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Approved for Release: 2020/08/11 C02000171 today that Fidel Castro intends to save his Cuba by launching a simultaneous air-ground attack on Guatanamo Naval Base before the Kennedy inauguration, claiming publicly that the US initiated the action. The Cuban ambassador in Prague, who reportedly has been very nervous in the past few days, allegedly left by air for England today, ostensibly in response to a British Council invitation to his wife to inspect the English school system." Members of the Watch Committee of the USIB have individually examined the above report and have evaluated it as probably false. In reaching this evaluation, the committee members note that the Mexican ambassador, who professed to have gotten the report from a Czech official, is notoriously unreliable. In any event, the Cuban first secretary would be unlikely to have been informed of such an operation plan by his government. Moreover, Castro is not considered to have the capability, at least in the air, to succeed in such an operation, and a failure of this order would have disastrous consequences for the Castro regime. It is unlikely that the Soviets, whose advice would have some weight with Castro, would favor such a course of action in view of their current professed conciliatory policy toward the President-elect. The Soviets would probably estimate that an attack on Guantanamo would result in the defeat of the Cubans at the hands of the US and would show up their own unwillingness to honor their vaguely worded promises of military support for Cuba.* The Committee members further note that the report may possibly reflect an attempt by bloc elements to cause reactions in US armed forces whose nature would support the internal Cuban tension-building propaganda that a US invasion of Cuba is imminent. There is no information from other sources to corroborate this report. Nevertheless, the possibility of military action against Guantanamo by Castro, given his rashness and instability, cannot be completely discounted. *The Assistant Chief of Staff for Intelligence, Department of the Army, would omit this sentence for the reason that it is estimative in nature and thus beyond the purview of the Watch charter. 10 Jan 61 DAILY BRIEF iv Approved for Release: 2020/08/11 C02000171

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