -> @file_40252038_adam_tooze_tl_13_can_afghan_cover {when: @date_2021_08_20}
@adam_tooze -> created -> @file_40504935_chartbook_35_its_not_the_fall_that {when: @date_2021_08_28}
@adam_tooze -> created -> @file_40669810_chartbook_top_link_16_the_afghan {when: @date_2021_09_03}
@file_pinax -> about -> @afghanistan
@file_40078795_chartbook_33_from_afghanistan_to -> compares -> @afghanistan and @haiti
@file_40215219_top_links_13_financing_afghanistans -> discusses -> @trade_deficit_2020
@file_40215219_top_links_13_financing_afghanistans -> discusses -> @afghan_reserves_april_2021
@file_40215219_top_links_13_financing_afghanistans -> discusses -> @remittances_2021
@file_40215219_top_links_13_financing_afghanistans -> discusses -> @western_union_halt_afghanistan
@file_40215219_top_links_13_financing_afghanistans -> discusses -> @g7_sanctions_discussion
@file_40504935_chartbook_35_its_not_the_fall_that -> highlights -> @afghan_currency_depreciation_aug_2021
@file_40504935_chartbook_35_its_not_the_fall_that -> warns -> @afghan_humanitarian_crisis
@file_40504935_chartbook_35_its_not_the_fall_that -> warns -> @afghan_economic_collapse
@file_40669810_chartbook_top_link_16_the_afghan -> presents -> @afghan_evacuation_aug_14_31
@ajmal_ahmady -> former_governor_of -> @da_afghanistan_bank
@ajmal_ahmady -> tweeted_about -> @afghan_reserves_april_2021 {content: "The reserves are held outside Afghanistan, mainly in the United States"}
@john_paul_koning -> reported -> @gold_reserves_afg
@james_oaten -> posted_deleted_tweet_about -> @taliban_takeover_kabul
@paul_rogers -> discussed -> @taliban_takeover_kabul on @politics_theory_other (podcast)
@pseudoerasmus -> clarified -> "Taliban ≠ 1980s mujahideen"
@jeffrey_p_clemens -> critiqued -> @afghan_opium_policy
@bruno_amable -> tweeted -> "Growth models literature has become an innovation narrative"
@bernard_henri_levy -> claimed -> "Taliban are not a military force; women are taking power"
@david_mansfield -> coauthored -> @taliban_fuel_tax_report
@graeme_smith -> coauthored -> @taliban_fuel_tax_report
@saad_mohseni -> appealed_for -> "generous funding for Afghanistan"
@ajmal_ahmady -> appealed_for -> "generous funding for Afghanistan"
@nick_mulder -> authored -> @nick_mulder_book_sanctions
@timothy_nunan -> authored -> @timothy_nunan_book_afghanistan
@ashraf_ghani -> former_president_of -> @afghanistan
@claire_lockhart -> coauthor_of -> "Fixing Failed States" (book) with @ashraf_ghani
@taliban_takeover_kabul -> caused -> @afghan_currency_depreciation_aug_2021
@taliban_takeover_kabul -> caused -> @afghan_reserves_freeze
@taliban_takeover_kabul -> caused -> @western_union_halt_afghanistan
@taliban_takeover_kabul -> caused -> @g7_sanctions_discussion
@afghan_reserves_april_2021 -> amount_usd -> "$9.4 billion"
@afghan_reserves_april_2021 -> includes -> @gold_reserves_afg
@afghan_reserves_april_2021 -> location -> @us_federal_reserve
@us_federal_reserve -> holds_gold_of -> @da_afghanistan_bank
@us_treasury -> froze -> @afghan_reserves_april_2021
@imf -> prepared -> @sdr_issuance_2021
@world_bank -> reported -> @trade_deficit_2020
@world_bank -> reported -> @gdp_2020
@world_bank -> reported -> @remittances_2021
@imf -> reported -> @remittances_2021
@western_union -> halted_services_to -> @afghanistan {date: @date_2021_08_18}
@afghanistan -> imports -> @petroleum_products {source: @iran, category: "energy"}
@afghanistan -> imports -> @electricity {source: @central_asian_neighbors, category: "energy"}
@afghanistan -> imports -> @mineral_oil_products
@afghanistan -> exports -> @gold {value_usd: "$1.25 billion"}
@afghanistan -> exports -> @agricultural_produce
@afghanistan -> has_trade_deficit_percent_GDP -> "25‑30 %" {year: @date_2021}
@afghanistan -> relies_on -> @foreign_aid_2020
@afghanistan -> relies_on -> @remittances_2021
@afghanistan -> suffers_from -> @poverty_rate {value: ">50 %"}
@afghanistan -> suffers_from -> @inflation_high {cause: "currency depreciation"}
@afghanistan -> faces -> @humanitarian_crisis {source: "food insecurity, drought, conflict"}
@afghanistan -> faces -> @economic_crisis {source: "trade deficit, reserve freeze"}
@afghanistan -> life_expectancy_2008 -> "overtook Haiti"
@haiti -> life_expectancy_2008 -> "behind Afghanistan"
@haiti -> gini_coefficient -> 0.61
@haiti -> GDP_per_capita_current_exchange_rate -> "higher than Afghanistan"
@afghanistan -> GDP_per_capita_current_exchange_rate -> "lower than Haiti"
@afghanistan -> GDP_per_capita_PPP -> "higher than Haiti"
@afghanistan -> import_bill -> "far exceeds export earnings"
@afghanistan -> foreign_exchange_gap -> "covered by aid"
@afghanistan -> foreign_exchange_gap -> "now shrinking due to aid cut"
@afghan_central_bank -> implements -> capital_controls {status: "required"}
@afghan_central_bank -> expects -> currency_depreciation {scenario: "treasury freezes assets"}
@afghan_central_bank -> expects -> inflation_rise {scenario: "high pass‑through"}
@afghan_central_bank -> expects -> food_price_increase {impact: "hurts poor"}
@afghan_central_bank -> staff_asked_about -> @afghan_reserves_april_2021 (tweet)
@taliban -> taxes -> @taliban_transport_tolls
@taliban -> claims_to -> "eschew drugs, revive economy" (statement)
@taliban -> imposes -> "transport tolls, fuel taxes"
@taliban -> may_receive -> "Chinese investment in rare‑earth mines"
@taliban -> may receive -> "Indian investment interest"
@china -> invested_in -> "One Belt One Road projects in Afghanistan" {amount: "$282 billion"}
@us -> halted -> "$450 million SDR issuance" {date: @date_2021_08_18}
@g7 -> suggested -> "cut off Afghan foreign exchange reserves"
@g7 -> discussed -> "sanctions as a tool against Taliban"
**Additional Contextual Links**
@ft_article_nolan_2021 -> discusses -> @taliban_economics
@reuters_article_2021_08_14 -> reports -> @afghan_currency_depreciation
@wsj_article_2021_08_14 -> reports -> @us_halts_dollar_shipments_to_afghanistan
@cnn_article_2021_08_18 -> reports -> @afghani_trading_at_100_per_usd
@bloomberg_graphic_2021_08_18 -> shows -> @afghani_exchange_rate_trend
@the_economist_article_2019_05_18 -> describes -> @taliban_transport_tolls
@centralbanking_article_2021_08_18 -> analyses -> @integrity_of_afghan_central_bank
@odi_report_2021_08_21 -> details -> @taliban_fuel_tax_report
@foreign_policy_article_2021_08_27 -> titled -> "Afghanistan: Taliban, economy, aid, sanctions"
@noema_essay_2021_08_20 -> titled -> "The End of Nation‑Building" (by @timothy_nunan)
---
*All entities are defined once; subsequent mentions use only the code (e.g., @afghanistan, @da_afghanistan_bank, @date_2021_08_15).*<!--
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<p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{"url":"https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/top-links-11-afghanistan-atwood-communist?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share","text":"Share","action":null,"class":null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/top-links-11-afghanistan-atwood-communist?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share"><span>Share</span></a></p><p><strong>Looking for something good to listen to on Afghanistan?</strong></p><p>Can’t recommend this discussion between Alex Doherty and the ever-excellent Paul Rogers on Politics Theory Other highly enough. Measured, lucid, informative. </p><div class="soundcloud-wrap" data-attrs="{"url":"https://api.soundcloud.com/tracks/1105451398","title":"The Taliban on the verge of victory w/ Paul Rogers by Politics Theory Other","description":"Paul Rogers joins PTO to talk about the Taliban's advance across Afghanistan and the possibility of an imminent takeover of the capital Kabul. We spoke about why the Taliban have been so successful against the more numerous and better equipped and supported Afghan government forces, what the Taliban's victory might mean for India, Pakistan and China, and finally we discussed how history will judge Western military intervention in the country.","thumbnail_url":"https://i1.sndcdn.com/artworks-vTU6RRUVOO1mqSVE-LSmyKw-t500x500.jpg","author_name":"Politics Theory Other","author_url":"https://soundcloud.com/poltheoryother","targetUrl":""}" data-component-name="SoundcloudToDOM"><iframe src="https://w.soundcloud.com/player/?auto_play=false&buying=false&liking=false&download=false&sharing=false&show_artwork=true&show_comments=false&show_playcount=false&show_user=true&hide_related=true&visual=false&start_track=0&url=https%3A%2F%2Fapi.soundcloud.com%2Ftracks%2F1105451398" frameborder="0" gesture="media" scrolling="no" allowfullscreen="true"></iframe></div><p><strong>The Loneliness of the Military Historian </strong></p><p>I discovered this week that the great Margaret Atwood wrote a poem called “The Loneliness of the Military Historian”. I have to admit, my mind was blown. </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7Hp_!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff9ec55d1-dce4-4bff-9481-02ecbfe2ed8f_1140x1112.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7Hp_!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff9ec55d1-dce4-4bff-9481-02ecbfe2ed8f_1140x1112.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7Hp_!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff9ec55d1-dce4-4bff-9481-02ecbfe2ed8f_1140x1112.png 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data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f9ec55d1-dce4-4bff-9481-02ecbfe2ed8f_1140x1112.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":1112,"width":1140,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":180358,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":false,"topImage":true,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7Hp_!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff9ec55d1-dce4-4bff-9481-02ecbfe2ed8f_1140x1112.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7Hp_!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff9ec55d1-dce4-4bff-9481-02ecbfe2ed8f_1140x1112.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7Hp_!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff9ec55d1-dce4-4bff-9481-02ecbfe2ed8f_1140x1112.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!7Hp_!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff9ec55d1-dce4-4bff-9481-02ecbfe2ed8f_1140x1112.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>The <a href="https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poems/47788/the-loneliness-of-the-military-historian">complete poem</a> is at the Poetry Foundations site. </p><p><strong>Inflation and monetary pressure under Communist</strong></p><p>I’m in the weeds right now, trying to figure out why China and the Soviet Union’s paths diverged so dramatically in the late 1980s and 1990s. </p><p>For those who really want to know, these are two fascinating books. </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fCHq!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F47280cab-2880-44d6-a372-078b13fdab9e_658x994.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fCHq!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F47280cab-2880-44d6-a372-078b13fdab9e_658x994.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fCHq!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F47280cab-2880-44d6-a372-078b13fdab9e_658x994.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fCHq!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F47280cab-2880-44d6-a372-078b13fdab9e_658x994.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fCHq!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F47280cab-2880-44d6-a372-078b13fdab9e_658x994.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/47280cab-2880-44d6-a372-078b13fdab9e_658x994.png" width="378" height="571.0212765957447" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/47280cab-2880-44d6-a372-078b13fdab9e_658x994.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":994,"width":658,"resizeWidth":378,"bytes":1172311,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fCHq!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F47280cab-2880-44d6-a372-078b13fdab9e_658x994.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fCHq!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F47280cab-2880-44d6-a372-078b13fdab9e_658x994.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fCHq!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F47280cab-2880-44d6-a372-078b13fdab9e_658x994.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!fCHq!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F47280cab-2880-44d6-a372-078b13fdab9e_658x994.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1UIJ!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc00038d0-20e7-4cb6-9682-c50cd0548c5f_562x894.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1UIJ!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc00038d0-20e7-4cb6-9682-c50cd0548c5f_562x894.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1UIJ!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc00038d0-20e7-4cb6-9682-c50cd0548c5f_562x894.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1UIJ!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc00038d0-20e7-4cb6-9682-c50cd0548c5f_562x894.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1UIJ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc00038d0-20e7-4cb6-9682-c50cd0548c5f_562x894.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/c00038d0-20e7-4cb6-9682-c50cd0548c5f_562x894.png" width="368" height="585.3950177935943" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/c00038d0-20e7-4cb6-9682-c50cd0548c5f_562x894.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":894,"width":562,"resizeWidth":368,"bytes":563517,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1UIJ!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc00038d0-20e7-4cb6-9682-c50cd0548c5f_562x894.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1UIJ!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc00038d0-20e7-4cb6-9682-c50cd0548c5f_562x894.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1UIJ!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc00038d0-20e7-4cb6-9682-c50cd0548c5f_562x894.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1UIJ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc00038d0-20e7-4cb6-9682-c50cd0548c5f_562x894.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Unfortunately, Shih and the rest of the literature on China does not refer to Woodruff. I am trying to psych myself up to make the rather bold connection in a piece that I am drafting right now. Wish me luck! </p><p>If you enjoy Chartbook why not share it with a friend?</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{"url":"https://adamtooze.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share","text":"Share Chartbook","action":null,"class":null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share"><span>Share Chartbook</span></a></p><p><strong>Regulation school economics</strong></p><p>In the 1970s French economists created an interesting way to think about what you might call capitalist growth regimes, or regimes of accumulation. </p><p>Michel Aglietta was one of the leaders of this group. To have this on your reading list in the 1980s generated a bit of a frisson. </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CToi!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6518b9c6-fe68-4413-9759-2b3c9279dd44_894x562.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CToi!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6518b9c6-fe68-4413-9759-2b3c9279dd44_894x562.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CToi!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6518b9c6-fe68-4413-9759-2b3c9279dd44_894x562.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CToi!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6518b9c6-fe68-4413-9759-2b3c9279dd44_894x562.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CToi!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6518b9c6-fe68-4413-9759-2b3c9279dd44_894x562.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/6518b9c6-fe68-4413-9759-2b3c9279dd44_894x562.png" width="894" height="562" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/6518b9c6-fe68-4413-9759-2b3c9279dd44_894x562.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":562,"width":894,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":696682,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CToi!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6518b9c6-fe68-4413-9759-2b3c9279dd44_894x562.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CToi!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6518b9c6-fe68-4413-9759-2b3c9279dd44_894x562.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CToi!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6518b9c6-fe68-4413-9759-2b3c9279dd44_894x562.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CToi!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6518b9c6-fe68-4413-9759-2b3c9279dd44_894x562.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>On twitter this week, this rant on the need to revisit French regulation theory by Bruno Amable was good, especially if you can hack the French. </p><div data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM" class="tweet" data-attrs="{"url":"https://twitter.com/bruno_amable/status/1349392771195559938?s=20","full_text":"1/N\nIt baffles me how the recent literature on \"growth models\" has managed to sell itself as an innovation that moved political economy beyond what had been achieved so far.","username":"bruno_amable","name":"Bruno Amable","date":"Wed Jan 13 16:28:01 +0000 2021","photos":[],"quoted_tweet":{},"retweet_count":9,"like_count":45,"expanded_url":{},"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":true}"><a class="tweet-link-top" href="https://twitter.com/bruno_amable/status/1349392771195559938?s=20" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-header"><img class="tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/bruno_amable.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @bruno_amable" loading="lazy"><div class="tweet-header-text"><span class="tweet-author-name">Bruno Amable </span><span class="tweet-author-handle">@bruno_amable</span></div></div><div class="tweet-text">1/N
It baffles me how the recent literature on "growth models" has managed to sell itself as an innovation that moved political economy beyond what had been achieved so far.</div></a><a class="tweet-link-bottom" href="https://twitter.com/bruno_amable/status/1349392771195559938?s=20" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-footer"><span class="tweet-date">4:28 PM ∙ Jan 13, 2021</span><hr><div class="tweet-ufi"><span href="https://twitter.com/bruno_amable/status/1349392771195559938?s=20/likes" class="likes"><span class="like-count">45</span>Likes</span><span href="https://twitter.com/bruno_amable/status/1349392771195559938?s=20/retweets" class="retweets"><span class="rt-count">9</span>Retweets</span></div></div></a></div><p><strong>Bitcoin in the Caribbean/Central America</strong></p><p>After El Salvador, here is a <a href="https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/cubas-bitcoin-revolution">fascinating piece </a>on Bitcoin in Cuba.</p><div data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM" class="tweet" data-attrs="{"url":"https://twitter.com/adam_tooze/status/1426928241336623104?s=20","full_text":"Inside Cuba’s Bitcoin Revolution ","username":"adam_tooze","name":"Adam Tooze","date":"Sun Aug 15 15:26:18 +0000 2021","photos":[],"quoted_tweet":{},"retweet_count":0,"like_count":0,"expanded_url":{"url":"https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/cubas-bitcoin-revolution","image":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/0af761c7-4686-456b-85ca-a49cc4961361_1200x675.png","title":"Inside Cuba’s Bitcoin Revolution","description":"As political demonstrations show the world that Cubans are tired of dictatorship, Bitcoin is providing an option to opt out.","domain":"bitcoinmagazine.com"},"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":true}"><a class="tweet-link-top" href="https://twitter.com/adam_tooze/status/1426928241336623104?s=20" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-header"><img class="tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/adam_tooze.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @adam_tooze" loading="lazy"><div class="tweet-header-text"><span class="tweet-author-name">Adam Tooze </span><span class="tweet-author-handle">@adam_tooze</span></div></div><div class="tweet-text">Inside Cuba’s Bitcoin Revolution </div><a class="expanded-link" href="https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/cubas-bitcoin-revolution" target="_blank"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/0af761c7-4686-456b-85ca-a49cc4961361_1200x675.png" class="expanded-link-img" loading="lazy"><div class="expanded-link-bottom"><span class="expanded-link-domain">bitcoinmagazine.com</span><span class="expanded-link-title">Inside Cuba’s Bitcoin Revolution</span><span class="expanded-link-description">As political demonstrations show the world that Cubans are tired of dictatorship, Bitcoin is providing an option to opt out.</span></div></a></a><a class="tweet-link-bottom" href="https://twitter.com/adam_tooze/status/1426928241336623104?s=20" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-footer"><span class="tweet-date">3:26 PM ∙ Aug 15, 2021</span></div></a></div><p>Are the struggling states of the region going to be a portal for crypto with all its attendant risks and side effects? See <a href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-newsletter-20">Chartbook 20</a> for the wider context.</p><p><strong>From East Germany to Uzbekistan</strong></p><p>This was a truly charming story: </p><p>“In the summer of 1971, a young East German couple set off on a trip that would take them farther from home than any of their journeys before. They travelled to Uzbekistan, more than 5,000 kilometres east of Germany. One of the black-and-white photos from their adventure shows them both in their early 30s, standing in front of the Bibi-Khanym Mosque in Samarkand, smiling. The photo was taken a year before I was born. The couple went on to become my parents.”</p><p>The <a href="https://www.calvertjournal.com/features/show/13021/uzbekistan-50-years-ago-east-german-family-travel-photography-memory">Calvert Journa</a>l is one of those finds on the web. All about Central Asia. </p><p><strong>Value or demands? </strong></p><p>What should progressive politics appeal to? Values or the demands that motivates voters. A really thoughtful piece this in the <em><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/aug/06/labour-values-political-error-demands-politics-keir-starmer?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other">Guardian</a></em> by Alan Finlayson. </p><p><strong>Spice hoarding, or is that oregano older than your kids? </strong></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6Sf0!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F05fcf51c-5b16-4413-bdc6-56e36ab1d75f_468x636.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6Sf0!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F05fcf51c-5b16-4413-bdc6-56e36ab1d75f_468x636.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6Sf0!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F05fcf51c-5b16-4413-bdc6-56e36ab1d75f_468x636.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6Sf0!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F05fcf51c-5b16-4413-bdc6-56e36ab1d75f_468x636.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6Sf0!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F05fcf51c-5b16-4413-bdc6-56e36ab1d75f_468x636.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/05fcf51c-5b16-4413-bdc6-56e36ab1d75f_468x636.png" width="468" height="636" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/05fcf51c-5b16-4413-bdc6-56e36ab1d75f_468x636.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":636,"width":468,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":406656,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6Sf0!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F05fcf51c-5b16-4413-bdc6-56e36ab1d75f_468x636.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6Sf0!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F05fcf51c-5b16-4413-bdc6-56e36ab1d75f_468x636.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6Sf0!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F05fcf51c-5b16-4413-bdc6-56e36ab1d75f_468x636.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!6Sf0!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F05fcf51c-5b16-4413-bdc6-56e36ab1d75f_468x636.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>In 2014, <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/foodanddrink/foodanddrinknews/11245370/Brits-keep-240m-of-unused-herbs-in-their-kitchens.html">a survey found</a> that 13% of British residents had jars of herbs that were more than four years old. The study also noted that Britons were sitting on what then amounted to nearly $400 million in unused herbs and spices.</p><p>Given the far larger population of the U.S. and assuming that Americans and Brits have similar spice-saving habits, the dollar value of unused spices in the U.S. would be nearly five times that of the U.K.</p><p>McCormick & Co. <strong><a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/MKC?mod=MW_story_quote">MKC, +0.22%</a></strong>, the prominent U.S. spice company, says it regularly fields inquiries from consumers who have McCormick products that are more than 20 years old.</p><p>Source: <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/after-mccormick-recalls-seasonings-now-is-a-good-time-to-ask-is-your-oregano-older-than-your-kids-11627924337">Marketwatch</a></p><p><strong>Dung beetles and the Milky Way</strong></p><p>I’ve always had a thing for dung beetles. These amazing little creatures are even more remarkable than I realized. They have evolved to navigate by the Milky Way! And then came light pollution and then came a new generation of more efficient lightbulbs that are even worse. Cosmically melancholy story from the <em><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/31a01dfb-15a1-4469-ab89-4a14fccfd0b3">FT</a></em>. </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IGho!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0340768b-043a-43de-bd14-eecfde795845_1470x982.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IGho!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0340768b-043a-43de-bd14-eecfde795845_1470x982.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IGho!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0340768b-043a-43de-bd14-eecfde795845_1470x982.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IGho!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0340768b-043a-43de-bd14-eecfde795845_1470x982.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IGho!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0340768b-043a-43de-bd14-eecfde795845_1470x982.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/0340768b-043a-43de-bd14-eecfde795845_1470x982.png" width="1456" height="973" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/0340768b-043a-43de-bd14-eecfde795845_1470x982.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":973,"width":1456,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":1252168,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IGho!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0340768b-043a-43de-bd14-eecfde795845_1470x982.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IGho!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0340768b-043a-43de-bd14-eecfde795845_1470x982.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IGho!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0340768b-043a-43de-bd14-eecfde795845_1470x982.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IGho!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0340768b-043a-43de-bd14-eecfde795845_1470x982.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p></p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{"url":"https://adamtooze.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share","text":"Share Chartbook","action":null,"class":null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share"><span>Share Chartbook</span></a></p><!--
{
"post_id": "40078795.chartbook-33-from-afghanistan-to",
"post_date": "2021-08-18T15:02:50.298Z",
"is_published": true,
"email_sent_at": "2021-08-18T15:02:50.323Z",
"inbox_sent_at": "2021-08-18T15:02:50.323Z",
"type": "newsletter",
"audience": "everyone",
"title": "Chartbook #33: From Afghanistan to Haiti ",
"subtitle": "Grasping for ways to connect the crises."
}
-->
<p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{"url":"https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe now","action":null,"class":null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p>This week, two crises taking place simultaneously, affecting some of the most vulnerable people in the world - the Taliban conquest of Afghanistan and the earthquake in Haiti.</p><p>These two moments in history seem as though they are unfolding on planets that are remote from each other. </p><p>They are, of course, very different events. </p><p>Telling myself this, helps me to feel less uneasy about the extraordinary amount of attention I am focusing on the events at Kabul airport rather than on the earthquake that has killed at least 1900 people and injured 10,000 in Haiti, a close neighbor in the Caribbean.</p><p>I am not, of course, suggesting that an earthquake and a war are the same or should be treated as such. But, I am wondering at the different mental silos into which we place them and the way in which one has eclipsed the other. </p><p>After all, Haiti is reeling under the impact not just of natural disasters - an earthquake and a tropical storm. In the months preceding that it had been rocked by political turmoil, following the July 7 assassination of President Jovenel Moïse.</p><p>The retreat from Afghanistan is a cause of deep soul-searching, whereas the on-going poverty, dysfunction and violence in Haiti is simply the status quo. Even setting aside the broader US entanglement with the Caribbean, under Clinton, Bush and Obama, the US made massive interventions in Haiti. In 1994 this involved 25,000 soldiers and an aircraft carrier. </p><p>Right now, USAID is scrambling expert personnel to Haiti and concerned people in Congress will mobilize for a push to provide financial aid. But reading Biden’s speech on Afghanistan, I find myself wondering whether the ultimate aim of the Biden’s administration policy might not be characterized as the reduction of Afghanistan to the scale of Haiti on Washington’s radar screen, </p><p>If that is the case - no more than an “if” - what then is the category to which both are consigned? How far removed are we from Trump’s unspeakable classification of the countries of the world? </p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{"url":"https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe now","action":null,"class":null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p>You could also say that this is another way of wondering about the change that has come over US politics. </p><p>Not so long ago, in Washington DC, Haiti and Afghanistan were commonly evoked together. Both were classed in the category of high priority targets of intervention. What joined them together was the word that may not be used in the White House in 2021, what American forces were not “supposed” to be doing in Afghanistan i.e. “nation-building”.</p><p></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-rZJ!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F81bbe1ce-7fcf-45ff-a27e-fe84f0d917b9_688x1048.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-rZJ!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F81bbe1ce-7fcf-45ff-a27e-fe84f0d917b9_688x1048.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-rZJ!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F81bbe1ce-7fcf-45ff-a27e-fe84f0d917b9_688x1048.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-rZJ!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F81bbe1ce-7fcf-45ff-a27e-fe84f0d917b9_688x1048.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-rZJ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F81bbe1ce-7fcf-45ff-a27e-fe84f0d917b9_688x1048.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/81bbe1ce-7fcf-45ff-a27e-fe84f0d917b9_688x1048.png" width="688" height="1048" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/81bbe1ce-7fcf-45ff-a27e-fe84f0d917b9_688x1048.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":1048,"width":688,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":753033,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-rZJ!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F81bbe1ce-7fcf-45ff-a27e-fe84f0d917b9_688x1048.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-rZJ!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F81bbe1ce-7fcf-45ff-a27e-fe84f0d917b9_688x1048.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-rZJ!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F81bbe1ce-7fcf-45ff-a27e-fe84f0d917b9_688x1048.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!-rZJ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F81bbe1ce-7fcf-45ff-a27e-fe84f0d917b9_688x1048.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>If you return to the documents from the early 2000s in which not Bush appointees, but former members of the Clinton administration sought to synthesize and make sense of America’s foreign interventions, from postwar West Germany and postwar Japan to Iraq, there they were - Haiti and Afghanistan - side by side, stepping stones on the path from 1945 to 2003. </p><p>The personal link between the two Presidencies and the two interventions was James F. Dobbins, Clinton administration’s special envoy for Somalia, Haiti, Bosnia and Kosovo, and, in the aftermath of 11 September 2001, the Bush administration’s special envoy for Afghanistan. He served as Assistant Secretary of State for Europe, Special Assistant to the President for the Western Hemisphere and Ambassador to the European Community. </p><p>In 2003 Dobbins was Director for International Security and Defense Policy at the RAND Corporation. In the RAND report that he helmed, the Haiti and Afghanistan interventions were directly benchmarked against each other, along with the other major nation-building efforts. </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!T56T!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F331899d9-b3ff-4445-9107-4bc7dc4170fd_1558x1010.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!T56T!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F331899d9-b3ff-4445-9107-4bc7dc4170fd_1558x1010.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!T56T!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F331899d9-b3ff-4445-9107-4bc7dc4170fd_1558x1010.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!T56T!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F331899d9-b3ff-4445-9107-4bc7dc4170fd_1558x1010.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!T56T!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F331899d9-b3ff-4445-9107-4bc7dc4170fd_1558x1010.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/331899d9-b3ff-4445-9107-4bc7dc4170fd_1558x1010.png" width="1456" height="944" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/331899d9-b3ff-4445-9107-4bc7dc4170fd_1558x1010.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":944,"width":1456,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":171147,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!T56T!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F331899d9-b3ff-4445-9107-4bc7dc4170fd_1558x1010.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!T56T!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F331899d9-b3ff-4445-9107-4bc7dc4170fd_1558x1010.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!T56T!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F331899d9-b3ff-4445-9107-4bc7dc4170fd_1558x1010.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!T56T!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F331899d9-b3ff-4445-9107-4bc7dc4170fd_1558x1010.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!NUXc!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F16405ff0-1667-45da-8410-53e247daf430_1540x1002.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!NUXc!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F16405ff0-1667-45da-8410-53e247daf430_1540x1002.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!NUXc!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F16405ff0-1667-45da-8410-53e247daf430_1540x1002.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!NUXc!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F16405ff0-1667-45da-8410-53e247daf430_1540x1002.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!NUXc!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F16405ff0-1667-45da-8410-53e247daf430_1540x1002.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/16405ff0-1667-45da-8410-53e247daf430_1540x1002.png" width="1456" height="947" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/16405ff0-1667-45da-8410-53e247daf430_1540x1002.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":947,"width":1456,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":190473,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!NUXc!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F16405ff0-1667-45da-8410-53e247daf430_1540x1002.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!NUXc!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F16405ff0-1667-45da-8410-53e247daf430_1540x1002.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!NUXc!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F16405ff0-1667-45da-8410-53e247daf430_1540x1002.png 1272w, 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fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ycp8!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa4f1f0e1-b00c-4fa8-b714-ab6e5ff7c476_1536x1000.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ycp8!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa4f1f0e1-b00c-4fa8-b714-ab6e5ff7c476_1536x1000.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ycp8!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa4f1f0e1-b00c-4fa8-b714-ab6e5ff7c476_1536x1000.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ycp8!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa4f1f0e1-b00c-4fa8-b714-ab6e5ff7c476_1536x1000.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ycp8!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa4f1f0e1-b00c-4fa8-b714-ab6e5ff7c476_1536x1000.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a4f1f0e1-b00c-4fa8-b714-ab6e5ff7c476_1536x1000.png" width="1456" height="948" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a4f1f0e1-b00c-4fa8-b714-ab6e5ff7c476_1536x1000.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":948,"width":1456,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":172602,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ycp8!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa4f1f0e1-b00c-4fa8-b714-ab6e5ff7c476_1536x1000.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ycp8!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa4f1f0e1-b00c-4fa8-b714-ab6e5ff7c476_1536x1000.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ycp8!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa4f1f0e1-b00c-4fa8-b714-ab6e5ff7c476_1536x1000.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ycp8!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa4f1f0e1-b00c-4fa8-b714-ab6e5ff7c476_1536x1000.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source: <a href="https://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1753.html">RAND</a></p><p>In light of present events, how should one read these numbers? Do they tell us that the effort in Afghanistan in its early stages was too small? Or that the effort in Haiti in the 1990s was quite large? Perhaps both. </p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{"url":"https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe now","action":null,"class":null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p>For the then Senator Biden it was clear already in the 1990s that the effort in Haiti was misguided. As he <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/13/world/americas/haiti-biden-intervention.html ">notoriously remarked</a> in 1994: “If Haiti - a God awful thing to say - if Haiti, just quietly sunk into the Caribbean or rose up 300 feet, it wouldn’t matter a whole lot in terms of our interest.” </p><p>For the rest of that very revealing interview, see this account from <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-saying-haiti-doesnt-matter-1994-clip-resurfaces-after-moise-assassination-1607692">Newsweek</a>, complete with video. It says a lot about how Biden at the time viewed both American foreign policy and its relationship to American domestic politics, a questions which continues to occupy the administration today, though the term is now “foreign policy for the American middle class”. </p><p>What Biden opposed in Haiti in 1994 was an intervention that seemed to usher in a new era. </p><p>Following several years of political violence and turmoil in Haiti, under considerable pressure from the Black Caucus in Congress in 1994 the Clinton White House launched a military intervention and reconstruction effort. This was not like those after 9/11. It was not triggered by an immediate need to retaliate for an attack on the US. The intervention was driven by more general concerns. As the official historian of the <a href="https://history.state.gov/milestones/1993-2000/haiti">State Department</a> reports, “On July 31 the Security Council passed UNSCR 940, the first resolution authorizing the use of force to restore democracy for a member nation.” </p><p>The intervention in Haiti that Biden opposed was the original expression, if one can speak of such a thing, of 1990s unipolar self-confidence. It was the original “regime change” moment. In the Caribbean. In Haiti. </p><p>At first, the intervention was considered a success and Clinton was urged to consider something similar in Afghanistan too. If America brought peace and put an end to the warlord chaos it would forestall a slide towards Taliban-rule. On the Afghanistan option Clinton demurred. As the 9/11 Commission <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GPO-911REPORT/pdf/GPO-911REPORT-10.pdf">reported</a>, by the late 1990s, whilst the CIA and Justice Department were hunting Bin Ladin, “the State Department was focused more on lessening Indo-Pakistani nuclear tensions, ending the Afghan civil war, and ameliorating the Taliban’s human rights abuses than on driving out Bin Ladin. Another key actor, Marine General Anthony Zinni, the commander in chief of the U.S. Central Command, shared the State Department’s view.”</p><p>After Somalia, Haiti and Bosnia, by the late 1990s the enthusiasm for large-scale reconstruction interventions was wearing thin. It was that disillusionment which caused George W. Bush on the stump, to criticize <a href="https://www.c-span.org/video/?c4315725/user-clip-george-w-bush-nation-building">nation-building</a> and, later, to soft pedal any such ambition in Afghanistan.</p><p>On the ground in 2001-2, the Bush administration would, in fact, push for expansive reconstruction plans, but it counted on the UN and NATO to pay. America was pivoting to Iraq. And in both Iraq and Afghanistan the Bush-era strategists expected the private sector to deliver on a huge scale. Amongst the ruins, disaster capitalism would thrive. </p><p>Neither in Haiti or Afghanistan did it prove possible to realize the goals of the intervention and then to effect a clean exit. Instead, what resulted were prolonged, extensive and often highly dysfunctional engagements. Whatever the US were initially supposed to be doing, it did de facto become involved in nation-building in both places. And this engagement surged under the Obama administration, in Afghanistan in 2009 and in Haiti from 2010 following the devastating earthquake.</p><p>To trace the threads that weave Haiti and Afghanistan together in American policy and world history over the last two decades, through the Bush, Obama, Trump and Biden administrations, is far more than I can do here. </p><p>The story of the Clintons in Haiti continues down to the present. For details, see this long read in the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/oct/11/haiti-and-the-failed-promise-of-us-aid">Guardian</a> and this level-headed account from the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37826098">BBC</a>. </p><p>Salacious details aside, the “Clintons in Haiti” saga points to a more general point. State-building acquires the momentum that it does, often because it is not so much a state that is being built but a complex of para-state agencies, propped up by businesses, foreign government agencies and NGOs invested in every sense of the word in the ongoing management of the crisis.</p><p><strong>Total Aid Flows “to Haiti” Jan 2010-June 2012</strong></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SmFQ!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F63dbc5ff-4f9c-46d8-83e5-8aee0cd6e475_1156x500.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SmFQ!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F63dbc5ff-4f9c-46d8-83e5-8aee0cd6e475_1156x500.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SmFQ!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F63dbc5ff-4f9c-46d8-83e5-8aee0cd6e475_1156x500.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SmFQ!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F63dbc5ff-4f9c-46d8-83e5-8aee0cd6e475_1156x500.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SmFQ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F63dbc5ff-4f9c-46d8-83e5-8aee0cd6e475_1156x500.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/63dbc5ff-4f9c-46d8-83e5-8aee0cd6e475_1156x500.png" width="1156" height="500" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/63dbc5ff-4f9c-46d8-83e5-8aee0cd6e475_1156x500.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":500,"width":1156,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":73523,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SmFQ!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F63dbc5ff-4f9c-46d8-83e5-8aee0cd6e475_1156x500.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SmFQ!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F63dbc5ff-4f9c-46d8-83e5-8aee0cd6e475_1156x500.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SmFQ!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F63dbc5ff-4f9c-46d8-83e5-8aee0cd6e475_1156x500.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!SmFQ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F63dbc5ff-4f9c-46d8-83e5-8aee0cd6e475_1156x500.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Both in Afghanistan and Haiti the large spending figures should not be confused with money that actually stayed in place locally or was paid to the national government or local agencies. The vast majority of the money never touched the budgets of the respective national Treasuries. It simply recycled in the contracts and pay checks paid out to foreign workers on the ground. There is nothing per se incriminating or inappropriate about this. If foreign contractors actually deliver their services, then the receiving economy benefits at least from those. But it is important to understand this cycle to understand what the political economy of aid is driven by and why its impact on the ground is less than one might imagine. </p><p>If a blow by blow history is too much for now, alternatively, one could attempt a comparison based on systematic criteria, assessing points of similarity and difference. Why did Afghanistan come to occupy such a central place and Haiti fade away? Race? Terrorism? Geopolitical location? Religion? </p><p>You might say that Afghanistan matters because it is a geopolitical fracture zone, it was the source of the 2001 attack, it is Muslim and because Westerners find Hazari children adorable. On those same criteria, Haiti is classed as a second-order priority.</p><p>You might also ask, how robust is such a categorization? Imagine the gothic national security planning visions that might be spun by flipping each of those criteria. For sake of argument imagine a Pentagon planner sitting down to devise a scenario in which: “Haiti in 2031 is in the grip of an alien religious cult, harboring marauding bands of eco terrorists, attacking Western tourists across the heavily defended border to the Dominican Republic and launching drone strikes on Gulf of Mexico oil installations, or Miami, less than 700 miles away, funding themselves by smuggling the latest generation of genetically engineered ultra-addictive cocaine, in partnership with Central American cartels and Haitian diaspora connections across the urban centers of the United States”. </p><p>Haiti morphs into Black Afghanistan - a cli-fi scenario for ten years from now. </p><p>My point is not that this is a sensible exercise. My point is that if you embark on the exercise of classification and categorization you can, as we seem to be doing right now, flip “Afghanistan” into the “Haiti” category - “irrelevant, poor, chaotic, remote”. But you can also reverse the operation and turn “Haiti” into an “Afghanistan in the making”. </p><p>I use the scare quotes because the entities involved in this mental operation may have little to nothing to do with the complex realities on the ground. They are a “threat vector” characterized by a certain set of parameters. The entire exercise is framed by historical and racialized imaginings of threat and danger. And if you view the world that way it can hardly be assumed that either place will remain in a steady state for long. “Seeing like a state” can be capricious. </p><p>You don’t “need” to know more than just that terrorism, or “religious extremism” is present - check - to know whether you should care. The benefit is that you compress information. </p><p>Economic data are also a way of compressing information in an extreme form. What do the economic statistics tell us about the unlikely pairing of Haiti and Afghanistan?</p><p>I must admit that my prior information on this was poor. Life expectancy: Afghanistan v. Haiti? Higher? Lower? Kudos to you, if you do have strong priors on that comparison. Thinking about it I realized that all I knew was that both Afghanistan and Haiti were very poor. “Right at the bottom”. In my head they were simply lumped together in a crude category, a mode of thinking we should, I think, seek continually to correct in ourselves.</p><p>If you feel confident that you don’t fall into that mode of thought, tell me your best guess as to relative infant mortality, or GDP per capita in Haiti and Afghanistan - take your pick as to any relevant indicator - and I will take my hat off to you. </p><p>In all honesty, I couldn’t do much better than “life, nasty brutish and short”. Not good enough! Bad thinking. </p><p>So what can we learn from the obvious sources. World Bank, UNESCO etc? </p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{"url":"https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe now","action":null,"class":null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p>To take two basic indicators: life expectancy and maternal mortality. They both point to the fact that Afghanistan was initially a long way behind Haiti. Demographic data go back a relatively long way and they capture the extent to which Haiti was once integrated into the world economy far more directly than Afghanistan - on exploitative and unequal terms, of course - but nevertheless with productive effects.</p><p></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!UVJz!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F17b4ffaf-22f0-4fb1-a4a2-18254e8645f0_898x592.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!UVJz!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F17b4ffaf-22f0-4fb1-a4a2-18254e8645f0_898x592.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!UVJz!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F17b4ffaf-22f0-4fb1-a4a2-18254e8645f0_898x592.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!UVJz!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F17b4ffaf-22f0-4fb1-a4a2-18254e8645f0_898x592.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!UVJz!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F17b4ffaf-22f0-4fb1-a4a2-18254e8645f0_898x592.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/17b4ffaf-22f0-4fb1-a4a2-18254e8645f0_898x592.png" width="898" height="592" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/17b4ffaf-22f0-4fb1-a4a2-18254e8645f0_898x592.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":592,"width":898,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":45384,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!UVJz!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F17b4ffaf-22f0-4fb1-a4a2-18254e8645f0_898x592.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!UVJz!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F17b4ffaf-22f0-4fb1-a4a2-18254e8645f0_898x592.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!UVJz!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F17b4ffaf-22f0-4fb1-a4a2-18254e8645f0_898x592.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!UVJz!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F17b4ffaf-22f0-4fb1-a4a2-18254e8645f0_898x592.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Data Source: World Bank </p><p>Haiti’s development at least with regard to life expectancy has continued in a broadly positive direction, though at a grindingly slow pace. Afghanistan, from its terribly low base, has caught up. Despite the violence, in 2008 Afghanistan’s life-expectancy for the first time overtook that of Haiti. </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!mt2b!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4f4723fa-250a-4d7e-9176-968efd13756b_742x460.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!mt2b!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4f4723fa-250a-4d7e-9176-968efd13756b_742x460.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!mt2b!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4f4723fa-250a-4d7e-9176-968efd13756b_742x460.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!mt2b!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4f4723fa-250a-4d7e-9176-968efd13756b_742x460.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!mt2b!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4f4723fa-250a-4d7e-9176-968efd13756b_742x460.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/4f4723fa-250a-4d7e-9176-968efd13756b_742x460.png" width="742" height="460" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/4f4723fa-250a-4d7e-9176-968efd13756b_742x460.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":460,"width":742,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":51460,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!mt2b!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4f4723fa-250a-4d7e-9176-968efd13756b_742x460.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!mt2b!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4f4723fa-250a-4d7e-9176-968efd13756b_742x460.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!mt2b!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4f4723fa-250a-4d7e-9176-968efd13756b_742x460.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!mt2b!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4f4723fa-250a-4d7e-9176-968efd13756b_742x460.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source: World bank</p><p>The huge levels of maternal mortality in Afghanistan are telling. Inequalities along lines of gender are horrifyingly large in Afghanistan and they were so, long before the Taliban arose. </p><p>If you had asked me prior to conducting this exercise, where I though Haitian GDP per capita stood in relation to that of Afghanistan I would have been stumped. </p><p>What the numbers, in fact show is that despite Afghanistan’s convergence with Haiti in terms of mortality and life expectancy, it remains far behind in terms of the overall level of (measured) economic activity. </p><p>If you take GDP per capita at current exchange rates, the gap is very large indeed. </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dXQw!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5c219779-e4dc-4ca7-a351-4c66d5ce6943_1236x802.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dXQw!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5c219779-e4dc-4ca7-a351-4c66d5ce6943_1236x802.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dXQw!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5c219779-e4dc-4ca7-a351-4c66d5ce6943_1236x802.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dXQw!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5c219779-e4dc-4ca7-a351-4c66d5ce6943_1236x802.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dXQw!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5c219779-e4dc-4ca7-a351-4c66d5ce6943_1236x802.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/5c219779-e4dc-4ca7-a351-4c66d5ce6943_1236x802.png" width="1236" height="802" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/5c219779-e4dc-4ca7-a351-4c66d5ce6943_1236x802.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":802,"width":1236,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":100365,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dXQw!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5c219779-e4dc-4ca7-a351-4c66d5ce6943_1236x802.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dXQw!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5c219779-e4dc-4ca7-a351-4c66d5ce6943_1236x802.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dXQw!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5c219779-e4dc-4ca7-a351-4c66d5ce6943_1236x802.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dXQw!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5c219779-e4dc-4ca7-a351-4c66d5ce6943_1236x802.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>This represents the ability to “purchase” goods on global markets. </p><p>If you ask the question in terms of purchasing power parity, making allowance for the different internal cost of living, the gap closes somewhat, but remains very substantial.</p><p></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!URkb!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd9c5c1d1-78ed-4304-82e0-0f9acad66123_814x518.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!URkb!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd9c5c1d1-78ed-4304-82e0-0f9acad66123_814x518.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!URkb!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd9c5c1d1-78ed-4304-82e0-0f9acad66123_814x518.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!URkb!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd9c5c1d1-78ed-4304-82e0-0f9acad66123_814x518.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!URkb!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd9c5c1d1-78ed-4304-82e0-0f9acad66123_814x518.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d9c5c1d1-78ed-4304-82e0-0f9acad66123_814x518.png" width="814" height="518" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d9c5c1d1-78ed-4304-82e0-0f9acad66123_814x518.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":518,"width":814,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":45740,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!URkb!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd9c5c1d1-78ed-4304-82e0-0f9acad66123_814x518.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!URkb!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd9c5c1d1-78ed-4304-82e0-0f9acad66123_814x518.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!URkb!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd9c5c1d1-78ed-4304-82e0-0f9acad66123_814x518.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!URkb!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd9c5c1d1-78ed-4304-82e0-0f9acad66123_814x518.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>The tens of billions in aid that flowed through Afghanistan over the last twenty years, did not manage to close the gap to Haiti. A humbling comparison if there ever was on. </p><p>You could also say that despite the dysfunction, corruption and disaster that has struck Haiti over recent decades, its location and long-standing integration into the Caribbean economy seems to confer resilient advantages. At least as a first approximation. </p><p>Tragically, in the last few years, both countries have been headed in the wrong direction. </p><p>Remittances play a large part in both economies, particularly in Haiti where they run over 20 percent of GDP. To avoid distorting the comparison, the measure being used here is Gross Domestic Product, which excludes remittances. The multiplier effects that come from spending the remittances locally is captured in the data. If the comparison were based on GNP it would be even more favorable to Haiti.</p><p>Using national averages in both cases is deeply problematic not only because the quality of the numbers is suspect but because both countries are characterized by huge income and wealth inequality. In Haiti, the Gini coefficient is a staggering 0.61, where 0 is absolute equality and 1 marks the most extreme inequality. That places it alongside South Africa as one of the most unequal places on earth. The data for Afghanistan are not reliable enough to make such a calculation very meaningful. </p><p>Both Haiti and Afghanistan are characterized by a huge gap between urban and rural incomes. The majority of the city inhabitants live in informal settlements. The Poverty rate in Afghanistan and Haiti is over 50 percent in both cases. Those are widely cited as drivers of the Taliban mobilization. </p><p>Another similarity is that both Afghanistan and Haiti are extremely vulnerable to major natural disasters, both in the form of seismic shocks and the more fast-moving timescales of the Anthropocene. Afghanistan has been plagued by drought, Haiti by devastating hurricanes. </p><p>One could go on. But that would not be in the spirit of the Chartbook project which is non finito. I wanted to put this idea on the table and see how far I am able to push it for now. What would an interconnected analysis of these two places, apparently so distant from each other, mean at this moment? How can we resist both of them being pushed off into a flattening category of irrelevance, or dumped into the box of which Ashraf Ghani, now safely in the UAE, was once a great expert, i.e.“failed states".</p><p><a href="https://odi.org/en/events/fixing-failed-states-a-framework-for-rebuilding-a-fractured-world-book-launch-and-discussion-with-ashraf-ghani-and-clare-lockhart/">Here</a>, as a depressing coda, a 2008 meeting at which Ghani and his co-author Claire Lockhart discuss Haiti as an example of failed donor efforts to build an effective state. </p><p> </p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{"url":"https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe now","action":null,"class":null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p> </p><p></p><!--
{
"post_id": "40114681.top-link-12-afghanistan",
"post_date": "2021-08-17T10:41:26.751Z",
"is_published": true,
"email_sent_at": "2021-08-17T10:41:26.771Z",
"inbox_sent_at": "2021-08-17T10:41:26.771Z",
"type": "newsletter",
"audience": "everyone",
"title": "Top Links #12 Afghanistan ",
"subtitle": "How a regime falls. "
}
-->
<p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{"url":"https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe now","action":null,"class":null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p><strong>How a regime falls:</strong></p><p><strong>From inside Afghanistan’s embassy in India, before it was deleted:</strong></p><div data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM" class="tweet" data-attrs="{"url":"https://twitter.com/james_oaten/status/1427076574478704644","full_text":"This tweet has been deleted. But the journalist in me was too quick. Screenshot below. <span class=\"tweet-fake-link\">#Afghanistan</span> <span class=\"tweet-fake-link\">#Taliban</span> ","username":"james_oaten","name":"James Oaten","date":"Mon Aug 16 01:15:43 +0000 2021","photos":[{"img_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/media/E83-f_fUUAEUXsM.jpg","link_url":"https://t.co/TZtG4sBkdV","alt_text":null}],"quoted_tweet":{},"retweet_count":2922,"like_count":11739,"expanded_url":{},"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":false}"><a class="tweet-link-top" href="https://twitter.com/james_oaten/status/1427076574478704644" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-header"><img class="tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/james_oaten.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @james_oaten"><div class="tweet-header-text"><span class="tweet-author-name">James Oaten </span><span class="tweet-author-handle">@james_oaten</span></div></div><div class="tweet-text">This tweet has been deleted. But the journalist in me was too quick. Screenshot below. <span class="tweet-fake-link">#Afghanistan</span> <span class="tweet-fake-link">#Taliban</span> </div><div class="tweet-photos-container one"><div class="tweet-photo-wrapper "><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!5AIj!,w_600,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FE83-f_fUUAEUXsM.jpg"><img class="tweet-photo" src="https://pbs.substack.com/media/E83-f_fUUAEUXsM.jpg" alt="Image"></picture></div></div></a><a class="tweet-link-bottom" href="https://twitter.com/james_oaten/status/1427076574478704644" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-footer"><span class="tweet-date">1:15 AM ∙ Aug 16, 2021</span><hr><div class="tweet-ufi"><span href="https://twitter.com/james_oaten/status/1427076574478704644/likes" class="likes"><span class="like-count">11,739</span>Likes</span><span href="https://twitter.com/james_oaten/status/1427076574478704644/retweets" class="retweets"><span class="rt-count">2,922</span>Retweets</span></div></div></a></div><p> <strong>A central banker escapes</strong> </p><div data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM" class="tweet" data-attrs="{"url":"https://twitter.com/aahmady/status/1427265049668636674?s=20","full_text":"1/The collapse of the Government in Afghanistan this past week was so swift and complete - it was disorienting and difficult to comprehend.\n\nThis is how the events seemed to proceed from my perspective as Central Bank Governor.","username":"aahmady","name":"Ajmal Ahmady","date":"Mon Aug 16 13:44:39 +0000 2021","photos":[],"quoted_tweet":{},"retweet_count":6634,"like_count":13535,"expanded_url":{},"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":false}"><a class="tweet-link-top" href="https://twitter.com/aahmady/status/1427265049668636674?s=20" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-header"><img class="tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/aahmady.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @aahmady"><div class="tweet-header-text"><span class="tweet-author-name">Ajmal Ahmady </span><span class="tweet-author-handle">@aahmady</span></div></div><div class="tweet-text">1/The collapse of the Government in Afghanistan this past week was so swift and complete - it was disorienting and difficult to comprehend.
This is how the events seemed to proceed from my perspective as Central Bank Governor.</div></a><a class="tweet-link-bottom" href="https://twitter.com/aahmady/status/1427265049668636674?s=20" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-footer"><span class="tweet-date">1:44 PM ∙ Aug 16, 2021</span><hr><div class="tweet-ufi"><span href="https://twitter.com/aahmady/status/1427265049668636674?s=20/likes" class="likes"><span class="like-count">13,535</span>Likes</span><span href="https://twitter.com/aahmady/status/1427265049668636674?s=20/retweets" class="retweets"><span class="rt-count">6,634</span>Retweets</span></div></div></a></div><p>Ahmady is American-raised. Alum of UCLA & Harvard. Experience as US Treasury, World Bank, private equity and asset management and Booze Allen Hamilton.</p><p><strong>Background: the anti-Taliban campaign and why it failed</strong></p><p>Still the best podcast I have heard, the UK security expert Paul Rogers on Politics Theory Other. Has stood up for almost a week. </p><div class="soundcloud-wrap" data-attrs="{"url":"https://api.soundcloud.com/tracks/1105451398","title":"The Taliban on the verge of victory w/ Paul Rogers by Politics Theory Other","description":"Paul Rogers joins PTO to talk about the Taliban's advance across Afghanistan and the possibility of an imminent takeover of the capital Kabul. We spoke about why the Taliban have been so successful against the more numerous and better equipped and supported Afghan government forces, what the Taliban's victory might mean for India, Pakistan and China, and finally we discussed how history will judge Western military intervention in the country.","thumbnail_url":"https://i1.sndcdn.com/artworks-vTU6RRUVOO1mqSVE-LSmyKw-t500x500.jpg","author_name":"Politics Theory Other","author_url":"https://soundcloud.com/poltheoryother","targetUrl":""}" data-component-name="SoundcloudToDOM"><iframe src="https://w.soundcloud.com/player/?auto_play=false&buying=false&liking=false&download=false&sharing=false&show_artwork=true&show_comments=false&show_playcount=false&show_user=true&hide_related=true&visual=false&start_track=0&url=https%3A%2F%2Fapi.soundcloud.com%2Ftracks%2F1105451398" frameborder="0" gesture="media" scrolling="no" allowfullscreen="true"></iframe></div><p><strong>Background: Afghan politics</strong></p><p>From one of the best economic historians on twitter a fantastic rundown on ethnic politics of Afghanistan.</p><div data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM" class="tweet" data-attrs="{"url":"https://twitter.com/pseudoerasmus/status/1427244568899117060","full_text":"Afghanistan enters the news cycle, and there are always people rehashing the 1980s….\n\nPeriodic reminder:\n\nTaliban ≠ the mujahiddin of the 1980s.\n\nIf anything, the Taliban have just driven from power the remnants/descendants of the mujahiddin/ex-communist coalition of the 1990s","username":"pseudoerasmus","name":"Pseudoerasmus","date":"Mon Aug 16 12:23:16 +0000 2021","photos":[],"quoted_tweet":{},"retweet_count":60,"like_count":238,"expanded_url":{},"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":true}"><a class="tweet-link-top" href="https://twitter.com/pseudoerasmus/status/1427244568899117060" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-header"><img class="tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/pseudoerasmus.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @pseudoerasmus" loading="lazy"><div class="tweet-header-text"><span class="tweet-author-name">Pseudoerasmus </span><span class="tweet-author-handle">@pseudoerasmus</span></div></div><div class="tweet-text">Afghanistan enters the news cycle, and there are always people rehashing the 1980s….
Periodic reminder:
Taliban ≠ the mujahiddin of the 1980s.
If anything, the Taliban have just driven from power the remnants/descendants of the mujahiddin/ex-communist coalition of the 1990s</div></a><a class="tweet-link-bottom" href="https://twitter.com/pseudoerasmus/status/1427244568899117060" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-footer"><span class="tweet-date">12:23 PM ∙ Aug 16, 2021</span><hr><div class="tweet-ufi"><span href="https://twitter.com/pseudoerasmus/status/1427244568899117060/likes" class="likes"><span class="like-count">238</span>Likes</span><span href="https://twitter.com/pseudoerasmus/status/1427244568899117060/retweets" class="retweets"><span class="rt-count">60</span>Retweets</span></div></div></a></div><p><strong>The Afghan Opium business and the failure of suppression</strong></p><p>Great thread on the microeconomics of opium farming. </p><div data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM" class="tweet" data-attrs="{"url":"https://twitter.com/jeffreypclemens/status/1426930889271877633?s=20","full_text":"An underrated mistake in US policy in Afghanistan was its long-running effort to suppress the cultivation of opium poppy and, in turn, the production of heroin and other opiates.\n\nA thread. 1/19","username":"jeffreypclemens","name":"Jeffrey P. Clemens","date":"Sun Aug 15 15:36:49 +0000 2021","photos":[],"quoted_tweet":{},"retweet_count":773,"like_count":3095,"expanded_url":{},"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":true}"><a class="tweet-link-top" href="https://twitter.com/jeffreypclemens/status/1426930889271877633?s=20" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-header"><img class="tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/jeffreypclemens.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @jeffreypclemens" loading="lazy"><div class="tweet-header-text"><span class="tweet-author-name">Jeffrey P. Clemens </span><span class="tweet-author-handle">@jeffreypclemens</span></div></div><div class="tweet-text">An underrated mistake in US policy in Afghanistan was its long-running effort to suppress the cultivation of opium poppy and, in turn, the production of heroin and other opiates.
A thread. 1/19</div></a><a class="tweet-link-bottom" href="https://twitter.com/jeffreypclemens/status/1426930889271877633?s=20" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-footer"><span class="tweet-date">3:36 PM ∙ Aug 15, 2021</span><hr><div class="tweet-ufi"><span href="https://twitter.com/jeffreypclemens/status/1426930889271877633?s=20/likes" class="likes"><span class="like-count">3,095</span>Likes</span><span href="https://twitter.com/jeffreypclemens/status/1426930889271877633?s=20/retweets" class="retweets"><span class="rt-count">773</span>Retweets</span></div></div></a></div><p><strong>If you are finding Top Links useful, subscribe to receive the regular emails.</strong></p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{"url":"https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe now","action":null,"class":null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p><strong>Context (1): On Russia’s relaxed view</strong></p><p>Why is Russia so <a href="https://www.ridl.io/en/the-taliban-has-reached-kabul-why-is-moscow-so-calm/">calm</a> about the Taliban? </p><p>Mark Galeotti’s take in the <em><a href="https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/08/16/moscow-watches-kabuls-fall-with-some-satisfaction-much-concern-a74805">Moscow Times</a></em>.</p><p><strong>Context (2): The Indian view on China, Xinjiang and Afghanistan</strong></p><div id="youtube2-8x8XvZ28-yw" class="youtube-wrap" data-attrs="{"videoId":"8x8XvZ28-yw","startTime":null,"endTime":null}" data-component-name="Youtube2ToDOM"><div class="youtube-inner"><iframe src="https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/8x8XvZ28-yw?rel=0&autoplay=0&showinfo=0&enablejsapi=0" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" gesture="media" allow="autoplay; fullscreen" allowautoplay="true" allowfullscreen="true" width="728" height="409"></iframe></div></div><p><strong>The price of M16s:</strong></p><p>Well if you were small time arms dealer with a cache of M16, the hundreds of thousands of guns the Afghan army is throwing away are bad news for your balance sheet!</p><div data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM" class="tweet" data-attrs="{"url":"https://twitter.com/CalibreObscura/status/1426595888500199425","full_text":"<span class=\"tweet-fake-link\">#Afghanistan</span> I have enquired as to the value of an M16A4 such as this on the (offline) black market.\n\nJun 18th 2021: $2410\nJuly 2nd 2021: $2375\n𝗔𝘂𝗴 𝟭𝟰𝘁𝗵 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟭: $𝟭𝟱𝟬𝟬\n\n37.75% price drop in the value of fresh rifles in ~2 months. Been most dramatic in past 3ish weeks. ","username":"CalibreObscura","name":"Cᴀʟɪʙʀᴇ Oʙsᴄᴜʀᴀ","date":"Sat Aug 14 17:25:39 +0000 2021","photos":[],"quoted_tweet":{"full_text":"#Balochistan: An exclusive look at a fresh and extremely clean FN M16A4 purchased from #Afghanistan recently.\n\nThis former ANA gun was sold on by the Taliban to the BLA and cost just over $2400. Lots of people not mentioning 2nd &amp; 3rd order effects as regards proliferation. https://t.co/CoRekyuBOR","username":"CalibreObscura","name":"Cᴀʟɪʙʀᴇ Oʙsᴄᴜʀᴀ"},"retweet_count":111,"like_count":303,"expanded_url":{},"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":true}"><a class="tweet-link-top" href="https://twitter.com/CalibreObscura/status/1426595888500199425" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-header"><img class="tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/CalibreObscura.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @CalibreObscura" loading="lazy"><div class="tweet-header-text"><span class="tweet-author-name">Cᴀʟɪʙʀᴇ Oʙsᴄᴜʀᴀ </span><span class="tweet-author-handle">@CalibreObscura</span></div></div><div class="tweet-text"><span class="tweet-fake-link">#Afghanistan</span> I have enquired as to the value of an M16A4 such as this on the (offline) black market.
Jun 18th 2021: $2410
July 2nd 2021: $2375
𝗔𝘂𝗴 𝟭𝟰𝘁𝗵 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟭: $𝟭𝟱𝟬𝟬
37.75% price drop in the value of fresh rifles in ~2 months. Been most dramatic in past 3ish weeks. </div><div class="quote-tweet"><div class="quote-tweet-header"><img class="quote-tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_40/CalibreObscura.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @CalibreObscura" loading="lazy"><div class="quote-tweet-header-text"><span class="quote-tweet-name">Cᴀʟɪʙʀᴇ Oʙsᴄᴜʀᴀ </span><span class="quote-tweet-username">@CalibreObscura</span></div></div>#Balochistan: An exclusive look at a fresh and extremely clean FN M16A4 purchased from #Afghanistan recently.
This former ANA gun was sold on by the Taliban to the BLA and cost just over $2400. Lots of people not mentioning 2nd & 3rd order effects as regards proliferation. https://t.co/CoRekyuBOR</div></a><a class="tweet-link-bottom" href="https://twitter.com/CalibreObscura/status/1426595888500199425" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-footer"><span class="tweet-date">5:25 PM ∙ Aug 14, 2021</span><hr><div class="tweet-ufi"><span href="https://twitter.com/CalibreObscura/status/1426595888500199425/likes" class="likes"><span class="like-count">303</span>Likes</span><span href="https://twitter.com/CalibreObscura/status/1426595888500199425/retweets" class="retweets"><span class="rt-count">111</span>Retweets</span></div></div></a></div><p><strong>Bond markets and the Taliban</strong></p><p>As the region is rocked by the collapse in Afghanistan, both <em><a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/taliban-gains-give-investors-cause-concern-beyond-afghanistan-2021-08-14/">Reuters</a></em> and the <em><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/1f8e5d82-152a-456e-b6c9-4e2fe8b74b68">FT </a></em>reported pressure in the bond markets of Pakistan and Uzbekistan.</p><p>So far it is Pakistan’s <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pakistan-2036-eurobond-drops-nine-074047109.html">2036 eurobond</a> that is worst affected</p><p>If it spreads much beyond that particular debt issue, it will show up in the data <a href="http://www.worldgovernmentbonds.com/country/pakistan/">here</a>. </p><p><strong>BHL</strong></p><p>Most commentators responded in fairly predictable ways to events yesterday. Not so the French philosophizer Bernard-Henri Lévy. He was on TV to proclaim not only that the Taliban are not much to speak of as a military force, but that the people who (had) actually taking power in Afghanistan were the emancipated young women. </p><div data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM" class="tweet" data-attrs="{"url":"https://twitter.com/evil_SDOC/status/1427315561244110852","full_text":"«Les Taliban n’étaient pas en train de prendre le pouvoir, c’est faux ! Celles qui étaient en train de prendre le pouvoir, c’est les femmes qui s’étaient prises à rêver […] d’égalité et de liberté».\nBelle analyse au scalpel, sans doute rédigée à la lueur des balles traçantes. https://t.co/PonUAoVV7i","username":"evil_SDOC","name":"Poète dubitatif","date":"Mon Aug 16 17:05:22 +0000 2021","photos":[],"quoted_tweet":{"full_text":"Bernard-Henri Lévy: \"Les talibans sont des bons terroristes mais sont des mauvais soldats\" https://t.co/qnunx5s6kE","username":"BFMTV","name":"BFMTV"},"retweet_count":14,"like_count":45,"expanded_url":{},"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":true}"><a class="tweet-link-top" href="https://twitter.com/evil_SDOC/status/1427315561244110852" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-header"><img class="tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/evil_SDOC.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @evil_SDOC" loading="lazy"><div class="tweet-header-text"><span class="tweet-author-name">Poète dubitatif </span><span class="tweet-author-handle">@evil_SDOC</span></div></div><div class="tweet-text">«Les Taliban n’étaient pas en train de prendre le pouvoir, c’est faux ! Celles qui étaient en train de prendre le pouvoir, c’est les femmes qui s’étaient prises à rêver […] d’égalité et de liberté».
Belle analyse au scalpel, sans doute rédigée à la lueur des balles traçantes. https://t.co/PonUAoVV7i</div><div class="quote-tweet"><div class="quote-tweet-header"><img class="quote-tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_40/BFMTV.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @BFMTV" loading="lazy"><div class="quote-tweet-header-text"><span class="quote-tweet-name">BFMTV </span><span class="quote-tweet-username">@BFMTV</span></div></div>Bernard-Henri Lévy: "Les talibans sont des bons terroristes mais sont des mauvais soldats" https://t.co/qnunx5s6kE</div></a><a class="tweet-link-bottom" href="https://twitter.com/evil_SDOC/status/1427315561244110852" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-footer"><span class="tweet-date">5:05 PM ∙ Aug 16, 2021</span><hr><div class="tweet-ufi"><span href="https://twitter.com/evil_SDOC/status/1427315561244110852/likes" class="likes"><span class="like-count">45</span>Likes</span><span href="https://twitter.com/evil_SDOC/status/1427315561244110852/retweets" class="retweets"><span class="rt-count">14</span>Retweets</span></div></div></a></div><p>BHL loves himself a war and a bit of cleavage. </p><div data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM" class="tweet" data-attrs="{"url":"https://twitter.com/DanielZamoraV/status/1427203461066772483?s=20","full_text":"When BHL was dressed as a mujahideen ","username":"DanielZamoraV","name":"Daniel Zamora Vargas","date":"Mon Aug 16 09:39:55 +0000 2021","photos":[{"img_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/media/E85xmaIWUAI9fCG.jpg","link_url":"https://t.co/jcKex7jihc","alt_text":null}],"quoted_tweet":{},"retweet_count":66,"like_count":359,"expanded_url":{},"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":true}"><a class="tweet-link-top" href="https://twitter.com/DanielZamoraV/status/1427203461066772483?s=20" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-header"><img class="tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/DanielZamoraV.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @DanielZamoraV" loading="lazy"><div class="tweet-header-text"><span class="tweet-author-name">Daniel Zamora Vargas </span><span class="tweet-author-handle">@DanielZamoraV</span></div></div><div class="tweet-text">When BHL was dressed as a mujahideen </div><div class="tweet-photos-container one"><div class="tweet-photo-wrapper "><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Inez!,w_600,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FE85xmaIWUAI9fCG.jpg"><img class="tweet-photo" src="https://pbs.substack.com/media/E85xmaIWUAI9fCG.jpg" alt="Image" loading="lazy"></picture></div></div></a><a class="tweet-link-bottom" href="https://twitter.com/DanielZamoraV/status/1427203461066772483?s=20" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-footer"><span class="tweet-date">9:39 AM ∙ Aug 16, 2021</span><hr><div class="tweet-ufi"><span href="https://twitter.com/DanielZamoraV/status/1427203461066772483?s=20/likes" class="likes"><span class="like-count">359</span>Likes</span><span href="https://twitter.com/DanielZamoraV/status/1427203461066772483?s=20/retweets" class="retweets"><span class="rt-count">66</span>Retweets</span></div></div></a></div><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{"url":"https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/top-link-12-afghanistan?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share","text":"Share","action":null,"class":null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/top-link-12-afghanistan?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share"><span>Share</span></a></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><!--
{
"post_id": "40215219.top-links-13-financing-afghanistans",
"post_date": "2021-08-20T11:17:29.166Z",
"is_published": true,
"email_sent_at": "2021-08-20T11:17:29.189Z",
"inbox_sent_at": "2021-08-20T11:17:29.189Z",
"type": "newsletter",
"audience": "everyone",
"title": "Top Links #13 Financing Afghanistan's new regime and the struggle over its national exchange reserve.",
"subtitle": "The Taliban, a central banker and the problem of money. "
}
-->
<p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{"url":"https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe now","action":null,"class":null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p>As the Taliban establish their grip on power in Kabul, the question of finances rears its head. This matters so much, because the Afghan state has, in the recent past, been heavily dependent on foreign aid. The aid pays not just for government spending. Even more importantly it pays Afghanistan’s import bill. </p><p><strong>Foreign exchange & the central bank reserves</strong></p><p>Covering the import bill is more urgent, because with enough men with guns behind it, a state can tax its population and solve the problem of state finance. The Afghan Army is currently paid for largely by foreign donors. We do not doubt that the Taliban will find ways of maintaining its fighting force in being. It cannot use those same method to pay for foreign imports. And Afghanistan has an appetite for imports far in excess of what its exports pay for. </p><p></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4wB6!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F38aeadef-d85a-4239-b5ad-d06f9299491f_722x430.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4wB6!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F38aeadef-d85a-4239-b5ad-d06f9299491f_722x430.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4wB6!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F38aeadef-d85a-4239-b5ad-d06f9299491f_722x430.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4wB6!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F38aeadef-d85a-4239-b5ad-d06f9299491f_722x430.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4wB6!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F38aeadef-d85a-4239-b5ad-d06f9299491f_722x430.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/38aeadef-d85a-4239-b5ad-d06f9299491f_722x430.png" width="722" height="430" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/38aeadef-d85a-4239-b5ad-d06f9299491f_722x430.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":430,"width":722,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":41110,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":false,"topImage":true,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4wB6!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F38aeadef-d85a-4239-b5ad-d06f9299491f_722x430.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4wB6!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F38aeadef-d85a-4239-b5ad-d06f9299491f_722x430.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4wB6!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F38aeadef-d85a-4239-b5ad-d06f9299491f_722x430.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4wB6!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F38aeadef-d85a-4239-b5ad-d06f9299491f_722x430.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p></p><p>To pay for imports you need hard currency. The most obvious way an economy generates hard currency is through exports (NB: this is a short hand. Actually, businesses generate hard currency through foreign sales, which they may or may not wish to exchange for local currency, but lets not get into the complexities of this at this point). Alternatively you can borrow the foreign exchange, or, if you are a poor country, receive it in aid. Relative to its exports Afghanistan’s trade deficit has been huge. The gap has been closed by aid. Under Taliban rule, far less aid is likely to flow to Afghanistan. </p><p>It is this gap, which makes the question of who controls the reserves of the Afghan central bank and its holdings of foreign currency and gold so critical. Before we get to that a personal message about Chartbook. </p><p><strong>An invitation</strong></p><p>I love putting Chartbook together. But it takes a lot of work. I am delighted that it goes out free to many readers, but if you can afford to pitch in please consider doing so. </p><p>What do you get in return? Great karma and some goodies. </p><p>Top Links normally goes out in the full version only to paying subscribers. If you are enjoying this and would like to get the full emails regularly, sign up for one of the paying options.</p><p>There are three types of subscription:</p><ol><li><p>The <strong>annual subscription: $50 annually</strong></p></li><li><p>The <strong>standard monthly subscription: $5 monthly -</strong> which gives you a bit more flexibility.</p></li><li><p><strong>Founders club:$ 120 annua</strong>lly, or another amount at your discretion - for those who really love Chartbook Newsletter, or read it in a professional setting in which you regularly pay for subscriptions, please consider signing up for the <strong>Founders Club</strong>.</p></li></ol><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{"url":"https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe now","action":null,"class":null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p>Other benefits will include a series of reading group sessions I will be organizing with subscribers following the release of <em>Shutdown</em> in the fall.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!40vy!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F497a99ee-3aa7-4ca4-a3ff-18b5b4b64ff2_566x854.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!40vy!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F497a99ee-3aa7-4ca4-a3ff-18b5b4b64ff2_566x854.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!40vy!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F497a99ee-3aa7-4ca4-a3ff-18b5b4b64ff2_566x854.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!40vy!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F497a99ee-3aa7-4ca4-a3ff-18b5b4b64ff2_566x854.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!40vy!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F497a99ee-3aa7-4ca4-a3ff-18b5b4b64ff2_566x854.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/497a99ee-3aa7-4ca4-a3ff-18b5b4b64ff2_566x854.png" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/497a99ee-3aa7-4ca4-a3ff-18b5b4b64ff2_566x854.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":null,"width":null,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":546745,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!40vy!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F497a99ee-3aa7-4ca4-a3ff-18b5b4b64ff2_566x854.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!40vy!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F497a99ee-3aa7-4ca4-a3ff-18b5b4b64ff2_566x854.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!40vy!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F497a99ee-3aa7-4ca4-a3ff-18b5b4b64ff2_566x854.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!40vy!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F497a99ee-3aa7-4ca4-a3ff-18b5b4b64ff2_566x854.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Back to business</p><p><strong>The Afghan exchange reserves</strong></p><p>As the <em><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2021/08/17/treasury-taliban-money-afghanistan/">Washington Post</a></em> reports: “The Afghanistan central bank held $9.4 billion in reserve assets as of April, according to the International Monetary Fund. That amounts to roughly one-third of the country’s annual economic output. The vast majority of those reserves are not currently held in Afghanistan, one of the people familiar with the matter said. Among those, billions of dollars are kept in the United States, although the precise amount is unclear.”</p><p>An urgent conversation about the whereabouts of the $9.4 billion unfolded on twitter in recent days. </p><div data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM" class="tweet" data-attrs="{"url":"https://twitter.com/jp_koning/status/1427657102630301696","full_text":"Afghanistan's central bank, da Afghanistan Bank, holds 703,005 ounces of gold, all deposited at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. That's worth US$1.25 billion. It's a safe guess that with the Taliban taking over this gold will be frozen.\n\nSource: <a class=\"tweet-url\" href=\"https://dab.gov.af/sites/default/files/2021-04/DA%20AFGHANISTAN%20BANK%20CONSOLIDATED%20FINANCIAL%20STATEMENTS%20FOR%20THE%20YEAR%20ENDED%20QAWS%20301399%20%28DECEMBER%20202020%29final.pdf\">dab.gov.af/sites/default/…</a> ","username":"jp_koning","name":"John Paul Koning","date":"Tue Aug 17 15:42:32 +0000 2021","photos":[{"img_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/media/E9AOcUzXEAE6QcZ.png","link_url":"https://t.co/xxqImhtCeJ","alt_text":null}],"quoted_tweet":{},"retweet_count":15,"like_count":50,"expanded_url":{},"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":true}"><a class="tweet-link-top" href="https://twitter.com/jp_koning/status/1427657102630301696" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-header"><img class="tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/jp_koning.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @jp_koning" loading="lazy"><div class="tweet-header-text"><span class="tweet-author-name">John Paul Koning </span><span class="tweet-author-handle">@jp_koning</span></div></div><div class="tweet-text">Afghanistan's central bank, da Afghanistan Bank, holds 703,005 ounces of gold, all deposited at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. That's worth US$1.25 billion. It's a safe guess that with the Taliban taking over this gold will be frozen.
Source: <a class="tweet-url" href="https://dab.gov.af/sites/default/files/2021-04/DA%20AFGHANISTAN%20BANK%20CONSOLIDATED%20FINANCIAL%20STATEMENTS%20FOR%20THE%20YEAR%20ENDED%20QAWS%20301399%20%28DECEMBER%20202020%29final.pdf" target="_blank">dab.gov.af/sites/default/…</a> </div><div class="tweet-photos-container one"><div class="tweet-photo-wrapper "><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!euIF!,w_600,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FE9AOcUzXEAE6QcZ.png"><img class="tweet-photo" src="https://pbs.substack.com/media/E9AOcUzXEAE6QcZ.png" alt="Image" loading="lazy"></picture></div></div></a><a class="tweet-link-bottom" href="https://twitter.com/jp_koning/status/1427657102630301696" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-footer"><span class="tweet-date">3:42 PM ∙ Aug 17, 2021</span><hr><div class="tweet-ufi"><span href="https://twitter.com/jp_koning/status/1427657102630301696/likes" class="likes"><span class="like-count">50</span>Likes</span><span href="https://twitter.com/jp_koning/status/1427657102630301696/retweets" class="retweets"><span class="rt-count">15</span>Retweets</span></div></div></a></div><p>Afghan’s former central bank boss, Ajmal Ahmady, whose escape from Kabul we followed by way of twitter earlier this week, was interviewed by phone by the <em>FT</em> and he confirmed that the reserves were held outside the country. </p><div data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM" class="tweet" data-attrs="{"url":"https://twitter.com/aahmady/status/1427883009164955649?s=20","full_text":"This thread is to clarify the location of DAB (Central Bank of Afghanistan) international reserves\n\nI am writing this because I have been told Taliban are asking DAB staff about location of assets\n\nIf this is true - it is clear they urgently need to add an economist on their team","username":"aahmady","name":"Ajmal Ahmady","date":"Wed Aug 18 06:40:12 +0000 2021","photos":[],"quoted_tweet":{},"retweet_count":3374,"like_count":8736,"expanded_url":{},"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":true}"><a class="tweet-link-top" href="https://twitter.com/aahmady/status/1427883009164955649?s=20" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-header"><img class="tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/aahmady.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @aahmady" loading="lazy"><div class="tweet-header-text"><span class="tweet-author-name">Ajmal Ahmady </span><span class="tweet-author-handle">@aahmady</span></div></div><div class="tweet-text">This thread is to clarify the location of DAB (Central Bank of Afghanistan) international reserves
I am writing this because I have been told Taliban are asking DAB staff about location of assets
If this is true - it is clear they urgently need to add an economist on their team</div></a><a class="tweet-link-bottom" href="https://twitter.com/aahmady/status/1427883009164955649?s=20" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-footer"><span class="tweet-date">6:40 AM ∙ Aug 18, 2021</span><hr><div class="tweet-ufi"><span href="https://twitter.com/aahmady/status/1427883009164955649?s=20/likes" class="likes"><span class="like-count">8,736</span>Likes</span><span href="https://twitter.com/aahmady/status/1427883009164955649?s=20/retweets" class="retweets"><span class="rt-count">3,374</span>Retweets</span></div></div></a></div><p>As Ahmady concluded his <a href="https://twitter.com/aahmady/status/1427883026256736256?s=20">summary</a>:</p><p>“Therefore, my base case would be the following: - Treasury freezes assets - Taliban have to implement capital controls and limit dollar access - Currency will depreciate - Inflation will rise as currency pass through is very high - This will hurt the poor as food prices increase.”</p><p><strong>If you find Chartbook valuable, why not share with a friend:</strong></p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{"url":"https://adamtooze.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share","text":"Share Chartbook","action":null,"class":null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share"><span>Share Chartbook</span></a></p><p><strong>Depreciation</strong></p><p>According to <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/18/business/afghanistan-currency-taliban/index.html">CNN</a>, the Afghani has been trading at a deep discount to the dollar, falling to as low as 100 to the dollar on Saturday before settling around 86.</p><p>At the end of 2020, as this <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/18/business/afghanistan-currency-taliban/index.html">Bloomberg graphic</a> shows, it was trading around 77 to the dollar. This is clearly a steep depreciation, but not yet a collapse. </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BDU1!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F524c83ba-12bb-495d-b9da-efff0dda33f6_1376x832.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BDU1!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F524c83ba-12bb-495d-b9da-efff0dda33f6_1376x832.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BDU1!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F524c83ba-12bb-495d-b9da-efff0dda33f6_1376x832.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BDU1!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F524c83ba-12bb-495d-b9da-efff0dda33f6_1376x832.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BDU1!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F524c83ba-12bb-495d-b9da-efff0dda33f6_1376x832.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/524c83ba-12bb-495d-b9da-efff0dda33f6_1376x832.png" width="1376" height="832" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/524c83ba-12bb-495d-b9da-efff0dda33f6_1376x832.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":832,"width":1376,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":402393,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BDU1!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F524c83ba-12bb-495d-b9da-efff0dda33f6_1376x832.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BDU1!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F524c83ba-12bb-495d-b9da-efff0dda33f6_1376x832.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BDU1!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F524c83ba-12bb-495d-b9da-efff0dda33f6_1376x832.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BDU1!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F524c83ba-12bb-495d-b9da-efff0dda33f6_1376x832.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p><strong>Cutting off the dollars</strong></p><p>“Mr. Ahmady”, of the Afghan central bank told the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-halted-dollar-shipments-to-afghanistan-to-keep-cash-out-of-talibans-hands-11629233621">WSJ</a>, “that bank officials began reducing the amount of cash, including U.S. dollars, held at bank branches in provincial centers earlier this month amid concerns over the Taliban’s advance. By the time the first major provincial capital fell to the Taliban nearly two weeks ago, nearly all U.S. dollars had been repatriated, he said. “During this entire period, no dollars fell into the hands of Taliban before Kabul fell,” Mr. Ahmady said. “All of it was secured.”</p><p>Now the US administration is working to prevent the new power holders in Kabul benefiting from a $450 million issuance of Special Drawing Rights, which the IMF is preparing in the coming days. </p><p><strong>Planeloads of cash:</strong></p><p>This from <a href="http://Afghanistan's previous government, we have to say it was never flush, but it did regularly receive planeloads of cash from the US government and it was used to pay salaries of officials and keep the wheels of government just turning. There were bulk shipments of dollars expected as late as last Sunday, but it never arrived. How important is hard currency? Will the end of that infusion of cash be a big shock for Afghanistan's economy?">Brookings:</a></p><p>“Afghanistan's previous government, we have to say it was never flush, but it did regularly receive planeloads of cash from the US government and it was used to pay salaries of officials and keep the wheels of government just turning. There were bulk shipments of dollars expected as late as last Sunday, but it never arrived.”</p><p><strong>Ajmal Ahmady - a rejected central bank governor </strong></p><p>The tweets by Afghan central banker Ahmady have made him into something of a celebrity witness to the collapse of the Ghani regime. What is less often noted is Ahmady’s own position. He is reputed to be engaged to ex-President Ghani’s daughter. His appointment by Ghani went hand in hand with what appeared to be a politically motivated purge of the central bank and in December 2020 Ahmady’s nomination was rejected by a large majority of the Afghan parliament. </p><p>This report from <em><a href="https://www.centralbanking.com/central-banks/governance/7720661/is-the-integrity-of-afghanistans-central-bank-under-threat">Central Banking</a></em> is a fascinating source, also on the last time that the Taliban were in charge at the Afghan central bank. </p><p>Obviously, Afghanistan is rife with corruption and its politics is bitterly factional. It is a society in which accusations of corruption are easily instrumentalized. Ahmady came into the central bank wielding massive allegations of corruption against senior staff that took many by surprise. <em>Central Banking</em> is a serious source and they are are unable to arbitrate the issue to their satisfaction. In any case, if you want to have some idea of whose commentary you are following on twitter, the piece in <em>Central Banking</em> is an extraordinary mine of information. </p><p><strong>Remittances and Western Union </strong></p><p>Apart from official reserves and exports, another important source of foreign exchange are remittances from the Afghan diaspora. <strong>Remittances amount to nearly 4% of Afghanistan’s gross domestic product. But how does the money reach Afghanistan? </strong></p><p>Afghanistan has a famous network of informal money changers. But as far as western banking agencies are concerned, Afghanistan is now a no go area. <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-to-help-people-in-afghanistan-as-western-union-suspends-money-transfers-into-the-country-11629225525">Western Union</a> ceased services to Afghanistan earlier in the week.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{"url":"https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe now","action":null,"class":null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p><strong>China & India</strong></p><p>One possible source of support could be China. It will be interesting to see how long it takes before finance begins to be an issue in relations between Kabul and Beijing.</p><p>One American reading is that China may be principally concerned with the $282 billion that it has <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/how-afghanistan-snagschina-ina-282-billion-creditor-trap/2021/08/18/0a5995b4-007d-11ec-87e0-7e07bd9ce270_story.html">invested in the One Belt One Road projects</a> that span Afghanistan and are anchored in Pakistan.</p><p>In neighboring India there is already <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/with-taliban-in-power-china-eyes-lucrative-rare-earth-mines-in-afghanistan-121081900984_1.html">fevered speculation</a> about possible investment deals </p><p><strong>Taliban tolls</strong></p><p>Foreign currency is likely to be a serious issue for the Taliban regime, but as far as domestic taxation is concerned, the Taliban have a considerable track record. </p><p>This <a href="https://www.economist.com/asia/2019/05/18/why-afghanistans-government-is-losing-the-war-with-the-taliban">Economist</a> article gives a vivid description of their system of transport tolls. </p><p><strong>Taliban economics</strong></p><p>This <a href="https://l4p.odi.org/assets/images/L4P-Nimroz-study_main-report-13.08.21.pdf">remarkable report</a> by David Mansfield and Graeme Smith published by the ODI think tank gives a deep insight into the way in which the Taliban have recently been taxing the local economy in one Iranian border region. As you can see, its revenue flow is dominated not by illegal drugs but by trade in fuel and border transit. </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zZ1b!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffdf3675f-00d1-44a9-8a21-38cae72471be_740x820.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zZ1b!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffdf3675f-00d1-44a9-8a21-38cae72471be_740x820.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zZ1b!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffdf3675f-00d1-44a9-8a21-38cae72471be_740x820.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zZ1b!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffdf3675f-00d1-44a9-8a21-38cae72471be_740x820.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zZ1b!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffdf3675f-00d1-44a9-8a21-38cae72471be_740x820.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/fdf3675f-00d1-44a9-8a21-38cae72471be_740x820.png" width="740" height="820" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/fdf3675f-00d1-44a9-8a21-38cae72471be_740x820.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":820,"width":740,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":92977,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zZ1b!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffdf3675f-00d1-44a9-8a21-38cae72471be_740x820.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zZ1b!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffdf3675f-00d1-44a9-8a21-38cae72471be_740x820.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zZ1b!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffdf3675f-00d1-44a9-8a21-38cae72471be_740x820.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zZ1b!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffdf3675f-00d1-44a9-8a21-38cae72471be_740x820.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p></p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/mansfieldintinc?s=20">David Mansfield</a> is a great source to follow on the Afghanistan situation.</p><p>As the <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/25b48967-2d8c-4acd-8699-e0cbdf164cb8">FT reports</a>, the Taliban are attempting to present themselves as a force for narcotic suppression: “Speaking this week at a press conference, Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid insisted the movement wanted to eschew drugs and “revive our economy”. “Afghanistan will from now on be a narcotics-free country but it needs international assistance. The international community should help us so that we can have alternative crops,” he said on Tuesday.”</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{"url":"https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe now","action":null,"class":null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p><strong>Afghanistan 1979</strong></p><p>If you are looking for a glimpse of Afghanistan before it was wrenched into the violent dynamic of the Cold War in 1979, this is a remarkable documentary:</p><div id="youtube2-fHPrU7R8L2Y" class="youtube-wrap" data-attrs="{"videoId":"fHPrU7R8L2Y","startTime":null,"endTime":null}" data-component-name="Youtube2ToDOM"><div class="youtube-inner"><iframe src="https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/fHPrU7R8L2Y?rel=0&autoplay=0&showinfo=0&enablejsapi=0" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" gesture="media" allow="autoplay; fullscreen" allowautoplay="true" allowfullscreen="true" width="728" height="409"></iframe></div></div><p>For the remarkable story of a Afghan film-making and the women archivists who are trying to preserve it this story in the Indian magazine The Wire is fascinating and moving.</p><div data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM" class="tweet" data-attrs="{"url":"https://twitter.com/thewire_in/status/1427597328081473547","full_text":"It has never been easy to be an Afghan filmmaker.\n\nThe Afghan archivists had managed to save 7,000 movies totalling up to 32,000 hours of 16mm film and 8,000 hours of 35mm film. | <span class=\"tweet-fake-link\">@Plebeian42</span> \n\n","username":"thewire_in","name":"The Wire","date":"Tue Aug 17 11:45:01 +0000 2021","photos":[],"quoted_tweet":{},"retweet_count":19,"like_count":74,"expanded_url":{"url":"https://thewire.in/film/afghan-filmmakers-fear-for-their-lives-and-for-the-safety-of-the-archives","image":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b1c1762f-086f-4823-9254-f866d3aa9972_800x400.jpeg","title":"Afghan Filmmakers Fear For Their Lives – and for the Safety of the Archives","description":"Some of them had attended preservation workshops in India and were cautiously hopeful about the future.","domain":"thewire.in"},"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":true}"><a class="tweet-link-top" href="https://twitter.com/thewire_in/status/1427597328081473547" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-header"><img class="tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/thewire_in.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @thewire_in" loading="lazy"><div class="tweet-header-text"><span class="tweet-author-name">The Wire </span><span class="tweet-author-handle">@thewire_in</span></div></div><div class="tweet-text">It has never been easy to be an Afghan filmmaker.
The Afghan archivists had managed to save 7,000 movies totalling up to 32,000 hours of 16mm film and 8,000 hours of 35mm film. | <span class="tweet-fake-link">@Plebeian42</span>
</div><a class="expanded-link" href="https://thewire.in/film/afghan-filmmakers-fear-for-their-lives-and-for-the-safety-of-the-archives" target="_blank"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b1c1762f-086f-4823-9254-f866d3aa9972_800x400.jpeg" class="expanded-link-img" loading="lazy"><div class="expanded-link-bottom"><span class="expanded-link-domain">thewire.in</span><span class="expanded-link-title">Afghan Filmmakers Fear For Their Lives – and for the Safety of the Archives</span><span class="expanded-link-description">Some of them had attended preservation workshops in India and were cautiously hopeful about the future.</span></div></a></a><a class="tweet-link-bottom" href="https://twitter.com/thewire_in/status/1427597328081473547" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-footer"><span class="tweet-date">11:45 AM ∙ Aug 17, 2021</span><hr><div class="tweet-ufi"><span href="https://twitter.com/thewire_in/status/1427597328081473547/likes" class="likes"><span class="like-count">74</span>Likes</span><span href="https://twitter.com/thewire_in/status/1427597328081473547/retweets" class="retweets"><span class="rt-count">19</span>Retweets</span></div></div></a></div><p></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!sQur!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94f01399-33b0-452f-98ff-41573b6b2467_772x1022.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!sQur!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94f01399-33b0-452f-98ff-41573b6b2467_772x1022.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!sQur!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94f01399-33b0-452f-98ff-41573b6b2467_772x1022.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!sQur!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94f01399-33b0-452f-98ff-41573b6b2467_772x1022.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!sQur!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94f01399-33b0-452f-98ff-41573b6b2467_772x1022.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/94f01399-33b0-452f-98ff-41573b6b2467_772x1022.png" width="772" height="1022" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/94f01399-33b0-452f-98ff-41573b6b2467_772x1022.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":1022,"width":772,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":1368823,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!sQur!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94f01399-33b0-452f-98ff-41573b6b2467_772x1022.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!sQur!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94f01399-33b0-452f-98ff-41573b6b2467_772x1022.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!sQur!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94f01399-33b0-452f-98ff-41573b6b2467_772x1022.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!sQur!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94f01399-33b0-452f-98ff-41573b6b2467_772x1022.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{"url":"https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/top-links-13-financing-afghanistans?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share","text":"Share","action":null,"class":null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/top-links-13-financing-afghanistans?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share"><span>Share</span></a></p><p></p><!--
{
"post_id": "40252038.adam-tooze-tl-13-can-afghan-cover",
"post_date": "2021-08-20T11:24:01.489Z",
"is_published": true,
"email_sent_at": "2021-08-20T11:24:01.515Z",
"inbox_sent_at": "2021-08-20T11:24:01.515Z",
"type": "newsletter",
"audience": "only_free",
"title": "Adam Tooze TL #13 Can Afghan cover its trade deficit? .... and more on the politics of Afghanistan's central bank. ",
"subtitle": "An invitation to the unsubscribed. "
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<p></p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{"url":"https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe now","action":null,"class":null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p>As the Taliban establish their grip on power in Kabul, the question of finances rears its head. This matters so much, because the Afghan state has, in the recent past, been heavily dependent on foreign aid. The aid pays not just for government spending. Even more importantly it pays Afghanistan’s import bill. </p><p><strong>Foreign exchange & the central bank reserves</strong></p><p>Covering the import bill is more urgent, because with enough men with guns behind it, a state can tax its population and solve the problem of state finance. The Afghan Army is currently paid for largely by foreign donors. We do not doubt that the Taliban will find ways of maintaining its fighting force in being. It cannot use those same method to pay for foreign imports. And Afghanistan has an appetite for imports far in excess of what its exports pay for. </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!or77!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F92d9fc8a-8d3d-4067-aa77-77ed494161de_720x428.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!or77!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F92d9fc8a-8d3d-4067-aa77-77ed494161de_720x428.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!or77!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F92d9fc8a-8d3d-4067-aa77-77ed494161de_720x428.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!or77!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F92d9fc8a-8d3d-4067-aa77-77ed494161de_720x428.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!or77!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F92d9fc8a-8d3d-4067-aa77-77ed494161de_720x428.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/92d9fc8a-8d3d-4067-aa77-77ed494161de_720x428.png" width="720" height="428" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/92d9fc8a-8d3d-4067-aa77-77ed494161de_720x428.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":428,"width":720,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":42505,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":false,"topImage":true,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!or77!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F92d9fc8a-8d3d-4067-aa77-77ed494161de_720x428.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!or77!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F92d9fc8a-8d3d-4067-aa77-77ed494161de_720x428.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!or77!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F92d9fc8a-8d3d-4067-aa77-77ed494161de_720x428.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!or77!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F92d9fc8a-8d3d-4067-aa77-77ed494161de_720x428.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>In round figures, Afghanistan’s trade deficit in 2020 came to $5.69 billion. Its GDP in the same year was c. $20 billion. Its deficit was more than a quarter of GDP! </p><p>To pay for imports you need hard currency. The most obvious way an economy generates hard currency is through exports (NB: this is a short hand. Actually, businesses generate hard currency through foreign sales, which they may or may not wish to exchange for local currency, but lets not get into the complexities of this at this point). Alternatively you can borrow the foreign exchange, or, if you are a poor country, receive it in aid. Relative to its exports Afghanistan’s trade deficit has been huge. The gap has been closed by aid. Under Taliban rule, far less aid is likely to flow to Afghanistan. </p><p>It is this gap, which makes the question of who controls the reserves of the Afghan central bank and its holdings of foreign currency and gold so critical. </p><p><strong>An invitation </strong></p><p>Top Links normally goes out in the full version only to paying subscribers. If you are enjoying this and would like to get the full emails regularly, sign up for one of the paying options.</p><p>There are three types of subscription:</p><ol><li><p>The <strong>annual subscription: $50 annually</strong></p></li><li><p>The <strong>standard monthly subscription: $5 monthly -</strong> which gives you a bit more flexibility.</p></li><li><p><strong>Founders club:$ 120 annua</strong>lly, or another amount at your discretion - for those who really love Chartbook Newsletter, or read it in a professional setting in which you regularly pay for subscriptions, please consider signing up for the <strong>Founders Club</strong>.</p></li></ol><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{"url":"https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe now","action":null,"class":null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p>Other benefits will include a series of reading group sessions I will be organizing with subscribers following the release of <em>Shutdown</em> in the fall.</p><p></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!40vy!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F497a99ee-3aa7-4ca4-a3ff-18b5b4b64ff2_566x854.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!40vy!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F497a99ee-3aa7-4ca4-a3ff-18b5b4b64ff2_566x854.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!40vy!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F497a99ee-3aa7-4ca4-a3ff-18b5b4b64ff2_566x854.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!40vy!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F497a99ee-3aa7-4ca4-a3ff-18b5b4b64ff2_566x854.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!40vy!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F497a99ee-3aa7-4ca4-a3ff-18b5b4b64ff2_566x854.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/497a99ee-3aa7-4ca4-a3ff-18b5b4b64ff2_566x854.png" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/497a99ee-3aa7-4ca4-a3ff-18b5b4b64ff2_566x854.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":null,"width":null,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":546745,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!40vy!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F497a99ee-3aa7-4ca4-a3ff-18b5b4b64ff2_566x854.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!40vy!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F497a99ee-3aa7-4ca4-a3ff-18b5b4b64ff2_566x854.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!40vy!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F497a99ee-3aa7-4ca4-a3ff-18b5b4b64ff2_566x854.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!40vy!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F497a99ee-3aa7-4ca4-a3ff-18b5b4b64ff2_566x854.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div></div></div></a></figure></div><p><strong>The Afghan Reserves</strong></p><p>As the <em><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2021/08/17/treasury-taliban-money-afghanistan/">Washington Post</a></em> reports: “The Afghanistan central bank held $9.4 billion in reserve assets as of April, according to the International Monetary Fund. That amounts to roughly one-third of the country’s annual economic output. The vast majority of those reserves are not currently held in Afghanistan, one of the people familiar with the matter said. Among those, billions of dollars are kept in the United States, although the precise amount is unclear.”</p><p>An urgent conversation about the whereabouts of the $9.4 billion unfolded on twitter in recent days. </p><div data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM" class="tweet" data-attrs="{"url":"https://twitter.com/jp_koning/status/1427657102630301696","full_text":"Afghanistan's central bank, da Afghanistan Bank, holds 703,005 ounces of gold, all deposited at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. That's worth US$1.25 billion. It's a safe guess that with the Taliban taking over this gold will be frozen.\n\nSource: <a class=\"tweet-url\" href=\"https://dab.gov.af/sites/default/files/2021-04/DA%20AFGHANISTAN%20BANK%20CONSOLIDATED%20FINANCIAL%20STATEMENTS%20FOR%20THE%20YEAR%20ENDED%20QAWS%20301399%20%28DECEMBER%20202020%29final.pdf\">dab.gov.af/sites/default/…</a> ","username":"jp_koning","name":"John Paul Koning","date":"Tue Aug 17 15:42:32 +0000 2021","photos":[{"img_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/media/E9AOcUzXEAE6QcZ.png","link_url":"https://t.co/xxqImhtCeJ","alt_text":null}],"quoted_tweet":{},"retweet_count":15,"like_count":50,"expanded_url":{},"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":true}"><a class="tweet-link-top" href="https://twitter.com/jp_koning/status/1427657102630301696" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-header"><img class="tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/jp_koning.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @jp_koning" loading="lazy"><div class="tweet-header-text"><span class="tweet-author-name">John Paul Koning </span><span class="tweet-author-handle">@jp_koning</span></div></div><div class="tweet-text">Afghanistan's central bank, da Afghanistan Bank, holds 703,005 ounces of gold, all deposited at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. That's worth US$1.25 billion. It's a safe guess that with the Taliban taking over this gold will be frozen.
Source: <a class="tweet-url" href="https://dab.gov.af/sites/default/files/2021-04/DA%20AFGHANISTAN%20BANK%20CONSOLIDATED%20FINANCIAL%20STATEMENTS%20FOR%20THE%20YEAR%20ENDED%20QAWS%20301399%20%28DECEMBER%20202020%29final.pdf" target="_blank">dab.gov.af/sites/default/…</a> </div><div class="tweet-photos-container one"><div class="tweet-photo-wrapper "><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!euIF!,w_600,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FE9AOcUzXEAE6QcZ.png"><img class="tweet-photo" src="https://pbs.substack.com/media/E9AOcUzXEAE6QcZ.png" alt="Image" loading="lazy"></picture></div></div></a><a class="tweet-link-bottom" href="https://twitter.com/jp_koning/status/1427657102630301696" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-footer"><span class="tweet-date">3:42 PM ∙ Aug 17, 2021</span><hr><div class="tweet-ufi"><span href="https://twitter.com/jp_koning/status/1427657102630301696/likes" class="likes"><span class="like-count">50</span>Likes</span><span href="https://twitter.com/jp_koning/status/1427657102630301696/retweets" class="retweets"><span class="rt-count">15</span>Retweets</span></div></div></a></div><p>Afghan’s former central bank boss, Ajmal Ahmady, whose escape from Kabul we followed by way of twitter earlier this week, was interviewed by phone by the <em>FT</em> and he confirmed that the reserves were held outside the country. </p><div data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM" class="tweet" data-attrs="{"url":"https://twitter.com/aahmady/status/1427883009164955649?s=20","full_text":"This thread is to clarify the location of DAB (Central Bank of Afghanistan) international reserves\n\nI am writing this because I have been told Taliban are asking DAB staff about location of assets\n\nIf this is true - it is clear they urgently need to add an economist on their team","username":"aahmady","name":"Ajmal Ahmady","date":"Wed Aug 18 06:40:12 +0000 2021","photos":[],"quoted_tweet":{},"retweet_count":3374,"like_count":8736,"expanded_url":{},"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":true}"><a class="tweet-link-top" href="https://twitter.com/aahmady/status/1427883009164955649?s=20" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-header"><img class="tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/aahmady.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @aahmady" loading="lazy"><div class="tweet-header-text"><span class="tweet-author-name">Ajmal Ahmady </span><span class="tweet-author-handle">@aahmady</span></div></div><div class="tweet-text">This thread is to clarify the location of DAB (Central Bank of Afghanistan) international reserves
I am writing this because I have been told Taliban are asking DAB staff about location of assets
If this is true - it is clear they urgently need to add an economist on their team</div></a><a class="tweet-link-bottom" href="https://twitter.com/aahmady/status/1427883009164955649?s=20" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-footer"><span class="tweet-date">6:40 AM ∙ Aug 18, 2021</span><hr><div class="tweet-ufi"><span href="https://twitter.com/aahmady/status/1427883009164955649?s=20/likes" class="likes"><span class="like-count">8,736</span>Likes</span><span href="https://twitter.com/aahmady/status/1427883009164955649?s=20/retweets" class="retweets"><span class="rt-count">3,374</span>Retweets</span></div></div></a></div><p>As Ahmady concluded his <a href="https://twitter.com/aahmady/status/1427883026256736256?s=20">summary</a>:</p><p>“Therefore, my base case would be the following: - Treasury freezes assets - Taliban have to implement capital controls and limit dollar access - Currency will depreciate - Inflation will rise as currency pass through is very high - This will hurt the poor as food prices increase.”</p><p><strong>Depreciation</strong></p><p>According to <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/18/business/afghanistan-currency-taliban/index.html">CNN</a>, the Afghani has been trading at a deep discount to the dollar, falling to as low as 100 to the dollar on Saturday before settling around 86.</p><p>At the end of 2020, as this <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/18/business/afghanistan-currency-taliban/index.html">Bloomberg graphic</a> shows, it was trading around 77 to the dollar. This is clearly a steep depreciation, but not yet a collapse. </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BDU1!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F524c83ba-12bb-495d-b9da-efff0dda33f6_1376x832.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BDU1!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F524c83ba-12bb-495d-b9da-efff0dda33f6_1376x832.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BDU1!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F524c83ba-12bb-495d-b9da-efff0dda33f6_1376x832.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BDU1!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F524c83ba-12bb-495d-b9da-efff0dda33f6_1376x832.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BDU1!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F524c83ba-12bb-495d-b9da-efff0dda33f6_1376x832.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/524c83ba-12bb-495d-b9da-efff0dda33f6_1376x832.png" width="1376" height="832" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/524c83ba-12bb-495d-b9da-efff0dda33f6_1376x832.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":832,"width":1376,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":402393,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BDU1!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F524c83ba-12bb-495d-b9da-efff0dda33f6_1376x832.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BDU1!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F524c83ba-12bb-495d-b9da-efff0dda33f6_1376x832.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BDU1!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F524c83ba-12bb-495d-b9da-efff0dda33f6_1376x832.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BDU1!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F524c83ba-12bb-495d-b9da-efff0dda33f6_1376x832.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{"url":"https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe now","action":null,"class":null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p><strong>Cutting off the dollars</strong></p><p>“Mr. Ahmady”, of the Afghan central bank told the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-halted-dollar-shipments-to-afghanistan-to-keep-cash-out-of-talibans-hands-11629233621">WSJ</a>, “that bank officials began reducing the amount of cash, including U.S. dollars, held at bank branches in provincial centers earlier this month amid concerns over the Taliban’s advance. By the time the first major provincial capital fell to the Taliban nearly two weeks ago, nearly all U.S. dollars had been repatriated, he said. “During this entire period, no dollars fell into the hands of Taliban before Kabul fell,” Mr. Ahmady said. “All of it was secured.”</p><p>Now the US administration is working to prevent the new power holders in Kabul benefiting from a $450 million issuance of Special Drawing Rights, which the IMF is preparing in the coming days. </p><p><strong>Planeloads of cash:</strong></p><p>This from </p><p>Brookings:</p><p>“Afghanistan's previous government, we have to say it was never flush, but it did regularly receive planeloads of cash from the US government and it was used to pay salaries of officials and keep the wheels of government just turning. There were bulk shipments of dollars expected as late as last Sunday, but it never arrived.”</p><p><strong>Ajmal Ahmady - a rejected central bank governor </strong></p><p>The tweets by Afghan central banker Ahmady have made him into something of a celebrity witness to the collapse of the Ghani regime. What is less often noted is Ahmady’s own position. He is reputed to be engaged to ex-President Ghani’s daughter. His appointment by Ghani went hand in hand with what appeared to be a politically motivated purge of the central bank and in December 2020 Ahmady’s nomination was rejected by a large majority of the Afghan parliament. </p><p>This report from <em><a href="https://www.centralbanking.com/central-banks/governance/7720661/is-the-integrity-of-afghanistans-central-bank-under-threat">Central Banking</a></em> is a fascinating source, also on the last time that the Taliban were in charge at the Afghan central bank. </p><p>Obviously, Afghanistan is rife with corruption and its politics is bitterly factional. It is a society in which accusations of corruption are easily instrumentalized. Ahmady came into the central bank wielding massive allegations of corruption against senior staff that took many by surprise. <em>Central Banking</em> is a serious source and they are are unable to arbitrate the issue to their satisfaction. In any case, if you want to have some idea of whose commentary you are following on twitter, the piece in <em>Central Banking</em> is an extraordinary mine of information. </p><p><strong>Remittances and Western Union </strong></p><p>Apart from official reserves and exports, another important source of foreign exchange are remittances from the Afghan diaspora. <strong>Remittances amount to nearly 4% of Afghanistan’s gross domestic product. But how does the money reach Afghanistan? </strong></p><p>Afghanistan has a famous network of informal money changers. But as far as western banking agencies are concerned, Afghanistan is now a no go area. <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-to-help-people-in-afghanistan-as-western-union-suspends-money-transfers-into-the-country-11629225525">Western Union</a> ceased services to Afghanistan earlier in the week.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{"url":"https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe now","action":null,"class":null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p><strong>China & India</strong></p><p>One possible source of support could be China. It will be interesting to see how long it takes before finance begins to be an issue in relations between Kabul and Beijing.</p><p>One American reading is that China may be principally concerned with the $282 billion that it has <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/how-afghanistan-snagschina-ina-282-billion-creditor-trap/2021/08/18/0a5995b4-007d-11ec-87e0-7e07bd9ce270_story.html">invested in the One Belt One Road projects</a> that span Afghanistan and are anchored in Pakistan.</p><p>In neighboring India there is already <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/with-taliban-in-power-china-eyes-lucrative-rare-earth-mines-in-afghanistan-121081900984_1.html">fevered speculation</a> about possible investment deals </p><p><strong>Taliban tolls</strong></p><p>Foreign currency is likely to be a serious issue for the Taliban regime, but as far as domestic taxation is concerned, the Taliban have a considerable track record. </p><p>This <a href="https://www.economist.com/asia/2019/05/18/why-afghanistans-government-is-losing-the-war-with-the-taliban">Economist</a> article gives a vivid description of their system of transport tolls. </p><p><strong>Taliban economics</strong></p><p>This <a href="https://l4p.odi.org/assets/images/L4P-Nimroz-study_main-report-13.08.21.pdf">remarkable report</a> by David Mansfield and Graeme Smith published by the ODI think tank gives a deep insight into the way in which the Taliban have recently been taxing the local economy in one Iranian border region. As you can see, its revenue flow is dominated not by illegal drugs but by trade in fuel and border transit. </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zZ1b!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffdf3675f-00d1-44a9-8a21-38cae72471be_740x820.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zZ1b!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffdf3675f-00d1-44a9-8a21-38cae72471be_740x820.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zZ1b!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffdf3675f-00d1-44a9-8a21-38cae72471be_740x820.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zZ1b!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffdf3675f-00d1-44a9-8a21-38cae72471be_740x820.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zZ1b!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffdf3675f-00d1-44a9-8a21-38cae72471be_740x820.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/fdf3675f-00d1-44a9-8a21-38cae72471be_740x820.png" width="740" height="820" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/fdf3675f-00d1-44a9-8a21-38cae72471be_740x820.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":820,"width":740,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":92977,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zZ1b!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffdf3675f-00d1-44a9-8a21-38cae72471be_740x820.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zZ1b!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffdf3675f-00d1-44a9-8a21-38cae72471be_740x820.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zZ1b!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffdf3675f-00d1-44a9-8a21-38cae72471be_740x820.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!zZ1b!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffdf3675f-00d1-44a9-8a21-38cae72471be_740x820.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p><a href="https://twitter.com/mansfieldintinc?s=20">David Mansfield</a> is a great source to follow on the Afghanistan situation.</p><p>As the <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/25b48967-2d8c-4acd-8699-e0cbdf164cb8">FT reports</a>, the Taliban are attempting to present themselves as a force for narcotic suppression: “Speaking this week at a press conference, Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid insisted the movement wanted to eschew drugs and “revive our economy”. “Afghanistan will from now on be a narcotics-free country but it needs international assistance. The international community should help us so that we can have alternative crops,” he said on Tuesday.”</p><p><strong>Afghanistan 1979</strong></p><p>If you are looking for a glimpse of Afghanistan before it was wrenched into the violent dynamic of the Cold War in 1979, this is a remarkable documentary:</p><div id="youtube2-fHPrU7R8L2Y" class="youtube-wrap" data-attrs="{"videoId":"fHPrU7R8L2Y","startTime":null,"endTime":null}" data-component-name="Youtube2ToDOM"><div class="youtube-inner"><iframe src="https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/fHPrU7R8L2Y?rel=0&autoplay=0&showinfo=0&enablejsapi=0" frameborder="0" loading="lazy" gesture="media" allow="autoplay; fullscreen" allowautoplay="true" allowfullscreen="true" width="728" height="409"></iframe></div></div><p>For the remarkable story of a Afghan film-making and the women archivists who are trying to preserve it this story in the Indian magazine The Wire is fascinating and moving.</p><div data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM" class="tweet" data-attrs="{"url":"https://twitter.com/thewire_in/status/1427597328081473547","full_text":"It has never been easy to be an Afghan filmmaker.\n\nThe Afghan archivists had managed to save 7,000 movies totalling up to 32,000 hours of 16mm film and 8,000 hours of 35mm film. | <span class=\"tweet-fake-link\">@Plebeian42</span> \n\n","username":"thewire_in","name":"The Wire","date":"Tue Aug 17 11:45:01 +0000 2021","photos":[],"quoted_tweet":{},"retweet_count":19,"like_count":74,"expanded_url":{"url":"https://thewire.in/film/afghan-filmmakers-fear-for-their-lives-and-for-the-safety-of-the-archives","image":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b1c1762f-086f-4823-9254-f866d3aa9972_800x400.jpeg","title":"Afghan Filmmakers Fear For Their Lives – and for the Safety of the Archives","description":"Some of them had attended preservation workshops in India and were cautiously hopeful about the future.","domain":"thewire.in"},"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":true}"><a class="tweet-link-top" href="https://twitter.com/thewire_in/status/1427597328081473547" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-header"><img class="tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/thewire_in.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @thewire_in" loading="lazy"><div class="tweet-header-text"><span class="tweet-author-name">The Wire </span><span class="tweet-author-handle">@thewire_in</span></div></div><div class="tweet-text">It has never been easy to be an Afghan filmmaker.
The Afghan archivists had managed to save 7,000 movies totalling up to 32,000 hours of 16mm film and 8,000 hours of 35mm film. | <span class="tweet-fake-link">@Plebeian42</span>
</div><a class="expanded-link" href="https://thewire.in/film/afghan-filmmakers-fear-for-their-lives-and-for-the-safety-of-the-archives" target="_blank"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/b1c1762f-086f-4823-9254-f866d3aa9972_800x400.jpeg" class="expanded-link-img" loading="lazy"><div class="expanded-link-bottom"><span class="expanded-link-domain">thewire.in</span><span class="expanded-link-title">Afghan Filmmakers Fear For Their Lives – and for the Safety of the Archives</span><span class="expanded-link-description">Some of them had attended preservation workshops in India and were cautiously hopeful about the future.</span></div></a></a><a class="tweet-link-bottom" href="https://twitter.com/thewire_in/status/1427597328081473547" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-footer"><span class="tweet-date">11:45 AM ∙ Aug 17, 2021</span><hr><div class="tweet-ufi"><span href="https://twitter.com/thewire_in/status/1427597328081473547/likes" class="likes"><span class="like-count">74</span>Likes</span><span href="https://twitter.com/thewire_in/status/1427597328081473547/retweets" class="retweets"><span class="rt-count">19</span>Retweets</span></div></div></a></div><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!sQur!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94f01399-33b0-452f-98ff-41573b6b2467_772x1022.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!sQur!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94f01399-33b0-452f-98ff-41573b6b2467_772x1022.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!sQur!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94f01399-33b0-452f-98ff-41573b6b2467_772x1022.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!sQur!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94f01399-33b0-452f-98ff-41573b6b2467_772x1022.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!sQur!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94f01399-33b0-452f-98ff-41573b6b2467_772x1022.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/94f01399-33b0-452f-98ff-41573b6b2467_772x1022.png" width="772" height="1022" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/94f01399-33b0-452f-98ff-41573b6b2467_772x1022.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":1022,"width":772,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":1368823,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!sQur!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94f01399-33b0-452f-98ff-41573b6b2467_772x1022.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!sQur!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94f01399-33b0-452f-98ff-41573b6b2467_772x1022.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!sQur!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94f01399-33b0-452f-98ff-41573b6b2467_772x1022.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!sQur!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F94f01399-33b0-452f-98ff-41573b6b2467_772x1022.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption"></figcaption></figure></div><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{"url":"https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe now","action":null,"class":null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p></p><!--
{
"post_id": "40504935.chartbook-35-its-not-the-fall-that",
"post_date": "2021-08-28T10:39:00.957Z",
"is_published": true,
"email_sent_at": "2021-08-28T10:39:00.985Z",
"inbox_sent_at": "2021-08-28T10:39:00.985Z",
"type": "newsletter",
"audience": "everyone",
"title": "Chartbook #35: It's not the fall that kills you .... Afghanistan's looming triple crisis ",
"subtitle": "How a sudden stop threatens to compound a humanitarian and political crisis. "
}
-->
<p>“It’s not the fall that kills you. It’s the sudden stop.”</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{"url":"https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe now","action":null,"class":null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p>Back in July I was drawn into the Afghan crisis by the shocking question: “What do you do if you can see the end of your world approaching? Do you flee? Do you resign yourself?”</p><p>One month on I fear that what we are watching is the lid of the coffin closing, the earth raining down on a society being buried alive. </p><p>There is the threat of draconian Taliban rule, but that is compounded by the economic and the financial situation facing Afghanistan in the wake of the foreign evacuation. </p><p>As I put it in a short piece published in <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/08/27/afghanistan-taliban-economy-aid-sanctions-united-states-west/">Foreign Policy</a> Friday: “The Taliban may threaten Afghanis’ freedom and rights, but it is the abrupt end to funding from the West that jeopardizes Afghanistan’s material survival.”</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4CHe!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F700f647a-3781-4652-b6ee-234e9b5a26ad_824x520.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4CHe!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F700f647a-3781-4652-b6ee-234e9b5a26ad_824x520.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4CHe!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F700f647a-3781-4652-b6ee-234e9b5a26ad_824x520.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4CHe!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F700f647a-3781-4652-b6ee-234e9b5a26ad_824x520.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4CHe!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F700f647a-3781-4652-b6ee-234e9b5a26ad_824x520.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/700f647a-3781-4652-b6ee-234e9b5a26ad_824x520.png" width="579" height="365.3883495145631" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/700f647a-3781-4652-b6ee-234e9b5a26ad_824x520.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":520,"width":824,"resizeWidth":579,"bytes":81862,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":false,"topImage":true,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4CHe!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F700f647a-3781-4652-b6ee-234e9b5a26ad_824x520.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4CHe!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F700f647a-3781-4652-b6ee-234e9b5a26ad_824x520.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4CHe!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F700f647a-3781-4652-b6ee-234e9b5a26ad_824x520.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!4CHe!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F700f647a-3781-4652-b6ee-234e9b5a26ad_824x520.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>The Taliban must be held responsible for their violation of human rights, but if the Western powers treat access to Afghanistan’s foreign exchange reserves and financial aid as a means of disciplining Kabul - as was recently suggested by the G7 - it is we who are putting in jeopardy the survival of the Afghan population and what is left in Afghanistan of a modern economy. </p><p>My brilliant friend Nick Mulder (Cornell) is about to publish an important book with <a href="https://yalebooks.co.uk/display.asp?k=9780300259360">Yale University Press</a> about the history and politics of sanctions. </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!swtv!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9fcf6dba-73ba-4304-b028-2e3d08db0697_1004x1454.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!swtv!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9fcf6dba-73ba-4304-b028-2e3d08db0697_1004x1454.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!swtv!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9fcf6dba-73ba-4304-b028-2e3d08db0697_1004x1454.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!swtv!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9fcf6dba-73ba-4304-b028-2e3d08db0697_1004x1454.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!swtv!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9fcf6dba-73ba-4304-b028-2e3d08db0697_1004x1454.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/9fcf6dba-73ba-4304-b028-2e3d08db0697_1004x1454.png" width="409" height="592.316733067729" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/9fcf6dba-73ba-4304-b028-2e3d08db0697_1004x1454.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":1454,"width":1004,"resizeWidth":409,"bytes":1427820,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!swtv!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9fcf6dba-73ba-4304-b028-2e3d08db0697_1004x1454.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!swtv!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9fcf6dba-73ba-4304-b028-2e3d08db0697_1004x1454.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!swtv!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9fcf6dba-73ba-4304-b028-2e3d08db0697_1004x1454.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!swtv!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9fcf6dba-73ba-4304-b028-2e3d08db0697_1004x1454.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Nick’s take on the history of sanctions is highly critical. He does a brilliant job explaining the remorseless logic of liberalism’s preeminent coercive weapon. Indeed, he places it in continuity with the logic of nuclear deterrence. It is going to be a widely debated book. </p><p>Whether you are for or against the sanctions weapon, if there was ever a case that revealed the pitiless violence of liberalism’s preeminent means of international coercion, it is Afghanistan. Not only is the majority of the Afghan population intensely vulnerable. They are amongst the poorest people on the planet. But the bit of Afghan society that has seen some economic development, was reared, educated and financially animated by the US-led coalition over the course of the twenty-year intervention. Cutting off finance to Afghanistan is not like sanctioning an autonomous, free-standing, self-sustaining society. We are deliberately throttling the life support of an organism that we in large part created and remains critically dependent on us. If the Taliban’s aim is to demodernize Afghan society then we will be doing their work for them. </p><p>At their most cynical, sanctions are a deliberate attempt to trigger an ungovernable humanitarian crisis, which will undermine Taliban authority. That would be a crime against the millions who will suffer the effects including millions of children. The only circumstance under which the sanctions serve in a more measured way as a strategic tool, is if the Taliban have discovered that they do not, in fact, want to demodernize Afghanistan, but have an interest in maintaining whatever economic development has taken place. If that is the case, it is all the more perverse for us to be the force crushing the elements of modernity that we ourselves have helped to foster. </p><p>Appeals for generous funding have been made in recent days amongst others by <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/a278c39a-d7f2-4a2a-8d45-43ecf3879a0e">Saad Mohseni</a> and by <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/6395d167-3175-4332-8329-ae1478c616ca">Ajmal Ahmady</a>. We should support them. </p><p>In this newsletter I want not only to revisit some of the economic and social data that show how acutely dangerous this crisis is. I also want to make an analytical distinction between three different crises. </p><p>First there is the political crisis of Taliban conquest and seizure of power. </p><p>Then there is the looming humanitarian crisis. This results from Afghanistan’s chronic poverty compounded by war and environmental shocks. According to the <a href="https://secure.wfpusa.org/donate/save-lives-places-afghanistan-today-1?ms=2108_UNR_Afghanistan_Google_SRCH&gclid=Cj0KCQjwvaeJBhCvARIsABgTDM45AeSllOj8X9TBSxbtMmfN0puNyrfdR9VKw_nF-3vBuaUXOHukQukaAmXfEALw_wcB">World Food Program</a>, half of Afghanistan’s population is in need of assistance. Millions of children are malnourished. The harvest in 2021 has been devastated by drought. </p><p>On top of those threats, Afghanistan’s macroeconomic situation is menacing. The bit of Afghan society that was not dependent on basic agriculture or immediately reliant on foreign aid - let us call it “urban Afghanistan” for short - lives in an economy that is fueled by foreign payments. That funding is now abruptly halted and is being made into a diplomatic weapon. The idea seems to be to release it only on condition of “good behavior” by the Taliban. The consequences for urban Afghanistan will be dire. </p><p>Before getting into the nitty gritty, it is worth taking a brief detour into history. Timothy Nunan (FU Berlin), who wrote a brilliant <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/de/academic/subjects/history/global-history/humanitarian-invasion-global-development-cold-war-afghanistan?format=HB">book</a> on the history of rivalrous modernization projects in Afghanistan, has given us his historical perspective on the current crisis in an excellent essay in <a href="https://www.noemamag.com/the-end-of-nation-building/">Noema</a>. </p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{"url":"https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe now","action":null,"class":null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p>As Nunan points out, both the common clichés about Afghanistan - medieval and/or graveyard of empires - obscure the fact that the country has, in fact, been a laboratory of modern political experimentation. </p><blockquote><p>“Yet, the “graveyard of empires” narrative obscures as much as it illuminates. It makes Afghans bit players, rather than protagonists, to their own history. And it fails to explain why Afghanistan has been at the margins of geopolitics for much of its modern history, in particular for much of the twentieth century. The Afghans won their independence from the British in 1919, only to discover that with liberty came an end to British subsidies. New state monopolies and tariffs allowed Kabul’s rulers to gain a measure of economic self-sufficiency. Fundamentally, however, the resources inside Afghanistan’s borders could not pay for the costs of governing the space within those borders.</p></blockquote><blockquote><p>Thus was born the real pattern to modern Afghan history, namely that of Afghan elites appealing to foreigners to subsidize and build up the Afghan state. Afghanistan became a field onto which outsiders could project norms of statehood, development and modernity. Ottoman and Indian Muslim technocrats flocked to Afghanistan to shore up one of the Muslim world’s few independent states with constitutions, officer schools and printing presses. Like their German and Italian successors in Kabul, these foreigners sought not to conquer Afghanistan, but rather embed it in a coalition of states that could challenge the British-dominated interwar world order.</p></blockquote><p>This passage really struck me because this is exactly what we see in Afghanistan’s economic balance of the last thirty years. </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!cDcz!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1655d107-aa2d-4688-9ab1-410a040e6b92_1294x1046.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!cDcz!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1655d107-aa2d-4688-9ab1-410a040e6b92_1294x1046.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!cDcz!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1655d107-aa2d-4688-9ab1-410a040e6b92_1294x1046.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!cDcz!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1655d107-aa2d-4688-9ab1-410a040e6b92_1294x1046.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!cDcz!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1655d107-aa2d-4688-9ab1-410a040e6b92_1294x1046.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/1655d107-aa2d-4688-9ab1-410a040e6b92_1294x1046.png" width="1294" height="1046" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/1655d107-aa2d-4688-9ab1-410a040e6b92_1294x1046.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":1046,"width":1294,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":130023,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!cDcz!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1655d107-aa2d-4688-9ab1-410a040e6b92_1294x1046.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!cDcz!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1655d107-aa2d-4688-9ab1-410a040e6b92_1294x1046.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!cDcz!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1655d107-aa2d-4688-9ab1-410a040e6b92_1294x1046.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!cDcz!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1655d107-aa2d-4688-9ab1-410a040e6b92_1294x1046.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source: <a href="https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/682381509958023712/pdf/120906-WP-PUBLIC-AFGtradeandtransitreportFINALNovtoupload.pdf">World Bank</a></p><p>Afghanistan in the 1990s, during the period of warlord battles, habitually ran a trade deficit, but it was small . It was when a new elite was installed in power after 2001, with new foreign backers that the trade deficit blew out. One could hardly ask for a clearer demonstration of Nunan’s diagnosis. </p><p>Recently, the deficit has hovered somewhere between 25 and 30 percent of GDP. This is a huge imbalance, which creates a corresponding risk of a sudden stop. </p><p>To be clear, to run a trade deficit is not necessarily a bad thing, especially for a very poor country. We tend to think of imports as an economic “bad”, whereas exports are considered an economic “good”. Of course, there may be some imports that are frivolous or undesirable. Naturally it can be a source of pride if a country makes things or offers services that the world wants to buy. But it is not surprising that a poor country cannot offer these. If it could, it would not be poor. It is almost definitional of modernity that in a poor country the population’s wants should exceed their ability to satisfy them. In this sense having a trade deficit is a sign that life has a modern pulse. </p><p>International trade is not an Olympic sport in which the country with the biggest trade surplus wins the gold medal. If you are looking for an analogy it is better to think of the economy as a metabolism for which imports serve as the food or fuel. They are essential to preserving the society or economy in being. Cutting them off risks metabolic collapse, in other words a severe recession. That is what is threatening urban Afghanistan in the current moment. That economic shock comes on top of the gigantic humanitarian crisis of chronic malnourishment and poverty - amplified in recent years by the shocks of mounting civil war and drought. </p><p>What kind of things does Afghanistan import? </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!gLS1!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4be5423f-0267-4294-8548-b605e2cbdafa_1240x1294.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!gLS1!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4be5423f-0267-4294-8548-b605e2cbdafa_1240x1294.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!gLS1!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4be5423f-0267-4294-8548-b605e2cbdafa_1240x1294.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!gLS1!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4be5423f-0267-4294-8548-b605e2cbdafa_1240x1294.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!gLS1!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4be5423f-0267-4294-8548-b605e2cbdafa_1240x1294.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/4be5423f-0267-4294-8548-b605e2cbdafa_1240x1294.png" width="1240" height="1294" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/4be5423f-0267-4294-8548-b605e2cbdafa_1240x1294.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":1294,"width":1240,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":163115,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!gLS1!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4be5423f-0267-4294-8548-b605e2cbdafa_1240x1294.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!gLS1!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4be5423f-0267-4294-8548-b605e2cbdafa_1240x1294.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!gLS1!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4be5423f-0267-4294-8548-b605e2cbdafa_1240x1294.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!gLS1!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F4be5423f-0267-4294-8548-b605e2cbdafa_1240x1294.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source: <a href="https://trendeconomy.com/data/h2/Afghanistan/TOTAL">Trend Economy</a> </p><p>The size of these numbers is daunting. In 2019, a year of particularly grievous trade imbalance, Afghanistan’s export earnings would have been sufficient to pay for no more than half of its bill for imports of mineral oil products and that would leave nothing to cover the rest of its needs. </p><p>Where do Afghanistan’s imports come from? </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3Uxq!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc95c615a-781d-499e-8a53-980dc418bc6b_1240x1006.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3Uxq!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc95c615a-781d-499e-8a53-980dc418bc6b_1240x1006.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3Uxq!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc95c615a-781d-499e-8a53-980dc418bc6b_1240x1006.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3Uxq!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc95c615a-781d-499e-8a53-980dc418bc6b_1240x1006.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3Uxq!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc95c615a-781d-499e-8a53-980dc418bc6b_1240x1006.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/c95c615a-781d-499e-8a53-980dc418bc6b_1240x1006.png" width="1240" height="1006" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/c95c615a-781d-499e-8a53-980dc418bc6b_1240x1006.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":1006,"width":1240,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":81687,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3Uxq!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc95c615a-781d-499e-8a53-980dc418bc6b_1240x1006.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3Uxq!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc95c615a-781d-499e-8a53-980dc418bc6b_1240x1006.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3Uxq!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc95c615a-781d-499e-8a53-980dc418bc6b_1240x1006.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!3Uxq!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc95c615a-781d-499e-8a53-980dc418bc6b_1240x1006.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Iran is, presumably, the main source of petroleum products. </p><p>Afghanistan’s Central Asian neighbors are critical as suppliers of food (flour) and electricity. 70 percent of Afghanistan’s electrical power is imported and the annual bill comes to around $270 million. Without that power, the lights literally go out. </p><p>In Afghanistan, where it has generally been too dangerous to conduct a door to door census, we estimate the pace of urban development by counting lightbulbs from space. Specks of light shining in the dark suggest that roughly 10 million people live in Afghanistan’s cities. </p><p>What foreign funds have been covering is the yawning gap between the foreign inputs to Afghanistan’s rapidly growing society and what it is able to pay for with its very limited exports of gold and agricultural produce. </p><p>Earlier this year the IMF prepared this estimate of Afghanistan’s foreign funding needs and how they would be met. </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RyNK!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff781f1cd-57fd-435c-ba71-9ec13a307efb_1240x1352.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RyNK!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff781f1cd-57fd-435c-ba71-9ec13a307efb_1240x1352.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RyNK!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff781f1cd-57fd-435c-ba71-9ec13a307efb_1240x1352.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RyNK!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff781f1cd-57fd-435c-ba71-9ec13a307efb_1240x1352.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RyNK!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff781f1cd-57fd-435c-ba71-9ec13a307efb_1240x1352.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f781f1cd-57fd-435c-ba71-9ec13a307efb_1240x1352.png" width="1240" height="1352" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/f781f1cd-57fd-435c-ba71-9ec13a307efb_1240x1352.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":1352,"width":1240,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":143544,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RyNK!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff781f1cd-57fd-435c-ba71-9ec13a307efb_1240x1352.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RyNK!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff781f1cd-57fd-435c-ba71-9ec13a307efb_1240x1352.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RyNK!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff781f1cd-57fd-435c-ba71-9ec13a307efb_1240x1352.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RyNK!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ff781f1cd-57fd-435c-ba71-9ec13a307efb_1240x1352.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>The key items in this balance are the current account deficit of $6290 m (in Afghanistan’s case largely identical with the trade deficit) and the official transfers (grants) of $7222 m. </p><p>If that $ 7 billion in funding is cut off, it will not be Taliban oppression alone, but a dramatic economic collapse that will bring life as Afghans have known it in recent years, to a halt. </p><p>What economists call a “sudden stop” can befall any economy heavily dependent on external funding to support a large trade deficit. “Export triumphalism” aside, this is in fact the main reason to worry about running a large trade deficit. A sudden stop can be extremely painful and destabilizing. It is the simplest way to think about the economic crisis that felled the Weimar Republic in the early 1930s. </p><p>This sudden stop is distinct from Afghanistan’s chronic poverty and the humanitarian crises triggered by civil conflict and drought of recent months. But though it may be distinct, the economic and financial crisis will interact with and compound those other problems.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{"url":"https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?","text":"Subscribe now","action":null,"class":null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p>One of the critical linkages is the exchange rate. Afghans, at least in the cities, are acutely aware of their country’s precarious financial situation. The banks have been closed for more than a week. Western Union has closed its offices, shutting off flows of remittances that normally account for 4 percent of Afghan GDP. The US authorities halted the last shipment of cash dollars to Afghanistan ten days ago and the outgoing central bank governor and his staff did their best to concentrate what currency they could lay their hands on in Kabul. The Afghani <a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/08/26/1031460312/the-taliban-controls-the-afghan-economy-now-what">banking system</a> will likely be subject to panic attacks. </p><p>The obvious precautionary response to a situation of impending doom is to sell Afghani and buy whatever dollars are to be had. The Afghani plunged on August 17. Since then it is not moved much. This is surprising. I imagine that not much currency trading is going on in Kabul right now. Certainly, one would expect further deterioration in months ahead. And if we can figure that out, so can the currency traders in Afghanistan. So, it may happen fast. </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!eVoE!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F477009bd-4833-4cf0-a4de-7388b4c29b57_1992x594.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!eVoE!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F477009bd-4833-4cf0-a4de-7388b4c29b57_1992x594.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!eVoE!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F477009bd-4833-4cf0-a4de-7388b4c29b57_1992x594.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!eVoE!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F477009bd-4833-4cf0-a4de-7388b4c29b57_1992x594.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!eVoE!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F477009bd-4833-4cf0-a4de-7388b4c29b57_1992x594.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/477009bd-4833-4cf0-a4de-7388b4c29b57_1992x594.png" width="1456" height="434" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/477009bd-4833-4cf0-a4de-7388b4c29b57_1992x594.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":434,"width":1456,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":156784,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!eVoE!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F477009bd-4833-4cf0-a4de-7388b4c29b57_1992x594.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!eVoE!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F477009bd-4833-4cf0-a4de-7388b4c29b57_1992x594.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!eVoE!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F477009bd-4833-4cf0-a4de-7388b4c29b57_1992x594.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!eVoE!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F477009bd-4833-4cf0-a4de-7388b4c29b57_1992x594.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Source: <a href="https://freecurrencyrates.com/en/exchange-rate-history/USD-AFN/2021">Free currency rates</a></p><p>A dramatic depreciation in the currency is an alarming prospect because it raises the price of imports and stokes inflation, unleashing a struggle for survival between more and less well-off Afghans. </p><p>Acute famines generally result from shortages of food triggering a scramble for necessities, speculation and spikes in food prices, which kill the poorest. Those are the elements we can already see at work in Afghanistan. </p><p>On <a href="https://www.savethechildren.net/news/afghanistan-price-hikes-push-food-out-reach-millions-children">August 26</a> the charity Save the Children reported the following figures for price increases from its staff in cities across the country.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LZ1N!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F07422f84-d8d9-4547-81c8-42fd23dcd3b5_1240x1462.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LZ1N!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F07422f84-d8d9-4547-81c8-42fd23dcd3b5_1240x1462.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LZ1N!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F07422f84-d8d9-4547-81c8-42fd23dcd3b5_1240x1462.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LZ1N!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F07422f84-d8d9-4547-81c8-42fd23dcd3b5_1240x1462.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LZ1N!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F07422f84-d8d9-4547-81c8-42fd23dcd3b5_1240x1462.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/07422f84-d8d9-4547-81c8-42fd23dcd3b5_1240x1462.png" width="1240" height="1462" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/07422f84-d8d9-4547-81c8-42fd23dcd3b5_1240x1462.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":1462,"width":1240,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":138999,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LZ1N!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F07422f84-d8d9-4547-81c8-42fd23dcd3b5_1240x1462.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LZ1N!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F07422f84-d8d9-4547-81c8-42fd23dcd3b5_1240x1462.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LZ1N!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F07422f84-d8d9-4547-81c8-42fd23dcd3b5_1240x1462.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!LZ1N!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F07422f84-d8d9-4547-81c8-42fd23dcd3b5_1240x1462.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>As the charity <a href="https://www.savethechildren.net/news/afghanistan-price-hikes-push-food-out-reach-millions-children">added</a>: “A survey of 630 newly displaced families in Kabul, carried out by Save the Children earlier this month, already found that all of the families had run up debts in order to buy food. Many families have been forced to sell their possessions, cut back on meals or send their children out to work in order to buy food.” </p><p>We should not say that we were not warned. These are the signs of a famine to come. </p><p>In a situation of acute food shortage, logistics are critical. Famine is normally concentrated in pockets. If food can be transported into the worst-affected areas, the suffering can be mitigated. In Afghanistan that depends on truck transport and truck transport depends on imported petroleum, which has to be paid for. </p><p>And here is the thing, Afghanistan, notionally, has the funds to tide it over. Its national currency reserve is listed at slightly over $ 9 billion. That is enough to cover its import bill for well over a year. But those reserves are not in Kabul. As departing central banker Ajmal Ahmady tweeted, the Taliban were shocked to discover that the funds were, in fact, disposed of as follows: </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BRuV!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd32b0c6f-4cef-41e4-b67d-27ae49515cea_1218x662.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BRuV!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd32b0c6f-4cef-41e4-b67d-27ae49515cea_1218x662.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BRuV!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd32b0c6f-4cef-41e4-b67d-27ae49515cea_1218x662.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BRuV!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd32b0c6f-4cef-41e4-b67d-27ae49515cea_1218x662.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BRuV!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd32b0c6f-4cef-41e4-b67d-27ae49515cea_1218x662.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d32b0c6f-4cef-41e4-b67d-27ae49515cea_1218x662.png" width="1218" height="662" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/d32b0c6f-4cef-41e4-b67d-27ae49515cea_1218x662.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":662,"width":1218,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":134964,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BRuV!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd32b0c6f-4cef-41e4-b67d-27ae49515cea_1218x662.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BRuV!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd32b0c6f-4cef-41e4-b67d-27ae49515cea_1218x662.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BRuV!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd32b0c6f-4cef-41e4-b67d-27ae49515cea_1218x662.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BRuV!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd32b0c6f-4cef-41e4-b67d-27ae49515cea_1218x662.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>As the Taliban seized Kabul, the US imposed a block on all of Afghanistan’s national reserves in the United States. The World Bank and the IMF have both stopped the disbursement of funds, as has the German aid agency, a major donor. </p><p>Worryingly, this was accompanied by a political campaign in Washington to deny “funds for the Taliban”. </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!kY3j!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F12684782-619e-4360-abc3-b11f0681e01b_1212x702.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!kY3j!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F12684782-619e-4360-abc3-b11f0681e01b_1212x702.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!kY3j!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F12684782-619e-4360-abc3-b11f0681e01b_1212x702.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!kY3j!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F12684782-619e-4360-abc3-b11f0681e01b_1212x702.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!kY3j!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F12684782-619e-4360-abc3-b11f0681e01b_1212x702.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/12684782-619e-4360-abc3-b11f0681e01b_1212x702.png" width="1212" height="702" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/12684782-619e-4360-abc3-b11f0681e01b_1212x702.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":702,"width":1212,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":193974,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!kY3j!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F12684782-619e-4360-abc3-b11f0681e01b_1212x702.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!kY3j!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F12684782-619e-4360-abc3-b11f0681e01b_1212x702.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!kY3j!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F12684782-619e-4360-abc3-b11f0681e01b_1212x702.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!kY3j!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F12684782-619e-4360-abc3-b11f0681e01b_1212x702.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>The <em>Wall Street Journal</em> has followed up with <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/imf-funding-for-the-taliban-janet-yellen-afghanistan-special-drawing-rights-11629923500">hawkish editorials</a> demanding that none of the IMF’s “funny money” should be made available to Kabul.</p><p>The United States is the last country in the world that should, at this moment, be taking the lead in securing Afghanistan’s survival. But someone must. What is needed is a multilateral financing package both to cover the immediate humanitarian crisis and Afghanistan’s acute import needs. The overwhelming majority of this should come in the form of grants. If loans are involved, the funds in the US Federal Reserve need not be released. They can serve as collateral for a funding scheme. But given Afghanistan’s trade position its ability to service international debt is extremely limited. </p><p>In light of Afghanistan’s immediate existential crisis, financial flows should not be thought of, first and foremost as a means of leverage. If that removes one more tool of influence from the arsenal of the Western powers, so be it. It is time to accept that we cannot impose our will on the situation and to focus, instead, on rescuing what can be rescued. </p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{"url":"https://adamtooze.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share","text":"Share Chartbook","action":null,"class":null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share"><span>Share Chartbook</span></a></p><p></p><p></p><!--
{
"post_id": "40669810.chartbook-top-link-16-the-afghan",
"post_date": "2021-09-03T15:00:17.439Z",
"is_published": true,
"email_sent_at": "2021-09-03T15:00:17.459Z",
"inbox_sent_at": "2021-09-03T15:00:17.459Z",
"type": "newsletter",
"audience": "only_paid",
"title": "Chartbook Top Link #16 The Afghan evacuation, the red scare in Germany and inventor crazybrains.",
"subtitle": "Good stuff for the weekend. "
}
-->
<p><strong>Welcome to Top Links #16 </strong></p><p>A bunch of interesting stuff for your first September weekend.</p><p>If you are enjoying the feed, why not share Chartbook with a friend?</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{"url":"https://adamtooze.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share","text":"Share Chartbook","action":null,"class":null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share"><span>Share Chartbook</span></a></p><p><strong>Final evacuation numbers from Kabul August 14-31 2021 </strong></p><p>I compiled various numbers on the Afghanistan evacuation. </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ewQ5!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F926027cf-36c9-4265-80e9-9fc5366049be_1038x966.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ewQ5!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F926027cf-36c9-4265-80e9-9fc5366049be_1038x966.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ewQ5!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F926027cf-36c9-4265-80e9-9fc5366049be_1038x966.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ewQ5!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F926027cf-36c9-4265-80e9-9fc5366049be_1038x966.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ewQ5!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F926027cf-36c9-4265-80e9-9fc5366049be_1038x966.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/926027cf-36c9-4265-80e9-9fc5366049be_1038x966.png" width="1038" height="966" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/926027cf-36c9-4265-80e9-9fc5366049be_1038x966.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":966,"width":1038,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":135339,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":false,"topImage":true,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ewQ5!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F926027cf-36c9-4265-80e9-9fc5366049be_1038x966.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ewQ5!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F926027cf-36c9-4265-80e9-9fc5366049be_1038x966.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ewQ5!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F926027cf-36c9-4265-80e9-9fc5366049be_1038x966.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ewQ5!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F926027cf-36c9-4265-80e9-9fc5366049be_1038x966.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p><strong>Lily Pads</strong></p><p>This from the <em><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/5811cf36-d941-4cf8-8f17-9f434e8627a8">FT</a></em> is great on the logistics of the evacuation and the role of the Civil Reserve Air Fleet, which dates to 1951. Mobilized because the US did not get “enough volunteers” from amongst the airlines. </p><p><strong>Graveyard of empires</strong></p><p>Alex Doherty and the great Timothy Nunan combine to bust historical clichés about Afghanistan. </p><div class="soundcloud-wrap" data-attrs="{"url":"https://api.soundcloud.com/tracks/1117735927","title":"The graveyard of empires, a second Vietnam - Timothy Nunan on the cliches of the war in Afghanistan by Politics Theory Other","description":"Timothy Nunan joins PTO to talk about the current situation in Afghanistan, the refugee crisis in the country, the US media discussion around the American withdrawal, and what descriptions of Afghanistan as 'a graveyard of empires' or a 'second Vietnam' obscures regarding the history of the country in the 20th and 21st centuries.","thumbnail_url":"https://i1.sndcdn.com/artworks-SbOyIaVh7i9oApJ7-Ybidbw-t500x500.jpg","author_name":"Politics Theory Other","author_url":"https://soundcloud.com/poltheoryother","targetUrl":""}" data-component-name="SoundcloudToDOM"><iframe src="https://w.soundcloud.com/player/?auto_play=false&buying=false&liking=false&download=false&sharing=false&show_artwork=true&show_comments=false&show_playcount=false&show_user=true&hide_related=true&visual=false&start_track=0&url=https%3A%2F%2Fapi.soundcloud.com%2Ftracks%2F1117735927" frameborder="0" gesture="media" scrolling="no" allowfullscreen="true"></iframe></div><p><a href="https://soundcloud.com/poltheoryother">Latest episode</a> of my favorite podcast. </p><p>It is based on an article by Timothy in <a href="https://www.noemamag.com/the-end-of-nation-building/">Noema magazine</a>. </p><p><strong>Red Scare Germany: </strong></p><p>Plunging in the polls, the christian democrats went over to the attack this week, summoning the ghost of a coalition between the SPD, Greens and the left-wing Die Linke.</p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CKAI!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9ff50e8c-df84-46d4-9978-859c3287ba72_1954x1154.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CKAI!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9ff50e8c-df84-46d4-9978-859c3287ba72_1954x1154.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CKAI!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9ff50e8c-df84-46d4-9978-859c3287ba72_1954x1154.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CKAI!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9ff50e8c-df84-46d4-9978-859c3287ba72_1954x1154.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CKAI!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9ff50e8c-df84-46d4-9978-859c3287ba72_1954x1154.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/9ff50e8c-df84-46d4-9978-859c3287ba72_1954x1154.png" width="1456" height="860" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/9ff50e8c-df84-46d4-9978-859c3287ba72_1954x1154.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":860,"width":1456,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":1285922,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CKAI!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9ff50e8c-df84-46d4-9978-859c3287ba72_1954x1154.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CKAI!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9ff50e8c-df84-46d4-9978-859c3287ba72_1954x1154.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CKAI!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9ff50e8c-df84-46d4-9978-859c3287ba72_1954x1154.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!CKAI!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9ff50e8c-df84-46d4-9978-859c3287ba72_1954x1154.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Just the chairman of Bavaria’s CSU telling voters that the right-wing social democrat Olaf Scholz wants to become Chancellor with the backing of the “Communists” of Die Linke. Don’t let anyone tell you modern German politics is all sweetness and light! </p><p><strong>“Tertiary distribution” or old-fashioned shakedown?</strong></p><p>In China, meanwhile, the talk is of “<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/c89594c1-1d85-4dda-9e67-55c775bd6c9a">tertiary distribution</a>” i.e. large-scale philanthropy by China’s billionaires. Its an idea Xi has been pushing.</p><p>As <a href="https://www.caixinglobal.com/2021-08-23/editorial-releasing-the-potential-of-tertiary-distribution-101758889.html">Caixin</a> notes:</p><p>“The tertiary distribution, a slightly unfamiliar phrase, has quickly become a question of public concern. On Aug. 17, the 10th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission was presided over by General Secretary Xi Jinping to focus on the issues concerning common prosperity. During the meeting, it was pointed out that “a basic institutional arrangement that coordinates the primary distribution, redistribution and tertiary distribution” should be built. The tertiary distribution is closely related to the advocacy that “encourages high-income individuals and enterprises to give more back to society,” which has become a hot topic in recent days.”</p><p><strong>A profound transformation is underway</strong></p><p>Alarmingly, the regime is giving the oxygen of propaganda to ever wilder forms of <a href="https://chinadigitaltimes.net/2021/08/translation-everyone-can-sense-that-a-profound-transformation-is-underway/">nationalism.</a> </p><p><strong>Young Thatcherite</strong> </p><p>In 1982, Jacob Rees-Mogg, arch-Tory Brexiteer, sometimes referred to as the "Honourable Member for the <em><strong>18th century</strong></em>", was the subject of a short documentary. It is as though Roald Dahl had set Charlie and the Chocolate factory in Thatcher’s Britain. Obviously he was only a kid at the tim, but what can one say …. </p><div data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM" class="tweet" data-attrs="{"url":"https://twitter.com/alexandreafonso/status/1431232326302937088","full_text":"Mind-blowing French footage of Jacob Rees-Mogg at 12, 1982.\n","username":"alexandreafonso","name":"alexandre afonso","date":"Fri Aug 27 12:29:12 +0000 2021","photos":[{"img_url":"https://cdn.substack.com/image/upload/w_728,c_limit/l_twitter_play_button_rvaygk,w_120/bcztrvdy7wyzedjsuky9","link_url":"https://t.co/vODavDmcfP","alt_text":null}],"quoted_tweet":{},"retweet_count":838,"like_count":2657,"expanded_url":{},"video_url":"https://video.twimg.com/amplify_video/1430464990667055108/vid/720x540/lEnR9xzxNHw_v7Ae.mp4?tag=14","belowTheFold":true}"><a class="tweet-link-top" href="https://twitter.com/alexandreafonso/status/1431232326302937088" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-header"><img class="tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/alexandreafonso.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @alexandreafonso" loading="lazy"><div class="tweet-header-text"><span class="tweet-author-name">alexandre afonso </span><span class="tweet-author-handle">@alexandreafonso</span></div></div><div class="tweet-text">Mind-blowing French footage of Jacob Rees-Mogg at 12, 1982.
</div></a><div class="tweet-video-wrapper"><video class="tweet-video" controls="true" src="https://video.twimg.com/amplify_video/1430464990667055108/vid/720x540/lEnR9xzxNHw_v7Ae.mp4?tag=14" alt="Video" loading="lazy"></video></div><a class="tweet-link-bottom" href="https://twitter.com/alexandreafonso/status/1431232326302937088" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-footer"><span class="tweet-date">12:29 PM ∙ Aug 27, 2021</span><hr><div class="tweet-ufi"><span href="https://twitter.com/alexandreafonso/status/1431232326302937088/likes" class="likes"><span class="like-count">2,657</span>Likes</span><span href="https://twitter.com/alexandreafonso/status/1431232326302937088/retweets" class="retweets"><span class="rt-count">838</span>Retweets</span></div></div></a></div><p><strong>Nina Simone’s collaborators</strong></p><div data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM" class="tweet" data-attrs="{"url":"https://twitter.com/klts0/status/1431541471958781956","full_text":"why did I stay up until 5am, you ask? well, I urgently needed to map out Nina Simone's Collaboration network. All the people she had a recording session with in red and all the people who had recording sessions with those folks in white. \n\ndata from the Jazz Discography ","username":"klts0","name":"Keletso Makofane, MPH, PhD","date":"Sat Aug 28 08:57:38 +0000 2021","photos":[{"img_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/media/E93a65SXoAIdkT8.jpg","link_url":"https://t.co/h5Dbf6zW9Y","alt_text":null}],"quoted_tweet":{},"retweet_count":27,"like_count":180,"expanded_url":{},"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":true}"><a class="tweet-link-top" href="https://twitter.com/klts0/status/1431541471958781956" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-header"><img class="tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/klts0.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @klts0" loading="lazy"><div class="tweet-header-text"><span class="tweet-author-name">Keletso Makofane, MPH, PhD </span><span class="tweet-author-handle">@klts0</span></div></div><div class="tweet-text">why did I stay up until 5am, you ask? well, I urgently needed to map out Nina Simone's Collaboration network. All the people she had a recording session with in red and all the people who had recording sessions with those folks in white.
data from the Jazz Discography </div><div class="tweet-photos-container one"><div class="tweet-photo-wrapper "><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!mRGq!,w_600,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FE93a65SXoAIdkT8.jpg"><img class="tweet-photo" src="https://pbs.substack.com/media/E93a65SXoAIdkT8.jpg" alt="Image" loading="lazy"></picture></div></div></a><a class="tweet-link-bottom" href="https://twitter.com/klts0/status/1431541471958781956" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-footer"><span class="tweet-date">8:57 AM ∙ Aug 28, 2021</span><hr><div class="tweet-ufi"><span href="https://twitter.com/klts0/status/1431541471958781956/likes" class="likes"><span class="like-count">180</span>Likes</span><span href="https://twitter.com/klts0/status/1431541471958781956/retweets" class="retweets"><span class="rt-count">27</span>Retweets</span></div></div></a></div><p><strong>Kenyan history in pictures</strong></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dEsB!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc5926f77-a438-42ff-942c-37434573d4d0_1216x1006.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dEsB!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc5926f77-a438-42ff-942c-37434573d4d0_1216x1006.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dEsB!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc5926f77-a438-42ff-942c-37434573d4d0_1216x1006.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dEsB!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc5926f77-a438-42ff-942c-37434573d4d0_1216x1006.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dEsB!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc5926f77-a438-42ff-942c-37434573d4d0_1216x1006.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/c5926f77-a438-42ff-942c-37434573d4d0_1216x1006.png" width="1216" height="1006" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/c5926f77-a438-42ff-942c-37434573d4d0_1216x1006.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":1006,"width":1216,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":712499,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dEsB!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc5926f77-a438-42ff-942c-37434573d4d0_1216x1006.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dEsB!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc5926f77-a438-42ff-942c-37434573d4d0_1216x1006.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dEsB!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc5926f77-a438-42ff-942c-37434573d4d0_1216x1006.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!dEsB!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc5926f77-a438-42ff-942c-37434573d4d0_1216x1006.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p><strong>George Orwell’s widow, the CIA and the rights to Animal Farm</strong></p><div data-component-name="Twitter2ToDOM" class="tweet" data-attrs="{"url":"https://twitter.com/SpiesVespers/status/1427584196286029825","full_text":"As part of deal for rights to <span class=\"tweet-fake-link\">#Animal_Farm</span>, <span class=\"tweet-fake-link\">#CIA</span> promised <span class=\"tweet-fake-link\">#George_Orwell</span>’s widow to introduce her to <span class=\"tweet-fake-link\">#Clark_Gable</span>. ","username":"SpiesVespers","name":"SPIES&VESPERS","date":"Tue Aug 17 10:52:50 +0000 2021","photos":[{"img_url":"https://pbs.substack.com/media/E8_MP-YWQAA5R34.jpg","link_url":"https://t.co/exaaQJQFVH","alt_text":null}],"quoted_tweet":{},"retweet_count":0,"like_count":0,"expanded_url":{},"video_url":null,"belowTheFold":true}"><a class="tweet-link-top" href="https://twitter.com/SpiesVespers/status/1427584196286029825" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-header"><img class="tweet-header-avatar" src="https://substackcdn.com/image/twitter_name/w_96/SpiesVespers.jpg" alt="Twitter avatar for @SpiesVespers" loading="lazy"><div class="tweet-header-text"><span class="tweet-author-name">SPIES&VESPERS </span><span class="tweet-author-handle">@SpiesVespers</span></div></div><div class="tweet-text">As part of deal for rights to <span class="tweet-fake-link">#Animal_Farm</span>, <span class="tweet-fake-link">#CIA</span> promised <span class="tweet-fake-link">#George_Orwell</span>’s widow to introduce her to <span class="tweet-fake-link">#Clark_Gable</span>. </div><div class="tweet-photos-container one"><div class="tweet-photo-wrapper "><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!mtRB!,w_600,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.substack.com%2Fmedia%2FE8_MP-YWQAA5R34.jpg"><img class="tweet-photo" src="https://pbs.substack.com/media/E8_MP-YWQAA5R34.jpg" alt="Image" loading="lazy"></picture></div></div></a><a class="tweet-link-bottom" href="https://twitter.com/SpiesVespers/status/1427584196286029825" target="_blank"><div class="tweet-footer"><span class="tweet-date">10:52 AM ∙ Aug 17, 2021</span></div></a></div><p><strong>Cold War Conversations</strong></p><p>These are great conversational podcasts on all things <a href="https://coldwarconversations.com/episodes/">Cold War</a>. </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!yq2y!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2c1c693b-4060-4a42-ae30-bdf695ecd2f1_1168x1278.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!yq2y!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2c1c693b-4060-4a42-ae30-bdf695ecd2f1_1168x1278.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!yq2y!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2c1c693b-4060-4a42-ae30-bdf695ecd2f1_1168x1278.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!yq2y!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2c1c693b-4060-4a42-ae30-bdf695ecd2f1_1168x1278.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!yq2y!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2c1c693b-4060-4a42-ae30-bdf695ecd2f1_1168x1278.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/2c1c693b-4060-4a42-ae30-bdf695ecd2f1_1168x1278.png" width="1168" height="1278" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/2c1c693b-4060-4a42-ae30-bdf695ecd2f1_1168x1278.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":1278,"width":1168,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":240381,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!yq2y!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2c1c693b-4060-4a42-ae30-bdf695ecd2f1_1168x1278.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!yq2y!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2c1c693b-4060-4a42-ae30-bdf695ecd2f1_1168x1278.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!yq2y!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2c1c693b-4060-4a42-ae30-bdf695ecd2f1_1168x1278.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!yq2y!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2c1c693b-4060-4a42-ae30-bdf695ecd2f1_1168x1278.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p><strong>Inventor Crazybrains</strong></p><p><em><strong>Le Dirigeable fantastique ou le Cauchemar d'un inventeur</strong></em>, released in the US as <em><strong>The Inventor Crazybrains and His Wonderful Airship</strong></em> and in the UK as <em><strong>Fantastical Air Ship</strong></em>, is a 1905 French short silent film directed by <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georges_M%C3%A9li%C3%A8s" title="Georges Méliès">Georges Méliès</a>. </p><p>What can I say, I just the love the English title. </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RzRY!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8b0a7e13-b6aa-4e03-86be-5b4387b701bb_1516x1164.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RzRY!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8b0a7e13-b6aa-4e03-86be-5b4387b701bb_1516x1164.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RzRY!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8b0a7e13-b6aa-4e03-86be-5b4387b701bb_1516x1164.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RzRY!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8b0a7e13-b6aa-4e03-86be-5b4387b701bb_1516x1164.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RzRY!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8b0a7e13-b6aa-4e03-86be-5b4387b701bb_1516x1164.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/8b0a7e13-b6aa-4e03-86be-5b4387b701bb_1516x1164.png" width="1456" height="1118" data-attrs="{"src":"https://bucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/8b0a7e13-b6aa-4e03-86be-5b4387b701bb_1516x1164.png","srcNoWatermark":null,"fullscreen":null,"imageSize":null,"height":1118,"width":1456,"resizeWidth":null,"bytes":1577381,"alt":null,"title":null,"type":"image/png","href":null,"belowTheFold":true,"topImage":false,"internalRedirect":null,"isProcessing":false,"align":null,"offset":false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RzRY!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8b0a7e13-b6aa-4e03-86be-5b4387b701bb_1516x1164.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RzRY!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8b0a7e13-b6aa-4e03-86be-5b4387b701bb_1516x1164.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RzRY!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8b0a7e13-b6aa-4e03-86be-5b4387b701bb_1516x1164.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!RzRY!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8b0a7e13-b6aa-4e03-86be-5b4387b701bb_1516x1164.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container restack-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-refresh-cw"><path d="M3 12a9 9 0 0 1 9-9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1 6.74 2.74L21 8"></path><path d="M21 3v5h-5"></path><path d="M21 12a9 9 0 0 1-9 9 9.75 9.75 0 0 1-6.74-2.74L3 16"></path><path d="M8 16H3v5"></path></svg></div><div class="pencraft pc-reset icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></div></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{"url":"https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?&gift=true","text":"Give a gift subscription","action":null,"class":null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://adamtooze.substack.com/subscribe?&gift=true"><span>Give a gift subscription</span></a></p><p></p>No children (leaf entity)